ESPN Predictions and Analysis

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Below is the ESPN analysis and predictions for the game, broken into a few posts to make it easier to read:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/33160786/bengals-chiefs-49ers-rams-nfl-playoff-game-picks-schedule-guide-bold-predictions-odds-injuries-matchup-keys-more

Matchup rating: 73.0 | Spread: KC -7.5 (54.5)
What to watch for: Bengals receiver Ja'Marr Chase wrecked the Chiefs in the December meeting between these teams, catching 11 passes for 266 receiving yards and three touchdowns. The Chiefs undoubtedly won't allow that to happen again, but at what cost? They mostly took away Buffalo receiver Stefon Diggs' impact last week against the Bills, but then Gabriel Davis had a big game. And Cincinnati has receivers Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd -- plus running back Joe Mixon -- along with Chase. Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo's schemes in this regard loom large. -- Adam Teicher

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Bold prediction: Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes will throw for at least 390 yards. Kansas City leaned on a successful run game in the second half of the first matchup against Cincinnati, which led to a quiet game from Mahomes. But don't be shocked if the reigning AFC champions look for more explosive plays in the passing game this time and get their revenge against the Bengals. Mahomes already has 782 passing yards and eight touchdown passes in two playoff games this season. -- Ben Baby

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Stat to know: Per the Elias Sports Bureau, Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow is the sixth player to enter a conference championship game with 50-plus sacks -- and his 62 are easily the most. The previous five QBs all failed to reached the Super Bowl, and four of them saw their teams fail to score an offensive touchdown in that conference title game. However, Burrow is also the fifth player in the past 30 seasons to enter a conference championship game while leading the NFL in both completion percentage and yards per attempt (including playoffs). And these aren't easy completions. The second-year QB has the NFL's best completion percentage over expectation, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.

Bowen's game-plan key: The Chiefs need to beat up Burrow in the pocket, and outside linebacker Melvin Ingram III could play a big part. Expect Kansas City to scheme him up and get him some one-on-one matchups.

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Seifert's officiating outlook: Referee Bill Vinovich's regular-season crew annually throws the fewest flags among the NFL's 17 crews, and this season was no exception. His crew averaged 10.9 flags per game, 34% less than the crew that called the most (Carl Cheffers, 16.6). He'll preside over a game that features the NFL's least-penalized team (Bengals, 84) and ninth most-penalized team (Chiefs, 129). Vinovich was the only referee in the NFL not to call a single roughing the passer penalty during the regular season, and his regular-season crew threw the third-fewest flags for holding (34).

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Betting nugget: The Bengals have covered six straight games and four straight road games. They are also 5-1 against the spread as a road underdog this season. But Kansas City has covered six straight home games and is 7-1 against the spread in its past eight games against teams with winning records.