An argument that the Bengals are the better football team on the field tomorrow

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I was thinking for a while this evening as I reviewed various bits relating to the Chiefs' 2021 season, and I found myself wondering to what extent they have earned their current image as this sort of unbeatable monstrosity. I believe there's a decent argument available to us that the Bengals are, to put it flatly, a better football team than the Chiefs are. Obviously a counter-argument can be made, and if Chiefs snoopers out there want to scream at their computers as they read this they are welcome to do so. I think this case is a valid one though, and my confidence has only grown. I feel pretty damned good about this game. Here are three separate arguments that can be integrated if you like for a stronger case.

Are you a strength of schedule person? The Chiefs wins this regular season came against: Browns, Eagles, WFT, [Giants, Packers, Raiders x2, Cowboys, Broncos x2, Chargers, Steelers]
--- The teams contained in brackets reflect the second half "surge" the Chiefs enjoyed, winning 8 of 9.
--- Absolutely none of those wins is impressive. Even the Packers win was a 6-point squeaker against Jordan Love.
--- This means the Chiefs have won one game all year that I think qualifies as a "great win" -- last week's divisional playoff win over the Bills. And they were 13 seconds and maybe a squib kick short of losing that game.
The Bengals' wins are comparable in the regular season, with what I'd call two "great wins" overall -- over the Chiefs themselves and in the divisional playoffs over the Titans.

Are you a person that prefers to compare position groups? I think all of the following are reasonable takes:
Quarterback -- Chiefs ≥ Bengals
Running back -- Bengals > Chiefs
Offensive line -- Chiefs > Bengals
Wide receivers and tight ends -- Bengals > Chiefs
Defensive line -- Bengals = Chiefs
Linebackers -- Chiefs ≥ Bengals
Secondary -- Bengals > Chiefs
Special teams -- Chiefs ≥ Bengals
I place these inequality symbols with only a mind for objective production and past trends. Do you think Joe Burrow can hang with Patrick Mahomes in a postseason game? Do you think Evan McPherson can hang with Harrison Butker? I do. If you believe in things like that, then the Bengals are at least Kansas City's equal in summation. I don't personally care for this kind of comparison, but it's not entirely invalid.

Are you a matchups-oriented person?
Kansas City's secondary has faced strong arrays of offensive weaponry I'd count... seven times this season. They were:
L 36-35 @ Baltimore (481 yards allowed; 251 rushing)
L 30-24 vs. Los Angeles Chargers (352 yards allowed, 275 passing)
L 38-20 vs. Buffalo (436 yards allowed, 315 passing)
W 19-9 vs. Dallas (276 yards allowed, 194 passing)
W 34-28 @ Chargers (428 yards allowed, 236 passing, 192 rushing)
L 34-31 @ Cincinnati (475 yards allowed, 415 passing)
W 42-36 vs. Buffalo (422 yards allowed, 313 passing)
--- Count 'em up, and the Chiefs were 3-4 in those games. They allowed 400+ yards in 5 of those games. Their absolute worst defensive performance came against the absolute best arsenal of weapons (ours, bitches). The Kansas City defense has been hot garbage most of the season. In some of these they got dominated in the defensive backfield, and others they got chewed up on the ground. In only ONE of these games did they hold their opponent under 28 points, and that was against the Cowboys -- not something that means much to me.
--- So as bad as the Bengals offensive line has been, there hasn't been nearly enough attention directed at how bad the Kansas City secondary has been. Tyrann Mathieu is a good player, but the rest of that unit offers very little resistance to quality receiving talent. They were horrible in our last matchup, and clearly that wasn't a fluke. They're just bad.
--- The Bengals' biggest weakness, clearly the offensive line in pass protection, was exposed badly against the Titans (10th in the league in sacks). The Chiefs (29th in sacks) will be hard-pressed to replicate or even approach the sack production that the Titans managed. They may managed to pressure Joe Burrow a decent amount, but... well he kills it under pressure. Be my guest.
--- The Chiefs are a blitz-heavy team. Joe Burrow murders the blitz. The Chiefs are a man-coverage defense predominantly. Joe Burrow murders man coverage.
--- The Bengals' secondary has designed itself to deal with star-driven offensive opponents. Chidobe Awuzie was great against Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill the first time. Tre Flowers has been a marked improvement in tight end coverage. Bell played like a fringe Pro Bowler much of the season, and Bates has been one of their best players overall in the postseason.
--- We can answer their Creed Humphrey advantage with our DJ Reader advantage.
--- Hubbard is an extremely disciplined edge player who is well-suited to deal with Mahomes' escapability. He's the kind of player that you need in this matchup to prevent Mahomes from killing you all game with his legs as he did the Bills. Hubbard really emphasizes a sort of edge mush rush and can engage multiple gaps.

This post is big enough. You get the point. I think the Bengals are going to win this game because that's just what they do this year. I don't really give a crap who they're opposed by. But there are solid arguments there for anyone that draws strength from them.

[SladeX]

I feel pretty good about this game, too. All except the noise level…

[*Go Cards*]

Bengals have a much better chance than the world and odds makers are giving them. .

They love saying 9 sacks, yet act like KC is has no warts.

Agree that Hubbard could be instrumental as well, he can keep Lamar in the pocket and he is more allusive than Mahomes.

Like Bengals chances.

[kevin]

(01-30-2022, 02:26 AM)JaggedJimmyJay Wrote: I was thinking for a while this evening as I reviewed various bits relating to the Chiefs' 2021 season, and I found myself wondering to what extent they have earned their current image as this sort of unbeatable monstrosity. I believe there's a decent argument available to us that the Bengals are, to put it flatly, a better football team than the Chiefs are. Obviously a counter-argument can be made, and if Chiefs snoopers out there want to scream at their computers as they read this they are welcome to do so. I think this case is a valid one though, and my confidence has only grown. I feel pretty damned good about this game. Here are three separate arguments that can be integrated if you like for a stronger case.

Are you a strength of schedule person? The Chiefs wins this regular season came against: Browns, Eagles, WFT, [Giants, Packers, Raiders x2, Cowboys, Broncos x2, Chargers, Steelers]
--- The teams contained in brackets reflect the second half "surge" the Chiefs enjoyed, winning 8 of 9.
--- Absolutely none of those wins is impressive. Even the Packers win was a 6-point squeaker against Jordan Love.
--- This means the Chiefs have won one game all year that I think qualifies as a "great win" -- last week's divisional playoff win over the Bills. And they were 13 seconds and maybe a squib kick short of losing that game.
The Bengals' wins are comparable in the regular season, with what I'd call two "great wins" overall -- over the Chiefs themselves and in the divisional playoffs over the Titans.

Are you a person that prefers to compare position groups? I think all of the following are reasonable takes:
Quarterback -- Chiefs ≥ Bengals
Running back -- Bengals > Chiefs
Offensive line -- Chiefs > Bengals
Wide receivers and tight ends -- Bengals > Chiefs
Defensive line -- Bengals = Chiefs
Linebackers -- Chiefs ≥ Bengals
Secondary -- Bengals > Chiefs
Special teams -- Chiefs ≥ Bengals
I place these inequality symbols with only a mind for objective production and past trends. Do you think Joe Burrow can hang with Patrick Mahomes in a postseason game? Do you think Evan McPherson can hang with Harrison Butker? I do. If you believe in things like that, then the Bengals are at least Kansas City's equal in summation. I don't personally care for this kind of comparison, but it's not entirely invalid.

Are you a matchups-oriented person?
Kansas City's secondary has faced strong arrays of offensive weaponry I'd count... seven times this season. They were:
L 36-35 @ Baltimore (481 yards allowed; 251 rushing)
L 30-24 vs. Los Angeles Chargers (352 yards allowed, 275 passing)
L 38-20 vs. Buffalo (436 yards allowed, 315 passing)
W 19-9 vs. Dallas (276 yards allowed, 194 passing)
W 34-28 @ Chargers (428 yards allowed, 236 passing, 192 rushing)
L 34-31 @ Cincinnati (475 yards allowed, 415 passing)
W 42-36 vs. Buffalo (422 yards allowed, 313 passing)
--- Count 'em up, and the Chiefs were 3-4 in those games. They allowed 400+ yards in 5 of those games. Their absolute worst defensive performance came against the absolute best arsenal of weapons (ours, bitches). The Kansas City defense has been hot garbage most of the season. In some of these they got dominated in the defensive backfield, and others they got chewed up on the ground. In only ONE of these games did they hold their opponent under 28 points, and that was against the Cowboys -- not something that means much to me.
--- So as bad as the Bengals offensive line has been, there hasn't been nearly enough attention directed at how bad the Kansas City secondary has been. Tyrann Mathieu is a good player, but the rest of that unit offers very little resistance to quality receiving talent. They were horrible in our last matchup, and clearly that wasn't a fluke. They're just bad.
--- The Bengals' biggest weakness, clearly the offensive line in pass protection, was exposed badly against the Titans (10th in the league in sacks). The Chiefs (29th in sacks) will be hard-pressed to replicate or even approach the sack production that the Titans managed. They may managed to pressure Joe Burrow a decent amount, but... well he kills it under pressure. Be my guest.
--- The Chiefs are a blitz-heavy team. Joe Burrow murders the blitz. The Chiefs are a man-coverage defense predominantly. Joe Burrow murders man coverage.
--- The Bengals' secondary has designed itself to deal with star-driven offensive opponents. Chidobe Awuzie was great against Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill the first time. Tre Flowers has been a marked improvement in tight end coverage. Bell played like a fringe Pro Bowler much of the season, and Bates has been one of their best players overall in the postseason.
--- We can answer their Creed Humphrey advantage with our DJ Reader advantage.
--- Hubbard is an extremely disciplined edge player who is well-suited to deal with Mahomes' escapability. He's the kind of player that you need in this matchup to prevent Mahomes from killing you all game with his legs as he did the Bills. Hubbard really emphasizes a sort of edge mush rush and can engage multiple gaps.

This post is big enough. You get the point. I think the Bengals are going to win this game because that's just what they do this year. I don't really give a crap who they're opposed by. But there are solid arguments there for anyone that draws strength from them.

The best thing you said is You think the Bengals are going to Win. 

The game will not be played on paper or computer.  We can Over Think this thing.  I'll settle for a few Lucky Bounces and a Bengals Win and a Trip to The Super Bowl, however the game goes. 

GO BENGALS

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-30-2022, 02:26 AM)JaggedJimmyJay Wrote: Are you a strength of schedule person? The Chiefs wins this regular season came against: Browns, Eagles, WFT, [Giants, Packers, Raiders x2, Cowboys, Broncos x2, Chargers, Steelers]
--- The teams contained in brackets reflect the second half "surge" the Chiefs enjoyed, winning 8 of 9.
--- Absolutely none of those wins is impressive. Even the Packers win was a 6-point squeaker against Jordan Love.
--- This means the Chiefs have won one game all year that I think qualifies as a "great win" -- last week's divisional playoff win over the Bills. And they were 13 seconds and maybe a squib kick short of losing that game.
The Bengals' wins are comparable in the regular season, with what I'd call two "great wins" overall -- over the Chiefs themselves and in the divisional playoffs over the Titans.

Are you a person that prefers to compare position groups? I think all of the following are reasonable takes:
Quarterback -- Chiefs ≥ Bengals
Running back -- Bengals > Chiefs
Offensive line -- Chiefs > Bengals
Wide receivers and tight ends -- Bengals > Chiefs
Defensive line -- Bengals = Chiefs
Linebackers -- Chiefs ≥ Bengals
Secondary -- Bengals > Chiefs
Special teams -- Chiefs ≥ Bengals
I place these inequality symbols with only a mind for objective production and past trends. Do you think Joe Burrow can hang with Patrick Mahomes in a postseason game? Do you think Evan McPherson can hang with Harrison Butker? I do. If you believe in things like that, then the Bengals are at least Kansas City's equal in summation. I don't personally care for this kind of comparison, but it's not entirely invalid.


Are you a matchups-oriented person?

If you're a SoS person, rather than doing all that typing... 
Bengals SoS: -1.86
Chiefs SoS: +0.56

Bengals SRS: 3.08 (12th)
Chiefs SRS: 7.28 (5th)

- - - - - - -

As soon as you grouped WRs and TEs together, it's got to be a =....  3,919 yards/29 TD vs 3,889 yards/28 TD for each teams top 4 WRs + top TE. That's about as identical as you can get.

Not sure how the Chiefs get a _ on their LBs.... According to PFF, Chiefs have a guy ranked 14th and a guy ranked 28th. Bengals highest ranked guy is Logan Wilson at 41st.

- - - - - - - -

This is silly because the Bengals gave up 511 yards to the Jets.

- - - - - - -




.......I realize that the board is just being flooded by unbounded optimism and giant Who Dey rant threads right now, but come on... don't lose touch with reality.

That's not to say the Bengals can't beat the Chiefs, they absolutely can (and did earlier). Just take a breath and put down the kool aid is all I am saying.

[Interceptor]

(01-30-2022, 02:51 AM)SladeX Wrote: I feel pretty good about this game, too. All except the noise level…

Yeah, crickets can be annoying.

[*SHRacerX*]

(01-30-2022, 02:51 AM)SladeX Wrote: I feel pretty good about this game, too. All except the noise level…

You nailed it.  Although Joe can deal with it, the entire offense is effected.  And I also worry a bit about this officiating crew.  Hopefully the NFL realizes the star power of Burrow and that  most of the world wants Cincy to win this game so they get a fair shot.  

[fredtoast]

(01-30-2022, 06:17 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: That's not to say the Bengals can't beat the Chiefs, they absolutely can (and did earlier). Just take a breath and put down the kool aid is all I am saying.

This.

I feel the Bengals can beat the Chiefs.  No doubt about it.  But "on paper" it is pretty clear why the Chiefs are a 6 point favorite.

Chiefs had almost twice as many wins against winning teams than Bengals (7 to 4) and a much higher winning percentage against winning teams (.636 to .571).  Chiefs had more wins against playoff teams (6) than any team in the league.

Chiefs had the #4 scoring offense and #8 scoring defense.  Bengals had the #7 scoring offense and #17 scoring defense.

[KillerGoose]

(01-30-2022, 06:17 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: If you're a SoS person, rather than doing all that typing... 
Bengals SoS: -1.86
Chiefs SoS: +0.56

I'm glad you brought this up. By this SOS, Cincinnati had the easiest schedule in the league which really doesn't help any SOS argument. 

[AlphaBengal]

Bengals are the better “team”, the Chiefs have the better players. There’s no question about that. With that being said our chances of beating KC are a lot better than Buffalo.

[Whacked]

If this game was being played in Cincinnati, I would be extremely confident.

Playing at Arrowhead of all places, is a game changer.

It’s going to be a dang good one that’s for sure; but I think the big bad AFC bully playing at home (and playing with a chip on their shoulder due to the 1st game), gives them an them THE advantage in this one.

[QueenCity]

Any given Sunday boys.... I love that our team still has a chip on their shoulder.

Bengals have to win the turnover battle and if our running game gets going that would bode well for a Win.

[Mickeypoo]

(01-30-2022, 06:17 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: If you're a SoS person, rather than doing all that typing... 
Bengals SoS: -1.86
Chiefs SoS: +0.56

Bengals SRS: 3.08 (12th)
Chiefs SRS: 7.28 (5th)

- - - - - - -

As soon as you grouped WRs and TEs together, it's got to be a =....  3,919 yards/29 TD vs 3,889 yards/28 TD for each teams top 4 WRs + top TE. That's about as identical as you can get.

Not sure how the Chiefs get a _ on their LBs.... According to PFF, Chiefs have a guy ranked 14th and a guy ranked 28th. Bengals highest ranked guy is Logan Wilson at 41st.

- - - - - - - -

This is silly because the Bengals gave up 511 yards to the Jets.

- - - - - - -




.......I realize that the board is just being flooded by unbounded optimism and giant Who Dey rant threads right now, but come on... don't lose touch with reality.

That's not to say the Bengals can't beat the Chiefs, they absolutely can (and did earlier). Just take a breath and put down the kool aid is all I am saying.

Just hook me up to the IV bitches!!!!     We gonna win this!!!!!!

[reuben.ahmed]

I think Burrow will excel in this atmosphere. Today we see the legend of Joe Brr, if he's able to get the rest of his team to ignore the richter level noise.

We need this game to come down to the last drive. With Joe B and Evan M, Joe B will be the new comeback king.

[kevin]

(01-30-2022, 06:17 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: If you're a SoS person, rather than doing all that typing... 
Bengals SoS: -1.86
Chiefs SoS: +0.56

Bengals SRS: 3.08 (12th)
Chiefs SRS: 7.28 (5th)

- - - - - - -

As soon as you grouped WRs and TEs together, it's got to be a =....  3,919 yards/29 TD vs 3,889 yards/28 TD for each teams top 4 WRs + top TE. That's about as identical as you can get.

Not sure how the Chiefs get a _ on their LBs.... According to PFF, Chiefs have a guy ranked 14th and a guy ranked 28th. Bengals highest ranked guy is Logan Wilson at 41st.

- - - - - - - -

This is silly because the Bengals gave up 511 yards to the Jets.

- - - - - - -




.......I realize that the board is just being flooded by unbounded optimism and giant Who Dey rant threads right now, but come on... don't lose touch with reality.

That's not to say the Bengals can't beat the Chiefs, they absolutely can (and did earlier). Just take a breath and put down the kool aid is all I am saying.

Yes, the Board is flooded with optimism and Who Dey Chants.  IT SHOULD BE.  1981 and 1988 are the only times Bengals have been this far.  Fans have waited a long time for a season like 2021.   FANS have. FANS. 

You come on here and talk of getting real and being realistic. The same crap I heard out of people on these boards who loved being negative on here over the years. You even talk about The Jets game.  The Jets game. The Jets game.  You seem to love rubbing the Jets Game in our faces.  So I rub in your face January 2nd and Bengals BEATING the Chiefs to win AFC NORTH and knocking off Cleveland, Baltimore, Pittsburgh by beating The Chiefs, Beating The Chiefs, Beating The Chiefs. 

The Bengals had a great season. Going to the AFC Championship is a great season.  FANS SHOULD BE EXCITED.  Damn you people on here stuck in your Negativity and Insults as if you enjoyed being on here more when the team only won 4 games. So as you want to keep insulting everybody with The Jets game, I tell you that was just one loss.  Even the 1979 Pittsburgh Steelers, one of the best teams ever, lost to a very bad Bengals team.  It happens. The Jets game means Nothing, that's right pal, NOTHING.   The only thing that matters is Bengals WON the AFC NORTH, Bengals Beat Chiefs, Raiders, Titans in January and are in the AFC CHAMPIONSHIP.

So I say to you and some others on here, YOU GET REAL.  Yes, the Board is full of Fans happy saying Who Dey.  Sorry that upsets you, but if it upsets you, maybe you are not a FAN.  Fans should be Happy and Excited.  Bengals have only had 3 seasons like this.  1981, 1988 and 2021.  

So to all of you people stuck in your Negative Insults which you palm off over the years as some BS Reality.  To you people I say :

[masonbengals fan]

  Just have to have a chance in the end. And if we get that chance. I like our chances. 

[Fan_in_Kettering]

(01-30-2022, 01:55 PM)kevin Wrote: Yes, the Board is flooded with optimism and Who Dey Chants.  IT SHOULD BE.  1981 and 1988 are the only times Bengals have been this far.  Fans have waited a long time for a season like 2021.   FANS have. FANS. 

You come on here and talk of getting real and being realistic. The same crap I heard out of people on these boards who loved being negative on here over the years. You even talk about The Jets game.  The Jets game. The Jets game.  You seem to love rubbing the Jets Game in our faces.  So I rub in your face January 2nd and Bengals BEATING the Chiefs to win AFC NORTH and knocking off Cleveland, Baltimore, Pittsburgh by beating The Chiefs, Beating The Chiefs, Beating The Chiefs. 

The Bengals had a great season. Going to the AFC Championship is a great season.  FANS SHOULD BE EXCITED.  Damn you people on here stuck in your Negativity and Insults as if you enjoyed being on here more when the team only won 4 games. So as you want to keep insulting everybody with The Jets game, I tell you that was just one loss.  Even the 1979 Pittsburgh Steelers, one of the best teams ever, lost to a very bad Bengals team.  It happens. The Jets game means Nothing, that's right pal, NOTHING.   The only thing that matters is Bengals WON the AFC NORTH, Bengals Beat Chiefs, Raiders, Titans in January and are in the AFC CHAMPIONSHIP.

So I say to you and some others on here, YOU GET REAL.  Yes, the Board is full of Fans happy saying Who Dey.  Sorry that upsets you, but if it upsets you, maybe you are not a FAN.  Fans should be Happy and Excited.  Bengals have only had 3 seasons like this.  1981, 1988 and 2021.  

So to all of you people stuck in your Negative Insults which you palm off over the years as some BS Reality.  To you people I say :

Whether the Bengals win or lose today I’m going to be happy because the future looks bright here in the Cincinnati area. If the Bengals make it to the Super Bowl I’ll need some wine tonight just to sleep. If Cincinnati loses I’ll be disappointed but not despondent. I’m hopeful because this team is only a better offensive line away from being dominant in the league.

[kevin]

(01-30-2022, 02:20 PM)Fan_in_Kettering Wrote: Whether the Bengals win or lose today I’m going to be happy because the future looks bright here in the Cincinnati area.  If the Bengals make it to the Super Bowl I’ll need some wine tonight just to sleep.  If Cincinnati loses I’ll be disappointed but not despondent.  I’m hopeful because this team is only a better offensive line away from being dominant in the league.

I thought that in 1981 and 1988.  One older person told me they are here now, and they better win now.  Turned out he was right.  So we can wish for a better O Line in future, but maybe we lose parts to this team that is winning now.  Bengals beat the Chiefs, and would have beat the 49ers if not for the guy that fumbled all those punts they replaced.  Bengals have a chance at going Super Bowl and winning NOW.  I learned from 1981 and 1988, when Bengals get this far, seize the day and try to go all the way NOW. 

You are always a true Bengals Fan, Fan In Kettering.  I'm excited also. I'm hoping this O Line is good enough and other parts of this team are Great, and This Is Our Year.  GO BENGALS. 

and 

[Interceptor]

I thought the final score on the scoreboard says it all?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

(01-30-2022, 12:05 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: I'm glad you brought this up. By this SOS, Cincinnati had the easiest schedule in the league which really doesn't help any SOS argument. 

I don’t think those numbers offer any meaningful insight, and a discussion of schedule strength is just about pointless without context.

I don’t think the Chiefs have any impressive wins on their regular season schedule. The Bengals don’t either unless the Chiefs themselves qualify as an impressive win.