Mahomes' decision on 3rd and 3

[CJD]

I don't want to belabor a point too much when we already won the game, but one thing I've seen from a LOT of KC fans in the aftermath of the game is the sentiment that Patrick Mahomes essentially threw the game because he didn't take the "easy first down" on that final 3rd and 3 play.

The easy first down they are referring to is, they claim, the RB McKinnon was wide open and Mahomes either didn't see him, which they say is his fault for not knowing the play call well enough, or he chose not to throw to him because he was going for the deep ball.

I didn't remember seeing any wide open player on that play in real time, but I felt bad that their QB missed such a wide open receiver that could have led to them winning. It made me feel like our win wasn't as "deserved" or something. So I went back and watched the highlights of the game, specifically for that play and, well...


https://youtu.be/Yp8zR0CqgKM?t=677

From what I can tell, it's a delayed flat route in case he is needed as a blocker. He comes out of the backfield but, before he is able to get his head around, Mahomes is already being chased by Ossai. You can see in the snapshots in this album that, in the moment that the RB has his head turned around and is ready to receive the ball, Mahomes has already broken down to evade the rusher. And, to my eye, there is never a time when he would reasonably be able to throw the ball to the RB because he's either dodging Ossai, running from Ossai or the RB is behind players that Mahomes wouldn't really be able to get him the ball.


RB is not yet out into his route


RB is beginning his route, but his head is not turned around and the DE is already causing Mahomes to move. If Mahomes attempts to lob it over the top here, there are two Bengals defenders waiting.


The RB could be open to an over the head pass, but Mahomes is in full evasion mode at this point.


This is the only frame that Mahomes may have been able to throw the ball, but he's already tucked the ball to evade the DE.

I've seen this take by KC fans on Reddit, on their forums and even on our pages, like Cincyjungle comments. I'm not sure how they all uniformly came to the same conclusion that this was a major miss by Mahomes. It looks to me like there was never any reasonable window for him to do it.

Maybe they're just used to Mahomes making unreasonable plays? haha I don't know. Am I seeing this wrong? Did Mahomes make a bad play? Or did Ossai just make a great (and timely) play?

[*bengalfan74*]

And, I know it's a woulda, coulda, shoulda thing. But.... we very easily and probably should have beat them by at least two if not three scores.

Boyd dropped a sure TD, we had the ball first and goal on 5 or whatever, and at the end of the game could have most likely scored.

So in my eyes they have no gripe. They're lucky it wasn't worse.

[Fullrock]

Some of y’all need to quit worrying so much about what other team’s fans are saying.

Who cares if he missed an open receiver. Happens all the time. You never “feel bad” about winning an NFL game.

[*michaelsean*]

(12-06-2022, 11:28 AM)bengalfan74 Wrote: And, I know it's a woulda, coulda, shoulda thing. But.... we very easily and probably should have beat them by at least two if not three scores.

Boyd dropped a sure TD, we had the ball first and goal on 5 or whatever, and at the end of the game could have most likely scored.

So in my eyes they have no gripe. They're lucky it wasn't worse.

Yup.  They should have lost by ten or more.

Also if your QB makes a mistake that's part of the game.  Limiting mistakes is probably the most important aspect of football.  Dropping a pass in the end zone with nobody near you is a mistake.  It's funny how they get to remove their mistakes and theoretically win, but the Bengals have to keep their mistakes.

[Interceptor]

But that's what happens when the QB is pressured. Given our fandom history, we should be experts (Nay, masters!) on the QB-side of the ball.

[BengalFanInCanada]

Mahomes didn't throw the ball because he felt he had an easy first down by running it.

He was stunned that he was caught from behind.

[Rubekahn29]

Bengals defense is definitely in his head. One huge difference between Burrow and Mahomes right now, is when Mahomes is under pressure, he panics and he looks for the big play. When Burrow is under pressure, he stays typically calm and will find his check down.

Allen and Mahomes have all the talent in the world, but Burrow’s football IQ is second to none right now in the NFL.

[higgy100]

(12-06-2022, 11:34 AM)Fullrock Wrote: Some of y’all need to quit worrying so much about what other team’s fans are saying.

Who cares if he missed an open receiver. Happens all the time. You never “feel bad” about winning an NFL game.

Yep. QB's miss wide open receivers/ RB's multiple snaps per game. Only so much time to go thru progressions with defenders coming at you and/or mixing up coverages/dropping DE's in coverage, etc..

[Memphis_Bengal]

Did they just think the defender at the 30 yard line disappeared forever when he left the screen?

[QueenCity]

Woulda, coulda, shoulda - Bengals win by 3 again.

[*michaelsean*]

(12-06-2022, 12:22 PM)Memphis_Bengal Wrote: Did they just think the defender at the 30 yard line disappeared forever when he left the screen?

Rapture

[*jason*]

(12-06-2022, 11:28 AM)bengalfan74 Wrote: And, I know it's a woulda, coulda, shoulda thing. But.... we very easily and probably should have beat them by at least two if not three scores.

Boyd dropped a sure TD, we had the ball first and goal on 5 or whatever, and at the end of the game could have most likely scored.

So in my eyes they have no gripe. They're lucky it wasn't worse.

We should hang that in the locker oom... You're lucky it wasn't worse.

[*bengalfan74*]

(12-06-2022, 11:53 AM)BengalFanInCanada Wrote: Mahomes didn't throw the ball because he felt he had an easy first down by running it.

He was stunned that he was caught from behind.

^This^

Mahomes was flabbergasted when he went down. He wanted to be the hero.

[George Cantstandya]

(12-06-2022, 11:34 AM)Fullrock Wrote: Some of y’all need to quit worrying so much about what other team’s fans are saying.

This.  The obsession recently (seems like the last 2 years or so) with what fans are saying on other team's message boards, threads from the enemy posts, is odd to me.  I couldn't care less what fans of other teams think or say.   "Hey everyone, those people are assholes.  So why don't we all follow everything they are saying about the Bengals and talk shit about it here."  

[Au165]

The term is "check and release". The back isn't even in the progression it's only there as a last ditch dump off. Mahomes is flushed by Hubbard and his eyes drop because a second rusher is coming after he avoid Hubbard he loses sight of the HB because he is too busy running for his life. It's easy for fans to say this sitting on a computer with an eagle eye view but the field of vision with a helmet on is limited at field level. This idea you see everything is one of the biggest misconceptions by fans watching games.

[*Go Cards*]

(12-06-2022, 11:53 AM)BengalFanInCanada Wrote: Mahomes didn't throw the ball because he felt he had an easy first down by running it.

He was stunned that he was caught from behind.

Exactly and the big boy Ossai was motoring to catch Mahomes from behind.

Plus after missing him big Joseph had to stop and switch directions and he still ran him down. 

Huge play that showed just what kind of athleticism the kid possesses.   

[CJD]

(12-06-2022, 12:37 PM)George Cantstandya Wrote: This.  The obsession recently (seems like the last 2 years or so) with what fans are saying on other team's message boards, threads from the enemy posts, is odd to me.  I couldn't care less what fans of other teams think or say.   "Hey everyone, those people are assholes.  So why don't we all follow everything they are saying about the Bengals and talk shit about it here."  

eh, it's just something to do. It's interesting to see how other teams perceive your team. Too easy to get sucked into the echo chambers on your own message boards, but if you think something and other teams' fans think it too, then you know it's real.

[CJD]

(12-06-2022, 12:44 PM)Au165 Wrote: The term is "check and release". The back isn't even in the progression it's only there as a last ditch dump off. Mahomes is flushed by Hubbard and his eyes drop because a second rusher is coming after he avoid Hubbard he loses sight of the HB because he is too busy running for his life. It's easy for fans to say this sitting on a computer with an eagle eye view but the field of vision with a helmet on is limited at field level. This idea you see everything is one of the biggest misconceptions by fans watching games.

That's a good point. Fans like to imagine the QB is just playing Madden and has an overhead view of the field. I saw it with that Broncos game too, where Russ threw into coverage instead of hitting KJ Hamler who was wide open. 

It's hard to pinpoint why your team lost, but too often we think about it in terms of singular plays where a player didn't do something perfectly. I imagine Mahomes, in this play, thought running for the first down was the better play than dumping it off becuase, as others have said, there were 2 Bengals within striking distance that could have stopped him before he got the first down.