Trade down?

[WVUHomer]

If one of the top QBs, WRs or OL falls to 31, do you trade down? How far? What trade value would you consider?

Personally, I'd prefer trading down regardless an hope to get a mid 2nd+3rd (even if i had to chip a little extra from a future pick) like around SEA or ATL. With those picks, I'd target Cross S, McBride TE, CTB CB, then hopefully Cam Jurgens OC in that order.

[puddycat]

I like the early day 2 and late day 2 picks. I also see some late rd 4 - early round 6 players. To be honest, a swing and miss at 31 is not the end of the world if we get some useful low-snap role players.

[phil413]

(04-13-2022, 11:22 PM)WVUHomer Wrote: If one of the top QBs, WRs or OL falls to 31, do you trade down? How far? What trade value would you consider?

Personally, I'd prefer trading down regardless an hope to get a mid 2nd+3rd (even if i had to chip a little extra from a future pick) like around SEA or ATL. With those picks, I'd target Cross S, McBride TE, CTB CB, then hopefully Cam Jurgens OC in that order.

Yeah I'm on team trade down and had the same teams you mentioned would give up more capital if they thought a remaining QB was their guy.

Of course you take clear BPA at 31 if a solid player falls, but more likely there is a lot of depth at positions they'd be looking to target if things are close.  Say you get Atlanta to give up 50 chart points in a swap down to 43, picking up pick 82.  I had this scenario in another thread:

43: You don't draft for need, but the quicker they check UT and CB off the board the better, especially with them needing an NFL ready UT and CB.  I think they'll sign a ring chasing vet at CB, allowing for a project CB at some point.  They like McBride, he could go here (may not be there at 63) but I like the depth of the TE class, as well as at DT.  

Pick: Kyler Gordon CB Washington -  Athlete with great physical tools that should slip here being more of a work in progress.  CB is a high money position and they'll need stability here long term, he could still be a weapon as a rookie though as a dime back and has blitz upside. 

63: The trade allows you to pretty much open this up to any position.  Some of yal toying with WR or RB or something could do so and still recover at other positions, or double down at a position.  

Pick: DeMarvin Leal DT/DE Texas A&M - effective motor as a 3-4 DE should translate to a potent UT behind Hill and even slide outside if need be for when they want to let Ossai or Hubbard roam around. If they don't get Larry to somehow come back, the remaining FA options don't look great so this is a win-win pick with Leal not being a reach here.  Could just as well go Logan Hall here too if he's here.  

82:  Greg Dulcich TE UCLA If things are close, could go OL or TE but there are just too many TE's closely ranked here.  Safety could very well be an option here as well.  I would wait for the TE, I don't think Cincy does.  I'm split on this guy, I really don't like how poor his blocking is.  Cincy has a visit and he could be a unique guy as a TE that can hit the seam.  He could eventually be the third option when Tee gets a pay day (Boyd moves outside) or less likely they keep him and move Boyd.  Short term, he could be a big time weapon in the passing game.  Again, I prefer waiting and getting more of a balanced type.  

95:  Cole Strange OG/C Tennessee-Chattanooga - I think the trade down scenario is summed up here, it changes their current draft plan.  Cincy likely has a lower priority on LG thank what some of us have, with Jackson the possible starter and we talk about Quinton being unsigned as an option.  They also had Salyer in for a visit as a jack of all trades master of none type.  Strange is an NFL ready zone run blocking type at LG with some versatility at center.  I keep trying to see if there is a OT/OG type for value of the position but more likely Smith is groomed as 3rd tackle and Strange/Carman battle it out.  
 
136:  Kerby Joseph FS Illinois - He doesn't have the versatility that others in the class have, but makes a lot of sense to groom to be ready to replace Bates III here.  Has descent measurables, moves hips well and high points.   

174:  Abraham Smith RB Baylor - Battering ram with ability to block, could be a ST ace as well.  With the incoming vet OL's being a bit better at run blocking that pass blocking they're gearing that way so you'll need another back on the active roster.

209: Danny Gray WR SMU - Solid developmental guy that can play inside and outside, needs to add strength. 

226: Jordan Stout P PSU - Gets good hang time and solid pooch punts.  Doubles as a kicker if Money Mac gets a cheap shot from a Steeler or gets gets benched for a quarter for sneaking off to the half time show to the SB we will be in.   

252: Jeremiah Moon LB Florida - Developmental athlete that transitioned well to LB but has to hang on PS

[WVUHomer]

(04-14-2022, 02:12 AM)phil413 Wrote: Yeah I'm on team trade down and had the same teams you mentioned would give up more capital if they thought a remaining QB was their guy.

Of course you take clear BPA at 31 if a solid player falls, but more likely there is a lot of depth at positions they'd be looking to target if things are close.  Say you get Atlanta to give up 50 chart points in a swap down to 43, picking up pick 82.  I had this scenario in another thread:

43: You don't draft for need, but the quicker they check UT and CB off the board the better, especially with them needing an NFL ready UT and CB.  I think they'll sign a ring chasing vet at CB, allowing for a project CB at some point.  They like McBride, he could go here (may not be there at 63) but I like the depth of the TE class, as well as at DT.  

Pick: Kyler Gordon CB Washington -  Athlete with great physical tools that should slip here being more of a work in progress.  CB is a high money position and they'll need stability here long term, he could still be a weapon as a rookie though as a dime back and has blitz upside. 

63: The trade allows you to pretty much open this up to any position.  Some of yal toying with WR or RB or something could do so and still recover at other positions, or double down at a position.  

Pick: DeMarvin Leal DT/DE Texas A&M - effective motor as a 3-4 DE should translate to a potent UT behind Hill and even slide outside if need be for when they want to let Ossai or Hubbard roam around. If they don't get Larry to somehow come back, the remaining FA options don't look great so this is a win-win pick with Leal not being a reach here.  Could just as well go Logan Hall here too if he's here.  

82:  Greg Dulcich TE UCLA If things are close, could go OL or TE but there are just too many TE's closely ranked here.  Safety could very well be an option here as well.  I would wait for the TE, I don't think Cincy does.  I'm split on this guy, I really don't like how poor his blocking is.  Cincy has a visit and he could be a unique guy as a TE that can hit the seam.  He could eventually be the third option when Tee gets a pay day (Boyd moves outside) or less likely they keep him and move Boyd.  Short term, he could be a big time weapon in the passing game.  Again, I prefer waiting and getting more of a balanced type.  

95:  Cole Strange OG/C Tennessee-Chattanooga - I think the trade down scenario is summed up here, it changes their current draft plan.  Cincy likely has a lower priority on LG thank what some of us have, with Jackson the possible starter and we talk about Quinton being unsigned as an option.  They also had Salyer in for a visit as a jack of all trades master of none type.  Strange is an NFL ready zone run blocking type at LG with some versatility at center.  I keep trying to see if there is a OT/OG type for value of the position but more likely Smith is groomed as 3rd tackle and Strange/Carman battle it out.  
 
136:  Kerby Joseph FS Illinois - He doesn't have the versatility that others in the class have, but makes a lot of sense to groom to be ready to replace Bates III here.  Has descent measurables, moves hips well and high points.   

174:  Abraham Smith RB Baylor - Battering ram with ability to block, could be a ST ace as well.  With the incoming vet OL's being a bit better at run blocking that pass blocking they're gearing that way so you'll need another back on the active roster.

209: Danny Gray WR SMU - Solid developmental guy that can play inside and outside, needs to add strength. 

226: Jordan Stout P PSU - Gets good hang time and solid pooch punts.  Doubles as a kicker if Money Mac gets a cheap shot from a Steeler or gets gets benched for a quarter for sneaking off to the half time show to the SB we will be in.   

252: Jeremiah Moon LB Florida - Developmental athlete that transitioned well to LB but has to hang on PS

Like the draft. Solid picks even if they aren't the ones I'd make.

Kerby was receiving 2nd round buzz early in the process but has cooled off. Not sure his tackling would make Lou feel safe but he has the range and ball skills to compensate a bit. Not sure what I feel about Leal as I've heard a lot of negatives. I haven't watched any of his tape so take that fwiw.

[Bengalpool]

I'm a huge fan of the trade down scenario unless someone like Booth or Linderbaum fall.

[WVUHomer]

(04-14-2022, 08:15 AM)Bengalpool Wrote: I'm a huge fan of the trade down scenario unless someone like Booth or Linderbaum fall.

I like Booth but I'm indifferent towards Linderbaum as I haven't looked at him much considering our OL was revamped and I just don't see them not giving Carman every opportunity this year to start at LG. 

Honestly, I'd still prefer trading down to Booth, but that has to do with my slight man crushes on both Cross and CTB. Their tackling and range make me feel confident in their ability to start/excel in the NFL.

[leonardfan40]

I’m all for trading down, however if a top 5 WR falls I’m taking him as they are just too valuable. Trading down to the 40-50 range is the sweet spot imo. Could get us 1-2 more 2nd-4th rounders which is the part of this draft I really like the depth in. Load up on good day one backups who have the potential to develop into affordable starters down the line as our cap becomes more of a problem in future years. We will need great depth from drafts starting now if this team will compete long term.

[*ochocincos*]

(04-14-2022, 09:13 AM)WVUHomer Wrote: I like Booth but I'm indifferent towards Linderbaum as I haven't looked at him much considering our OL was revamped and I just don't see them not giving Carman every opportunity this year to start at LG. 

Honestly, I'd still prefer trading down to Booth, but that has to do with my slight man crushes on both Cross and CTB. Their tackling and range make me feel confident in their ability to start/excel in the NFL.

Bengals at least need to look at some mid-round OL, if anything.

Here's who could be starting if an injury to the starters occur:
Prince (OT only)
Smith (OT/OG)
Adeniji (OT/OG)
Hill ©
Gaillard (C/G)

I don't think anyone wants to see Prince on the field or Adeniji (at OG at least).

[WVUHomer]

(04-14-2022, 10:04 AM)ochocincos Wrote: Bengals at least need to look at some mid-round OL, if anything.

Here's who could be starting if an injury to the starters occur:
Prince (OT only)
Smith (OT/OG)
Adeniji (OT/OG)
Hill ©
Gaillard (C/G)

I don't think anyone wants to see Prince on the field or Adeniji (at OG at least).

I'm all for 4-7th round depth players but when you replace by buying 3/4 of the bad spots on the OL and have a 2nd rd player waiting in the wings, I personally just can't justify a high draft pick to it this year. If Jackson flames out, next year sure but this year we have to give him the opportunity to start at its fullest.

A Cam Jurgens, Donovan West, Cade Mays, Nick Ford, Kellen Diesch, Zach Tom, Logan Bruss. If you can get one or more of these developmental guys in rounds 4-7, I'd still feel better about the depth.

[*ochocincos*]

(04-14-2022, 10:12 AM)WVUHomer Wrote: I'm all for 4-7th round depth players but when you replace by buying 3/4 of the bad spots on the OL and have a 2nd rd player waiting in the wings, I personally just can't justify a high draft pick to it this year. If Jackson flames out, next year sure but this year we have to give him the opportunity to start at its fullest.

A Cam Jurgens, Donovan West, Cade Mays, Nick Ford, Kellen Diesch, Zach Tom, Logan Bruss. If you can get one or more of these developmental guys in rounds 4-7, I'd still feel better about the depth.

That's about where I lean too. The only guys I'd make exception for would be Linderbaum, Johnson, or Green.

But I usually am of the mindset that if you're going to take someone in Rd 1, your goal should be for them to be starting sometime by their 2nd season.
Add a year for Rd 2 pick, and add another for Rd 3 pick.

Since Carman is only entering Year 2, I'd be ok adding a 1-year stopgap veteran like Spain or Flowers. Neither should cost more than $2-3 mill at this point, and that's still a cheap price for the first IOL off the bench if Carman did happen to win the battle.

[WVUHomer]

(04-14-2022, 10:27 AM)ochocincos Wrote: That's about where I lean too. The only guys I'd make exception for would be Linderbaum, Johnson, or Green.

But I usually am of the mindset that if you're going to take someone in Rd 1, your goal should be for them to be starting sometime by their 2nd season.
Add a year for Rd 2 pick, and add another for Rd 3 pick.

Since Carman is only entering Year 2, I'd be ok adding a 1-year stopgap veteran like Spain or Flowers. Neither should cost more than $2-3 mill at this point, and that's still a cheap price for the first IOL off the bench if Carman did happen to win the battle.

By adding one of those 3 though, wouldn't that put Carman as never staring until after his contract since we signed everyone to 3 year deals. Unless you're considering Carman to replace Jonah after this year.

[*ochocincos*]

(04-14-2022, 12:15 PM)WVUHomer Wrote: By adding one of those 3 though, wouldn't that put Carman as never staring until after his contract since we signed everyone to 3 year deals. Unless you're considering Carman to replace Jonah after this year.

Oh, I know.
I'd hate to waste a 2nd round pick so quickly.
Which is why I'd only look to potentially do that with someone I was highly confident in was an upgrade.

I don't think Carman has enough length to handle LT duties in the NFL.
People were worried about Jonah Williams with his 33.625" arms, but Carman has even shorter at 32.5".
There's only one starting-caliber OT currently who has shorter than 33" arm length, and it's Braden Smith.
He's definitely the exception to the rule.

[WVUHomer]

(04-14-2022, 12:36 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Oh, I know.
I'd hate to waste a 2nd round pick so quickly.
Which is why I'd only look to potentially do that with someone I was highly confident in was an upgrade.

I don't think Carman has enough length to handle LT duties in the NFL.
People were worried about Jonah Williams with his 33.625" arms, but Carman has even shorter at 32.5".
There's only one starting-caliber OT currently who has shorter than 33" arm length, and it's Braden Smith.
He's definitely the exception to the rule.

Thats why no matter what, I just don't see them taking an OL early. I mean, I guess they could since they have outs on Karras contract after this year (if I remember correct when he signed.