Judging Huber

[fredtoast]

Punting stats can be confusing.

For many years all people looked at was average yards per punt.  But everyone knows it is better to have a 45 yd punt with a lot of hang time than a 50 yard line drive.  So then they started subtracting the return yards from the punting yards and coming up with a "net average".  I know some punters have better punt coverage teams, but it is clear that there are usually more return yards on line drive punts no matter how good the coverage.

But "net average" ignores "touchbacks" even though each one has the equivalent of a huge 20 yard return (more than twice the length of an average punt return).  It seems like an some "statheads" would already be calculating "net average" including touchbacks, but I can't find it anywhere.  However I did find "touchback percentage"

Then there is the skill of the "coffin corner" kick or any punt keeping the opponent inside the 20.  I swear that I used to see stats on "inside the 10" but now all I can find is "inside the 20".  And, of course, you can't just look at the total number of punts inside the 20 but instead the "inside 20 percentage".

So let's look at Huber.

Total punts................10th (66)  A lot of people forget that for a big part of the season our offense was terribly inconsistent scoring on big plays but also having a lot of "3-and-outs".

Punting average..........14th (46.4)

Net average................13th (41.0)

Inside 20 percentage...27th (31.7%) League leader is usually around 50%

Touchback percentage..24th (7.3%) Only 5 punters had more touchbacks than Huber.

"Touchbacks" to "inside 20s"...28th (.273) Out of 33 punters with at least 35 punts.

Anyone have any other punting stats?  I am much more impressed with "inside the 10" than "inside the 20" and I know I have seen those stats in the past.

[fredtoast]

(04-14-2022, 01:10 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Total punts................10th (66)  A lot of people forget that for a big part of the season our offense was terribly inconsistent scoring on big plays but also having a lot of "3-and-outs".

Looked it up.  They finished 17th in "Drive Success Rate"  (percentage of drives that have a first down or touchdown).  I believe they were in the high 20's at one point in the season.  

[Science Friction]

I haven't analyzed his stats over the past few seasons but Huber seems to have been on the decline for awhile now. Last season, I was frustrated by him a lot. A Superbowl-calibur team needs a better punter. I hope we find a better answer than Huber. 

[leonardfan40]

(04-14-2022, 01:10 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Anyone have any other punting stats?  I am much more impressed with "inside the 10" than "inside the 20" and I know I have seen those stats in the past.

That’s what was most disappointing to me about Huber this year. I would like to see that stat as well, but it felt like he had a lot of punts that were relatively short and only pinned teams to the 17 yard line or so. Like he was afraid to try to actually try to pin them deep and was just aiming for the 20. The risk/reward of punting to the 17 or risking a touchback by trying to pin them closer to the 10 definitely favors trying to pin them deep. At worst you lose 3-4 yards on the touchback.

[Au165]

Part of the issue with things like touchbacks is it relies on gunners to down before rolling in, so it’s always tough to put that squarely on a punter as it’s more complicated than that. That said, I still think we should be moving on.

[Truck_1_0_1_]

He was fine last year. People remember the SB and think he had a terrible year, but again, he was middle of the pack or so.

Also, Fred, if you're going to include inside 20 punts, you should also include where they punted from (I know there isn't a stat for this): a lot harder to pin inside the 20 if you're punting from your own 10.

And I just found this article to back that up: http://insidethepylon.com/film-study/film-study-nfl/special-teams-film-study-nfl/2016/09/16/punting-statistics-can-lie/

It's why people swooning over Araiza need to look at things other than stats; more-important than net or inside 20, is the CONSISTENCY of the punts.

This involves a much-deeper dive into punters' play, that stats cannot represent.

ALL that being said however, I'm absolutely ready to move on if the team feels so: I'm not gangbusters on Chrisman, but I do feel he's our punter for the next decade.

Time will tell.

[2MinutesHate]

(04-14-2022, 10:22 AM)Au165 Wrote: Part of the issue with things like touchbacks is it relies on gunners to down before rolling in, so it’s always tough to put that squarely on a punter as it’s more complicated than that. That said, I still think we should be moving on.

Agreed.  Everyone knows a bad punt when they see one (those 20 yard ones are definitely ugly), but how about the direction of the punt in relation to the special teams play called?  Perhaps when he's aiming for the corner it actually goes deeper but straight?  It's likely that only Darrin Simmons and Zac Taylor know how good or bad Huber really is.  

Huber is getting up there in age and I do think the stats can help guide decision making, but aren't necessarily the whole story.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(04-14-2022, 10:22 AM)Au165 Wrote: Part of the issue with things like touchbacks is it relies on gunners to down before rolling in, so it’s always tough to put that squarely on a punter as it’s more complicated than that. That said, I still think we should be moving on.

No doubt, it is a team game in all phases.

Huber is old for a Punter now too, time to move on before he really falls off.

This is fine. He is our best Punter of all time. But need to keep rolling.

Hopefully our next Punter doesn't have to Punt as often.

[*Go Cards*]

Matt Araiza "SD State"

Longest punting average in NCAA history and kicks FG's in case of an injury and needed in a pinch.

Had a 86 yd punt even and a slew of punts over 60 yds. Only draw back is he punts for distance instead of hang time.

Certain once NFL coaches get ahold of him he'll be hitting the tops of domes and getting plenty of hang time though.

Would love to see him and Evan as our kicker and punter.

[*Go Cards*]

(04-14-2022, 10:25 AM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: He was fine last year. People remember the SB and think he had a terrible year, but again, he was middle of the pack or so.

Also, Fred, if you're going to include inside 20 punts, you should also include where they punted from (I know there isn't a stat for this): a lot harder to pin inside the 20 if you're punting from your own 10.

And I just found this article to back that up: http://insidethepylon.com/film-study/film-study-nfl/special-teams-film-study-nfl/2016/09/16/punting-statistics-can-lie/

It's why people swooning over Araiza need to look at things other than stats; more-important than net or inside 20, is the CONSISTENCY of the punts.

This involves a much-deeper dive into punters' play, that stats cannot represent.

ALL that being said however, I'm absolutely ready to move on if the team feels so: I'm not gangbusters on Chrisman, but I do feel he's our punter for the next decade.

Time will tell.

Agree but think NFL coaching will take care of this problem imo. The kids leg is electric, he just needs to harness it. 

Yet will let the coaches figure out if he can be coached up or not and worth a draft pick because I don't believe he will go un-drafted. 

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(04-14-2022, 04:05 PM)Go Cards Wrote: Matt Araiza "SD State"

Longest punting average in NCAA history and kicks FG's in case of an injury and needed in a pinch.

Had a 86 yd punt even and a slew of punts over 60 yds. Only draw back is he punts for distance instead of hang time.

Certain once NFL coaches get ahold of him he'll be hitting the tops of domes and getting plenty of hang time though.

Would love to see him and Evan as our kicker and punter.

(04-14-2022, 04:13 PM)Go Cards Wrote: Agree but think NFL coaching will take care of this problem imo. The kids leg is electric, he just needs to harness it. 

Yet will let the coaches figure out if he can be coached up or not and worth a draft pick because I don't believe he will go un-drafted. 

Well you can't teach leg strength. But in the end I would rather have a Punter like prime Huber over just a monster leg as I 
doubt we will be backed up much with our improved O-line and this Offense now. I would like a Punter like Huber used to be 
that can coffin corner the other team or drop it at the 1 yard line and allow us to get after QB's for Safeties.

I guess the guy we got right now Drue Chrisman or whatever his name is is supposed to be good.

All I know is he was at Ohio State, so he didn't have to Punt much.

[*michaelsean*]

Does inside the 20 take into account how many punts you can get inside the 20? If you are punting from you own 30 or behind, you're not downing those inside the 20.

[*rfaulk34*]

(04-14-2022, 10:25 AM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: He was fine last year. People remember the SB and think he had a terrible year, but again, he was middle of the pack or so.

Also, Fred, if you're going to include inside 20 punts, you should also include where they punted from (I know there isn't a stat for this): a lot harder to pin inside the 20 if you're punting from your own 10.

And I just found this article to back that up: http://insidethepylon.com/film-study/film-study-nfl/special-teams-film-study-nfl/2016/09/16/punting-statistics-can-lie/

It's why people swooning over Araiza need to look at things other than stats; more-important than net or inside 20, is the CONSISTENCY of the punts.

This involves a much-deeper dive into punters' play, that stats cannot represent.

ALL that being said however, I'm absolutely ready to move on if the team feels so: I'm not gangbusters on Chrisman, but I do feel he's our punter for the next decade.

Time will tell.

POMY

Percentage Of Maximum Yards. I was just sitting here wondering how to gauge what a punter does on his own merit. The closest thing i could think of was pomy. This is the maximum amount of yards a punter could kick the ball to down it at the 1 and how far he kicked the ball until it landed or was caught. Say the LOS is your own 40 yard line. That means you have 59 yards to kick the ball in order to down it at the 1. If you kick it and it's fair caught or caught by your teammate at the 20, that means you've kicked it 40 yards of the maximum 59 and you have a 'percentage to maximum' of 67.7 

Touchbacks are sketchy because you could kick a really nice ball and someone on SP could screw up and not down it before it goes in the EZ...but i don't think that happens enough to skewer the numbers. This is a raw percentage of what a punter does when he has (X) amount of yards to down the ball at the 1 (optimal). 

Each punt has its own percentage and the total # of punts have their percentage, plus i've added the average distance to the optimal punt (distance from the 1 yard line). 

I went through the play by play of the Bengals V Vikes game this past year and the Raiders punter V the Ravens in week one. 
The first two numbers are yards from the LOS to the 1 yard line and the actual distance of the punt, which gives you the percentage of yards to the optimal punt. Underneath each section is the total yards to optimal as well as the total yards of the actual distance and their percentage and then the average distance punted from the optimal. 

huber(bengals)- v vikes
59/40 67.7%
56/47 83.9%
45/37 82.2%
74/43 58.1%
46/42 91.3%
63/43 68.2%
85/61 71.7%
----------
428/313 73.1% --  avg distance (yds) to opt- 61.1


berry(vikings)- v bengals
60/39 65.0
75/46 61.3
97/49 50.5
73/61 83.5
60/52 86.6
58/41 70.6
75/51 68.0
72/63 87.5
----------
570/402 70.5% --  avg distance (yds) to opt- 71.3


cole(raiders)- v ravens
42/35 83.3
75/63 84.0
71/67 94.3
75/50 66.6
95/64 67.3
55/37 67.2
----------
413/316 76.5% --  avg distance (yds) to opt- 68.8


Did any of that make sense?

[Mike M (the other one)]

(04-14-2022, 11:19 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: POMY

Percentage Of Maximum Yards. I was just sitting here wondering how to gauge what a punter does on his own merit. The closest thing i could think of was pomy. This is the maximum amount of yards a punter could kick the ball to down it at the 1 and how far he kicked the ball until it landed or was caught. Say the LOS is your own 40 yard line. That means you have 59 yards to kick the ball in order to down it at the 1. If you kick it and it's fair caught or caught by your teammate at the 20, that means you've kicked it 40 yards of the maximum 59 and you have a 'percentage to maximum' of 67.7 

Touchbacks are sketchy because you could kick a really nice ball and someone on SP could screw up and not down it before it goes in the EZ...but i don't think that happens enough to skewer the numbers. This is a raw percentage of what a punter does when he has (X) amount of yards to down the ball at the 1 (optimal). 

Each punt has its own percentage and the total # of punts have their percentage, plus i've added the average distance to the optimal punt (distance from the 1 yard line). 

I went through the play by play of the Bengals V Vikes game this past year and the Raiders punter V the Ravens in week one. 
The first two numbers are yards from the LOS to the 1 yard line and the actual distance of the punt, which gives you the percentage of yards to the optimal punt. Underneath each section is the total yards to optimal as well as the total yards of the actual distance and their percentage and then the average distance punted from the optimal. 

huber(bengals)- v vikes
59/40 67.7%
56/47 83.9%
45/37 82.2%
74/43 58.1%
46/42 91.3%
63/43 68.2%
85/61 71.7%
----------
428/313 73.1% --  avg distance (yds) to opt- 61.1


berry(vikings)- v bengals
60/39 65.0
75/46 61.3
97/49 50.5
73/61 83.5
60/52 86.6
58/41 70.6
75/51 68.0
72/63 87.5
----------
570/402 70.5% --  avg distance (yds) to opt- 71.3


cole(raiders)- v ravens
42/35 83.3
75/63 84.0
71/67 94.3
75/50 66.6
95/64 67.3
55/37 67.2
----------
413/316 76.5% --  avg distance (yds) to opt- 68.8


Did any of that make sense?

Makes some sense. as an adjustment, did you remove return yardage from those punts? 
Hard to blame the punter if guys don't stop the returner, just a thought.

[fredtoast]

(04-14-2022, 11:19 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Did any of that make sense?

I see what you were trying to do, but I also see a big hole in it.

Why should a 50 yard punt from my own 10 be worth less than a 50 yard punt from my own 20?

[Mike M (the other one)]

(04-15-2022, 10:29 AM)fredtoast Wrote: I see what you were trying to do, but I also see a big hole in it.

Why should a 50 yard punt from my own 10 be worth less than a 50 yard punt from my own 20?

That's not a "big" hole. Seriously, it's about a 1.25% diff... There will never be a Perfect measuring stick so why you gotta nit-pick at everything?

[*rfaulk34*]

(04-15-2022, 09:06 AM)Mike M (the other one) Wrote: Makes some sense. as an adjustment, did you remove return yardage from those punts? 
Hard to blame the punter if guys don't stop the returner, just a thought.

Yes. That's only kicks from the LoS to where it was caught or downed. To try and gauge, punter to punter, how they maximize field position with the distance they have to work with. It's striclty a, 'what position did the punter put us in', in regards to where it was downed or the return began. 

[*rfaulk34*]

(04-15-2022, 10:29 AM)fredtoast Wrote: I see what you were trying to do, but I also see a big hole in it.

Why should a 50 yard punt from my own 10 be worth less than a 50 yard punt from my own 20?

It definitely has some holes and i'm still trying to figure out how to compare punters based on the numbers but...it's not about which punt is more or less (better/worse). It's strictly based on, wherever the punter is, how close did he come to getting the ball downed on the opponents 1 yard line (what i would call, the perfect punt). That's why i call it 'Percentage of Maximum Yards'. How much, or how close, did he come to the max yards before a touchback.

Longer punts--from your own 10--are going to inherently result in a lower percentage, in the vast majority of cases. That's why i included AJ Cole from the Raiders. He had something like a 50yd average last year and in that game, he had three 60+ yard punts out of 6 total punts.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

Thanks for that Rfaulk a lot of research went into that. I am too lazy to post something like it lol

[TheUberHuber]

(04-14-2022, 04:05 PM)Go Cards Wrote: Matt Araiza "SD State"

Longest punting average in NCAA history and kicks FG's in case of an injury and needed in a pinch.

Had a 86 yd punt even and a slew of punts over 60 yds. Only draw back is he punts for distance instead of hang time.

Certain once NFL coaches get ahold of him he'll be hitting the tops of domes and getting plenty of hang time though.

Would love to see him and Evan as our kicker and punter.

Just saw this the other day. this kid can kick the ball. 

https://youtu.be/JPlvF6owtqk