Joe Goodberry - PFF trends of rookie Guards through Year 3

[*ochocincos*]

As usual, Joe Goodberry did some heavy lifting of PFF grades to see if there were any worthwhile trends.

Back in March, he looked to see what the average PFF grade was for rookie Guards with 500+ snaps since 2015 (47 players).
Then he tracked 2nd year, and then 3rd year.
He also added the difference between years 1-2, 2-3, and 1-3.

This data is limited. Obviously limited to PFF grades. Also limited to rookies that actually played their rookie years. This doesn't include the players with less than 500 snaps as rookies.

My method wanted to test how much better rookies got. pic.twitter.com/aDOCpnP4gH

— Goodberry (@JoeGoodberry) March 22, 2022

The average PFF score for rookie guards is 61.0 who played 500+ snaps.
Carman scored a 54.2.
Average PFF score improved by 2.4 from Year 1 to Year 2.
Average grade increase from Year 1 to Year 3 is 3.4.

One other note - There were no instances of rookies under 60.0 getting to 75.0 or higher later.

What this could mean:
- There's optimism that Carman will improve.
- The jump in improvement may not be that much this year or even Year 3 compared to rookie.
- Carman may not get into that upper-tier OG category

One thing to point out though is that Carman actually had a better PFF grade at LG (74.2 run block, 64.3 pass block) compared to RG (59.7 run block, 40.2 pass block).
So there's more reason for optimism if he's on the left side vs right.

[*bengalfan74*]

I'm sure hoping he can play LG much better than he did right. And that he breaks the trend of not much improvement.

[NUGDUKWE]

(04-23-2022, 07:24 PM)ochocincos Wrote: One thing to point out though is that Carman actually had a better PFF grade at LG (74.2 run block, 64.3 pass block) compared to RG (59.7 run block, 40.2 pass block).
So there's more reason for optimism if he's on the left side vs right.

How many games did Carman play at LG? I was just watching the KC game last night were he had to come in for Spain. He was terrible in that game. At least as far as I could tell but it was against Chris Jones but still he was very bad in that game.

In fact after watching that I'm convinced the Bengals need an OL in Rd 1. I still think there's hope for Carman but in no way do I want to plan on him being the starter.

[EatonFan]

I would love Kenyon Green to fall to us.

[Frank Booth]

Health is also a concern with Carman

[Luvnit2]

Did Carman play 500 snaps in 2021? If not, doesn't this make it an irrelevant exercise to try and figure out if can/will progress in 2022?

We don't know who is starting at LG for us or with n knowing health of projected starters, no idea how it will look week #1.

[ElkValleyBengal]

I think it's highly possible Spain will be re-signed if they don't get an early round interior lineman.

[fredtoast]

I need some context. What percentage of all guards grade over 75?

Conner Williams went from a 59 to a 71, but I don't know where either of those grades rank among all OGs.

All I know is that I have seen a lot of young offensive linemen improve a lot from their rookie season. Whitworth and Clint Boling both struggled as rookies. Rich Braham was cut by the Cardinals before we signed him. And those examples are just from one team. I bet there are dozens of other examples across the league.

[*bengalfan74*]

(04-23-2022, 09:03 PM)EatonFan Wrote: I would love Kenyon Green to fall to us.

Me too

[fredtoast]

(04-23-2022, 10:07 PM)ElkValleyBengal Wrote: I think it's highly possible Spain will be re-signed if they don't get an early round interior lineman.

Spain is an enigma.

This year his injury may be the reason he has not signed yet.  But his contract history makes no sense.

In 2017 he started 13 games for the Titans and allowed zero sacks.

In 2018 he started 15 games for the Titans and allowed one sack.

After those back-to-back seasons all he got in free agency was a one-year $2 million deal with the Bills.

In 2019 he started all 16 games for the Bills and only allowed one sack.  After that season he finally got a decent free agent deal (3 yr $15 million), but the Bills released him just 4 games into that contract.

That was when we signed him.  He started 8 games for us at 3 different positions (RT, LG, RG) and seemed to be pretty solid.  Not a top player, but a step up from Su'a-filo/Redmond/John Miller/Jordan/etc.  And we sign him to a one-year deal for only $1.1 million.  That has to be league minimum.  Why were we able to get him so cheap last year?  He was no star, but he seemed to be worth at least 3 to 4 million.  Our long-snapper made more than Spain.

[tms]

I think there are other issues with Carman that go beyond his PFF scores. I mean, they don't even feel comfortable anointing him the starting LG, despite the fact that there's a gaping hole on the line, free agency is over, and they're not looking to use any picks on a lineman. That strikes me as a bit bizarre. It's either a sign that they think he needs motivation, or that they're not sure he's the right guy themselves. Neither one is particularly promising.

I don't know what their plans are for him. Hell, I don't even know what their plans are for Spain, given that he's been working out with a few of the guys (including Burrow) and he hasn't even nibbled at free agency. But the numbers around PFF grades and trends do not apply to Carman right now. Just feels like there's other stuff going on. If he's out there between Jonah and Karras to start the year I'll be surprised.

[pulses]

(04-24-2022, 12:48 AM)tms Wrote: I think there are other issues with Carman that go beyond his PFF scores. I mean, they don't even feel comfortable anointing him the starting LG, despite the fact that there's a gaping hole on the line, free agency is over, and they're not looking to use any picks on a lineman. That strikes me as a bit bizarre. It's either a sign that they think he needs motivation, or that they're not sure he's the right guy themselves. Neither one is particularly promising.

I don't know what their plans are for him. Hell, I don't even know what their plans are for Spain, given that he's been working out with a few of the guys (including Burrow) and he hasn't even nibbled at free agency. But the numbers around PFF grades and trends do not apply to Carman right now. Just feels like there's other stuff going on. If he's out there between Jonah and Karras to start the year I'll be surprised.

I think if a guy like Parham or Strange is there in round 2 they will take one of them.

[tms]

(04-24-2022, 01:00 AM)pulses Wrote: I think if a guy like Parham or Strange is there in round 2 they will take one of them.

I mean I would, but I don't think that's in the cards. They drafted three rookies last year that they couldn't (or wouldn't) shoehorn into the lineup even at a time of great need. I don't know if they have the patience to be developing any more young guys. I might leave room for a near-finished product like Linderbaum or Green slipping through the cracks, but that's about it. I guess we'll see soon enough.  

[CJD]

According to Pro-football-reference.com, Carman only played 462 snaps, so I'm not sure why he wasn't excluded from this list of players who played 500+ snaps in their rookie seasons.

[KillerGoose]

(04-23-2022, 11:04 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Spain is an enigma.

This year his injury may be the reason he has not signed yet.  But his contract history makes no sense.

In 2017 he started 13 games for the Titans and allowed zero sacks.

In 2018 he started 15 games for the Titans and allowed one sack.

After those back-to-back seasons all he got in free agency was a one-year $2 million deal with the Bills.

In 2019 he started all 16 games for the Bills and only allowed one sack.  After that season he finally got a decent free agent deal (3 yr $15 million), but the Bills released him just 4 games into that contract.

That was when we signed him.  He started 8 games for us at 3 different positions (RT, LG, RG) and seemed to be pretty solid.  Not a top player, but a step up from Su'a-filo/Redmond/John Miller/Jordan/etc.  And we sign him to a one-year deal for only $1.1 million.  That has to be league minimum.  Why were we able to get him so cheap last year?  He was no star, but he seemed to be worth at least 3 to 4 million.  Our long-snapper made more than Spain.

To add onto this post, Spain had the 19th best pressure allowed percentage out of all G's in the league. He allowed five sacks on 995 snaps. He was, and has been good but his contracts don't reflect this. I don't get it either. 

[Mike M (the other one)]

(04-24-2022, 08:16 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: To add onto this post, Spain had the 19th best pressure allowed percentage out of all G's in the league. He allowed five sacks on 995 snaps. He was, and has been good but his contracts don't reflect this. I don't get it either. 

yep, Fred made a good point, and he's proven that he's capable, so why does he not get paid well?

[Frank Booth]

(04-24-2022, 11:47 AM)Mike M (the other one) Wrote: yep, Fred made a good point, and he's proven that he's capable, so why does he not get paid well?

I’ve heard described as “the death of the nfl middle class” or something like that. The nfl does not highly value guards and centers who are not super young, and are only decent at best. Those kinds of players always get cheap contracts

[fredtoast]

(04-24-2022, 11:51 AM)Frank Booth Wrote: I’ve heard described as “the death of the nfl middle class” or something like that. The  nfl does not highly value  guards and centers who are not super young, and are only decent at best. Those kinds of players always get cheap contracts

We paid Redmond $2.1 million in '20 after he had proven that he stunk.

We gave John Miller 3 yr $16.5 million.

We gave Su'a-filo 3 yr $9 million.

None of those guys had the resume that Spain did when we signed him for $1.1 million last year.  It just doesn't make sense.

[*pally*]

A couple of things in Carman's favor is that he is still young for a 2nd-year player, he was coming off of off-season back surgery in 2021 which may have hindered his development, and he was being transitioned to a guard after playing tackle in college. His coaches mentioned or referred to his inconsistency which should improve as he grows more comfortable. His immaturity showed as well as some of his preparation was subpar. That also should improve in the 2nd year. If he comes into camp out of shape and overweight again, we will have our answer pretty quickly that he is not a realistic potential starter in 2022.

Media reports have mentioned several times that the team was unhappy with how Spain wore down as the season went on and that was a major concern when considering re-signing him or not. He may not have the physical stamina to be a full time starter in the AFC North over a 17 (20) game season

[*ochocincos*]

(04-23-2022, 08:11 PM)NUGDUKWE Wrote: How many games did Carman play at LG? I was just watching the KC game last night were he had to come in for Spain. He was terrible in that game. At least as far as I could tell but it was against Chris Jones but still he was very bad in that game.

In fact after watching that I'm convinced the Bengals need an OL in Rd 1. I still think there's hope for Carman but in no way do I want to plan on him being the starter.

Just over 100 snaps. I believe it was 106 (I'd have to search for an old post from 1+ months ago that had that info).