Bengals in middle of AFC insanity

[fredtoast]

I have never seen anything like this before. 13 of the 16 teams in the AFC are at .500 or better with 3 games left. And with 8 wins enough to get in the top 7 right now that means every one of those teams have a legit shot at a playoff spot. If we lose and start needing help from other teams it will be crazy trying to keep track of who to root for every week.

Every team in both the AFCN and AFCW are at .500 or better, and 10 of our 17 games this year are against those teams. 3 of our other opponents are also at .500 or better (Min, GB, SF). So right now that projects to 13 of our 17 games being against teams .500 or better.

So what can we look at to rank all these teams bunched together with 7 or 8 wins?

Bengals are 5th (out of 16) in AFC in scoring, 10th in points allowed, and 5th in point differential (+66) behind the Bills (+151), Patriots (+140), Colts (+98), and Chiefs (+89).

The Titans have by far the best record against teams with winning records at 6-3. After them 3 teams are 3-3 (Bengals, Patriots, Ravens). No other team has more than 3 wins and are all under .500 against winning teams.

[fredtoast]

In depth look at our defense.

Bengals are middle of the pack in many areas. They are almost dead on league average allowing 4840 total yds (4856 avg) and 5.4 yards per play (5.4 avg).  They are 16th in percentage of drives they end with a turnover, 17th in third down conversions rate and 15th in Red zone td percentage.

They are very good at stopping the run (4th in yds/game, 7th rush tds, 10th yds/att).

They give up a lot of passing yards (26th), but they are 16th in pass efficiency rating.  I don't understand all the new stats for pass rushing.  The Bengals are 8th in sack percentage, but much lower in "hurry percentage" (15th), "pressure percentage" (15th) and "quarterback knockdown percentage" (22nd).  All I know is that the pass rush seems solid this year.  The jets game seemed like something from the twilight zone.  I still do not understand what happened there.

Overall it adds up to the number 11 scoring defense.  And points are what it is all about.

I say the numbers back up my overall impression.  I think we are good against the run and we get a good pass rush mostly from our d-line.  But we have some problems in coverage.  Hard to tell if it is players or coaching, but with the pass rush we get we should not give up as many passing yards as we do.

[Clark W Griswold]

Yeah the only time I know who to root for is when an AFC team plays an NFC team.
I know today I am rooting for Green Bay (that we close but they won) and the Cardinals.

The rest I guess just pull for the team with the fewest wins. Not sure about these Cleveland vs Pittsburgh vs Baltimore games.
I don’t know all of the possible scenarios but if the Bengals beat Baltimore and Cleveland then they will win the division (right?)

[*Awful Llama*]

(12-25-2021, 11:17 PM)Clark W Griswold Wrote: Yeah the only time I know who to root for is when an AFC team plays an NFC team.
I know today I am rooting for Green Bay (that we close but they won) and the Cardinals.

The rest I guess just pull for the team with the fewest wins. Not sure about these Cleveland vs Pittsburgh vs Baltimore games.  
I don’t know all of the possible scenarios but if the Bengals beat Baltimore and Cleveland then they will win the division (right?)

If we beat Baltimore and win one game from our last two, we still need the Steelers to lose one of their final three games.  If all that happens, we are division champs.  Cleveland can't get to 10 wins after tonight's loss, and if we beat Baltimore and finish 10-7 they could only tie us, and we will have swept them.  If the Steelers lose one of the three, then they can only get to 9-7-1 at best.

So, the quickest way for us to win the division is:


- We beat Baltimore tomorrow
- KC beats Pitt tomorrow
- We beat KC next week

Then we rest our players up in Cleveland on 1/9, and they can just sit on the bench and watch the polar bears chase seals out on Lake Erie.

[WVUHomer]

(12-25-2021, 11:33 PM)Awful Llama Wrote: If we beat Baltimore and win one game from our last two, we still need the Steelers to lose one of their final three games.  If all that happens, we are division champs.  Cleveland can't get to 10 wins after tonight's loss, and if we beat Baltimore and finish 10-7 they could only tie us, and we will have swept them.  If the Steelers lose one of the three, then they can only get to 9-7-1 at best.

So, the quickest way for us to win the division is:


- We beat Baltimore tomorrow
- KC beats Pitt tomorrow
- We beat KC next week

Then we rest our players up in Cleveland on 1/9, and they can just sit on the bench and watch the polar bears chase seals out on Lake Erie.

While I would rest the players, I feel like Cincy would play Cle to:
A. Remove them from the playoffs (if not already eliminated)
B. MB personal grudge
C. Higher playoff seating.


I could understand the justification of playoff seating but I don't think its necessary, especially since we do better (for the most part) on the road this season.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

I highly doubt we beat KC.

Beat Baltimore & hope the Browns are already eliminated by the last game.

[*Awful Llama*]

(12-26-2021, 12:01 AM)WVUHomer Wrote: While I would rest the players, I feel like Cincy would play Cle to:
A. Remove them from the playoffs (if not already eliminated)
B. MB personal grudge
C. Higher playoff seating.


I could understand the justification of playoff seating but I don't think its necessary, especially since we do better (for the most part) on the road this season.

I would hope we would not risk the health of our players on the eve of our first playoff game in six years just so Mike could try to settle a nearly 60-year-old grudge.  That team doesn't exist anymore, and the architect of Paul's humiliation long lies moldering in the grave.  But who knows what goes through Mike's noggin.  

No matter who we draw in the first round, be it the Colts or Chargers, it won't be an easy out.  And, we're not getting the bye anyway, so seeding means very little to my way of thinking.  And, the teams above us could simply win and keep us in the #4 spot anyway.

No, the only valid reason might be to ensure that the Browns do not get a WC berth.  And, maybe that's just superstition on my part.  We held the door open for the Jets in 2009 and look what that got us.  

[KillerGoose]

(12-25-2021, 11:02 PM)fredtoast Wrote: In depth look at our defense.

Bengals are middle of the pack in many areas. They are almost dead on league average allowing 4840 total yds (4856 avg) and 5.4 yards per play (5.4 avg).  They are 16th in percentage of drives they end with a turnover, 17th in third down conversions rate and 15th in Red zone td percentage.

They are very good at stopping the run (4th in yds/game, 7th rush tds, 10th yds/att).

They give up a lot of passing yards (26th), but they are 16th in pass efficiency rating.  I don't understand all the new stats for pass rushing.  The Bengals are 8th in sack percentage, but much lower in "hurry percentage" (15th), "pressure percentage" (15th) and "quarterback knockdown percentage" (22nd).  All I know is that the pass rush seems solid this year.  The jets game seemed like something from the twilight zone.  I still do not understand what happened there.

Overall it adds up to the number 11 scoring defense.  And points are what it is all about.

I say the numbers back up my overall impression.  I think we are good against the run and we get a good pass rush mostly from our d-line.  But we have some problems in coverage.  Hard to tell if it is players or coaching, but with the pass rush we get we should not give up as many passing yards as we do.

Here are the PFR definitions for the stats you put into quotes, assuming those are the new pass-rush stats you aren't familiar with. 

QB Knockdown Percentage - Knockdowns per pass attempt


Pressure Percentage - QB pressures (hurries + knockdowns + all sack plays (half and full for players, just full sacks for teams)) per dropback


Hurry Percentage - QB hurries per dropback


Sometimes a big discrepancy between sack % and pressure % can indicate that your sacks are going to start falling off eventually because you are converting an unusually high amount of pressures into sacks. I haven't studied this much and have no idea if that is the case for us. 

[Shake n Blake]

Not sure if everyone is good and beating up on each other, or if everyone is mediocre and no one is standing out. If we get a ring, I won't care which one it is.

[Murdock2420]

(12-26-2021, 12:44 AM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Not sure if everyone is good and beating up on each other, or if everyone is mediocre and no one is standing out. If we get a ring, I won't care which one it is.

I agree, a Super Bowl win would take away all the offseason drama about the draft and the front office and the coaching and etc. 

That said, while I think the AFC is such a shitshow and anyone can win, the NFC is really top heavy and Green Bay looks legit.

[Shake n Blake]

(12-26-2021, 12:55 AM)Murdock2420 Wrote: I agree, a Super Bowl win would take away all the offseason drama about the draft and the front office and the coaching and etc. 

That said, while I think the AFC is such a shitshow and anyone can win, the NFC is really top heavy and Green Bay looks legit.

Agreed. Can't count out Tampa, either. I'm sure they'll be pretty dominant vome playoff time.

[Tony]

(12-25-2021, 11:33 PM)Awful Llama Wrote: If we beat Baltimore and win one game from our last two, we still need the Steelers to lose one of their final three games.  If all that happens, we are division champs.  Cleveland can't get to 10 wins after tonight's loss, and if we beat Baltimore and finish 10-7 they could only tie us, and we will have swept them.  If the Steelers lose one of the three, then they can only get to 9-7-1 at best.

So, the quickest way for us to win the division is:


- We beat Baltimore tomorrow
- KC beats Pitt tomorrow
- We beat KC next week

Then we rest our players up in Cleveland on 1/9, and they can just sit on the bench and watch the polar bears chase seals out on Lake Erie.

Let's be real here.. Pissburgh ain't getting in. No way in hell they beat KC..

[Tony]

(12-26-2021, 12:55 AM)Murdock2420 Wrote: I agree, a Super Bowl win would take away all the offseason drama about the draft and the front office and the coaching and etc. 

That said, while I think the AFC is such a shitshow and anyone can win, the NFC is really top heavy and Green Bay looks legit.

Green Bay defense is horrid the last 2 weeks.. They are lucky Baker turned it over 4 times..

[Murdock2420]

(12-26-2021, 01:05 AM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Agreed. Can't count out Tampa, either. I'm sure they'll be pretty dominant vome playoff time.

If they get healthy. Godwin out and Evans out could hold them back.

[Murdock2420]

(12-26-2021, 01:18 AM)Tony Wrote: Green Bay defense is horrid the last 2 weeks.. They are lucky Baker turned it over 4 times..

They haven't been great but they still have A-Aron.

[Nati#1]

HAVE TO BEAT THE RAVENS AND THERE 3rd STRING QB JOSH JOHNSON.. THIS IS A MUST WIN WE HAVE TO COME TO PLAY AND CANNOT LET THIS ONE SLIDE LIKE THE JETS

[StoneTheCrow]

(12-26-2021, 01:16 AM)Tony Wrote: Let's be real here.. Pissburgh ain't getting in. No way in hell they beat KC..

Oh sweet summer child

[WiregrassBenGal]

(12-26-2021, 12:10 AM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: I highly doubt we beat KC.  

Beat Baltimore & hope the Browns are already eliminated by the last game.

Chiefs are beatable. Also, I will be in Wilmington that day and the last time I was there the Bengals beat the tar out of the Ravens in Baltimore.

[BengalYankee]

(12-25-2021, 09:01 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I have never seen anything like this before.  13 of the 16 teams in the AFC are at .500 or better with 3 games left.  And with 8 wins enough to get in the top 7 right now that means every one of those teams have a legit shot at a playoff spot.  If we lose and start needing help from other teams it will be crazy trying to keep track of who to root for every week.

Every team in both the AFCN and AFCW are at .500 or better, and 10 of our 17 games this year are against those teams. 3 of our other opponents are also at .500 or better (Min, GB, SF).  So right now that projects to 13 of our 17 games being against teams .500 or better.

So what can we look at to rank all these teams bunched together with 7 or 8 wins?

Bengals are 5th (out of 16) in AFC in scoring, 10th in points allowed, and 5th in point differential (+66) behind the Bills (+151), Patriots (+140), Colts (+98), and Chiefs (+89).

The Titans have by far the best record against teams with winning records at 6-3.  After them 3 teams are 3-3 (Bengals, Patriots, Ravens).  No other team has more than 3 wins and are all under .500 against winning teams.

Um, Counselor, the Browns are below .500. 

[*SHRacerX*]

(12-25-2021, 11:02 PM)fredtoast Wrote: In depth look at our defense.

Bengals are middle of the pack in many areas. They are almost dead on league average allowing 4840 total yds (4856 avg) and 5.4 yards per play (5.4 avg).  They are 16th in percentage of drives they end with a turnover, 17th in third down conversions rate and 15th in Red zone td percentage.

They are very good at stopping the run (4th in yds/game, 7th rush tds, 10th yds/att).

They give up a lot of passing yards (26th), but they are 16th in pass efficiency rating.  I don't understand all the new stats for pass rushing.  The Bengals are 8th in sack percentage, but much lower in "hurry percentage" (15th), "pressure percentage" (15th) and "quarterback knockdown percentage" (22nd).  All I know is that the pass rush seems solid this year.  The jets game seemed like something from the twilight zone.  I still do not understand what happened there.

Overall it adds up to the number 11 scoring defense.  And points are what it is all about.

I say the numbers back up my overall impression.  I think we are good against the run and we get a good pass rush mostly from our d-line.  But we have some problems in coverage.  Hard to tell if it is players or coaching, but with the pass rush we get we should not give up as many passing yards as we do.

NOT asking you to do this, bud, but it would be really cool to see a graph with these numbers plotted week by week.  I think the pass defense numbers suffered massively early on with Apple getting so much playing time after being a back up for so long....although I credit the coaches for having him develop in to a solid option.

The three game road trip hurt them massively as well.  Really, outside of that two game stretch against the Jets and Browns, I think the defense has been really solid.  Probably top 5 overall.  

Inconsistency isn't something to celebrate, but the defense seems to be rolling now.  I would imagine they will get a huge test today with a run first, second, and third down (almost like an option team).  If I had to guess, that is what we will see from the Rats.  I am sure they are thrilled that Reader is out.  

Very excited for Mike Daniels.  Although he doesn't play Reader's spot, it should be interesting how he impacts the game at 3T. 

This is also one of maybe two games where the Bengals have their preseason projected secondary.