10-2 since the 0-2 start

[*PhilHos*]

(12-19-2022, 12:36 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: The Bengals completed another come from behind (that's what she said) victory against the desperate Buccaneers yesterday.  That makes them 10-2 since the 0-2 start of the season.  

The next three games:

Sat 12/24 @ NE

Mon 1/2 vs. Bills @ HOME

Sun 1/8 vs. Ratbirds @ HOME

You all probably know where I stand (win out, and win Super Bowl, based on the poop bag toss and Mom's help) but I am wondering where everyone thinks they will end up.  For comparison, here is the rest of the schedule for the Rats, Chiefs, and Bills:

Ratbirds:

Sat 12/24 vs. Atlanta @ HOME

Sun 1/1 vs. pissburgh @ HOME

Sun 1/8 @ Cincinnati

Chiefs:   If this were college, they wouldn't get in based on a pathetic strength of schedule

Sat 12/24 vs. Seattle @ HOME

Sun 1/1 vs. Denver @ HOME

Sun 1/8 @ Las Vegas Raiders

Buffalo:

Sat 12/24 @ Chicago

Mon 1/2 @ Cincinnati

Sun 1/8 vs. NE Patriots @ HOME

I could actually see Buffalo losing on the road to Chicago.  They are getting really good play from Fields, although their defense is suspect.  It is REALLY hard to imagine the Chefs (that was on purpose) losing to anyone except MAYBE the Raiders, who have to travel to pissburgh and play SF at home before the final week and are likely to be eliminated.  Which sucks, because the folks battling injuries will likely just shut it down for the season.  

Even if Cincy wins out, there is a really good chance that KC gets the one seed.  Their schedule is just such a joke.  Even if the Bengals win out, assuming the Chefs do as well, they will still have to play in Round 1, most likely against the Miami Dolphins (just took their schedule and gave them a win final week against the Jets).  Miami will be a tough out.  There is also a chance if the Rats keep falling that they could be the seven seed and come to Cincinnati, which I would like much more than Miami.

Here is the NFL Playoff machine, if you care to plug in different scenarios.  It is pretty fun.  

http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

First, let me say: FTS

That said, Pitt's defense is good, but their offense is BAD. However, every so often in his career, Trubisky has a really good game. Pitt's not necessarily the pushover they seem, especially against the Ravens.

Also, I could see both Seattle and Denver beating KC. Seattle has the offense to hang with the Chiefs and Denver's defense is good enough to slow the Chiefs down, though, obviously they would need SOMETHING from their offense to actually win. 

[*ochocincos*]

(12-21-2022, 10:58 AM)TecmoBengals Wrote: Regarding Carman, I also speculate it has to be an overall poor attitude or lack of professionalism to improve as a player that didn't set well with the coaches. Surely, his talent isn't that lacking for pro ball?

I'd imagine he's one and done with his contract as a member of the Cincinnati Bengals.

He's actually going to save some cap if he's let go once the new league year starts, so we could see him gone in March.

[*SHRacerX*]

(12-20-2022, 08:46 PM)Awful Llama Wrote: Yeah, the SB was in February, but that number still didn't seem right.  We lost to Cleveland in January, but Joe didn't start that game, so it doesn't count.  But he did start both the LAC and 49ers games in December, and we lost both of those.  Guess we'll just have to settle for him being perfect this December and January 


I would have given anything to hear "Viking Lady" as that first half unfolded Saturday  

That was pretty funny.  Didn't realize it was the Bengals game from last year until about halfway through.  Watching this, I am glad no one films me watching the Bengals games.  My son once said during that part of "A Christmas Story" when Ralphie says that his dad was an artist when it came to swearing:  "That's you during a Bengals Game, dad".  Truth.

And whenever Piggy's disgusting face would be on TV, I would yell VAGINA!  Because his face looked like one when he had a goatee, and it just kind of stuck. 

I think I have shared the time I was at a bar that was entirely steelers fans when it was a Thursday Night game against the Browns (and Brady Quinn...it was ages ago) and I was looking to antagonize someone in to a fight and started yelling VAGINA!  every time they showed his face.  Guys were getting pretty pissed at me and threatening me:  "better shut your mouth...you calling him a pu$$y?".  The Browns came back and won the game and I was giving it to everyone so badly.  The bartender even said "I'm not helping you if you get jumped".  Haha.  I was obnoxious as hell, and was in a horrible mood after an argument with (now ex) wife.  It sure cheered me up.  

[*Synric*]

(12-21-2022, 11:35 AM)ochocincos Wrote: He's actually going to save some cap if he's let go once the new league year starts, so we could see him gone in March.

I can see Carman surviving his contract as a backup. He's a cheap base salary with really no more bonuses to pay out.

[*SHRacerX*]

(12-20-2022, 09:30 PM)Speedy Thomas Wrote: I almost spit out my bourbon egg nog when I read that.  

As far as how I see the remaining three weeks:

Bengals -- We win against NE.  Joe Burrow is not going to lose to Mac Jones.  Buffalo is a toss-up; home field ad gives us the win.  Anything can happen in division games, but Rat Turds are coming to the Jungle so I give it to us.  3-0.

Rat Turds -- If Lamar doesn't play, they could easily lose to Atlanta.  Last 2 are division games (see above), but I will give them Pissburgh at home and they will lose to us.  1-2.

Chefs -- They have been careless with the football and I don't see the consistency nor the intensity from them that they have had.  Someone is going to get them, most likely the Raiders.  2-1.

Bills -- Beat Chicago and Pats, lose to us.  2-1.

Bottom line:  AFC #1 seed.  I love home playoff games.

Is it the Evan Williams Egg Nog?  That stuff is amazing.  Bought my dad a case last year so he could enjoy it year round.  Bought myself a case so we could enjoy it here during games.  

I am with you on almost everything, especially the Bengals finishing 3-0, but I just can't see KC losing to Seattle, Denver, or LV.  That last game MIGHT have been the best chance to beat them, but the Raiders will be eliminated and any player with a nagging injury will just sit it out and they will evaluate bottom of the roster guys.  Sucks, but will likely be the case.  

My big hope is for Seattle to win Saturday.  Bengals beat Pats and the game against the Bills on MNF would be for all the marbles (but still have to beat Rats).  That game at home would be INCREDIBLE!

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(12-21-2022, 10:51 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: Yeah, they can't let Jazz Bath get off to an early lead, though.  That takes them out of their run.  Squawks (that was funny) need to find some defense.  

Very true, cannot let Jazz Bath (that was funny too) get up on them early.

(12-21-2022, 10:54 AM)ochocincos Wrote: I think Carman's attitude/approach must have been so bad that they didn't even want to try starting him again this year.
I thought for sure he'd at least see some time maybe the first 2-3 games of the season while Volson continued to develop.
It's quite difficult your first game in the NFL going against Cameron Heyward.
I thought Carman would have been a bit better equipped to handle starting reps early on than Volson.

I can't see how Carman can be kept at this point, which is sad because I had hopes for him at LG.

All probably correct. Let him go somewhere else, I am just happy we have our future LG as that was the question with the OL.

(12-21-2022, 10:57 AM)ochocincos Wrote: Gotta wonder how much this winter storm will hit Foxboro/Boston over these next few days, as this storm is going to hit Cincy Thursday night and continually push east.
Forecast says Saturday will be high of 22 degrees, and it will have rained the previous two days.
Could be a lot more running than passing on Saturday, which favors NE over Cincy.

Well, I like the Gravedigger and Boot Hill. They have been great at shutting down the run lately. I don't know if it necessarily 
does favor the Pats over us as long as we use the Gap scheme and not the wide zone, we should be productive on the ground
if it is really nasty out.

(12-21-2022, 10:58 AM)TecmoBengals Wrote: Regarding Carman, I also speculate it has to be an overall poor attitude or lack of professionalism to improve as a player that didn't set well with the coaches. Surely, his talent isn't that lacking for pro ball?

I'd imagine he's one and done with his contract as a member of the Cincinnati Bengals.

I'd Imagine you are correct Tecmo.

(12-21-2022, 11:08 AM)Garrus Wrote: I think they might even cut him this coming offseason. I think they will even save money if they do so. 

Sucks being this wrong about a player, oh well, it happens.

[*ochocincos*]

(12-21-2022, 03:03 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Well, I like the Gravedigger and Boot Hill. They have been great at shutting down the run lately. I don't know if it necessarily 
does favor the Pats over us as long as we use the Gap scheme and not the wide zone, we should be productive on the ground
if it is really nasty out.

Stevenson is 9th among eligible RBs in the entire league for YPC at 5.0.
He's 12th in total rushing yards at 914.

The interesting thing is Mixon has the exact same number of rushing attempts as Stevenson (183), but Stevenson has 192 more yards.
Stevenson also has 381 receiving yards, so he's at 1295 yards from scrimmage, which is 9th among all RBs and 12th when including all positions.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(12-21-2022, 05:21 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Stevenson is 9th among eligible RBs in the entire league for YPC at 5.0.
He's 12th in total rushing yards at 914.

The interesting thing is Mixon has the exact same number of rushing attempts as Stevenson (183), but Stevenson has 192 more yards.
Stevenson also has 381 receiving yards, so he's at 1295 yards from scrimmage, which is 9th among all RBs and 12th when including all positions.

Rock on, Stevenson is good alright. Nick Chubb is better though, and we shut him down pretty much finally.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

(12-21-2022, 11:35 AM)ochocincos Wrote: He's actually going to save some cap if he's let go once the new league year starts, so we could see him gone in March.

Not really. 

Carman salary 2023:  $2,031,804 
Dead cap if cut in '23: $1,389,072 
Difference: $ 642,732

Only pro-rated guys we signed during the season have cap hits under $642k. Even a rookie FA min deal will be more than that. Though the cost may be only a couple $100k or less, we don't save any money by cutting him. 

You cannot just look at the salary/cap hit minus the dead money to conclude we save money by cutting someone.  You have to take into account the money it will cost to pay someone else on the roster in that spot. Once you do that for Carman, we are not saving money. 

Now, for 2024: 
Salary: $2,370,438 
Dead cap: $694,536 
Defference: $1,675,902

You could get a replacement for $1.67 mil with some to spare. 

Now, that does not mean we don't move on this year, especially if the work ethic is indeed poor.  After all, the bullet is probably only a couple hundred k.  Then again, maybe the work ethic is fine and Volson just beat him out. In which case, I think we give him at least another year. 

[Science Friction]

(12-21-2022, 12:39 AM)Soonerpeace Wrote: Winning the next 3 is going to be brutal. NE likely a win. But we need to get healthy. It’s adding up. The last 2 are tossups. The Ravens are going to make sure Lamar is healthy. For them the goal should be his health. They may need the last game to make the playoffs.

The Bills are not as tough as the world thinks. They can’t run the ball w/o using Allen. Their pass rush isn’t as good minus Von Miller. Their secondary fairly good (LMAO). But despite our streak and winning 10-12 we are banged up.

I’ll be happy going 2-1

The Ravens aren't coming to Cincy and leaving with a win.  If we win this Saturday against New England , I think we win out.

[Soonerpeace]

(12-21-2022, 10:11 PM)Science Friction Wrote: The Ravens aren't coming to Cincy and leaving with a win.  If we win this Saturday against New England , I think we win out.

Oh I think we can win out if our health on defense improves. But I expect the Ravens to lose to Atlanta with no Lamar. I expect them to lose to the Steelers. They will be 9-7. Lamar is competitive and 9-8 they may miss the playoffs. They will scratch and claw.

[*ochocincos*]

(12-21-2022, 09:30 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: Not really. 

Carman salary 2023:  $2,031,804 
Dead cap if cut in '23: $1,389,072 
Difference: $ 642,732

Only pro-rated guys we signed during the season have cap hits under $642k. Even a rookie FA min deal will be more than that. Though the cost may be only a couple $100k or less, we don't save any money by cutting him. 

You cannot just look at the salary/cap hit minus the dead money to conclude we save money by cutting someone.  You have to take into account the money it will cost to pay someone else on the roster in that spot. Once you do that for Carman, we are not saving money. 

Now, for 2024: 
Salary: $2,370,438 
Dead cap: $694,536 
Defference: $1,675,902

You could get a replacement for $1.67 mil with some to spare. 

Now, that does not mean we don't move on this year, especially if the work ethic is indeed poor.  After all, the bullet is probably only a couple hundred k.  Then again, maybe the work ethic is fine and Volson just beat him out. In which case, I think we give him at least another year. 

I didn't state it was a large amount, I just said there would be cap freed up, so you brought the numbers to prove my point