Hello...do you want to play a game?

[Bengalstripes9]

This is a fun exercise but it doesn't prove anything if fans can't predict the plays. If fans can predict the plays then the offense is beyond predicable.

I would venture to guess that any pro player or coach would be 100 times better at predicting plays than the fans are. You should be polling Steelers players and coaches, not everyday fans.

[TheFan]

(09-22-2022, 04:37 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Not according to those who "know what play will be run". The inference is, they're so predictable that when they come to the line, it's known what play will be run by the formation. 

The things you listed could be important in certain parts of the game. In a close game, not as much. In a blowout for, you'd expect more running and in a blowout against, you'd expect more passing. 

I will say that the game was not "on the line" when any of these plays were run and there was not a large + or - on the scoreboard. I didn't pick any crazy outliers or instances where they were obviously in an abnormal circumstance. 

If 1, 2 and 5 weren't runs and 3,4 weren't passes then you had to really try to find plays that went against their overwhelming trend. 

[PCB Bengal Fan]

Doesn't matter if we know the plays, it's the other team that knows the plays. I've called the plays before they happen quite a bit & I'm not an expert. So if the opposing team has experts....see where I'm going?

[*rfaulk34*]

(09-22-2022, 04:53 PM)Tomkat Wrote: I think them all being "1st and 10" favors you, a bit, as those plays have more possibilities (also, field position plays a factor)
That said, I'm not one of those people who says I can predict plays based on formation, so I'm not even going to try.

I'd love to see these same formations on 2nd and 10, 3rd and 10 - backed up in own territory vs. being deep in opponent's territory, etc.

Also, wouldn't sceenshots of the formations be better? (With the score/clock title-bar cropped out of course, so that people couldn't "cheat" by re-watching the game and finding the exact play.

Screenshots take up too much room and give away the game. 

What you said about not being "that guy" is all good. That's who this is for. The guy that says "i knew what they were gonna run when they lined up". It's well known that they put too much on tape that would allow an opponent an edge with their tendencies.

This is just a...game, exercise, something to fart around with and maybe learn something or help to change a preconceived notion that isn't really true in the first place. It's not strictly an 'i'm right, you're wrong' type of thing. 

[*rfaulk34*]

(09-22-2022, 05:00 PM)Bengalstripes9 Wrote: This is a fun exercise but it doesn't prove anything if fans can't predict the plays. If fans can predict the plays then the offense is beyond predicable.

I would venture to guess that any pro player or coach would be 100 times better at predicting plays than the fans are. You should be polling Steelers players and coaches, not everyday fans.

It doesn't make sense to ask someone that already knows and it's actually geared towards fans who think they can call the play before it's run.

[*rfaulk34*]

(09-22-2022, 05:06 PM)TheFan Wrote: If 1, 2 and 5 weren't runs and 3,4 weren't passes then you had to really try to find plays that went against their overwhelming trend. 

Nope. 

[Bengalstripes9]

(09-22-2022, 05:09 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: It doesn't make sense to ask someone that already knows and it's actually geared towards fans who think they can call the play before it's run.

Like I said, it's a fun exercise. That's all.

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

Pffft!

This is obviously an unprovoked, passive aggressive attack on shit talking know-it-alls and trying to expose their false bravado. How else can they pound the table when things don't go the way they want? This is an attack on America.

Reported.

[TheFan]

(09-22-2022, 05:10 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Nope. 

I mean 80% of the time 1,2 and 5 are runs and 80% of the time 3 and 4 are passes. I'm not saying thats a full on Bengal problem but the stats are what they are. 

Obviously since they're well above the mean for both I would say they're near the top for most predictable but idk if there are other teams with even higher %. I would guess there are some for both but they just execute a lot better than we have been. 

[TheFan]

(09-22-2022, 11:01 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: Not far off.

Shotgun - 80%
Non-shotgun - 77% run

Where did you get those stats? (not saying theyre wrong) The site I'm looking at (for 2021) shows the Bengals being at 70% run rate for non shut gun and 70% pass rate for shot gun. 

[*rfaulk34*]

(09-22-2022, 05:07 PM)PCB Bengal Fan Wrote: Doesn't matter if we know the plays, it's the other team that knows the plays. I've called the plays before they happen quite a bit & I'm not an expert. So if the opposing team has experts....see where I'm going?

Where are your guesses?

[KillerGoose]

(09-22-2022, 05:17 PM)TheFan Wrote: Where did you get those stats? (not saying theyre wrong) The site I'm looking at (for 2021) shows the Bengals being at 70% run rate for non shut gun and 70% pass rate for shot gun. 

I'm pulling them from a play-by-play repository called nflfastR. You use the programming language R to pull the data. The numbers look roughly correct, though there are likely just a small amount of penalties throwing me off slightly. I am also looking at 2021 and 2022 so far. Here is what I have...

Pass plays - 701 (by hand count I have 708)
Run plays - 477 (by hand count I have 495)

Pretty close in both regards, or at least not different enough to throw me off by ~10%. As far as shotgun/not, I have...

Non-shotgun - 331 runs, 101 passes (76.6%)
Shotgun - 600 passes, 146 runs (80.4%)

[Johnny Cupcakes]

1 - Pass right to Higgins
2 - Pass to Chase down the sideline
3 - Mixon rush for a short gain
4 - Mixon rush for a loss
5 - Pass to Mixon for 1st down

[TheFan]

(09-22-2022, 05:34 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: I'm pulling them from a play-by-play repository called nflfastR. You use the programming language R to pull the data. The numbers look roughly correct, though there are likely just a small amount of penalties throwing me off slightly. I am also looking at 2021 and 2022 so far. Here is what I have...

Pass plays - 701 (by hand count I have 708)
Run plays - 477 (by hand count I have 495)

Pretty close in both regards, or at least not different enough to throw me off by ~10%. As far as shotgun/not, I have...

Non-shotgun - 331 runs, 101 passes (76.6%)
Shotgun - 600 passes, 146 runs (80.4%)

Ahh okay nice! I would imagine yours is probably more accurate. I was looking at https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/snap-rates--shotgun-v-under-center--off-.html  but they don't really have anything for 2021 (I was looking at 2020 apparently lol)

The link works best from a computer and isn't great on phone. 

[KillerGoose]

(09-22-2022, 06:15 PM)TheFan Wrote: Ahh okay nice! I would imagine yours is probably more accurate. I was looking at a site: https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/snap-rates--shotgun-v-under-center--off-.html  but some of the numbers seem a little wonky. 

The link works best from a computer and isn't great on phone. 

Yeah, I've checked them out before. I had some issues fiddling with their filters up top there. I usually just find it easier to create my own dataset lol. Here is the link to the site for nflfastR. Worth checking out and easy to learn.

https://www.nflfastr.com/

[Gdale_Bengal]

Assume these are all runs since it’s first and 10

[NotBigzo]

(09-22-2022, 12:53 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote:

I keep reading on here how so many think they can call the play before it's run, based on the formation. I'd like to see just how much of that is true. On a limited basis of course. 

I'm going to post the personnel and formation for 5 Bengals plays from random game(s). Each of these plays is first and 10. All you have to do is guess what play was run based off who was lined up where. If you really have the cajones, be a bit more descriptive in your answer. Don't just say "run" or "pass". 

Got it? Good luck.

Play #1:
11 personnel:  bunch formation-- X left (boyd), slot left (hurst), slot right (tee), Z right (chase)
QB under center, RB i formation. No movement pre-snap. 

Play #2:
12 personnel: (after shift), Y left (sample inline), h-back right (hurst), slot right (thomas) split right (chase)
QB under center, RB i formation. Pre-snap shift thomas and hurst from left to right.

Play #3:
11 personnel:  split left (tee), h-back left (hurst), offset stack right (slot chase, Z boyd)
QB shotgun, RB offset left. No movement pre-snap.

Play #4:
11 personnel:  split left (chase), slot left (boyd), h-back right (hurst), Z right (tee)
QB shotgun, RB offset right. No movement pre-snap.

Play #5:
12 personnel: 2 TE left (sample in-line, hurst h-back), split right (chase), slot right (tee)
QB under center, RB i formation. No movement pre-snap.

Play 1 is a half back stretch to the right.

Play 2 Drop back screen.

Play 3: Pass.

Play 4: Pass

Play 5:half back stretch to the right.

[NotBigzo]

Lot of you guys are bitches for not playing.

[*Synric*]

(09-22-2022, 10:47 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: I expect Synric and AU165 to be the only one’s to come in and answer all of these lol.

(09-22-2022, 03:44 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: I think they're both smart enough to already know that there are options with every formation and personnel grouping, depending on what the defense is showing, that without an exhaustive film study, it's folly to try and predict what the play will be. 

On the surface, you have a 50/50 shot if you just say pass or run and the Bengals do have a tendency to be predictable--though i'd like to see some stats from Goose, from our conversation earlier--based on under center and shotgun, i think the every day fan just has a confirmation bias when they see 2 straight runs from under center fail. 

There are multiple things wrong with this team right now but i just got bored seeing people say "i knew what they were going to run when they came to the line!", so i threw this together. Thought it might be a fun little game and i might continue it. 

No chance could I answer these 100% no one could so much missing information and even then it's still a guess.

He said H-Back does that mean the tight end is lined up to the 3 yards deep in the backfield strong side or half a yard off the Y? He said slot is Boyd is he stacked or wide? Motion does it mean across the formation or same side wide to stacked?

Spacing is important.

With the info I would have said Chase in the slot as a pass #3 and any 12 personnel a run.

[Tony]

I mean we can play this game and it won't prove much. During the game the average person can see how it's going and what's being called and it will continue being called.