09-22-2022, 11:12 AM
I'm thinking these plays are purposely picked where they rarely do something different...
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09-22-2022, 11:12 AM
I'm thinking these plays are purposely picked where they rarely do something different...
09-22-2022, 11:15 AM
(09-22-2022, 11:01 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: Not far off. Do you have anything on what the league average is? "The measure of a man's intelligence can be seen in the length of his argument."
09-22-2022, 11:20 AM
09-22-2022, 11:36 AM
False start on all of them, 5 yard penalty..
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1
09-22-2022, 11:38 AM
(09-22-2022, 11:20 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: Shotgun - 72% pass Based on that, what would be considered to be "predictable"? Or maybe better asked, are the Bengals the furthest from the mean? I also wonder how they stack up via percentage of shotgun/non-shotgun and EPA, compared to the league. "The measure of a man's intelligence can be seen in the length of his argument."
09-22-2022, 11:40 AM
(09-22-2022, 11:12 AM)Tony Wrote: I'm thinking these plays are purposely picked where they rarely do something different... Nope. I will say where each came from after i give the actual play out. Probably later on tonight. "The measure of a man's intelligence can be seen in the length of his argument."
09-22-2022, 11:52 AM
I’ve never been one to say I can guess plays before they happen, but I want to play anyway! There was one first down run last week that was so blatant after a decent first down pickup I knew it was going nowhere before the snap.
I’ll guess: Pass Run Pass Run Run
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09-22-2022, 12:00 PM
I'm in..
Play #1- Run (Dive Left) Play #2 - Run (Toss Right) Play #3 - Pass ( Hurst in the flat) Play #4 - Run (Up the Gut) Play #5 - Pass (Hurst in the left flat, Tee on the slant, or if single covered- Chase deep)
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09-22-2022, 12:20 PM
(09-22-2022, 12:53 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote:I will give this go. Play 1. Throw to Hurst on a seam route Play 2. Mixon run right behind Cappa Play 3. Higgins on a shallow cross or Dig route Play 4. Boyd on a post route Play 5.Mixon behind Cappa again
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09-22-2022, 01:01 PM
(09-22-2022, 11:52 AM)leonardfan40 Wrote: There was one first down run last week that was so blatant after a decent first down pickup I knew it was going nowhere before the snap. The thing is that people say a play is "predictable" yet when asked how they predict it they can can't explain how they do it. For example, what made this play you mentioned so predictable? Down and distance? Formation? Personnel?
09-22-2022, 01:05 PM
(09-22-2022, 11:40 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Nope. I will say where each came from after i give the actual play out. Probably later on tonight. I thought you were going to use the predictions for next Sunday's game. If you picked specific plays they will just accuse you of picking outliers. I 100% agree with you that fans can not predict the plays as often as they claim. Plus it is way too simple to just say "run" or "pass". And finally, it does not matter as much a some fans think. They squeal about how much we run from under center and throw from the shotgun, but that is the same thing pretty much every other team in the league does.
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09-22-2022, 01:29 PM
(09-22-2022, 01:05 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I thought you were going to use the predictions for next Sunday's game. My choices will become obvious once i reveal them. "The measure of a man's intelligence can be seen in the length of his argument."
09-22-2022, 03:44 PM
(09-22-2022, 10:47 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: I expect Synric and AU165 to be the only one’s to come in and answer all of these lol. I think they're both smart enough to already know that there are options with every formation and personnel grouping, depending on what the defense is showing, that without an exhaustive film study, it's folly to try and predict what the play will be. On the surface, you have a 50/50 shot if you just say pass or run and the Bengals do have a tendency to be predictable--though i'd like to see some stats from Goose, from our conversation earlier--based on under center and shotgun, i think the every day fan just has a confirmation bias when they see 2 straight runs from under center fail. There are multiple things wrong with this team right now but i just got bored seeing people say "i knew what they were going to run when they came to the line!", so i threw this together. Thought it might be a fun little game and i might continue it. "The measure of a man's intelligence can be seen in the length of his argument."
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09-22-2022, 03:47 PM
(09-22-2022, 11:12 AM)Tony Wrote: I'm thinking these plays are purposely picked where they rarely do something different... So if they're totally random...they're predictable. If they were selected, then they won't be.
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09-22-2022, 03:54 PM
Should AT LEAST list the down and distance for each of those plays.
09-22-2022, 04:02 PM
(09-22-2022, 03:54 PM)Tomkat Wrote: Should AT LEAST list the down and distance for each of those plays. They're all 1st and 10. That's in the OP. "The measure of a man's intelligence can be seen in the length of his argument."
09-22-2022, 04:16 PM
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09-22-2022, 04:26 PM
(09-22-2022, 12:53 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: What's the distance to the end zone for these plays? What's the time left in the half/game? What's the score at the time of running each? Those all matter when trying to predict what the play call will be, despite what the formation says.
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09-22-2022, 04:37 PM
(09-22-2022, 04:26 PM)ochocincos Wrote: What's the distance to the end zone for these plays? Not according to those who "know what play will be run". The inference is, they're so predictable that when they come to the line, it's known what play will be run by the formation. The things you listed could be important in certain parts of the game. In a close game, not as much. In a blowout for, you'd expect more running and in a blowout against, you'd expect more passing. I will say that the game was not "on the line" when any of these plays were run and there was not a large + or - on the scoreboard. I didn't pick any crazy outliers or instances where they were obviously in an abnormal circumstance. "The measure of a man's intelligence can be seen in the length of his argument."
09-22-2022, 04:53 PM
I think them all being "1st and 10" favors you, a bit, as those plays have more possibilities (also, field position plays a factor)
That said, I'm not one of those people who says I can predict plays based on formation, so I'm not even going to try. I'd love to see these same formations on 2nd and 10, 3rd and 10 - backed up in own territory vs. being deep in opponent's territory, etc. Also, wouldn't sceenshots of the formations be better? (With the score/clock title-bar cropped out of course, so that people couldn't "cheat" by re-watching the game and finding the exact play. |
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