Ran the playoff simulator a few times

[The Real Deal]

Correct me if I'm wrong but if and when new England loses to Philly, we are in the driver's seat for the first seed in the playoffs.

Translation : if we take care of our business from here on out the road to the Super Bowl runs through cincinnati.

And in case you're not aware, we are pretty tough to beat at home.

WHO DEY

[jfkbengals]

(12-06-2015, 08:44 PM)The Real Deal Wrote: Correct me if I'm wrong but if and when new England loses to Philly, we are in the driver's seat for the first seed in the playoffs.

Translation : if we take care of our business from here on out the road to the Super Bowl runs through cincinnati.

And in case you're not aware, we are pretty tough to beat at home.

WHO DEY

No, eventually the Pats will have the same AFC win% if both teams win out.  They have to lose to one of the AFC teams for us to carry that tiebreaker (Texans, Titans, Jets, or Dolphins).  But if they lose this game, that will put them at 13-3.

[*pally*]

Denver is the key....its the only common opponant that will count

[jfkbengals]

I did just find a scenario where it gave us the tie breaker at 14-2. Every team in the AFCE but NE loses every game versus opponents outside of their division. Same goes for NFCE and AFCS. Meanwhile, the Ravens and Browns win all of their matchups against teams that play outside of the AFCN and, wait for it, at least one of them beats Pittsburgh.

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(12-06-2015, 09:24 PM)pally Wrote: Denver is the key....its the only common opponant that will count

Yep.

Gents....do you remember what happened the last time we were a #1 seed ?

[reuben.ahmed]

I think NE will struggle against Houston, they would have lost if Gronk wasn't playing but he'll likely be back so they'll probably win - but not easy.

[The Real Deal]

I didn't explain well but I meant just for this week. Nebuchadnezzar did a much better on his thread.... Good thread is what I meant lol

[EatonFan]

Houston would also be a common opponent along with the Steelers and Bills. If we run the table and NE runs the table wouldn't it be up to strength of schedule?

[coachmcneil71]

Not to be Debbie Downer cause I'm as stoked as any of us but the schedule isn't all cupcakes and lollipops down the stretch. Pitt is playing well on offense (could be a shoot out this week in Cincy), a beatable but semi-resurgent Gold Diggers, Denver in the altitude, and a division rival in the Ravens that will play hard no matter what their record is.
It's been a pretty nice ride thus far but there's still work to be done.

[*SHRacerX*]

It appears to me that if the Bengals and Pats end with the same 14-2 record, they still get the #1 seed, largely due to the horrible seasons turned in by the Browns and Ravens.

There is a very realistic chance, however, that they(the pats) will lose at least one more game. The Bengals certainly have a tougher road ahead, but beating putzburgh next weekend would be a great start.

The realistic part of my head says Bengals are the #2 seed and the six seed would be the Cheifs, who would go to Denver. The fourth seed will be the Texans (even if they just lost to Buffalo) and would host the steelers as the #5 seed.

Then, the Bengals would get either the Texans or steelers while the pats get the winner of Denver/KC.

A lot of people would hate that outcome, but I think this team could handle either one. If I could pick any one team from the AFC that has a realistic shot to play in the playoffs, it would be the Jets. But it will ultimately come down to beating New England in their house...which I am beyond excited to even think about.

[hitchopottimus]

(12-07-2015, 09:48 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: It appears to me that if the Bengals and Pats end with the same 14-2 record, they still get the #1 seed, largely due to the horrible seasons turned in by the Browns and Ravens.  

There is a very realistic chance, however, that they(the pats) will lose at least one more game.  The Bengals certainly have a tougher road ahead, but beating putzburgh next weekend would be a great start.  

The realistic part of my head says Bengals are the #2 seed and the six seed would be the Cheifs, who would go to Denver.  The fourth seed will be the Texans (even if they just lost to Buffalo) and would host the steelers as the #5 seed.

Then, the Bengals would get either the Texans or steelers while the pats get the winner of Denver/KC.

A lot of people would hate that outcome, but I think this team could handle either one.  If I could pick any one team from the AFC that has a realistic shot to play in the playoffs, it would be the Jets.  But it will ultimately come down to beating New England in their house...which I am beyond excited to even think about.

The NFL reseeds after the Wild Card round, meaning that, assuming your scenario plays out, the Bengals would get the Broncos if they win, or the winner of Steelers/Texans if the Broncos lose. Basically, after the Wild Card round, the #1 seed plays the lowest remaining seed, and the #2 seed plays the other surviving team from the Wild Card round.

[XenoMorph]

(12-06-2015, 09:18 PM)jfkbengals Wrote: No, eventually the Pats will have the same AFC win% if both teams win out.  They have to lose to one of the AFC teams for us to carry that tiebreaker (Texans, Titans, Jets, or Dolphins).  But if they lose this game, that will put them at 13-3.

New England lost to the AFC Broncos.

[CornerBlitz]

According to Cole Harvey if we win out we are the number 1 seed.

[OrlandoBengal]

(12-06-2015, 09:49 PM)reuben.ahmed Wrote: I think NE will struggle against Houston, they would have lost if Gronk wasn't playing but he'll likely be back so they'll probably win - but not easy.

I think New England is going to lose to Houston.  Watt and company are going to have a field day against their depleted offensive line. 

There was a guy at the table next to us yesterday wearing a Patriots hat.  He had Green in fantasy, so was rooting for the Bengals in the early games.  I know it is rumor, and just a guy in a bar, but he said all of the New England websites are saying the chances of Gronk being back this week are extremely slim.  Without Gronk, I think the Houston secondary absolutely owns the Patriots receivers (look how much trouble they gave us).

Here is where I am torn though... this team seems to play better just going week to week.  Any type of extended break and they don't seem as focused.  That said, the bye week, and guaranteed home games, are vitally important.  I think it is up to the coaches to keep the guys focused through the bye.

[XenoMorph]

(12-07-2015, 01:08 PM)OrlandoBengal Wrote: I think New England is going to lose to Houston.  Watt and company are going to have a field day against their depleted offensive line. 

There was a guy at the table next to us yesterday wearing a Patriots hat.  He had Green in fantasy, so was rooting for the Bengals in the early games.  I know it is rumor, and just a guy in a bar, but he said all of the New England websites are saying the chances of Gronk being back this week are extremely slim.  Without Gronk, I think the Houston secondary absolutely owns the Patriots receivers (look how much trouble they gave us).

Here is where I am torn though... this team seems to play better just going week to week.  Any type of extended break and they don't seem as focused.  That said, the bye week, and guaranteed home games, are vitally important.  I think it is up to the coaches to keep the guys focused through the bye.

well every undefeated team has lost 2 in a row when they went down now...

Patriots could probly find a way to win vs houston it might be a 14-10 affair but unless the Texans show that hunger they had when they surged to tie the colts (in standings) for the rest of the way their season is over sooner than later.

NE lost by 1 TD when they gave up 3 TDs without the defense on the field.

So Brady is still finding his way to the end zone... but JJ watt and brady wont be friends after that game

[*SHRacerX*]

(12-07-2015, 10:01 AM)hitchopottimus Wrote: The NFL reseeds after the Wild Card round, meaning that, assuming your scenario plays out, the Bengals would get the Broncos if they win, or the winner of Steelers/Texans if the Broncos lose. Basically, after the Wild Card round, the #1 seed plays the lowest remaining seed, and the #2 seed plays the other surviving team from the Wild Card round.

You're right...sorry I didn't clarify what I meant.  I don't see Denver beating KC in the playoffs.  KC is hot right now, and Denver is relying on their defense against some really weak offenses...(and I am including the pats right now  ).  So the Pats would get KC and the Bengals would get the winner of pitt/houston.  

I still hold out  hope the Bengals get the #1 seed, however.

Can you imagine if that played out where pitt knocked off New England and the Bengals knocked off the Cheifs and the Bengals hosted pitt in the AFC Championship game?  That would be the real Super Bowl

[OrlandoBengal]

(12-07-2015, 01:20 PM)XenoMorph Wrote: well every undefeated team has lost 2 in a row when they went down now...

Patriots could probly find a way to win vs houston it might be a 14-10 affair but unless the Texans show that hunger they had when they surged to tie the colts (in standings) for the rest of the way their season is over sooner than later.

NE lost by 1 TD when they gave up 3 TDs without the defense on the field.

So Brady is still finding his way to the end zone...  but JJ watt and brady wont be friends after that game

Starting with the Bengals game, the Houston defense has finally started to play like people expected it would.  Remember before the season, most people thought they were a playoff team.

[*SHRacerX*]

(12-07-2015, 01:27 PM)OrlandoBengal Wrote: Starting with the Bengals game, the Houston defense has finally started to play like people expected it would.  Remember before the season, most people thought they were a playoff team.

I was thinking the same thing, but then they gave up 30 points to the Bills?  

[OrlandoBengal]

(12-07-2015, 01:36 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: I was thinking the same thing, but then they gave up 30 points to the Bills?  

Hard to believe I am saying this, but the Bills actually have more weapons than the Patriots do right now...

[hitchopottimus]

(12-07-2015, 01:26 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: You're right...sorry I didn't clarify what I meant.  I don't see Denver beating KC in the playoffs.  KC is hot right now, and Denver is relying on their defense against some really weak offenses...(and I am including the pats right now  ).  So the Pats would get KC and the Bengals would get the winner of pitt/houston.  

I still hold out  hope the Bengals get the #1 seed, however.

Can you imagine if that played out where pitt knocked off New England and the Bengals knocked off the Cheifs and the Bengals hosted pitt in the AFC Championship game?  That would be the real Super Bowl

Imagine getting the Steelers in the Jungle for the AFC, followed by another shot at Carson's Cardinals in the Super Bowl.