What does it take to clinch a playoff spot?

[BIGDADDYFROMCINCINNATI]

A minimum of 10 wins.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(12-14-2022, 12:46 PM)wcu Wrote: This article says we need to win 2 of the remaining 4 to guarantee a playoff spot, but there are also scenarios where we could lose out and still get the 6 or 7 seed.  We hold tie breakers over the Jets, Dolphins, and Titans and hopefully soon the Patriots and Bills.  

https://www.cleveland.com/bengals/2022/12/how-did-sundays-win-over-the-browns-affect-the-bengals-playoff-chances.html

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/bengalswhatif.html

This site is pretty cool.  It lays out a bunch of scenarios with associated statistics.  It says if we win out, we have a 53% chance of being the 2 seed and 47% chance of being the 1.  If we lose out, it gives us a 62% chance of making the playoffs.

This is a very cool tool from the NY Times that lets you see how our playoff chances and seeding changes depending on the individual games we win/lose: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/upshot/cincinnati-bengals-nfl-playoff-picture.html#tb-cin-15=loss&ne-cin-16=loss&cin-buf-17=win&cin-bal-18=win

Doing a very cursory simulation, it looks like:

1. We win out and the Chiefs win out, we're the 2 seed.
2. We win out and the Chiefs lose one, we're the 1 seed.
3. We lose to the Bills, but win the rest of our games, we're the 3 seed.
4. We lose to the Ravens, but win the rest of our games, we're the 5 seed.
5. We lose to the Ravens and Bills, but win the rest of our games, we're the 5 seed.
6. We lose to the Ravens, Bills, and one other, we're the 7 seed.
7. We lose out and miss the playoffs.

Nice post WCU. The 7th scenario will not happen so I think we are in. The Chiefs could lose to the Seahawks for all we know.

Would be nice to just get the win this Sunday and for some things to go our way so we are officially in.

[Bengalholic]

Here's a cool site where you can predict who wins each game and see how the seedings play out - Playoffpredictors.com

[*Go Cards*]

10 wins minimum but would rather get to 12 and guarantee the spot. Or win the division.

The Pats play the Raiders, Dolphins, Bills, and Bengals and would take a miracle to make it in imo

Jets play the Lions, Jags, Seattle, Dolphins and probably get to 10 wins and could hit 11 if getting hot

Chargers play the Titans, Colts, Rams, and Bronco's and could run the table still and get to 11 wins but probably hit 10 for sure.

Best way into playoffs is to beat out the Ravens and let them fight for the wildcard spot. If not 11 wins probably but 12 wins solidifies it.

But having a magic # of 3 is not bad. As long as the three teams Pats, Jets, and Chargers all lose just 1 game a piece the Bengals will only have to win 2 of 4 games to ice it.