Target Hurst

[Frank Booth]

(11-09-2022, 04:14 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: 1. Why are you bringing up Uzomah? I didn't want to re-sign Uzomah in the offseason and I was on board with signing Hurst as a cheap gap TE. My posts had nothing to do with Uzomah.

2. Since you seem obsessed with Uzomah, I will point out that he got a 1st down on 63.3% of his receptions last year. Hurst is currently getting a first down on 47.4% of his receptions this year. 

everyone who criticizes Hurst just so happens to critique him for the exact 2 things CJ had more success with. Dont be dishonest

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(11-09-2022, 04:39 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: everyone who criticizes Hurst just so happens to critique him for the exact 2 things CJ had more success with. Dont be dishonest

Look up my posting history on Uzomah over the offseason. Calling me a liar on it, you're just making yourself look an asshole. 

I'm criticizing Hurst for a thing that he is one of the worst in the league at, and he's gotten significantly worse at in every year of his 5 year career. He's averaging 0.1 yards more per reception this year than Drew Sample has in his career. It's not good.

But thanks for trying to turn my post into something it wasn't and then calling me a liar because you were wrong.

[*rfaulk34*]

(11-09-2022, 02:59 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: A TE doesn't have to be a deep threat, but they need to give you more than a running back.

There are 31 TEs with at least 15 catches so far this year. Hurst's 8.0 AVG is 30th. The only guy who had worse was Minnesota's Irv Smith Jr who missed all of 2021 with a knee injury, and they went out and traded for a TE at the deadline.

It's not that Hurst's lack of yardage per catch is mediocre, mediocre would be fine, it's that it's truly terrible. Even if we start extending this out to last year... Out of 88 TE seasons 2021-2022 with at least 15 receptions, Hurst's 8.0 AVG in 2022 is 85th.

The fact that it's gone down significantly every year of his career should be alarming, and predates him being in Taylor's offense.

I don't discount the point, i just think you might be overstating how important it is for this offense. 

I'd prefer it be around 10.0 minimum, but if he's moving the sticks consistently, i have less of an issue with it. I'd probably look more at what rate he converts 3rd downs rather than YPC.

[Frank Booth]

(11-09-2022, 04:57 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Look up my posting history on Uzomah over the offseason. Calling me a liar on it, you're just making yourself look an asshole. 

I'm criticizing Hurst for a thing that he is one of the worst in the league at, and he's gotten significantly worse at in every year of his 5 year career. He's averaging 0.1 yards more per reception this year than Drew Sample has in his career. It's not good.

But thanks for trying to turn my post into something it wasn't and then calling me a liar because you were wrong.

it's pretty simple, other than the ravens years, he played on teams with bad o-lines and bad qb play.

this o-line currently is worse than the one last season pre Reiff injury. All of those big plays to CJ occured when Reiff was healthy. Also Spain and Jonah were healthy. Do you recall any big downfield plays to any tight ends post bye week last season? I certainly cant.

but Hurst is gonna have the best season of his career due to playing with Joe B. Simple as that. 

[TheFan]

(11-09-2022, 04:57 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Look up my posting history on Uzomah over the offseason. Calling me a liar on it, you're just making yourself look an asshole. 

I'm criticizing Hurst for a thing that he is one of the worst in the league at, and he's gotten significantly worse at in every year of his 5 year career. He's averaging 0.1 yards more per reception this year than Drew Sample has in his career. It's not good.

But thanks for trying to turn my post into something it wasn't and then calling me a liar because you were wrong.

I'd be curious to see how many routes he actually gets to run downfield compared to most TEs. He almost never is running seam routes and any time he does get it its no more than 5-10 yard dump offs. 

He hasn't been good about getting anything after the catch but it seems a lot of his catches have been fairly acrobatic ones where he's having to dive or about to be going out of bounds. Not sure how much of that is one him or the offense. Given his history I'd say it's a bit of both 

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(11-09-2022, 06:56 PM)TheFan Wrote: I'd be curious to see how many routes he actually gets to run downfield compared to most TEs. He almost never is running seam routes and any time he does get it its no more than 5-10 yard dump offs. 

He hasn't been good about getting anything after the catch but it seems a lot of his catches have been fairly acrobatic ones where he's having to dive or about to be going out of bounds. Not sure how much of that is one him or the offense. Given his history I'd say it's a bit of both 

One thing I really like about Hurst is when he catches it and fights for more yards, he holds onto the ball tight.

Sometimes a TE can fumble when doing this, but it seems Hurst makes sure this does not happen.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(11-09-2022, 06:56 PM)TheFan Wrote: I'd be curious to see how many routes he actually gets to run downfield compared to most TEs. He almost never is running seam routes and any time he does get it its no more than 5-10 yard dump offs. 

He hasn't been good about getting anything after the catch but it seems a lot of his catches have been fairly acrobatic ones where he's having to dive or about to be going out of bounds. Not sure how much of that is one him or the offense. Given his history I'd say it's a bit of both 

Sometimes that's all a guy can run reliably. I was being a bit sarcastic when I mentioned Auden Tate, but it was also a little serious that seemingly always having to make tough/contested catches isn't actually a good thing. If you're getting separation you should have some easy ones mixed in there. As for the YAC that's actually another point of concern with the AVG. It's not just the average that's dropped every single year he's been in the NFL. Both his yards before the catch and yards after the catch have dropped each year too. When it's a 5 year pattern of it all going down each and every year, it gets harder to explain away by it just being an offense change.

Yards Before The Catch Per Reception
6.8
6.7
5.8
5.1
4.7

Yards After The Catch Per Reception
5.7
4.9
4.4
3.4
3.2

It's not like there's a rebound year in the middle there that you can be like "see, he just needs to be used that way!", it's dropped off every single year one after the other without fail. 8.0 yards per reception is already running back territory. Any more shrinkage and it'll be bad running back territory. There are 137 qualified pass catchers in the NFL right now (WR, TE, RB) and Hurst is at 111th. There are only 3 non-RBs on the list below him, 2 of them are on the Bucs, and the final 1 missed all of 2021 with a knee injury and his team traded for a new guy to replace him.

[casear2727]

(11-09-2022, 08:35 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Sometimes that's all a guy can run reliably. I was being a bit sarcastic when I mentioned Auden Tate, but it was also a little serious that seemingly always having to make tough/contested catches isn't actually a good thing. If you're getting separation you should have some easy ones mixed in there. As for the YAC that's actually another point of concern with the AVG. It's not just the average that's dropped every single year he's been in the NFL. Both his yards before the catch and yards after the catch have dropped each year too. When it's a 5 year pattern of it all going down each and every year, it gets harder to explain away by it just being an offense change.

Yards Before The Catch Per Reception
6.8
6.7
5.8
5.1
4.7

Yards After The Catch Per Reception
5.7
4.9
4.4
3.4
3.2

It's not like there's a rebound year in the middle there that you can be like "see, he just needs to be used that way!", it's dropped off every single year one after the other without fail. 8.0 yards per reception is already running back territory. Any more shrinkage and it'll be bad running back territory. There are 137 qualified pass catchers in the NFL right now (WR, TE, RB) and Hurst is at 111th. There are only 3 non-RBs on the list below him, 2 of them are on the Bucs, and the final 1 missed all of 2021 with a knee injury and his team traded for a new guy to replace him.

This bitching about Hurst is puzzling? He is a much, much better receiver than CJ.  Burrow is going to him on 3rd and short, you don't get much separation 3-4 yards downfield.  He has been open on longer routes, especially early, and Joe did not go to him.  When he gets the ball in space it usually takes more than one guy to bring him down.

Most NFL offenses are 2 WR and 1 TE priority based.  We have a 3 WR - 1 TE priority passing game.  Hurst has been a bright spot and a reliable go to receiver, and his contract makes his play thus far even more appealing.

[SunsetBengal]

Hurst is on track for a career year, as far as catches and total yardage goes.  At the midway point of the season, he's sitting at 38/303/2TDs.


As for Ceej, who took his talents to NY for a modest payday, he's currently at 10/82/0TDs.  So, not only are the Jets completely not using Uzomah, he's also paying outrageous NJ State and local taxes..

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(11-11-2022, 01:32 PM)casear2727 Wrote: This bitching about Hurst is puzzling? He is a much, much better receiver than CJ.  Burrow is going to him on 3rd and short, you don't get much separation 3-4 yards downfield.  He has been open on longer routes, especially early, and Joe did not go to him.  When he gets the ball in space it usually takes more than one guy to bring him down.

Most NFL offenses are 2 WR and 1 TE priority based.  We have a 3 WR - 1 TE priority passing game.  Hurst has been a bright spot and a reliable go to receiver, and his contract makes his play thus far even more appealing.

Again, I really don't give a shit about CJ Uzomah. This is the last time I respond to someone quoting me in this thread and mentioning CJ, because that's not what my point is about, it was never what my point was about, so stop trying to make it about it. This conversation started with talking about extending/re-signing Hurst for 2023 and/or beyond.

Hurst targets by down..
1st: 15
2nd: 18
3rd: 15

Hurst targets by yards to go..
1-3: 8
4-6: 5
7-9: 8
10+: 27

He doesn't average more than 8.5 yards per catch regardless of any of those 7 criteria.

...I don't know if there's many teams at all running 2 WRs/1 TE. They're almost all running 3 WRs/1 TE, or 2 WRs/2 TEs. There's only 3 teams with a FB playing at least 1/3rd of the snaps.

[*Go Cards*]

(11-11-2022, 01:32 PM)casear2727 Wrote: This bitching about Hurst is puzzling? He is a much, much better receiver than CJ.  Burrow is going to him on 3rd and short, you don't get much separation 3-4 yards downfield.  He has been open on longer routes, especially early, and Joe did not go to him.  When he gets the ball in space it usually takes more than one guy to bring him down.

Most NFL offenses are 2 WR and 1 TE priority based.  We have a 3 WR - 1 TE priority passing game.  Hurst has been a bright spot and a reliable go to receiver, and his contract makes his play thus far even more appealing.

Don't get it either, could not be happier with Hurst and he is more than I expected him to be actually

TheBengals have not been firing on all cylinders in many of the games and Hurst has made some tough catches for the Bengals. When they get it going  believe he will get the long ones the doubters seek for credibility as well. 

Hurst has played 9 games with the Bengals, lets' look at CJ's last 9 games of the year when the Bengals made their playoff run and compare since he deemed himself the leader and spokesman at the end of the season. 

In the last 9 games of regular season CJ had 32-237 yds and ZERO TD's for a 7.4 ypc average and these are the games when it really counts. He did catch 1 TD in the playoffs so he caught 1 TD in his last 12 games and was kinged by the fans. 

Now he did start stronger in his first 9 games with 5 TD's and a 12.54 average but it seems the league adjusted quickly. 

Betting Hurst has a strong finish to the season and surpasses CJ down the stretch run when it counts. He has barely developed chemistry with Burrow being Joe missed camp and struggled early in games as well.  

Plus Hurst is tied for 7th in the NFL 1st down catches on 3rd down with 10 clutch 3rd down catches for first downs. 

Hurst is tied with the likes of Amari Cooper and only 1 behind Cooper Kupp, Travis Kelce, and Tyreek Hill despite Burrow struggling early on. 

The Bengals made the right move by saving money to bolster the O-line and adding Hurst. CJ's stats without Burrow are telling as well
10-82 yds and ZERO TD's compared to Hayden's 38-303 2TD's both being on new teams.  

Hope Hurst remains in stripes for years to come.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(11-11-2022, 02:17 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Again, I really don't give a shit about CJ Uzomah. This is the last time I respond to someone quoting me in this thread and mentioning CJ, because that's not what my point is about, it was never what my point was about, so stop trying to make it about it. This conversation started with talking about extending/re-signing Hurst for 2023 and/or beyond.

Hurst targets by down..
1st: 15
2nd: 18
3rd: 15

Hurst targets by yards to go..
1-3: 8
4-6: 5
7-9: 8
10+: 27

He doesn't average more than 8.5 yards per catch regardless of any of those 7 criteria.

...I don't know if there's many teams at all running 2 WRs/1 TE. They're almost all running 3 WRs/1 TE, or 2 WRs/2 TEs. There's only 3 teams with a FB playing at least 1/3rd of the snaps.

Still think Hurst's numbers would be much better if Burrow saw him and hit him when he was open earlier in the season.

Burrow was having trouble seeing the open guy for some reason, with Boyd and Hurst it was noticeable at least to me in a 
couple of games. As Casear said, he was open further down the field and Burrow just didn't go to him and instead targeted 
a doubled and often covered Chase. Glad to see Burrow seeing the entirety of the field again and hitting the open man.

Like I said earlier I think Hurst's YPC will go up as the season goes on cause of many factors. A better OL, a better run game,
and when Chase comes back more weapons for Burrow to choose from and Defenses cannot cover everyone.

[casear2727]

(11-11-2022, 02:17 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: ...I don't know if there's many teams at all running 2 WRs/1 TE. They're almost all running 3 WRs/1 TE, or 2 WRs/2 TEs. There's only 3 teams with a FB playing at least 1/3rd of the snaps.

I was referring to "priority", as in the TE is 3rd option over WR3 in many offenses, we know a few where the TE is the 1st option. Hayden will always be the 4th option for us.

I get that with us improving a little bit there is less to complain about, I just dont understand why dump on Hayden?  Guy has made incredible catches and played extremely hard, an obvious upgrade. 

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(11-11-2022, 04:03 PM)casear2727 Wrote: I was referring to "priority", as in the TE is 3rd option over WR3 in many offenses, we know a few where the TE is the 1st option. Hayden will always be the 4th option for us.

I get that with us improving a little bit there is less to complain about, I just dont understand why dump on Hayden?  Guy has made incredible catches and played extremely hard, an obvious upgrade. 

I don't think that is a facet of the offense so much as a facet of talent. If Kelce was in this exact offense, it would suddenly not be a 3 WR priority offense anymore. You just prioritize your best players.

Chase was out last week and Thomas or one of the Trents didn't suddenly pass Hurst in targets. If Higgins demands a trade next off-season if he doesn't get an extension all of a sudden it will likely be a 2 WR 1 TE offense. If Hurst was better he'd be more highly prioritized.

It isn't bitching or dumping on a guy to point out an alarming trend that has held strong for 5 straight years when it comes to if he should be signed next year when he turns 30.

[casear2727]

(11-11-2022, 05:33 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: I don't think that is a facet of the offense so much as a facet of talent. If Kelce was in this exact offense, it would suddenly not be a 3 WR priority offense anymore. You just prioritize your best players.

Chase was out last week and Thomas or one of the Trents didn't suddenly pass Hurst in targets. If Higgins demands a trade next off-season if he doesn't get an extension all of a sudden it will likely be a 2 WR 1 TE offense. If Hurst was better he'd be more highly prioritized.

It isn't bitching or dumping on a guy to point out an alarming trend that has held strong for 5 straight years when it comes to if he should be signed next year when he turns 30.

Without another TE on the bench learning we almost have to re-sign him and need to draft a good one.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(11-11-2022, 11:30 PM)casear2727 Wrote: Without another TE on the bench learning we almost have to re-sign him and need to draft a good one.

Sure would love to get one of the TE's in this next Draft and make TE a position of depth with not only good blockers but 
talented pass catchers. Michael Mayer, Brock Bowers, Sam LaPorta etc.

All the while learning behind Hayden Hurst for a bit. A 2 year deal won't break the bank for Hurst I am sure of it and we 
can still afford to pay the monster deals to Burrow, Chase and Logan who in my opinion are the must bring back players 
for the future. Anybody else we can bring back in Vonn Bell or Pratt or whatever would be gravy.

[BengalsRocker]

(11-11-2022, 05:33 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: I don't think that is a facet of the offense so much as a facet of talent. If Kelce was in this exact offense, it would suddenly not be a 3 WR priority offense anymore. You just prioritize your best players.

Chase was out last week and Thomas or one of the Trents didn't suddenly pass Hurst in targets. If Higgins demands a trade next off-season if he doesn't get an extension all of a sudden it will likely be a 2 WR 1 TE offense. If Hurst was better he'd be more highly prioritized.

It isn't bitching or dumping on a guy to point out an alarming trend that has held strong for 5 straight years when it comes to if he should be signed next year when he turns 30.

I get it.

Let the season play out and see if Hurst improves and stays healthy.

If he wants some huge contract, then absolutely they look elsewhere.

However, if he is older and not putting up numbers that warrant a big contract(as you have stated)then you'd think they could get him on a decent deal.

That makes him a depth piece and not necessarily their primary target at TE.

In other words.  I'd rather give him the money than Drew Sample at that point.

[BengalsRocker]

(11-12-2022, 03:34 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Sure would love to get one of the TE's in this next Draft and make TE a position of depth with not only good blockers but 
talented pass catchers. Michael Mayer, Brock Bowers, Sam LaPorta etc.

All the while learning behind Hayden Hurst for a bit. A 2 year deal won't break the bank for Hurst I am sure of it and we 
can still afford to pay the monster deals to Burrow, Chase and Logan who in my opinion are the must bring back players 
for the future. Anybody else we can bring back in Vonn Bell or Pratt or whatever would be gravy.

Still a lot of season left.

You know I like Hurst and the emotion/fire he brings at the position.

If they can find a good/great TE in the draft or FA...  then I'd take it.

I'm not necessarily ready to make Hurst the #1 TE and mentor to others quite yet.

His importance is growing in the current personnel. 

Let's see if he can get even better as the season progresses.

I think TLL is just tempering the excitement of Hurst being a "great" TE at this point.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(11-12-2022, 03:50 PM)BengalsRocker Wrote: I get it.

Let the season play out and see if Hurst improves and stays healthy.

If he wants some huge contract, then absolutely they look elsewhere.

However, if he is older and not putting up numbers that warrant a big contract(as you have stated)then you'd think they could get him on a decent deal.

That makes him a depth piece and not necessarily their primary target at TE.

In other words.  I'd rather give him the money than Drew Sample at that point.

What BengalsRocker said.

[Essex Johnson]

For what we are paying Hurst he performing just fine., he projected for 66 catches and over 550 yards and 4 TDs with around 8 yards a catch... It is pretty much a wash from CJ last season but saved a ton of $$ and is a slight upgrade in passing game. I still like to look to draft a TE in 3 to 5th round regardless if we bring Hurst back if affordable