O-line prediction

[samhain]

(03-06-2022, 04:14 PM)pulses Wrote: Rasheed Walker is a 3rd/4th rounder whose gonna need 2 or 3 years as well before he is ready.

Honestly I don't like starting any of the tackles we could get there to start in week 1. Not vs AFC north pass rushers.  The learning curve has gotten too steep for OTs.  Any of these guys should be drafted with a vet like Reiff in front on the depth chart.  The idea is to eventually have a starter(s) on a rookie deal so we don't have to shell out like we likely will this offseason to rebuild.  They'll be done if they don't find solid in-house drafted talent within the next 2 drafts.

[pulses]

(03-06-2022, 04:18 PM)samhain Wrote: Honestly I don't like starting any of the tackles we could get there to start in week 1.  Not vs AFC north pass rushers.  The learning curve has gotten too steep for OTs.  Any of these guys should be drafted with a vet like Reiff in front on the depth chart.  The idea is to eventually have a starter(s) on a rookie deal so we don't have to shell out like we likely will this offseason to rebuild.  They'll be done if they don't find solid in-house drafted talent within the next 2 drafts.

He doesn't run block all that well but terrific in pass blocking. I wouldn't be surprised if we draft Abraham Lucas. I think Pollack working with him and getting him stronger will get his run blocking better.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(03-06-2022, 02:47 AM)pulses Wrote: I want Daniels for center because he fits our scheme better than Jensen and Bozeman and he's also younger.

Understandable.

(03-06-2022, 01:24 PM)Dr.Z Wrote: I try to watch actual game tape and not just read online scouting reports, highlight tapes, and articles from the media.   Those are fun and valuable too, but they can certainly lack objectivity and be wrong obviously when you revisit coverage from past drafts.  I'm certainly not banging the drum for Petit-Frere , but he's an intriguing prospect who needs refinement but seems to get trashed, while guys from smaller schools get hyped and more of a pass on areas of improvement.  I love Trevor Penning's upside and am extremely intrigued by him, but he had his struggles as well on tape, such as mental lapses, holding penalties (against relatively weaker competition), being too upright, etc. Also, does this "mean streak" stuff remind anyone of Tevon Jenkins from this time last year?   I'm not saying P-F is a better pick (and probably isn't), but think he gets unfairly criticized relative to his peers.  He was a 5 star recruit for a reason, so this is very hypothetical, but it makes me wonder what articles would look like if he had played for a small school and dominated lesser competition with his size/athletic profile he possesses.

Most of us are gun shy about OSU O-lineman lol

Petit-Frere is a LT though, not a RT like we need. I don't know if he can play on the right side.

All the more reason we need to bring in a RT like Morgan Moses or Trent Brown.

[fredtoast]

(03-06-2022, 04:03 PM)pulses Wrote: You don't draft a guy at 31 thats gonna take 2 or 3 years before he is ready to possibly start....again no thanks!!!

Actually a majority of players taken at 31 won't start as rookies.

Should not take 3 years though.  A 2nd round pick (or late 1st) should be ready to step in and start by year 2.

[fredtoast]

(03-06-2022, 04:38 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Most of us are gun shy about OSU O-lineman lol

Right.

Because Joe Burrow is just like JaMarcus Russell.

[*Synric*]

(03-06-2022, 04:38 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Understandable.


Most of us are gun shy about OSU O-lineman lol

Petit-Frere is a LT though, not a RT like we need. I don't know if he can play on the right side.

All the more reason we need to bring in a RT like Morgan Moses or Trent Brown.

NPF played RT in 2020 then switched to LT in 2021 but finished the year at RT. Which was an issue he never got comfortable in 1 spot to develop. His worst game was vs Michgan but if you watch his feet you could see flipping sides was the biggest issue.

He should have stayed at Ohio State for 1 more year to continue to develop and he would have likely been a first round pick.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(03-06-2022, 05:11 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Right.

Because Joe Burrow is just like JaMarcus Russell.

Yeah, it is a bit illogical I know.

Judge the player, not the school.

(03-06-2022, 05:12 PM)Synric Wrote: NPF played RT in 2020 then switched to LT in 2021 but finished the year at RT. Which was an issue he never got comfortable in 1 spot to develop. His worst game was vs Michgan but if you watch his feet you could see flipping sides was the biggest issue.

He should have stayed at Ohio State for 1 more year to continue to develop and he would have likely been a first round pick.

Thanks, Petit-Frere has at least played on the right side so there is that. Wouldn't be against picking him at 63 as long
as we got a RT in FA like Moses for him to develop behind. Understandable NPF had trouble against Hutchinson and 
company and being flipped around like that isn't easy on an OT.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

BTW, just saw we are interested in Laken Tomlinson and Bradley Bozeman. Would love to add these 2 OL along with Moses.

[Dr.Z]

(03-06-2022, 05:12 PM)Synric Wrote: NPF played RT in 2020 then switched to LT in 2021 but finished the year at RT. Which was an issue he never got comfortable in 1 spot to develop. His worst game was vs Michgan but if you watch his feet you could see flipping sides was the biggest issue.

He should have stayed at Ohio State for 1 more year to continue to develop and he would have likely been a first round pick.

Beat me to it lol.   Again, I'm not  campaigning for P-F, just saying that when looking at upside guys w/ high ceilings, he has a claim. He was the consensus #1 offensive tackle prospect in the nation not too long ago according to Rivals,  ESPN, 24-7 Sports w a 5 star designation. 

[Dr.Z]

(03-06-2022, 04:38 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Understandable.


Most of us are gun shy about OSU O-lineman lol

Petit-Frere is a LT though, not a RT like we need. I don't know if he can play on the right side.

All the more reason we need to bring in a RT like Morgan Moses or Trent Brown.

I want OL addressed in FA too. I wanted Moses last year when he was available. I do think there’s a decent chance an OL cld be BPA as well though when we pick. If not, the position seems deep for selections henceforth. Corner seems deep as well though, and perhaps deeper.

[Joelist]

Really we need to build the line in Free Agency going right to left. A legit starter quality RT and RG are essential adds. Center is more dependent on other factors because we can roll again with Hopkins if it comes to it. Spain is okay for LG and Jonah has LT. Most of our OL issues came on the right side so that has to be fixed first - and will likely be pretty expensive.

Maybe it winds up Moses - Daniels - Hop - Spain - Jonah? Long shot would be Moses - Daniels - Jensen - Spain - Jonah. Real long shot is Jonah - Daniels - Jensen - Spain - Tunsil.

[Au165]

(03-06-2022, 05:09 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Actually a majority of players taken at 31 won't start as rookies.

Should not take 3 years though.  A 2nd round pick (or late 1st) should be ready to step in and start by year 2.

That’s not really true, the general expectation is your 1st will start (short of being a future QB behind a vet) and most 2nd rounders will. The 2nds that don’t and the 3rds should be contributing in some role though (at some point in the year) and be ready for year 2, the 3rds may be a two year project but honestly most teams know by year 2 if it’s going to work or not short an injury. Beyond that you hope to get special team guys and others who can play roles at some point with an occasional future starter.

[samhain]

(03-06-2022, 05:11 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Right.

Because Joe Burrow is just like JaMarcus Russell.

Yep.  Justin Herbert is Akili Smith.  

[samhain]

(03-06-2022, 01:24 PM)Dr.Z Wrote: I try to watch actual game tape and not just read online scouting reports, highlight tapes, and articles from the media.   Those are fun and valuable too, but they can certainly lack objectivity and be wrong obviously when you revisit coverage from past drafts.  I'm certainly not banging the drum for Petit-Frere , but he's an intriguing prospect who needs refinement but seems to get trashed, while guys from smaller schools get hyped and more of a pass on areas of improvement.  I love Trevor Penning's upside and am extremely intrigued by him, but he had his struggles as well on tape, such as mental lapses, holding penalties (against relatively weaker competition), being too upright, etc. Also, does this "mean streak" stuff remind anyone of Tevon Jenkins from this time last year?   I'm not saying P-F is a better pick (and probably isn't), but think he gets unfairly criticized relative to his peers.  He was a 5 star recruit for a reason, so this is very hypothetical, but it makes me wonder what articles would look like if he had played for a small school and dominated lesser competition with his size/athletic profile he possesses.

I see him getting trashed by fans moreso than draft sites or anyone in a professional capacity.  I'm not saying that the dude is going to be Jonathan Ogden week 1 or ever, but the negatives I read about NPF are pretty garden variety for a young tackle.  His alleged bad games were against premier  DLs, and they were more inconsistent than flat out bad.  

The positives on him are his use of hands, his feet (two huge pluses IMO) and his arm length.  He's got great size and played both tackles spots with a lot of success vs the highest level of competition outside the SEC.  

He may require some seasoning as all tackle prospects at that point will, but you could do worse than starting with his skill set.  Unless a player is coming from a triple option offense or some ancient wing-T program, I think it's absolutely pointless to dismiss a prospect based on past players from the program.  

[fredtoast]

(03-06-2022, 07:06 PM)Au165 Wrote: That’s not really true, the general expectation is your 1st will start (short of being a future QB behind a vet) and most 2nd rounders will. 

Sorry, but it is true.

Last year only 6 players taken in the second half of the first round started as many as 8 games.  And only a total of 9 players taken in the second round.  Those numbers are about the same every year.

When we were picking in the top half of the first round every year you could hope for e decent starter as a rookie.  But at 31 not so much.

It could happen, (see: Higgins) but I would not want to depend on it.

[*ochocincos*]

(03-06-2022, 05:29 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: BTW, just saw we are interested in Laken Tomlinson and Bradley Bozeman. Would love to add these 2 OL along with Moses.

I don't see Bozeman as a scheme fit.
He's not a very athletic C.

[Au165]

(03-07-2022, 12:24 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Sorry, but it is true.

Last year only 6 players taken in the second half of the first round started as many as 8 games.  And only a total of 9 players taken in the second round.  Those numbers are about the same every year.

When we were picking in the top half of the first round every year you could hope for e decent starter as a rookie.  But at 31 not so much.

It could happen, (see: Higgins) but I would not want to depend on it.

That’s not what teams expect when they take those guys, from injuries (especially last year lots of injuries to back half) maturity to other issues it may occur but the expectations are exactly as I laid out above from an NFL scout. It’s how they operate in terms of looking at how they address needs and project production when thinking about FA and draft entering an off season and even projecting out multiple years.

Side note, be careful with “starts” as a start is considered first snap but if your the slot corner or the 3rd WR and you come out in base personnel you don’t get a “start”. Jason Kelce came out and played the first snap in week 18 to keep a streak alive then left the field and got a start. Snap share is probably a better metric. Jalen Phillips in Miami for example only “started” 5 games but took the second post snaps on the team at DE so he probably was more of the “starter” than the starts would say but I think they had another DE who took heavy package snaps.

[*ochocincos*]

(03-07-2022, 02:28 PM)Au165 Wrote: That’s not what teams expect when they take those guys, from injuries (especially last year lots of injuries to back half) maturity to other issues it may occur but the expectations are exactly as I laid out above from an NFL scout. It’s how they operate in terms of looking at how they address needs and project production when thinking about FA and draft entering an off season and even projecting out multiple years.

Side note, be careful with “starts” as a start is considered first snap but if your the slot corner or the 3rd WR and you come out in base personnel you don’t get a “start”. Jason Kelce came out and played the first snap in week 18 to keep a streak alive then left the field and got a start. Snap share is probably a better metric. Jalen Phillips in Miami for example only “started” 5 games but took the second post snaps on the team at DE so he probably was more of the “starter” than the starts would say but I think they had another DE who took heavy package snaps.

Typically we'll see more teams who draft early start more 1st and 2nd rounders compared to teams who pick late.
A lot of that is because the teams who pick late typically have a playoff-caliber roster going into the draft.

Some teams also almost always address their starters in FA so that they can save the draft for pure BPA, even if it means that player sits as depth for a year (or two).

How many times did we see Marvin's Bengals draft a CB after already having 3 pretty decent CBs, only for that drafted CB to ride the bench?

I will say that I think the Bengals have the ability to cover all their starters with solid-or-better players in FA if they do it right.
With that said, I think there should be a handful of NFL-ready players at 31 that could come in and play well on a healthy number of snaps as rookies if they do need more of an immediate contributor or two.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(03-07-2022, 12:27 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I don't see Bozeman as a scheme fit.
He's not a very athletic C.

True, just saying what I saw.

[*SHRacerX*]

(03-02-2022, 01:01 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: They will resign Reiff and Spain. They will sign a top FA center and keep Hopkins. They will sign a mid level med priced guard in FA and draft at #31 Raimann the OT from Central Michigan. They want depth and competition. They will make do with more bodies

I think there is a good chance Reiff retires.  I guess that ankle injury was pretty bad.  

I don't think they will go with Raimann.  They have two developing OTs in Smith and Adeniji that were pressed in to development at OG due to such poor play by Carman.  

Fred may be pretty close on the veteran additions, but I wouldn't be surprised if Hopkins is let go to sign Jensen.  They could offer him a lesser deal to compete at OG with incentives based on playing time.  

I am torn about Lindenbaum.  His arms are SO SHORT.  He's incredibly athletic, but I don't see the Bengals deviating from their minimum standards that they want out of positions.  He could very well be there now, as well.  I just don't see it happening.