ESPN Says We're Still Alive And My Reasons For Hope!

[BFritz21]

Trying to be realistic in this thread and not a homer.

Of all the 0-2 teams in the NFL, ESPN ranks us as having the best chance to still make the playoffs.

For some reason, even though I'm logged in to both, it's letting me view the article on my phone but not on my computer, so I'll try and copy and I'm posting from my computer.

Number five on their list is the Falcons, Panthers are fourth, the Raiders are third, the Titans are second, and we're first.

I understand our offensive line was horrible, which I think it's time to get rid of Pollack and Zac has to be less predictable, or at least one of those two.

We got demolished in the pass rush in the first two games and Burrow got killed, but let's also not forget that the Steelers have Watt and the Cowboys have Parsons and they're two of the best pass rushers in the league.

In the opening game, we beat the Steelers if Harris doesn't get hurt or we had a decent backup long snapper.

The article mentions how Burrow's QBR is 97.0 when he gets the ball out within two seconds of the snap, which is second best in the league, but then falls to 42.7 beyond two seconds, which is 25. It's no surprise that it's that low because he's usually on the run, getting hit, the ball's getting tipped, or Burrow has defenders up in his grill.

The article suggests maybe going back to five-wide sets, which Burrow was deadly with in college. It doesn't seem logical to take away blockers, but Burrow might be more comfortable and would have more options to get rid of the ball to if the pressure comes that fast.

It says a running game might be another solution to help but Mixon hasn't been great, either. I also blame Taylor's play calling for this because I've seen him run counters and delayed handoffs to Mixon when Mixon's strength seems to be to give him the ball running full speed to hit the hole quickly and then make people miss. I'm not saying dives up the middle every play but even the off-tackle plays take too long. Make the backers decide to play the run or hesitate and let Mixon get 4 to 5 yards a pop.

It says that the Jets have a bad defense, so this might be the perfect solution to jumpstart our offense but then also mentions that their strength is their pass rush.

If we can pull out a win against the Jets, I think it will give us confidence and then we have a streak of games that are all winnable.

Who-Dey!

[KillerGoose]

(09-22-2022, 06:06 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: Trying to be realistic in this thread and not a homer.

Of all the 0-2 teams in the NFL, ESPN ranks us as having the best chance to still make the playoffs.

For some reason, even though I'm logged in to both, it's letting me view the article on my phone but not on my computer, so I'll try and copy and I'm posting from my computer.

Number five on their list is the Falcons, Panthers are fourth, the Raiders are third, the Titans are second, and we're first.

I understand our offensive line was horrible, which I think it's time to get rid of Pollack and Zac has to be less predictable, or at least one of those two.

We got demolished in the pass rush in the first two games and Burrow got killed, but let's also not forget that the Steelers have Watt and the Cowboys have Parsons and they're two of the best pass rushers in the league.

In the opening game, we beat the Steelers if Harris doesn't get hurt or we had a decent backup long snapper.

The article mentions how Burrow's QBR is 97.0 when he gets the ball out within two seconds of the snap, which is second best in the league, but then falls to 42.7 beyond two seconds, which is 25. It's no surprise that it's that low because he's usually on the run, getting hit, the ball's getting tipped, or Burrow has defenders up in his grill.

The article suggests maybe going back to five-wide sets, which Burrow was deadly with in college. It doesn't seem logical to take away blockers, but Burrow might be more comfortable and would have more options to get rid of the ball to if the pressure comes that fast.

It says a running game might be another solution to help but Mixon hasn't been great, either. I also blame Taylor's play calling for this because I've seen him run counters and delayed handoffs to Mixon when Mixon's strength seems to be to give him the ball running full speed to hit the hole quickly and then make people miss. I'm not saying dives up the middle every play but even the off-tackle plays take too long. Make the backers decide to play the run or hesitate and let Mixon get 4 to 5 yards a pop.

It says that the Jets have a bad defense, so this might be the perfect solution to jumpstart our offense but then also mentions that their strength is their pass rush.

If we can pull out a win against the Jets, I think it will give us confidence and then we have a streak of games that are all winnable.

Who-Dey!

Cincinnati definitely still has hope, but it is faint and they need a turnaround quick. This is how quickly it escalates. These percentages provided are historical numbers, but these are the percentage chance of a playoff berth based on starting record...

0-2: 11.3%. Since 1990, when the NFL expanded to a 12 team format, 265 teams have started 0-2. Only 30 of those teams have made the playoffs.

0-3: 3.4%. The timeline I am finding is a little different here, but this is since 1980. I know, I know, but I am not aggregating this data myself and am relying on other peoples work. Since 1980, 176 teams have started 0-3 and only six have made the playoffs.

0-4: <1%. I don't need to know how many teams have started 0-4 to calculate this. Only one 0-4 team has ever made the NFL playoffs - the 1992 Chargers. 

Cincinnati has slightly better odds given there are 17 games and the AFC North is still within reach so early, but a loss to the Jets would be absolutely brutal. Personally, I would call this a must-win game. 

[CJD]

The Bengals were 2-1 after week 3 last year with pretty much the same first two weeks as this year with the small exception of getting a huge break in week 1 rather than getting a huge shaft in week 1.

If they come out and beat the Jets the way they should be able to, we'll be 1-2, the rest of the division will be, at best, 2-1, and we'll be off to the races with 5 more division games to make up ground.

If the Bengals play up to their potential, they'll undoubtedly make the playoffs. It isn't even close to out of reach. The whole 11.3% statistic, remember, includes pretty much every team that people knew were going to get a top 5 pick from the beginning of the season. If you checked stats for expected contenders going 0-2 and still reaching the playoffs, I bet the number jumps pretty high.

We'll see how Sunday goes, but I fully expect that we leave New Jersey 1-2 and well on our way to turning this season around. No one calls it quits with 88% of the season left to play.

[THE PISTONS]

(09-22-2022, 06:47 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: The Bengals were 2-1 after week 3 last year with pretty much the same first two weeks as this year with the small exception of getting a huge break in week 1 rather than getting a huge shaft in week 1.

If they come out and beat the Jets the way they should be able to, we'll be 1-2, the rest of the division will be, at best, 2-1, and we'll be off to the races with 5 more division games to make up ground.

If the Bengals play up to their potential, they'll undoubtedly make the playoffs. It isn't even close to out of reach. The whole 11.3% statistic, remember, includes pretty much every team that people knew were going to get a top 5 pick from the beginning of the season. If you checked stats for expected contenders going 0-2 and still reaching the playoffs, I bet the number jumps pretty high.

We'll see how Sunday goes, but I fully expect that we leave New Jersey 1-2 and well on our way to turning this season around. No one calls it quits with 88% of the season left to play.

The schedule gets brutally hard late in the year.

Gotta beat the Jets. Dolphins game will be tough.

[NUGDUKWE]

The thing I think our loses really comes down to is that we haven't helped out our tackles. We spent money on the line and expected it to be better and not need help and it has worked out horrendously. We need better protection and it isn't all on the oline. I hope this game is a get right game but we need to be prepared that we will still struggle and need to give some help to our tackles at times.

[kevin]

ESPN may be saying Bengals are still alive, but with a 50 / 50 chance of going to 0-3 Sunday, they are on Life Support and in Critical Condition. If The Jets pull the plug, Bengals play-off hopes die in 2022 season.

[Sled21]

This whole idea of can't make the playoffs at 0-2 is just bs. There are 17 games, and 10-7 likely gets you in the playoffs. That means we can lose the first two, and 5 more along the way. Nothing to worry about yet. And guess what, Pittsburgh now has 2 losses as well.

[*PhilHos*]

(09-23-2022, 07:58 AM)Sled21 Wrote: This whole idea of can't make the playoffs at 0-2 is just bs. There are 17 games, and 10-7 likely gets you in the playoffs. That means we can lose the first two, and 5 more along the way. Nothing to worry about yet. And guess what, Pittsburgh now has 2 losses as well.

Not to mention that most teams that start 0-2 or 0-3 do so because they are bad teams. Now, it's possible we're back to being a bad team, but it's unlikely. 

[Sled21]

(09-23-2022, 11:19 AM)PhilHos Wrote: Not to mention that most teams that start 0-2 or 0-3 do so because they are bad teams. Now, it's possible we're back to being a bad team, but it's unlikely. 

Right, and the teams making it to the playoffs are usually the teams that peak towards the end of the season, not the beginning of it. This line, with the exception of Volston, are all proven vets. They'll get it figured out and improve, as will Joe. 

[TecmoBengals]

If we win the next two and are 2-2, there is hope. If we end up 0-3, it's time to see if Soothsayer Ocho can correctly predict rounds 1-3 again with the draft much earlier than we all anticipated thinking about.

[fredtoast]

(09-22-2022, 06:16 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: 0-4: <1%. I don't need to know how many teams have started 0-4 to calculate this. Only one 0-4 team has ever made the NFL playoffs - the 1992 Chargers. 

'76 Steelers started 1-4 and did not lose another game until the AFC Championship.

[Roland]

(09-23-2022, 11:19 AM)PhilHos Wrote: Not to mention that most teams that start 0-2 or 0-3 do so because they are bad teams. Now, it's possible we're back to being a bad team, but it's unlikely. 

Yes, and also for most of the years being used in these statistics there were only two wild card spots per conference.  Now there are three.

It sucks that the Bengals squandered two very winnable games with a tough schedule ahead.  But if they get right, 0-2 is no more of a problem than any of the two game losing streaks they had last year.

[Tony]

(09-22-2022, 06:16 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Cincinnati definitely still has hope, but it is faint and they need a turnaround quick. This is how quickly it escalates. These percentages provided are historical numbers, but these are the percentage chance of a playoff berth based on starting record...

0-2: 11.3%. Since 1990, when the NFL expanded to a 12 team format, 265 teams have started 0-2. Only 30 of those teams have made the playoffs.

0-3: 3.4%. The timeline I am finding is a little different here, but this is since 1980. I know, I know, but I am not aggregating this data myself and am relying on other peoples work. Since 1980, 176 teams have started 0-3 and only six have made the playoffs.

0-4: <1%. I don't need to know how many teams have started 0-4 to calculate this. Only one 0-4 team has ever made the NFL playoffs - the 1992 Chargers. 

Cincinnati has slightly better odds given there are 17 games and the AFC North is still within reach so early, but a loss to the Jets would be absolutely brutal. Personally, I would call this a must-win game. 

I heard ESPN say in the last 20 years only 1 team has made the playoffs after a 0-2 start...

[Nicomo Cosca]

(09-23-2022, 12:18 PM)Tony Wrote: I heard ESPN say in the last 20 years only 1 team has made the playoffs after a 0-2 start...

That’s definitely not true. In 2018 alone 2 teams did it (Seahawks & Texans).

[fredtoast]

(09-23-2022, 12:34 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: That’s definitely not true. In 2018 alone 2 teams did it (Seahawks & Texans).

NO in '17
MIA in '16
HOU and SEA in '15
IND in '14
CAR in '13

So 8 times in just the last 10 years.

Texans in '18 are only team to make it after starting 0-3.  Maybe that is what they were talking about.

[Joelist]

Let's be honest - we are 0-2 but easily could have been 2-0 save for an extremely fluky long snapper issue in Game 1 and ZTs irrational playcalling on the last offensive series in Game 2. With better playcalling against Dallas they either get the ball to Money Mac range or go to OT. If they come out agaimnst the Jets and finally look like they have their crap together this is definitely savable.

[*ochocincos*]

(09-22-2022, 06:06 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: Trying to be realistic in this thread and not a homer.

Of all the 0-2 teams in the NFL, ESPN ranks us as having the best chance to still make the playoffs.

For some reason, even though I'm logged in to both, it's letting me view the article on my phone but not on my computer, so I'll try and copy and I'm posting from my computer.

Number five on their list is the Falcons, Panthers are fourth, the Raiders are third, the Titans are second, and we're first.

I understand our offensive line was horrible, which I think it's time to get rid of Pollack and Zac has to be less predictable, or at least one of those two.

We got demolished in the pass rush in the first two games and Burrow got killed, but let's also not forget that the Steelers have Watt and the Cowboys have Parsons and they're two of the best pass rushers in the league.

In the opening game, we beat the Steelers if Harris doesn't get hurt or we had a decent backup long snapper.

The article mentions how Burrow's QBR is 97.0 when he gets the ball out within two seconds of the snap, which is second best in the league, but then falls to 42.7 beyond two seconds, which is 25. It's no surprise that it's that low because he's usually on the run, getting hit, the ball's getting tipped, or Burrow has defenders up in his grill.

The article suggests maybe going back to five-wide sets, which Burrow was deadly with in college. It doesn't seem logical to take away blockers, but Burrow might be more comfortable and would have more options to get rid of the ball to if the pressure comes that fast.

It says a running game might be another solution to help but Mixon hasn't been great, either. I also blame Taylor's play calling for this because I've seen him run counters and delayed handoffs to Mixon when Mixon's strength seems to be to give him the ball running full speed to hit the hole quickly and then make people miss. I'm not saying dives up the middle every play but even the off-tackle plays take too long. Make the backers decide to play the run or hesitate and let Mixon get 4 to 5 yards a pop.

It says that the Jets have a bad defense, so this might be the perfect solution to jumpstart our offense but then also mentions that their strength is their pass rush.

If we can pull out a win against the Jets, I think it will give us confidence and then we have a streak of games that are all winnable.

Who-Dey!

It probably doesn't make much difference if the Bengals go 5 wide.
The opponent is beating the OL with just a 3-man or 4-man rush.

Also, the Bengals don't have enough good pass catchers to go 5 wide.

Bengals need to find a RB and TE who can block.
Maybe also try to throw in more 2-TE looks.

[THE PISTONS]

(09-23-2022, 01:41 PM)ochocincos Wrote: It probably doesn't make much difference if the Bengals go 5 wide.
The opponent is beating the OL with just a 3-man or 4-man rush.

Also, the Bengals don't have enough good pass catchers to go 5 wide.

Bengals need to find a RB and TE who can block.
Maybe also try to throw in more 2-TE looks.

Yep. Teams aren't blitzing us much.

We need to run the ball to get them out of Cover 2.

[THE PISTONS]

Can we save the season? Yes.

But, there's little margin for losing to like the Browns, Ravens, Jets, Dolphins, etc.

Bills and Chiefs are likely losses. Chargers. Bucs. We probably lose. So that's 6 losses.

[Joelist]

(09-23-2022, 01:51 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: Yep. Teams aren't blitzing us much.

We need to run the ball to get them out of Cover 2.

Runs, quick slants, digs in the flats, basically run and actually execute short/intermediate passing. That will kill keeping the safeties back.