Joe Mixon usage

[fredtoast]

Before this season started one of my biggest concerns was Mixon's health.  He had only played 6 games in 2020 and had also missed a couple of games in each of his first two seasons.

It was also a concern that he had averaged 20 carries per game in 2020 before getting injured.  That would be 340 carries over a 17 game season.  FootballOutsiders study that showed that whenever a RB has more than 350 carries in a season he is likely to have problems with injures the next year.  So my concerns were both that Mixon had some history of injuries and also that it looked like he might have 340 carries in 2021.

Mixon ended up with a creer high in carries, but it was only 292, but he added another 67 in the postseason.  359 total.  However those 359 carries were spread out over 20 games instead of the 16 game seasons FootballOutsiders were analyzing.  I don't know if the average per game matters or just the raw total.  Mixon still looked healthy in his final game.  He held up fine this year, but the question is will his 359 carries make it more likely that he will have problems with injury in 2022.

It should be noted that FootballOutsiders found that "receptions" did not have the same effect on RBs as "carries".  A high number of receptions did not seem to wear a RB down as much as the same number of carries.  So it is interesting to note that over his last 6 games  (Bal and KC in regular season then 4 postseason) Mixon averaged 5.2 receptions but only 16.1 carries.  Over a 17 game season that is only 275 carries, but with 88 receptions (363 total).  

Mixon sat out the Browns game.  If you project his totals from 16 games to 17 games you get almost exactly the same number of total touches (355), but with a lot more carries (310) and fewer receptions (45).  Getting Mixon the same number of touches, but with more of them as receptions might help keep him healthy longer.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

I agree, need to use Mixon more in the passing game and not just as a runner. This is why I believe either Perine needs
to come back or we need to seriously look at adding another bruiser type back that can pick up the blitz and catch the
ball out of the backfield. Need to look for one of these types in the Draft. Not many are thinking about this. I do believe
Mixon will have his best season behind this OL but a RB's career as a bell cow is not a long one.

Evans is a scat back and another Receiver, I doubt he could handle a lot of carries like Mixon or Perine can.

[*Go Cards*]

(03-24-2022, 08:00 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: I agree, need to use Mixon more in the passing game and not just as a runner. This is why I believe either Perine needs
to come back or we need to seriously look at adding another bruiser type back that can pick up the blitz and catch the
ball out of the backfield. Need to look for one of these types in the Draft. Not many are thinking about this. I do believe
Mixon will have his best season behind this OL but a RB's career as a bell cow is not a long one.

Evans is a scat back and another Receiver, I doubt he could handle a lot of carries like Mixon or Perine can.

Agree completely and have been saying all along we need to draft a RB for insurance and to help alleviate some of Mixon's load. 

As already pointed out he had a lot of carries last year and that will probably increase this year without help.

[basballguy]

(03-24-2022, 08:00 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: I agree, need to use Mixon more in the passing game and not just as a runner. This is why I believe either Perine needs
to come back or we need to seriously look at adding another bruiser type back that can pick up the blitz and catch the
ball out of the backfield. Need to look for one of these types in the Draft. Not many are thinking about this. I do believe
Mixon will have his best season behind this OL but a RB's career as a bell cow is not a long one.

Evans is a scat back and another Receiver, I doubt he could handle a lot of carries like Mixon or Perine can.

(03-24-2022, 09:00 PM)Go Cards Wrote: Agree completely and have been saying all along we need to draft a RB for insurance and to help alleviate some of Mixon's load. 

As already pointed out he had a lot of carries last year and that will probably increase this year without help.

I don't think Evans has really ever had the opportunity to show whether or not he can handle a load.  He looked fine in the limited touches he got this season.   I know he wasn't used regularly at Michigan for one reason or another, but maybe someone with more knowledge can chime in?

[Shake n Blake]

I brought this up last year and got roasted.

I'd like to see the carries be more evenly distributed.

Instead of 85/15 in favor of Mixon, something closer to 70/30.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(03-24-2022, 09:00 PM)Go Cards Wrote: Agree completely and have been saying all along we need to draft a RB for insurance and to help alleviate some of Mixon's load. 

As already pointed out he had a lot of carries last year and that will probably increase this year without help.

He has Evans but that isn't enough, Trayveon Williams hasn't done anything and neither are backs that can pound the rock.

I liked Patrick last year that got snatched up by the 49ers, we need to add someone a little in the middle.

I think it is coming in the Draft. I love Breece Hall but I don't know where he is projected to go right now, he the top back IMO.

(03-24-2022, 09:27 PM)basballguy Wrote: I don't think Evans has really ever had the opportunity to show whether or not he can handle a load.  He looked fine in the limited touches he got this season.   I know he wasn't used regularly at Michigan for one reason or another, but maybe someone with more knowledge can chime in?

He is like Gio man, same build, maybe a little skinnier, explosive, great hands. 

Love the guy, but I don't know if he can handle the load either.

(03-24-2022, 09:39 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: I brought this up last year and got roasted.

I'd like to see the carries be more evenly distributed.

Instead of 85/15 in favor of Mixon, something closer to 70/30.

Why did you get roasted? I didn't and had the same concerns about wearing Mixon down?

[sandwedge]

(03-24-2022, 08:00 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: I agree, need to use Mixon more in the passing game and not just as a runner. This is why I believe either Perine needs
to come back or we need to seriously look at adding another bruiser type back that can pick up the blitz and catch the
ball out of the backfield. Need to look for one of these types in the Draft. Not many are thinking about this. I do believe
Mixon will have his best season behind this OL but a RB's career as a bell cow is not a long one.e the

Evans is a scat back and another Receiver, I doubt he could handle a lot of carries like Mixon or Perine can.

I like the RB from Alabama, Brian Robinson Jr.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(03-24-2022, 10:30 PM)sandwedge Wrote: I like the RB from Alabama, Brian Robinson Jr.

Rock on Wedge, will check him out.

[fredtoast]

(03-24-2022, 10:01 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Trayveon Williams hasn't done anything 

I am an SEC fan and he looked good in college.  Really disappointed he has not shown more for the Bengals.  Seems to be injured all the time.

[*ochocincos*]

(03-24-2022, 10:30 PM)sandwedge Wrote: I like the RB from Alabama, Brian Robinson Jr.

100%
Dude is a hoss.
He can run, catch passes, and block.

[Shake n Blake]

(03-24-2022, 10:01 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Why did you get roasted? I didn't and had the same concerns about wearing Mixon down?

It was really just a couple people. Some really don't like Perine.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(03-24-2022, 09:39 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: I brought this up last year and got roasted.

I'd like to see the carries be more evenly distributed.

Instead of 85/15 in favor of Mixon, something closer to 70/30.

Mixon had 77% of the RB carries in 2021. If you look at both carries and receptions, Mixon was at 72% of the RB touches in 2021. So he's already almost right where you wanted him.

My concern with Mixon is more how actually valuable is he to the team if he can't be on the field for both 3rd down and during 2 minute drills? That's when you really need to win a game. In the Super Bowl, the last time Mixon touched the ball was with 6:55 left in the game. 1:25 left in the game, need to drive for a FG to tie, and I don't think he ever saw the field.

You can find other (cheaper) 2 down RBs to run for 4.1 YPC for you.

Also there's not much point in being overly cautious with a RB workload. There's overwhelming odds that he'll fall off quickly. So use them while their talent is still there and then replace them.

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-breaking-down-fact-and-fiction-about-how-and-when-nfl-running-backs-begin-to-regress-2021

Quote:FICTION: RUNNING BACKS BURN OUT AFTER RECEIVING A HEAVY WORKLOAD THE YEAR BEFORE

[fredtoast]

(03-24-2022, 11:03 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: You can find other (cheaper) 2 down RBs 

Mixon is more than a "2 down RB".  He had as many third down carries as all the other RBs combined.  He also had 6 receptions on third down converting 4 of them into first downs.

(03-24-2022, 11:03 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: to run for 4.1 YPC for you.

Not behind the lines Mixon has had.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(03-24-2022, 10:48 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I am an SEC fan and he looked good in college.  Really disappointed he has not shown more for the Bengals.  Seems to be injured all the time.

Yeah, saw Trayveon at A&M myself just tear up the nation, thought he would be a great RB for us, not just a PS player at best.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(03-24-2022, 10:49 PM)ochocincos Wrote: 100%
Dude is a hoss.
He can run, catch passes, and block.

Already like this Brian Robinson Jr for us then. Gonna look for some vids tomorrow.

[fredtoast]

(03-24-2022, 11:03 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-breaking-down-fact-and-fiction-about-how-and-when-nfl-running-backs-begin-to-regress-2021

FICTION: RUNNING BACKS BURN OUT AFTER RECEIVING A HEAVY WORKLOAD THE YEAR BEFORE

They are using an "efficiency" measure called "rushing yards over expected". It is measured "per carry".

What the FootballOutsiders study found was that players missed more time with injury. You would have to look at "totals" instead of efficiency ratings to see if that was true.

[fredtoast]

(03-24-2022, 11:28 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Yeah, saw Trayveon at A&M myself just tear up the nation, thought he would be a great RB for us, not just a PS player at best.

he was a sixth rounder because he lacked top end speed and did not have a lot of moves to make players miss.  But he had great balance and ran very strong for his size.  He could plant and cut on a dime to hit a hole.  He could catch and even block.

[grampahol]

We all know or at least most of us know that running backs don't typically have long, storied careers in the league so I have to wonder just how much tread is left on Mixon after having to run behind so many crappy o-lines. This will be the first chance he's had to have bulls clearing paths regularly. 
He might just be one of the few that can handle a decade or more of service, but if I had to bet my life on it I'd take my chances with a corrupted blackjack dealer first.    

[*SHRacerX*]

(03-24-2022, 06:40 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Before this season started one of my biggest concerns was Mixon's health.  He had only played 6 games in 2020 and had also missed a couple of games in each of his first two seasons.

It was also a concern that he had averaged 20 carries per game in 2020 before getting injured.  That would be 340 carries over a 17 game season.  FootballOutsiders study that showed that whenever a RB has more than 350 carries in a season he is likely to have problems with injures the next year.  So my concerns were both that Mixon had some history of injuries and also that it looked like he might have 340 carries in 2021.

Mixon ended up with a creer high in carries, but it was only 292, but he added another 67 in the postseason.  359 total.  However those 359 carries were spread out over 20 games instead of the 16 game seasons FootballOutsiders were analyzing.  I don't know if the average per game matters or just the raw total.  Mixon still looked healthy in his final game.  He held up fine this year, but the question is will his 359 carries make it more likely that he will have problems with injury in 2022.

It should be noted that FootballOutsiders found that "receptions" did not have the same effect on RBs as "carries".  A high number of receptions did not seem to wear a RB down as much as the same number of carries.  So it is interesting to note that over his last 6 games  (Bal and KC in regular season then 4 postseason) Mixon averaged 5.2 receptions but only 16.1 carries.  Over a 17 game season that is only 275 carries, but with 88 receptions (363 total).  

Mixon sat out the Browns game.  If you project his totals from 16 games to 17 games you get almost exactly the same number of total touches (355), but with a lot more carries (310) and fewer receptions (45).  Getting Mixon the same number of touches, but with more of them as receptions might help keep him healthy longer.

I think they will be looking to upgrade Perine's position as well as giving Evans more opportunities to help split carries and keep him healthy (fresh...health can imply no injuries and that is always a risk) throughout the season.  

As far as receptions, he still seems below average in blitz pickup which seems to always limit his opportunities.  

It amazes me that Gio was better in this respect, yet Mixon is a much bigger and seemingly tougher guy.  

[Rubekahn29]

We definitely need to have him split more carries. I’d love to see Evans touch the ball more. He just seems to have a fluidity to his motion and seems tough to tackle.