What Vegas and the National Media is not talking about

[*bfine32*]

(08-30-2022, 11:18 AM)fredtoast Wrote: If Bengals face 3rd-and-25 ten times this year how many do you predict they convert?

BTW I think you will get your wish.  This question I asked will keep a lot of people from posting in this thread anymore.

You're right

[*PhilHos*]

(08-30-2022, 11:23 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: I don't think the 3rd and 27 play was lucky, just improbable. Maybe the Bengals were lucky that KC played the defense they did, but that is as far as I would go. The Chiefs played a risky defense and Burrow/Chase played up to their strengths to make a play. The beauty of sports is making improbable plays.

Since 1999, there have been 1,118 third downs with >= 25 yards to go. Only 25 of them have been converted, or 2.2%. A very rare thing indeed.

Rare, sure, but not the impossibility fred claimed. I kinda figured that's why he only went back 4 years.

[fredtoast]

(08-30-2022, 11:27 AM)PhilHos Wrote: Rare, sure, but not the impossibility fred claimed. I kinda figured that's why he only went back 4 years.

So what is the Bengals conversion percentage going to be this year if they face 3rd-and-25 ten times?

[*PhilHos*]

(08-30-2022, 11:37 AM)fredtoast Wrote: So what is the Bengals conversion percentage going to be this year if they face 3rd-and-25 ten times?

So any team that's ever converted a 3rd-and-25+ or ever will, they will have done so solely because of luck and not skill or scheme? No matter how great a QB is, it's just impossible for them to have the skills and tools necessary to convert a 3rd-and-25+? Dan Marino, Tom Brady, Joe Montana, Peyton Manning, Ken Anderson. NONE of these guys are skillful enough to convert a 3rd-and-25+?

[*Synric*]

(08-30-2022, 11:37 AM)fredtoast Wrote: So what is the Bengals conversion percentage going to be this year if they face 3rd-and-25 ten times?

Again it's not about every 3rd and 25+ it's only that one play. Your argument is a false equivalency. You are suggesting every 3rd and 25+ are exactly the same.


Its 3rd and 27. Game is tied at 31 with 3 minutes left on the clock. The Bengals are on the 41. The Chiefs aren't just trying to stop a 1st down they are zero blitz because they want to keep the Bengals from getting the 6ish yards from field goal range. Joe Burrow sees the zero blitz the 1 on 1 man coverage vs Chase and throws a great ball.

266 yards on the DEY for Ja'Marr. That's a team record for receiving yards in a game.

Watch on CBS pic.twitter.com/s7clFfPQEY

— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) January 2, 2022

Football is situational. Because the Chiefs were trying to force the Bengals out of field goal range it kept them from playing a normal 3rd and long defense. Because of that opportunity the Bengals were able to capitalize because they were prepared for that defense.

Luck is what happens with preperation meets opportunity.

[*rfaulk34*]

(08-30-2022, 02:20 AM)fredtoast Wrote: So if I do you will apologize for accusing me of "making stuff up"?

I am not going to scan 14 pages for nothing.

Sure. I don't have a problem apologizing or saying i'm wrong. 

You may end up forcing me to point out numerous times you've added or subtracted, made up your own argument to dispel, went to the extreme opposite end, or added your own implication to what someone said. 

But yes, if you can find an instance in this thread where someone said it was just talent, i'll be glad to apologize. 

[*rfaulk34*]

(08-30-2022, 02:22 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Simple question for all of you.  I need to get your answers for the record.

If the Bengals face 3rd-and-25 ten times this year how many do they convert?

Simple answer; all the ones where they out-execute the opposition. Like they did against the Chiefs. 

[*rfaulk34*]

(08-30-2022, 11:05 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Well I will give Holic credit for not running and hiding like the rest of the crowd here who have been accusing me of trolling.

So what "unknown" factors do you need to know before you can decide how often the Bengals will converts 3rd-and-25?

C'mon Phil, Faulk, Synric I need to get your answers on the record.

That's a bad question. 

[*rfaulk34*]

(08-30-2022, 11:23 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: I don't think the 3rd and 27 play was lucky, just improbable. Maybe the Bengals were lucky that KC played the defense they did, but that is as far as I would go. The Chiefs played a risky defense and Burrow/Chase played up to their strengths to make a play. The beauty of sports is making improbable plays.

Since 1999, there have been 1,118 third downs with >= 25 yards to go. Only 25 of them have been converted, or 2.2%. A very rare thing indeed.

I disagree in this specific instance. Randomly, sure. Improbable. 

In that instance, i'd lean more to probable, considering the players and what had happened up to that point.

[fredtoast]

(08-30-2022, 12:34 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: That's a bad question. 

Then how do I have to ask it?

If he needs to define variables in order to answer the hypothetical question I will provide them.

[fredtoast]

(08-30-2022, 12:32 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Simple answer; all the ones where they out-execute the opposition. Like they did against the Chiefs. 

And what is your guess as to the percentage?

Since Chase and Burrow have the skill I am assuming your guess is 100%, correct?

Or at least 50%.  Unless you think Burrow and Chase are in the bottom half of the league in talent, right?

[*rfaulk34*]

(08-30-2022, 12:01 PM)Synric Wrote: Again it's not about every 3rd and 25+ it's only that one play. Your argument is a false equivalency. You are suggesting every 3rd and 25+ are exactly the same.


Its 3rd and 27. Game is tied at 31 with 3 minutes left on the clock. The Bengals are on the 41. The Chiefs aren't just trying to stop a 1st down they are zero blitz because they want to keep the Bengals from getting the 6ish yards from field goal range. Joe Burrow sees the zero blitz the 1 on 1 man coverage vs Chase and throws a great ball.

266 yards on the DEY for Ja'Marr. That's a team record for receiving yards in a game.

Watch on CBS pic.twitter.com/s7clFfPQEY

— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) January 2, 2022

Football is situational. Because the Chiefs were trying to force the Bengals out of field goal range it kept them from playing a normal 3rd and long defense. Because of that opportunity the Bengals were able to capitalize because they were prepared for that defense.

Luck is what happens with preperation meets opportunity.

I think this post right here is about as accurate and solid as it gets. 

[*rfaulk34*]

(08-30-2022, 12:39 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Then how do I have to ask it?

If he needs to define variables in order to answer the hypothetical question I will provide them.

It's a general question that shouldn't be asked. 

(08-30-2022, 12:42 PM)fredtoast Wrote: And what is your guess as to the percentage?

Since Chase and Burrow have the skill I am assuming your guess is 100%, correct?

Or at least 50%.  Unless you think Burrow and Chase are in the bottom half of the league in talent, right?

If i knew the exact situation i could give a guess on how probable i think it is. 

[fredtoast]

(08-30-2022, 11:53 AM)PhilHos Wrote:  Dan Marino, Tom Brady, Joe Montana, Peyton Manning, Ken Anderson. NONE of these guys are skillful enough to convert a 3rd-and-25+?

I can only go back to 1994 but I can tell you that Tom Brady did it once in 17 attempts, but Trent Dilfer did it twice in just 6 attempts.

Peyton Manning,  Aaron Rodgers, Kurt Warner, and Drew Brees did it ZERO times in FIFTY-FIVE combined attempts, but Mark Sanchez, Donald Hollis, Kyle Orton, Matt Moore, Jay Fiedler, and Gale Gilbert did it 6 times in just 21 attempts


So obviously it is about skill, and luck has nothing to do with it.

[*PhilHos*]

(08-30-2022, 12:57 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I can only go back to 1994 but I can tell you that Peyton Manning and Tom Brady combined to convert ONE time in 28 attempts, but Trent Dilfer did it twice in just 6 attempts.


So obviously it is about skill, and luck has nothing to do with it.

There may be times that luck plays a part in ANY play. I've never said otherwise. What I HAVE said is that by virtue of down and distance does not automatically make a conversion the result of luck over the skill of the players and the schemes employed by the team.

I've also linked to the specific play in question asking you to point out where the luck has come in and yet, again, you refuse to do so. Instead, making the absurd claim that ALL 3rd-and-25+ conversions are the result of luck not skills.

[fredtoast]

(08-30-2022, 01:01 PM)PhilHos Wrote: I've also linked to the specific play in question asking you to point out where the luck has come in and yet, again, you refuse to do so.

Phil: Point to the luck in the video.
Me: Point to the luck in the video of a kid making a full court basketball shot.
Phil: A kid making a full court basketball shot is rare so I don't have to.
Me:  Converting a 3rd-and-25 is extremely rare.
Phil: "Rare" does not mean "lucky".
Me: Then point out the luck in the video.
Phil: A kid making a full court basketball shot is rare so I don't have to.
Me:  Converting a 3rd-and-25 is extremely rare.
Phil: "Rare" does not mean "lucky".
Me: Then point out the luck in the video.
Phil: A kid making a full court basketball shot is rare so I don't have to.
Me:  Converting a 3rd-and-25 is extremely rare.
Phil: "Rare" does not mean "lucky".
Me: Then point out the luck in the video.
Phil: A kid making a full court basketball shot is rare so I don't have to.
Me:  Converting a 3rd-and-25 is extremely rare.
Phil: "Rare" does not mean "lucky".
Me: Then point out the luck in the video.

[fredtoast]

(08-30-2022, 01:01 PM)PhilHos Wrote: What I HAVE said is that by virtue of down and distance does not automatically make a conversion the result of luck over the skill of the players and the schemes employed by the team.

I know what you have said.

And I have shown that based on your logic Marck Sanchez, Kyle Orton, Donald Hollis, Jay Fiedler, Gale Gilbert, and Trent Dilfer are more "skilled" than Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Kurt Warner.

[fredtoast]

Now who is trolling?

Not a single person who was calling me a troll is willing to stand behind their position and answer a simple question.

If the Bengals face 3rd-and-25 ten times this year how many times will they convert?

If you need to qualify your answer with different variables, feel free. All I want is an honest answer from anyone who called me a troll.

[*PhilHos*]

(08-30-2022, 01:18 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Phil: Point to the luck in the video.
Me: Point to the luck in the video of a kid making a full court basketball shot.
Phil: A kid making a full court basketball shot is rare so I don't have to.
Me:  Converting a 3rd-and-25 is extremely rare.
Phil: "Rare" does not mean "lucky".
Me: Then point out the luck in the video.
Phil: A kid making a full court basketball shot is rare so I don't have to.
Me:  Converting a 3rd-and-25 is extremely rare.
Phil: "Rare" does not mean "lucky".
Me: Then point out the luck in the video.
Phil: A kid making a full court basketball shot is rare so I don't have to.
Me:  Converting a 3rd-and-25 is extremely rare.
Phil: "Rare" does not mean "lucky".
Me: Then point out the luck in the video.
Phil: A kid making a full court basketball shot is rare so I don't have to.
Me:  Converting a 3rd-and-25 is extremely rare.
Phil: "Rare" does not mean "lucky".
Me: Then point out the luck in the video.

First off, you never posted a video.

More importantly, this is just another falsehood created by you. I am the one that has constantly been asking you to point out the luck in an actual video clip that I posted. 

For someone so adamant that the 3rd-and-27 play was the result of luck, you sure go through an awful lot of effort to refuse to point out the luck in the video. 

[*PhilHos*]

(08-30-2022, 01:22 PM)fredtoast Wrote: And I have shown that based on your logic Marck Sanchez, Kyle Orton, Donald Hollis, Jay Fiedler, Gale Gilbert, and Trent Dilfer are more "skilled" than Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Kurt Warner.

My logic is that not every single 3rd-and-25+ play is the result of luck. But, that luck may have been involved. Just as luck may be involved in any play regardless of yards gained/lost, etc.