Burrow vs Herbert - Who do NFL sources, PFF analysts prefer long-term?

[*ochocincos*]

Saw this PFF article posted this morning.
https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-joe-burrow-justin-herbert-league-sources-media-pff-analysts-2021

It required premium subscription to read the whole thing, but a lot of it is readable without it.

For those who want a synopsis:
66% of the NFL coaches, executives, and scouts asked by PFF (over a dozen) went with Burrow.
Every front-office executive and coach they polled went with Burrow.
PFF analysts were pretty split - 52% Herbert, 48% Burrow.
Those who went with Herbert like his measurables, arm, athletic ability.
Many who chose Burrow like his "it" factor, leadership, ability to win.

It's worth noting that Burrow actually has the slightly better PFF rating this past year and over their first two seasons.

[Au165]

Two really good QB's and another solid one in Hurts came out of the class. It may not be 1983 or even 2004 level but it could be as good as about any other when it's said and done.

[*pally*]

The football guys chose Joe...the analytics guys chose Herbert

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-13-2022, 12:51 PM)Au165 Wrote: Two really good QB's and another solid one in Hurts came out of the class. It may not be 1983 or even 2004 level but it could be as good as about any other when it's said and done.

I thought he was totally a bust after his rookie year. I know he had some big wow plays and whatnot, but you have to be able to complete passes to be a QB in the NFL. He's still not good yet, but he's certainly improved enough from Year 1 to Year 2 that it's intriguing to see if he'll do that again.

[*Synric*]

(01-13-2022, 12:51 PM)Au165 Wrote: Two really good QB's and another solid one in Hurts came out of the class. It may not be 1983 or even 2004 level but it could be as good as about any other when it's said and done.

A little off-topic but Sirianni really changed up that scheme Hurts fits that read option RPO power run game. It's funny because you see alot of people mocking Tyler Linderbaum to the Eagles because he looks like Jason Kelce and if Doug Pederson was still there I'd agree but with Sirianni Linderbaum isnt as much of a fit. Now they have Landon Dickerson who does fit that and a guys like Jamaree Salyer or Daniel Faalele would be nice pickups in the second round.

[*ochocincos*]

(01-13-2022, 12:51 PM)Au165 Wrote: Two really good QB's and another solid one in Hurts came out of the class. It may not be 1983 or even 2004 level but it could be as good as about any other when it's said and done.

I think we should also consider Tagovailoa as solid QB, at least as a game manager.
He's 13-8 in 21 starts with a 66% completion for 4467 yards, 27 TDs, 15 INTs.
Add in 237 rush yards and 6 rushing TDs.

Compare that to Hurts, who is 9-10 in 19 starts with a 59% completion for 4205 yards, 22 TDs, 13 INTs.
He's obviously a better rusher, adding in 1138 rush yards and 13 rush TDs.

[*rfaulk34*]

(01-13-2022, 12:34 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Saw this PFF article posted this morning.
https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-joe-burrow-justin-herbert-league-sources-media-pff-analysts-2021

It required premium subscription to read the whole thing, but a lot of it is readable without it.

For those who want a synopsis:
66% of the NFL coaches, executives, and scouts asked by PFF (over a dozen) went with Burrow.
Every front-office executive and coach they polled went with Burrow.
PFF analysts were pretty split - 52% Herbert, 48% Burrow.
Those who went with Herbert like his measurables, arm, athletic ability.
Many who chose Burrow like his "it" factor, leadership, ability to win.

It's worth noting that Burrow actually has the slightly better PFF rating this past year and over their first two seasons.

The only thing i'll add is, go watch the QB breakdowns from Kurt Warner. It's rare you'll see him say anything negative about Burrow's play and there are a lot of corrections when he breaks down Herbert. Something i never see from PFF or other analysts online. 

Herbert is a very good QB and his arm and athletic ability get him out of a lot of sticky situations, but that stuff doesn't last forever and it doesn't get the job done against really good defenses. Burrow has this uncanny knack of just always throwing to the right guy. There was/is a lot of talk about how you have to be patient against the Raiders defense and take what they give you and Herbert didn't do that. It took an unbelieveable string of luck/talent to convert all those 4th downs. 

Getting back to the two, when i first started watching them in 2019, i was a Herbert fan first. Big, strong, makes all the throws, moves well and Burrow looked kind of sluggish. The more i watched them, the more i started noticing that Burrow would just always find the open guy and take what was given to him instead of throwing into coverage, trying to hit big plays. 

My opinion is that Burrow has a much more sustainable game going forward. Herbert will probably always have big numbers in yards and TDs but i don't know that he's equipped to play how he needs to in big games against big teams. I believe Burrow is. 

[*ochocincos*]

(01-13-2022, 01:22 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: The only thing i'll add is, go watch the QB breakdowns from Kurt Warner. It's rare you'll see him say anything negative about Burrow's play and there are a lot of corrections when he breaks down Herbert. Something i never see from PFF or other analysts online. 

Herbert is a very good QB and his arm and athletic ability get him out of a lot of sticky situations, but that stuff doesn't last forever and it doesn't get the job done against really good defenses. Burrow has this uncanny knack of just always throwing to the right guy. There was/is a lot of talk about how you have to be patient against the Raiders defense and take what they give you and Herbert didn't do that. It took an unbelieveable string of luck/talent to convert all those 4th downs. 

Getting back to the two, when i first started watching them in 2019, i was a Herbert fan first. Big, strong, makes all the throws, moves well and Burrow looked kind of sluggish. The more i watched them, the more i started noticing that Burrow would just always find the open guy and take what was given to him instead of throwing into coverage, trying to hit big plays. 

My opinion is that Burrow has a much more sustainable game going forward. Herbert will probably always have big numbers in yards and TDs but i don't know that he's equipped to play how he needs to in big games against big teams. I believe Burrow is. 

Herbert reminds of someone like Philip Rivers or Carson Palmer.
Will have a good career but probably not win much in the postseason.


Burrow is more like Brady in my eyes. May not lead the lead the league statistically many years but he makes calculated, accurate throws and ultimately wins more.

[Clark W Griswold]

(01-13-2022, 01:30 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Herbert reminds of someone like Philip Rivers or Carson Palmer.
Will have a good career but probably not win much in the postseason.


Burrow is more like Brady in my eyes. May not lead the lead the league statistically many years but he makes calculated, accurate throws and ultimately wins more.

So Burrow is only going to get us 7 Super Bowl championships?
That’s a little disappointing - I am expecting at least a double digit amount of Lombardi trophies from him!

[*rfaulk34*]

(01-13-2022, 01:03 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: I thought he was totally a bust after his rookie year. I know he had some big wow plays and whatnot, but you have to be able to complete passes to be a QB in the NFL. He's still not good yet, but he's certainly improved enough from Year 1 to Year 2 that it's intriguing to see if he'll do that again.

There was a little bit of talk in the draft forum about if the Bengals went Chase Young in rd1 and go QB in round 2. Hurts was the guy i wanted in rd 2 if they were going to go that way. 

[*PhilHos*]

(01-13-2022, 01:49 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: There was a little bit of talk in the draft forum about if the Bengals went Chase Young in rd1 and go QB in round 2. Hurts was the guy i wanted in rd 2 if they were going to go that way. 

Bet you wish you could go change that post now, huh!

[*rfaulk34*]

(01-13-2022, 01:54 PM)PhilHos Wrote: Bet you wish you could go change that post now, huh!

IF they were going to go that way, ya punk!! 

[*PhilHos*]

(01-13-2022, 01:57 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: IF they were going to go that way, ya punk!! 

I ain't your punk, pal. Wait. No, that's not how it goes. 

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I think the important takeaway is that both the classical NFL folks and the analytics-driven folks see plenty to like in both quarterbacks. I don't think anyone is calling Burrow a noodle-arm or anything. Overall it's a fair view, and to this point I don't believe either QB has staked a strong claim as "better". Maybe this postseason can give Burrow an edge, but we'll have to see what happens.

My personal view? I think we got the better quarterback. I will admit that in the beginning, my feeling was more plain: Burrow is a great prospect and Herbert is an ordinary prospect. I am willing to say now that I underestimated Herbert, and the sky is the limit for that dude. We'd be silly to pretend that's not the case. However, when I consider the elements of QB play that I believe are most important and most predictive of long-term success, I would say it's either a wash or advantage-Burrow in most cases.

Durability - Herbert
Accuracy - Burrow
Anticipation - Burrow
Pocket presence - Burrow
Mobility - Herbert
Decision making - wash
Progressions - wash
Leadership/cultural impact - Burrow

Other factors that I either find less important or impossible to qualify in any meaningful way:

Size - Herbert
Arm strength - Herbert
"Moxie" - Burrow

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-13-2022, 01:49 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: There was a little bit of talk in the draft forum about if the Bengals went Chase Young in rd1 and go QB in round 2. Hurts was the guy i wanted in rd 2 if they were going to go that way. 

I don't think I was strong enough to say I was a Chase Young guy, but I was not adverse to the idea of trading down in exchange for Young and a bunch of picks with the thinking that the OL needed to be fixed before throwing a young QB back there. Of course that was based around the thinking was that since it's the Bengals, all building had to be done through the draft, so extra picks were worth more. Still need to fix the OL, though.

(I sadly do have to admit I was on board with the idea of taking Haskins at 11th overall in 2019 and having him sit on the bench for a year. That would have likely turned out to be the same disaster. Lol)

[*bfine32*]

My fear is Goddell will pass a mandate:

"As a retirement present the NFL has mandated that the Chargers must award Justin Herbert to the Pittsburgh Steelers. In return the Chargers will receive Mason Rudolph".

[TecmoBengals]

(01-13-2022, 02:19 PM)bfine32 Wrote: My fear is Goddell will pass a mandate:

"As a retirement present the NFL has mandated that the Chargers must award Justin Herbert to the Pittsburgh Steelers. In return the Chargers will receive Mason Rudolph".

Ugh don't speak this into fruition. You're kidding about Herbert, but what if Watson, Wilson, or Rodgers end up in Pittsburgh next year? 

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Watson is a perfect fit for their culture.

[*ochocincos*]

(01-13-2022, 02:27 PM)TecmoBengals Wrote: Ugh don't speak this into fruition. You're kidding about Herbert, but what Watson, Wilson, or Rodgers end up in Pittsburgh next year? 

They could trade for one of these guys, but they desperately need OL help regardless.
If they trade, they're likely losing at least one first rounder.
Not sure they'll be able to put up a decent OL and acquire one of these QBs in the same year.
Rodgers probably makes the most sense for the Steelers from a financial perspective.

[Joelist]

(01-13-2022, 01:59 PM)JaggedJimmyJay Wrote: I think the important takeaway is that both the classical NFL folks and the analytics-driven folks see plenty to like in both quarterbacks. I don't think anyone is calling Burrow a noodle-arm or anything. Overall it's a fair view, and to this point I don't believe either QB has staked a strong claim as "better". Maybe this postseason can give Burrow an edge, but we'll have to see what happens.

My personal view? I think we got the better quarterback. I will admit that in the beginning, my feeling was more plain: Burrow is a great prospect and Herbert is an ordinary prospect. I am willing to say now that I underestimated Herbert, and the sky is the limit for that dude. We'd be silly to pretend that's not the case. However, when I consider the elements of QB play that I believe are most important and most predictive of long-term success, I would say it's either a wash or advantage-Burrow in most cases.

Durability - Herbert
Accuracy - Burrow
Anticipation - Burrow
Pocket presence - Burrow
Mobility - Herbert
Decision making - wash
Progressions - wash
Leadership/cultural impact - Burrow

Other factors that I either find less important or impossible to qualify in any meaningful way:

Size - Herbert
Arm strength - Herbert
"Moxie" - Burrow

I would give Burrow Decision Making and Progressions too. I watched that Raiders/Chargers game and not only was the pressure flustering Herbert (the reason for all the 4th downs was inaccuracy) but only a really ticky tack 4th down flag kept that drive alive at all. And the Raiders also blew coverage a couple of times too. In OT you saw it again and that time it cost the Chargers.