NFL Analytics for 2021 Season

[KillerGoose]

Week 8 Adjusted Ratings

After another TD heavy week, Burrow cracks into the top five in our adjusted passer rating metric. Winston was still technically ahead of him (which is annoying, but he was doing well on low volume. I understand why the rating liked him more) but after his injury, I dropped him from the list. Winston will finish the season with a great chance at leading the league in TD% (8.7%). With Winston gone, Burrow is now tied for the league lead in TD % with none other than Matthew Stafford. In most categories, Burrow is neck and neck with Stafford but Burrows interception are what keep him from being called the best QB in the league this season as he sports the leagues fourth highest INT %. However, it IS fair to call him the leagues best YOUNG QB as he beats out his colleague, Josh Allen, for that title.

Receiving Metrics






Despite a disappointing game this past weekend, Chase still sits second in our adjusted yards metric. We have also added success rate and EPA per play to this dataset, where Chase also ranks in the top five for EPA per play. If you use EPA per play to decide the best WR in the league, it is Deandre Hopkins this season. Overall, another week where Kupp can't be stopped as he goes off for 115 yards and one TD against the Texans. Chase needs a big game this weekend against Cleveland to hold on to the #2 spot as Deebo Samuel is right on his heels.

Week 8 SRS





We don't see much change here as the Bills and Cardinals stay at the top of our SRS ratings as Cincinnati drops to #9. The Jets, despite the win, remain the worst team in the league.

Week 8 EPA per play 






Cincinnati is hanging on to the 'good team' quadrant after their loss to the Jets. Again, the Bills and Cardinals remain the top teams in the league while the Bucs and Rams display impressive firepower. This weekends opponents, the Cleveland Browns, display an average offense with a below average defense.

Week 8 Pythag Record






Not much to say here. Cincinnati is still tracking for an 11 win season at this current pace. Cleveland is on pace for a 9 win season. I did some studying into this and by my findings, with week eight data, this Pythagorean projection is off by an average of two games. So, take this as a prediction of +-2. This means that Cincinnati is predicted to fall in the 9-13 win range. We'll see how accurate that becomes.

Rushing Success Rate






This is, in my opinion, the best way to measure a RBs contribution to the team. Success rate is an indicator of whether or not the RB added positive expected points to the team by their actions. This is filtered strictly on rushing, so this is the percentage of runs that the running back produced positive expected points. Many might be confused by what these rankings are saying with Henry and Mixon being so low, but one thing to keep in mind is that rushing the ball is generally inefficient and inconsistent. A 2nd and 8 is worth less than a 1st and 10, so when these runs happen, the running back has produced negative expected points. The nature of the running game is feast or famine which is why passing is generally considered significantly better. 

[KillerGoose]

(11-04-2021, 10:14 PM)KillerGoose Wrote:

Week 8 Pythag Record

Not much to say here. Cincinnati is still tracking for an 11 win season at this current pace. Cleveland is on pace for a 9 win season. I did some studying into this and by my findings, with week eight data, this Pythagorean projection is off by an average of two games. So, take this as a prediction of +-2. This means that Cincinnati is predicted to fall in the 9-13 win range. We'll see how accurate that becomes.

Earlier in the season, I ran this analytics thread. I wanted to re-visit it specifically to see how my record projections have ended up looking. The results were really encouraging. To eliminate decimals, I rounded these values to the nearest whole number and then compared them to the actual records as of today. Here are the results (incomplete data because the week isn't over, nor the season, I know).

Records perfectly predicted so far  - 5

Records predicted within one game - 17

Records predicted within two games - 24

Most egregious prediction - Bills at 15 wins (-5 delta, 10-6 current record)

Records predicted perfectly - (Rams, Bucs, Colts, Raiders, Eagles)

So, using this formula, we were able to predict 53% of the leagues record to within one game and 75% of the leagues record to within two games by using week eight data. It felt shaky as we were going through the season, because each week the formula was saying that Cincinnati was on pace for either 11 or 10 wins and I was still skeptical. Now, here we are sitting at 10 wins with one game left to go. Some of these numbers are going to change because of next week but still, pretty impressive hit rate for using mid-season data. Thought it would be interesting to review this now that we are very close to the end. 

[EatonFan]

(01-02-2022, 11:36 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Earlier in the season, I ran this analytics thread. I wanted to re-visit it specifically to see how my record projections have ended up looking. The results were really encouraging. To eliminate decimals, I rounded these values to the nearest whole number and then compared them to the actual records as of today. Here are the results (incomplete data because the week isn't over, nor the season, I know).

Records perfectly predicted so far  - 5

Records predicted within one game - 17

Records predicted within two games - 24

Most egregious prediction - Bills at 15 wins (-5 delta, 10-6 current record)

Records predicted perfectly - (Rams, Bucs, Colts, Raiders, Eagles)

So, using this formula, we were able to predict 53% of the leagues record to within one game and 75% of the leagues record to within two games by using week eight data. It felt shaky as we were going through the season, because each week the formula was saying that Cincinnati was on pace for either 11 or 10 wins and I was still skeptical. Now, here we are sitting at 10 wins with one game left to go. Some of these numbers are going to change because of next week but still, pretty impressive hit rate for using mid-season data. Thought it would be interesting to review this now that we are very close to the end. 

Kudos.  I love stats.

[*michaelsean*]

(01-02-2022, 11:41 PM)EatonFan Wrote: Kudos.  I love stats.

Not me. I got a D and that was about two grades higher than I actually deserved.

[KillerGoose]

Was working on NFL data this morning and created some basic charts. Thought some folks here would enjoy seeing these, so I am posting them. These charts are plotting QB and RB efficiency, based on EPA & CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected) for QBs and EPA & YPC for RBs, This doesn't really tell us much of a different story than we already knew. Burrow was highly efficient while the rushing game was....well, not. 

[QueenCity]

(05-21-2022, 12:52 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Was working on NFL data this morning and created some basic charts. Thought some folks here would enjoy seeing these, so I am posting them. These charts are plotting QB and RB efficiency, based on EPA & CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected) for QBs and EPA & YPC for RBs, This doesn't really tell us much of a different story than we already knew. Burrow was highly efficient while the rushing game was....well, not. 

Going to be a fun season if this O-Line turns this ship around

[Tony]

Seems like a lot of work for nothing really... I'll just say 12+ wins lol..

[KillerGoose]

(05-21-2022, 01:38 PM)Tony Wrote: Seems like a lot of work for nothing really... I'll just say 12+ wins lol..

Primarily for enjoyment. My job is based in software and writing code to manipulate large datasets. I enjoy automation, math and statistics. Couple that with football and it becomes a hobby. I had the Bengals pegged at 10 wins by week five, it looks like, which is fun to see when the results come out well. I'll probably try to find a way to make some predictions for 2022 so I can revisit them after the season. 

[Tony]

(05-21-2022, 01:41 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Primarily for enjoyment. My job is based in software and writing code to manipulate large datasets. I enjoy automation, math and statistics. Couple that with football and it becomes a hobby. I had the Bengals pegged at 10 wins by week five, it looks like, which is fun to see when the results come out well. I'll probably try to find a way to make some predictions for 2022 so I can revisit them after the season. 

I wish I understood it lol. Not gonna front, I don't have the attention span for it..

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(05-21-2022, 01:43 PM)Tony Wrote: I wish I understood it lol. Not gonna front, I don't have the attention span for it..

Killer Goose is too smart for me too lol