The Ja'Marr Chase Thread

[Shake n Blake]

(12-21-2021, 01:54 AM)Benton Wrote: Yeah, unfair to label him a bust. But a far cry from the start of the season. If we're looking at sub-1000 seasons for single digit touchdowns, then meh. He's gone from being someone entertaining to watch to 'oh, that guy.'

From '98 Randy Moss to 2010 Jordan Shipley.

Except Shipley was more efficient with his targets (and fewer TDs to be fair).

[Big_Ern]

(12-21-2021, 12:20 AM)Shake n Blake Wrote: 6 of the last 7.

Over his last 7 games, he's produced a statline of 26-284-4 on 51 targets.

This is a pace of 63-690-9 for a full season...which honestly still wouldn't be bad for a rookie WR. That said, we're still targeting him like he's great, and he hasn't been lately.

Burrow is only completing 51.0% of his throws targeting Chase, for a paltry 5.57 per attempt. Chase is struggling, and there's no way around that.

The bust word is ridiculous right now. He was balling out in the first 7, and just hit some kind of wall. I expect him to climb out at some point, but it's taking longer than I thought. Long enough that worry is 100% valid.

Is said bust drawing constant double teams and freeing up other options?

[TecmoBengals]

(12-21-2021, 01:54 AM)Benton Wrote: He's gone from being someone entertaining to watch to 'oh, that guy.'

Sigh. Sadly, I agree with you. Chase has had an exceptional rookie year especially for a 21 year old WR. That established, the explosiveness as the 'go to' guy that teams cannot stop from the early games has diminished as the season has progressed. 

Is it a Chase problem? Burrow forcing the ball to Chase problem? Opposing defenses willing to let anyone but Chase beat them issue? Zac and coaches not adapting to put Chase in a position to succeed? I'm not identifying the cause when I watch games. Maybe it's many factors combined. 

Anyhow, your point is taken. He's just another WR on the field now and not a dominating presence. Good thing, he's only 21, is a rookie, and there is time to get him back to the elite performances. I hope he becomes a Jerry Rice or Randy Moss dominant type of WR.

[KillerGoose]

(12-21-2021, 08:50 AM)Big_Ern Wrote: Is said bust drawing constant double teams and freeing up other options?

Not really, at least not for Denver. I am working through the All-22 at the moment and Denver hasn't double Chase much - I have counted four instances of a double or bracket, but he was singled up or met with normal zone coverage for many of these plays. I haven't gone through all of the game, and this is really the only week I am paying attention since you asked this, but not much in Denver so far. 

[TecmoBengals]

(12-21-2021, 11:38 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: Not really, at least not for Denver. I am working through the All-22 at the moment and Denver hasn't double Chase much - I have counted four instances of a double or bracket, but he was singled up or met with normal zone coverage for many of these plays. I haven't gone through all of the game, and this is really the only week I am paying attention since you asked this, but not much in Denver so far. 

The All-22? Educate me!

[KillerGoose]

(12-21-2021, 11:39 AM)TecmoBengals Wrote: The All-22? Educate me!

You have to pay for it, but NFL Gamepass allows you to watch the film that coaches see, so it looks like
this...



and this...



Really great for learning more about coverages, playcalls and what everything looks like. For instance, if someone complains about ZT not attacking the middle of the field, you can just watch the tape and see plenty of routes over the middle of the field, but Burrow didn't throw them. It provides a lot more context. Also great for watching linemen play.

[TecmoBengals]

Oh nice, I didn't realize that was even possible. Thank you for the heads up. I'm sure it would be fun to watch especially if you're an Xs & Os junkie or even coach at any level.

[Big_Ern]

(12-21-2021, 11:38 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: Not really, at least not for Denver. I am working through the All-22 at the moment and Denver hasn't double Chase much - I have counted four instances of a double or bracket, but he was singled up or met with normal zone coverage for many of these plays. I haven't gone through all of the game, and this is really the only week I am paying attention since you asked this, but not much in Denver so far. 

I know he has been in most games, I believe a week or two ago I saw he was the highest-rated receiver in man coverage.  He also had a 40 yard connection called back by a holding call.  Denver played a certain coverage with almost 3 safeties that was effective and has great DBs 

[*PhilHos*]

(12-21-2021, 12:20 AM)Shake n Blake Wrote: He was balling out in the first 7, and just hit some kind of wall. 

Don't rookies usually hit "the" wall? Like NFL seasons are longer than college and thus they hit a point where their production kind of drops because of the rookie wall?

Also, let's not forget that in addition to that, Chase didn't play football for over a year before this season. Couple that with defenses double teaming him and whatnot and I don't think it's THAT surprising he's gone from ROtY to just 'average rookie WR'. I mean, hopefully, he overcomes all those on our Super Bowl run this year, but, like you said, definitely not a bust.

[Fan_in_Kettering]

Early in the season Ja’Marr Chase was absolutely tearing it up which was wonderful for the Bengals. Now defenses are double teaming him which frees up Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins. This is also good for the Bengals.

[Shake n Blake]

(12-21-2021, 08:50 AM)Big_Ern Wrote: Is said bust drawing constant double teams and freeing up other options?

I didn't call him a bust, and no, apparently he isn't.

(12-21-2021, 01:01 PM)PhilHos Wrote: Don't rookies usually hit "the" wall? Like NFL seasons are longer than college and thus they hit a point where their production kind of drops because of the rookie wall?

Also, let's not forget that in addition to that, Chase didn't play football for over a year before this season. Couple that with defenses double teaming him and whatnot and I don't think it's THAT surprising he's gone from ROtY to just 'average rookie WR'. I mean, hopefully, he overcomes all those on our Super Bowl run this year, but, like you said, definitely not a bust.

It's possible its a combo of all these things, although probably not so much with the rookie wall, as this started happening after only 7 games. My guess is that teams figured out how to cover Chase (not necessarily just double coverage), and he's yet to adjust.

Tbh, I don't care if he's being doubled. He needs to beat double. Chad did. AJ did. It's part of being a top tier WR, which is what we should expect of the #4 overall pick. That said, he's young. This may take time.

[Big_Ern]

(12-21-2021, 03:43 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: I didn't call him a bust, and no, apparently he isn't.

So Chase is lying when he said he's been getting cloud coverage lately ?

He isn't coming off a 2 and almost 3 TD game from the niners?  

[Shake n Blake]

(12-21-2021, 05:17 PM)Big_Ern Wrote: So Chase is lying when he said he's been getting cloud coverage lately ?

He isn't coming off a 2 and almost 3 TD game from the niners?  

That was his only good game of the last 7.

As far as the double coverage, I'm going off of what KillerGoose said about the all-22 footage from this week. Also, see what I said to Phil about double coverage. Even if he's seeing it, he needs to beat it if he wants to be a true #1.

I think I'm being pretty fair and reasonable here.

[Big_Ern]

(12-21-2021, 07:46 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: That was his only good game of the last 7.

As far as the double coverage, I'm going off of what KillerGoose said about the all-22 footage from this week. Also, see what I said to Phil about double coverage. Even if he's seeing it, he needs to beat it if he wants to be a true #1.

I think I'm being pretty fair and reasonable here.

He's seen plenty of cloud coverage in the past seven weeks. Burrow is the top rated qb via pff and chase drawing cloud and having other good targets is a reason for this 

[Nicomo Cosca]

(12-21-2021, 09:40 PM)Big_Ern Wrote: He's seen plenty of cloud coverage in the past seven weeks. Burrow is the top rated qb via pff and chase drawing cloud and having other good targets is a reason for this 

He’s also had 4 TD’s during those 7 weeks. He might not be stretching the field like he was earlier in the season (partly due to a couple bad drops), but he’s still scoring at a much higher rate than the rest of the top rookie WR’s (and Pitts). Chase has as many TD’s during his “slump” as guys like Waddle and Smith have all season…

[Shake n Blake]

(12-21-2021, 09:40 PM)Big_Ern Wrote: He's seen plenty of cloud coverage in the past seven weeks. Burrow is the top rated qb via pff and chase drawing cloud and having other good targets is a reason for this 

If our passing game had been torching people over the last 7 weeks, I could get behind the narrative that Chase drawing coverage is having some kind of major impact...but we're not torching anyone.

Over the last 7, Burrow has a passer rating of 93.0, which would rank 18th in the league. His stats would be similar to last year.

2020:
264-404-2688-13-5 (89.8 rating)

2021 slump stretched to 404 attempts:
277-404-3050-16-11 (93.0 rating)

Not much difference. We need Chase out there making plays. That's why we drafted him. Not to be a high priced decoy.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(12-21-2021, 10:42 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: If our passing game had been torching people over the last 7 weeks, I could get behind the narrative that Chase drawing coverage is having some kind of major impact...but we're not torching anyone.

Over the last 7, Burrow has a passer rating of 93.0, which would rank 18th in the league. His stats would be similar to last year.

2020:
264-404-2688-13-5 (89.8 rating)

2021 stretched to 404 attempts:
277-404-3050-16-11 (93.0 rating)

Not much difference. We need Chase out there making plays. That's why we drafted him. Not to be a high priced decoy.

Tee literally had 3 straight 100+ yard games…

I’m sure he’d be the first to admit that Chase drawing so much attention makes things easier on him.

[Shake n Blake]

(12-21-2021, 10:48 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Tee literally had 3 straight 100+ yard games…

I’m sure he’d be the first to admit that Chase drawing so much attention makes things easier on him.

One guy having success does not = our passing game has been great.

Also, people weren't pining for Chase so he could be a decoy.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(12-21-2021, 10:57 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: One guy having success does not = our passing game has been great.

Also, people weren't pining for Chase so he could be a decoy.

Ofc we want him to be more than just a decoy. But other than the Denver game (and even in that one he had a 42 yard catch wiped out because of a borderline holding penalty on Spain), it’s mostly been self inflicted issues. For example if he catches that 2nd TD against the Jets, or takes that deep ball to the house against LA I doubt we’re sitting arguing about a slump. Burrow also overthrew him a hair on a deep ball against Cleveland where Chase had a step on Greg Newsome.

The Broncos are really the only team that have been able to completely shut him down (and they also did it to Tee to their credit). A lot of the other games Chase has gotten open, he’s just left plays on the field because of the drops. Which should be much easier to clean up than just simply not being able to beat certain coverages.

[Shake n Blake]

(12-21-2021, 11:20 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Ofc we want him to be more than just a decoy. But other than the Denver game (and even in that one he had a 42 yard catch wiped out because of a borderline holding penalty on Spain), it’s mostly been self inflicted issues. For example if he catches that 2nd TD against the Jets, or takes that deep ball to the house against LA I doubt we’re sitting arguing about a slump. Burrow also overthrew him a hair on a deep ball against Cleveland where Chase had a step on Greg Newsome.

The Broncos are really the only team that have been able to completely shut him down (and they also did it to Tee to their credit). A lot of the other games Chase has gotten open, he’s just left plays on the field because of the drops. Which should be much easier to clean up than just simply not being able to beat certain coverages.

All of this may be true, but all we have are a lot of if's, and's or butt's over the last 7 weeks. The coverage is a factor, drops are a factor, some bad luck as well. I just want to see that explosiveness again.

Imagine the true potential of this team if you add even half the amount of explosive plays we saw in weeks 1-7. I think when you remove that to the extent we've seen in this half of the season, it takes us from being a Super Bowl caliber squad, to a fringe playoff team.