Hello...do you want to play a game?

[reuben.ahmed]

Against Pittsburgh in Week 1, Cincinnati attempted just two passing plays with Burrow aligned under center.
Of their 70 passing plays, 68 of those occurred with Burrow in the shotgun.

That trend largely continued into Week 2.
Of their 46 passing plays, Burrow was in the shotgun for 39 of them.

https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/lists/joe-burrow-bengals-steelers/

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2022/9/19/23360700/bengals-joe-burrow-sacks-dallas-cowboys-offense-analysis

There is also a steelers player article talking about how easy it was to guess the Bengals play call based on the personnel, not just if it's run or pass. It doesn't matter what we think when the other team has players who have our playbook.

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

Lots of backpedaling and folks who don't understand the assignment here.....

[*michaelsean*]

(09-22-2022, 10:42 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote:

Huh.  I always thought he said "I want to play a game".  Getting too old to rely solely on my memory.

[*SHRacerX*]

(09-22-2022, 12:53 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote:

I keep reading on here how so many think they can call the play before it's run, based on the formation. I'd like to see just how much of that is true. On a limited basis of course. 

I'm going to post the personnel and formation for 5 Bengals plays from random game(s). Each of these plays is first and 10. All you have to do is guess what play was run based off who was lined up where. If you really have the cajones, be a bit more descriptive in your answer. Don't just say "run" or "pass". 

Got it? Good luck.

Play #1:
11 personnel:  bunch formation-- X left (boyd), slot left (hurst), slot right (tee), Z right (chase)
QB under center, RB i formation. No movement pre-snap. 

Play #2:
12 personnel: (after shift), Y left (sample inline), h-back right (hurst), slot right (thomas) split right (chase)
QB under center, RB i formation. Pre-snap shift thomas and hurst from left to right.

Play #3:
11 personnel:  split left (tee), h-back left (hurst), offset stack right (slot chase, Z boyd)
QB shotgun, RB offset left. No movement pre-snap.

Play #4:
11 personnel:  split left (chase), slot left (boyd), h-back right (hurst), Z right (tee)
QB shotgun, RB offset right. No movement pre-snap.

Play #5:
12 personnel: 2 TE left (sample in-line, hurst h-back), split right (chase), slot right (tee)
QB under center, RB i formation. No movement pre-snap.

Well, knowing down and distance is a big part of how I am able to predict and during game scenarios

[fredtoast]

(09-22-2022, 11:51 PM)reuben.ahmed Wrote: There is also a steelers player article talking about how easy it was to guess the Bengals play call based on the personnel, not just if it's run or pass. It doesn't matter what we think when the other team has players who have our playbook.

Link?


Obviously it does not matter if they have our playbook because our offense abused their defense for 436 yards and 31 first downs.

[fredtoast]

(09-23-2022, 02:44 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: Well, knowing down and distance is a big part of how I am able to predict and during game scenarios

They are all first and ten.

[fredtoast]

(09-23-2022, 09:17 AM)Wyche Wrote: Lots of backpedaling and folks who don't understand the assignment here.....

This is what always happens.  Fans claim they can predict the plays and then when you ask them the rules for how they do it they have no answer.

[sandwedge]

I believe you can run or pass out of these formations. So, I would think that would make "predicting" becomes a little harder.

[*rfaulk34*]

(09-24-2022, 02:04 PM)sandwedge Wrote: I believe you can run or pass out of these formations. So, I would think that would make "predicting" becomes a little harder.

That's where i found a fatal flaw in what i posted. 

All of these plays were from the Dallas game in the first half. They're all from the scripted plays that are set from the get go. There's going to be more diversity and unpredicablity built in to them. 

Don't get me wrong, i still don't believe anyone when they say "i knew what they were going to run!!111!!!!1!11". They have definite tendencies, especially in the 2nd half when they're calling plays on the run. There have been many things pointed out here and online that they should be doing to help the offense. 

Here is the disparity in 1st and 2nd half, scripted vs non-scripted from that game...

1st half:
total 1st down snaps- 11, pass-5 runs-5 penalty-1
u/c- 7, pass-3 run-3 other-1
shotgun- 4, pass-2, run-2
play action- 2
runs 4 yds or <- 5 
runs 5 yds or >- 0
pass 9 yds or <- 1
pass 10 yds or >- 2
incomplete- 1 sack- 1

2nd half:
total 1st down snaps- 18, pass-5 run-12 penalty-1
u/c- 12, pass-1 run-11 
shotgun- 4, pass-4 run-0
play action- 2
runs 4 yds or <- 7
runs 5 yds or >- 5
pass 9 yds or <- 1
pass 10 yds or >-1
incomplete- 2 sack-1

[reuben.ahmed]

(09-23-2022, 09:17 AM)Wyche Wrote: Lots of backpedaling and folks who don't understand the assignment here.....

The funny part is people are avoiding the stats and it doesn't matter if a fan can or cannot guess the play when the other teams have outright said they can, lol.

Pass or run, easy:
Against Pittsburgh in Week 1, Cincinnati attempted just two passing plays with Burrow aligned under center.
Of their 70 passing plays, 68 of those occurred with Burrow in the shotgun.

That trend largely continued into Week 2.
Of their 46 passing plays, Burrow was in the shotgun for 39 of them.

Actual play, looking for the steelers article where a player who was somehow related to the bengals (practice player?) helped them out. He mentioned it was easy to tell based on personnel. i.e. mixon can't block and sample can't receive. Looking at their roster it might have been Renell Wren, can't find his quote yet. They signed him on september 1st (DL).

You don't have to be 100% right to "guess" a play all game. Guessing if it's run or pass has to be huge, especially against an offense who can't beat you either way right now.

[fredtoast]

(09-25-2022, 12:03 PM)reuben.ahmed Wrote: Actual play, looking for the steelers article where a player who was somehow related to the bengals (practice player?) helped them out. He mentioned it was easy to tell based on personnel. i.e. mixon can't block and sample can't receive. Looking at their roster it might have been Renell Wren, can't find his quote yet. They signed him on september 1st (DL).

We had 436 yards and THIRTY-ONE first downs against the Steelers.  They didn't have anything figured out.  We ran up and down the field on them.


Bengals are throwing the ball around 80% of the time when in shotgun formation.  That is less than several other teams and not far off the league average of 70%.  

[RunKijanaRun]

It’s much easier to do this exercise when there’s context.

I’ll give it a shot, though. I’m not one of the folks who thinks he can guess every play, although the context makes a big difference.

1. Probably a Mixon off tackle
2. Sounds like the play is designed to take advantage of a misdirection. Probably a pass to the left side.
3. Either a screen or off tackle r. I’ll say off tackle rush, r side.
4. Quick cross to Boyd
5. My guess is the TE are in the package to give additional blocking and blind side protection. Probably a post for Chase or a short look to Boyd.


I may have missed all of them, but oh well. Fun idea.