What Vegas and the National Media is not talking about

[fredtoast]

(08-29-2022, 01:34 PM)Synric Wrote: LoL your right Mahomes knew exactly what Kurt was looking at and decided to make the worst choice instead of the proper one. Makes perfect  sense.

I don't even know what this means.

Are you claiming the video does not show what really happened?

Are you saying Mahomes did not make bad decisions?

What exactly are you trying to say here?

[*Synric*]

(08-29-2022, 02:20 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I don't even know what this means.

Are you claiming the video does not show what really happened?

Are you saying Mahomes did not make bad decisions?

What exactly are you trying to say here?

Your argument is the defense had nothing to do with Patrick Mahomes bad second half. You are saying that Mahomes went from a nearly perfect first half to one of the worst second half by an in NFL history just because he started playing bad. You have repeatedly said the defense had nothing to do with this change because Kurt Warner said there was plays that could be made.


You'res so very wrong. The Defense adjusted there are tons of videos out there showing the rotating coverages and the changes from the first and second half you are ignoring all of this trying to argue the Bengals just got "lucky". 

There really isnt a point arguing because you really dont know what you are talking about. You are just repeating Kurt Warner said Mahomes did this but he should have done this but your neglecting one major question WHY did Mahomes do what he did compared to what Warner was showing after the fact.

[Bengalholic]

(08-29-2022, 01:30 PM)fredtoast Wrote: And you formed your opinion based on what you saw from standing on the field?

I honestly think a former NFL QB has some clue about what a QB is actually seeing standing on the field.

Warner's video defeats your own argument. I don't know if you just skim over stuff and don't take the time to get the whole picture or if you purposely leave things out because it counters your narrative. Either way...terrible look, which leads to terrible takes.

You should have listened more carefully to EVERYTHING Warner was saying and showing in the breakdowns:

On the 4th down right before half, he says 'great stop. great defense.' 

On the first play he shows in the 2nd half - 'take away what they like to do - really, really tough - good adjustment by the Bengals'.

On the second play - the pocket is collapsing in the end zone, can't take his normal depth before throwing it, forced to check down. Again. solid defense that produced a favorable result. Warner -  'a lot of factors there'.

The 3rd play - 'they have him outnumbered on both sides, so there's really nothing for Mahomes to do. Another good adjustment by the Bengals'. Great coverage again by the Bengals that left Mahomes with no real option except throwing it away.

The 4th play - Great man coverage across the board. Warner on the coverage - 'tough'.

The 5th play - Mahomes falls for a look that he saw earlier and completely misreads what the Bengals did out of the look this time. 

6th play - Mahomes doesn't take the easy swing pass to the back and gets sacked because of great coverage again by the Bengals. 

7th play - Bad technique by Mahomes results in not completing a short attempt. Once again, solid coverage downfield.

8th play - Mahomes is hesitant due to the coverage, Warner - 'maybe you could've made a play, maybe not'. Results in sack.

9th play - Solid Tampa 2 coverage. Kelce comes open for a second as a 3rd option, but a defender closing on him and Mahomes doesn't trust making that throw. Results in another sack.

10th play - Mahomes just made a bad throw. 

11th play - Apple jumps the route. Good defensive play. 

12th play - Tremendous coverage. Warner - 'good throw, great defense'. 

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(08-29-2022, 02:37 PM)Synric Wrote: Your argument is the defense had nothing to do with Patrick Mahomes bad second half. You are saying that Mahomes went from a nearly perfect first half to one of the worst second half by an in NFL history just because he started playing bad. You have repeatedly said the defense had nothing to do with this change because Kurt Warner said there was plays that could be made.


You'res so very wrong. The Defense adjusted there are tons of videos out there showing the rotating coverages and the changes from the first and second half you are ignoring all of this trying to argue the Bengals just got "lucky". 

There really isnt a point arguing because you really dont know what you are talking about. You are just repeating Kurt Warner said Mahomes did this but he should have done this but your neglecting one major question WHY did Mahomes do what he did compared to what Warner was showing after the fact.

Yep.

(08-29-2022, 02:59 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: Warner's video defeats your own argument. I don't know if you just skim over stuff and don't take the time to get the whole picture or if you purposely leave things out because it counters your narrative. Either way...terrible look, which leads to terrible takes.

You should have listened more carefully to EVERYTHING Warner was saying and showing in the breakdowns:

On the 4th down right before half, he says 'great stop. great defense.' 

On the first play he shows in the 2nd half - 'take away what they like to do - really, really tough - good adjustment by the Bengals'.

On the second play - the pocket is collapsing in the end zone, can't take his normal depth before throwing it, forced to check down. Again. solid defense that produced a favorable result. Warner -  'a lot of factors there'.

The 3rd play - 'they have him outnumbered on both sides, so there's really nothing for Mahomes to do. Another good adjustment by the Bengals'. Great coverage again by the Bengals that left Mahomes with no real option except throwing it away.

The 4th play - Great man coverage across the board. Warner on the coverage - 'tough'.

The 5th play - Mahomes falls for a look that he saw earlier and completely misreads what the Bengals did out of the look this time. 

6th play - Mahomes doesn't take the easy swing pass to the back and gets sacked because of great coverage again by the Bengals. 

7th play - Bad technique by Mahomes results in not completing a short attempt. Once again, solid coverage downfield.

8th play - Mahomes is hesitant due to the coverage, Warner - 'maybe you could've made a play, maybe not'. Results in sack.

9th play - Solid Tampa 2 coverage. Kelce comes open for a second as a 3rd option, but a defender closing on him and Mahomes doesn't trust making that throw. Results in another sack.

10th play - Mahomes just made a bad throw. 

11th play - Apple jumps the route. Good defensive play. 

12th play - Tremendous coverage. Warner - 'good throw, great defense'. 

Yeah, even Kurt doesn't agree with what Fred is saying according to all of this.

He believes we played great Defense in the 2nd half which we did. Everyone agrees except Fred. He is a lonely guy lol

[fredtoast]

(08-29-2022, 02:59 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: You should have listened more carefully to EVERYTHING Warner was saying and showing in the breakdowns:

You do not list EVERYTHING he said.  But even your selective editing left in this stuff

(08-29-2022, 02:59 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: .

The 5th play - Mahomes falls for a look that he saw earlier and completely misreads what the Bengals did out of the look this time. 

6th play - Mahomes doesn't take the easy swing pass to the back 

7th play - Bad technique by Mahomes results in not completing a short attempt.

10th play - Mahomes just made a bad throw. 

(08-29-2022, 03:28 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Yeah, even Kurt doesn't agree with what Fred is saying according to all of this.

Watch the video yourself.  Bengals D made some plays.  Mahomes played terrible the second half.  Often had open receivers and running lanes.  Just made a lot of bad decisions.

[*PhilHos*]

(08-29-2022, 02:18 PM)fredtoast Wrote: It is not bullshit.  The numbers prove I am correct.  You can't compare every long completion in every game situation to a long completion against a defense specifically designed to stop a 3rd and 25.

You can, when you claim that the reason for said completion was due to luck and not the skills of the players involved. Say it was Huber that threw the pass, since it's not something he regularly does and doesn't regularly complete long passes, then, yes, one could say there was a lot of luck involved.

Since it's a QB who, up til this point, has thrown a LOT of passes that went for 27 yards or more, you can't claim it was luck simply because of the down and distance. That's like saying every game winning TD or FG is due to luck and not skill. 

(08-29-2022, 02:18 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Over the last 4 years NFL QBs have completed 3841 passes for 25+ yards.  Only one has been on 3rd-and-25+.  13 different QBs have 100 or more completions for 25+ yards.  Not a single one of them has done it on 3rd-and 25+.

Rarity does not equal luck. 
Only 1 QB in NFL history has thrown 55 TD passes in the regular season. I guess Peyton Manning was just lucky.
Only 1 QB in NFL history has hit a FG from beyond 65 yards. I guess Justin Tucker was just lucky.

(08-29-2022, 02:18 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Actually the reason I can't point to luck is the exact same reason that you can't point to luck in a video of a ten year old making a full court shot.  And that reason is that just showing a video of something happening doesn't prove ANYTHING about how lucky it was.  That entire argument was a logical failure.

Except that everyone knows making a full court shot is a rarity for ANYONE let alone a ten year old. If I posted a video of Stephen Curry making a game winning 3 pointer, no one would claim he's lucky, because he's know for making 3 pointers. Burrow and Chase were know for making big plays by the time this 3rd and 27 rolled around. 

[Bengalholic]

(08-29-2022, 03:47 PM)fredtoast Wrote: You do not list EVERYTHING he said.  But even your selective editing left in this stuff


Watch the video yourself.  Bengals D made some plays.  Mahomes played terrible the second half.  Often had open receivers and running lanes.  Just made a lot of bad decisions.

It's not selective editing. I 'added' what YOU purposely left out. 

There's a reason why Mahomes was terrible in the 2nd half.  He was confused, flustered and got a case of happy feet. That didn't happen for no reason. Why do you think Warner kept mentioning the Bengals coverage in the 2nd half?

Mahomes had no idea what he seeing most of the time...which is why he looked like a deer in the headlights rookie in the 2nd half. 

[*PhilHos*]

(08-29-2022, 02:37 PM)Synric Wrote: Your argument is the defense had nothing to do with Patrick Mahomes bad second half. You are saying that Mahomes went from a nearly perfect first half to one of the worst second half by an in NFL history just because he started playing bad. You have repeatedly said the defense had nothing to do with this change because Kurt Warner said there was plays that could be made.


You'res so very wrong. The Defense adjusted there are tons of videos out there showing the rotating coverages and the changes from the first and second half you are ignoring all of this trying to argue the Bengals just got "lucky". 

There really isnt a point arguing because you really dont know what you are talking about. You are just repeating Kurt Warner said Mahomes did this but he should have done this but your neglecting one major question WHY did Mahomes do what he did compared to what Warner was showing after the fact.

I like how he argues that the 3rd and 27 play is "lucky" because of it's rarity, but then turns around and says our 2nd half defense against the Chiefs is lucky even though it happened TWICE IN THE SAME SEASON. How, if we really played good D, we'd do it all the time, but then turns around and, even though Burrow and Chase hooked up on multiple long passes all season long, it's "lucky" when they do it 1 time on 3rd and 27. 

fred's about as consistent as John Kerry was on the war in Iraq. lol

[fredtoast]

(08-29-2022, 03:52 PM)PhilHos Wrote: Since it's a QB who, up til this point, has thrown a LOT of passes that went for 27 yards or more, you can't claim it was luck simply because of the down and distance. 

Yes I can when I post facts to back it up.

It has not happened in 4 years.

It had not happened in the last 136 attempts.

It almost never happens.  Even among the most skilled and best coached players in the entire league.

And that is exactly how we know luck was involved.

(08-29-2022, 03:52 PM)PhilHos Wrote: That's like saying every game winning TD or FG is due to luck and not skill. 

No it is not.  That is a complete false equivalency.  There have been hundreds of game winning FGs and TDs over the last 4 years, but only ONE conversion of a 3rd-and-25+.

(08-29-2022, 03:52 PM)PhilHos Wrote: Rarity does not equal luck. 
Only 1 QB in NFL history has thrown 55 TD passes in the regular season. I guess Peyton Manning was just lucky. 
Only 1 QB in NFL history has hit a FG from beyond 65 yards. I guess Justin Tucker was just lucky. 

Yes, both of those records involved a lot of luck.  That is why the exact same player with the exact same skill level was never able to repeat them.
Harbaugh knows Tucker was lucky to hit that 66 yarder.  Justin is only 1 of 3 from 60+ for his career.  And that is exactly why Harbaugh would not even have attempted that kick if it had not been with just 3 seconds left in the game.

[Bengalholic]

(08-29-2022, 03:47 PM)fredtoast Wrote: You do not list EVERYTHING he said.  But even your selective editing left in this stuff

'The 5th play - Mahomes falls for a look that he saw earlier and completely misreads what the Bengals did out of the look this time.'

Why did you focus on the part you bolded and not what was said before and after that part. It's almost as if you purposely ignore anything that doesn't fit into your narrative. 

[fredtoast]

(08-29-2022, 04:01 PM)PhilHos Wrote: I like how he argues that the 3rd and 27 play is "lucky" because of it's rarity, but then turns around and says our 2nd half defense against the Chiefs is lucky even though it happened TWICE IN THE SAME SEASON. How, if we really played good D, we'd do it all the time,

So now 2 out of 41 halves is "all the time"?

For the entire season our defense was in the bottom half of the league in both points and yards allowed.  We were 26th in passing yards and 18th in passer rating.

[*bengalfan74*]

(08-29-2022, 03:58 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: It's not selective editing. I 'added' what YOU purposely left out. 

There's a reason why Mahomes was terrible in the 2nd half.  He was confused, flustered and got a case of happy feet. That didn't happen for no reason. Why do you think Warner kept mentioning the Bengals coverage in the 2nd half?

Mahomes had no idea what he seeing most of the time...which is why he looked like a deer in the headlights rookie in the 2nd half. 

No, no, no you're wrong. Patrick Mahomes in his 11th playoff game with a record of 8-2. Two Superbowls 1 win, 1 loss. His 4th AFCCG in a row. Suddenly developed a case of the yips just out of the blue. Somehow the pressure of the big lights finally got to him.

[Bengalholic]

(08-29-2022, 04:15 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Yes I can when I post facts to back it up.

It has not happened in 4 years.

It had not happened in the last 136 attempts.

It almost never happens.  Even among the most skilled and best coached players in the entire league.

And that is exactly how we know luck was involved.




No it is not.  That is a complete false equivalency.  There have been hundreds of game winning FGs and TDs over the last 4 years, but only ONE conversion of a 3rd-and-25+.

Yes, both of those records involved a lot of luck.  That is why the exact same player with the exact same skill level was never able to repeat them.
Harbaugh knows Tucker was lucky to hit that 66 yarder.  Justin is only 1 of 3 from 60+ for his career.  And that is exactly why Harbaugh would not even have attempted that kick if it had not been with just 3 seconds left in the game.

The 3 and 27 conversion was a result of perfect execution - great read, great call, great pass and great catch. It doesn't matter if it had NEVER happened before. The fact is that it happened in that instance and was a direct result of perfect execution. No luck, no fluke...PERFECT execution.  

[fredtoast]

(08-29-2022, 04:19 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: No, no, no you're wrong. Patrick Mahomes in his 11th playoff game with a record of 8-2. Two Superbowls 1 win, 1 loss. His 4th AFCCG in a row. Suddenly developed a case of the yips just out of the blue. Somehow the pressure of the big lights finally got to him.

That is correct.  Even Patrick himself admits it.  He tried to play too conservative with such a big lead.

Patrick Mahomes on loss to Bengals: 'We were playing not to lose' - Tuesday, August 9, 2022 - CapperTek


"If you look, they didn't do much different from the first half to the second half. We just didn't execute at a high enough level. They were playing the same coverages and we weren't executing. Then momentum gets in the other team's favor and when you're playing a good football team, bad stuff happens."

[Bengalholic]

(08-29-2022, 04:19 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: No, no, no you're wrong. Patrick Mahomes in his 11th playoff game with a record of 8-2. Two Superbowls 1 win, 1 loss. His 4th AFCCG in a row. Suddenly developed a case of the yips just out of the blue. Somehow the pressure of the big lights finally got to him.

Yep, according to fred's logic...he forgot how to play football in the 2nd half. 

Seriously, this has been some of the worst and most asinine arguments I've ever seen in JN. 

[fredtoast]

(08-29-2022, 04:20 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: The 3 and 27 conversion was a result of perfect execution - great read, great call, great pass and great catch. It doesn't matter if it had NEVER happened before. The fact is that it happened in that instance and was a direct result of perfect execution. No luck, no fluke...PERFECT execution.  

If "perfect execution" just happens once every 4 years despite the greatest players and coaches striving to attain it over a hundred times then the Bengals were lucky to get "perfect execution".

You can't try to win an argument just making up new definitions for the meaning of a word.  If converting a 3rd-and-25 was all based on skill and coaching then it would happen a lot more often when the greatest coaches and most skilled players attempt it.

[Bengalholic]

(08-29-2022, 04:24 PM)fredtoast Wrote: That is correct.  Even Patrick himself admits it.  He tried to play too conservative with such a big lead.

Patrick Mahomes on loss to Bengals: 'We were playing not to lose' - Tuesday, August 9, 2022 - CapperTek


"If you look, they didn't do much different from the first half to the second half. We just didn't execute at a high enough level. They were playing the same coverages and we weren't executing. Then momentum gets in the other team's favor and when you're playing a good football team, bad stuff happens."

He also said he would run the same play on 4th and goal at the end of the 1st half. 

What do you expect him to say - 'I was completely confused and didn't know what the hell I was looking at'. 

[fredtoast]

(08-29-2022, 04:24 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: Yep, according to fred's logic...he forgot how to play football in the 2nd half. 

Not my logic.  Just a direct quote from Mahomes.

(08-29-2022, 04:24 PM)fredtoast Wrote: That is correct.  Even Patrick himself admits it.  He tried to play too conservative with such a big lead.

Patrick Mahomes on loss to Bengals: 'We were playing not to lose' - Tuesday, August 9, 2022 - CapperTek


"If you look, they didn't do much different from the first half to the second half. We just didn't execute at a high enough level. They were playing the same coverages and we weren't executing. Then momentum gets in the other team's favor and when you're playing a good football team, bad stuff happens."

(08-29-2022, 04:24 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: Seriously, this has been some of the worst and most asinine arguments I've ever seen in JN. 

So the argument that a team can be harmed by "playing not to lose" is "asinine"?

Good thing no one here ever made that argument before.  They might be offended by your take on this.

[Bengalholic]

(08-29-2022, 04:29 PM)fredtoast Wrote: If "perfect execution" just happens once every 4 years despite the greatest players and coaches striving to attain it over a hundred times then the Bengals were lucky to get "perfect execution".

You can't try to win an argument just making up new definitions for the meaning of a word.  If converting a 3rd-and-25 was all based on skill and coaching then it would happen a lot more often when the greatest coaches and most skilled players attempt it.

The lengths you are going to avoid saying 'that was a great conversion by the Bengals' is disturbing.

[Bengalholic]

(08-29-2022, 04:33 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Not my logic.  Just a direct quote from Mahomes.






So the argument that a team can be harmed by "playing not to lose" is "asinine"?

Good thing no one here ever made that argument before.  They might be offended by your take on this.

If Mahomes was 'playing not to lose' why was he continually looking to throw downfield?

Interesting that he didn't talk about 'playing not lose' right after the game. Quite the opposite.