Battle for Seeding or Rest Battered Starters?

[samhain]

The Bengals find themselves in an interesting position after Jacksonville's win last night.

Fighting for a playoff berth is no longer something they have to do with 3 games remaining. They also have several key players working through injuries to stay on the field on a week to week basis on both sides of the football.

The number 1 seed would obviously come with the advantage of 2 weeks rest for players in need, but that's far from a sure thing, and the Bengals aren't quite in control of that. Even if they win out, they need KC to take an upset loss to get to a first round bye.

What would you rather have? A team fighting for a bye that may not be likely or a team going into the postseason with most of it's key injured players coming off of 2 or 3 weeks rest?

My approach would be a mix of both. Win in New England. It's not a given, but it's a very winnable game. Put that in in your back pocket, rest some guys vs Buffalo, then beat an even more banged up Baltimore team to secure at least one home playoff tilt. Baltimore at home is a game they should be able to win without all hands on deck.

It's a tough pill to swallow given the playoff atmosphere that will be the Buffalo game, but I'm not sure what they gain going to a 2 seed from a 3. At the very least, I want to rest Hendrickson, Hilton, and either Tee or Tyler if they aren't feeling a lot better than they are now. It also would get backups a large volume of snaps against likely playoff opponents which wouldn't be entirely bad.

If KC drops a game, that changes the entire approach, but that's difficult to bank on. The Monday night game is a big one, but a win vs the Bills in the playoffs, which is something they are very likely to need, is bigger.

I'm pretty torn on all of this, but it's something to keep an eye on.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

Can't just circle which games you're sure you'll win and then choose to lose the others. Doesn't work that way, the other team has a say in things.

Last two years they've lost to the Andy Dalton 6-11 Bears, Mitchell Trubisky 6-8 Steelers, Mike White 4-13 Jets, Baker Mayfield 8-9 Browns, and the Jacoby Brissett 6-8 Browns.

If you come into games assuming easy victories and come into other games not trying at all, that's how you go 0-3.

[BengalsBabe95]

I want to rest the guys. I don't care about the seeding much at this point considering like you said, Kansas and/or Buffalo could still end up with the 1st place.

Our guys have shown they can win away or home, it doesn't matter but it's a lot more difficult to do with most of our key guys hurt or nursing injuries.

I'll give them a week off and come back refresh before that giant playoff push.

Love ya guys
xoxo

[CJD]

They have not locked up the division or the #2 seed yet. The #2 seed is guaranteed a home game in the divisonal round if they win in the wild card round, since the #1 seed will play the lowest of the advancing seeds, which cannot be the #2 seed.

Since the #2 seed is fully within our control to achieve (since we play the Bills and Ravens), I see no reason to rest starters until that seed is no longer within our control. Especially since the likely #3 seed in that scenario is the Buffalo Bills.

You mentioned that you believe there's little benefit to the #2 seed vs the #3 seed and I disagree. I have absolutely no interest in the Bengals traveling to Buffalo in the middle of January when they could easily be playing in several inches of snow or some other kind of adverse weather that Buffalo often gets this time of year. The #2 seed is still extremely important even though it no longer has a bye week.

And then, obviously, if KC loses 1 game, which they have almost done two weeks in a row now, we would be in control of the #1 seed.

We cannot lock up the division title before week 18 unless we win our next two games and Baltimore loses their next 2 games, which means we would have beaten the Bills which then means we'd be battling for the #2 seed. If we win our next 2 games, Buffalo could still get the #2 seed back if they beat New England in week 18, assuming they don't lose to the Bears this weekend.

So, basically, the only scenario where I see us resting our starters is in week 18 if the Ravens lose the next 2 games, the Bengals win their next two games, Buffalo loses their next 2 games and KC wins out. And we won't even know about that last item until, basically, kickoff week 18 if our game is a 4pm or 8pm game and KC's game is 1pm.

If we play in the same time slot as KC in week 18, I don't think there is any situation where we rest our starters at any point this season.

[Frank Booth]

Can’t really afford to rest anyone early if the Ravens are only 1 game back headed into week 18

[*jason*]

What Herm Edwards said...

[Frank Booth]

(12-23-2022, 03:30 PM)jason Wrote: What Herm Edwards said...

So you disagree with what cincy did last year week 18?

[*bfine32*]

I think we can be cautious. But let's be real. Our chances are dependent on one player.

[BengalsBabe95]

OR....

Win the game against the Patriots and if they lose the Bills game, then rest the entire staters against the Ravens in week 18.

[Frank Booth]

(12-23-2022, 03:35 PM)BengalsBabe95 Wrote: OR....

Win the game against the Patriots and if they lose the Bills game, then rest the entire staters against the Ravens in week 18.

If the Ravens are only 1 game behind, or even tied with cincy headed into week 18, they can’t rest their starters against Baltimore. Because that would be for the division

[samhain]

I didn't consider avoiding a playoff game in Buffalo. That might be worth it.

Best case scenario if KC wins out is to win the next two, have Baltimore drop one in Pittsburgh or ATL, then make a decision from there.

I'd just like to see guys like Tee and Trey get a chance to have an extra week to get as close to 100 percent as possible.

[Nepa]

(12-23-2022, 03:28 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: They have not locked up the division or the #2 seed yet. The #2 seed is guaranteed a home game in the divisonal round if they win in the wild card round, since the #1 seed will play the lowest of the advancing seeds, which cannot be the #2 seed.

Since the #2 seed is fully within our control to achieve (since we play the Bills and Ravens), I see no reason to rest starters until that seed is no longer within our control. Especially since the likely #3 seed in that scenario is the Buffalo Bills.

You mentioned that you believe there's little benefit to the #2 seed vs the #3 seed and I disagree. I have absolutely no interest in the Bengals traveling to Buffalo in the middle of January when they could easily be playing in several inches of snow or some other kind of adverse weather that Buffalo often gets this time of year. The #2 seed is still extremely important even though it no longer has a bye week.

And then, obviously, if KC loses 1 game, which they have almost done two weeks in a row now, we would be in control of the #1 seed.

We cannot lock up the division title before week 18 unless we win our next two games and Baltimore loses their next 2 games, which means we would have beaten the Bills which then means we'd be battling for the #2 seed. If we win our next 2 games, Buffalo could still get the #2 seed back if they beat New England in week 18, assuming they don't lose to the Bears this weekend.

So, basically, the only scenario where I see us resting our starters is in week 18 if the Ravens lose the next 2 games, the Bengals win their next two games, Buffalo loses their next 2 games and KC wins out. And we won't even know about that last item until, basically, kickoff week 18 if our game is a 4pm or 8pm game and KC's game is 1pm.

If we play in the same time slot as KC in week 18, I don't think there is any situation where we rest our starters at any point this season.

This. 

[sandwedge]

(12-23-2022, 03:23 PM)BengalsBabe95 Wrote: I want to rest the guys. I don't care about the seeding much at this point considering like you said, Kansas and/or Buffalo could still end up with the 1st place.

Our guys have shown they can win away or home, it doesn't matter but it's a lot more difficult to do with most of our key guys hurt or nursing injuries.

I'll give them a week off and come back refresh before that giant playoff push.

Love ya guys
xoxo

Welcome aboard! I honestly don't think we can rest players till the division is ours. We proved last season we can win anywhere in the playoffs.

[*bfine32*]

(12-23-2022, 03:37 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: If the Ravens are only 1 game behind, or even tied with cincy headed into week 18, they can’t rest their starters against Baltimore. Because that would be for the division

Depends. Winning the Division gets you some really cool hats but that's about it. If we get the 3 seed, we'd most likely face a 6 seed such as Chargers or Miami.

We get the 5 seed we'd most likely face the Titans with Malik Willis. 

[Frank Booth]

(12-23-2022, 03:42 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Depends. Winning the Division gets you some really cool hats but that's about it. If we get the 3 seed, we'd most likely face a 6 seed such as Chargers or Miami.

We get the 5 seed we'd most likely face the Titans with Malik Willis. 

Listen, logic says rest starters, and just make the playoffs to face either the jags or titans on the road. Those are 2 opponents who are much weaker than Miami or the chargers

But will the team and coaching staff use that logic? Burrow already said the division title is the goal.

[kevin]

You try to win the AFC North. For one thing, you beat out Cleveland, Pittsburgh and Baltimore and win the AFC NORTH CHAMP pennant. Also you get at least one home game in the Play-Offs.

I want the Bengals to be healthy going into play-offs, but it is too early to tank games and lose out, and go in as the lowest seed in the play-offs, forced to play the hardest team on the road for maybe another quick one and done. I can see resting players the last week sometimes, if possible. You do not start resting the 1st string with 3 games left. Much like resting them in preseason, they would get too rusty to be any good in play-offs. It probably will be Bengals have to play 1st string to beat Baltimore last week of season to win the AFC NORTH. The rest the Bengals got in preseason may be it, and the 1st string has to be ready to go the rest of season and play-offs now. It is crunch time.

I think the AFC Champion Bengals can do better than crawling into the play-offs with a 10- 7 record and 2-4 against the AFC North with Baltimore winning the Division. It is time to play like the Super Bowl team they were last year, and go back to the Super Bowl, and win this time. They won't do that losing to Patriots, Bills, Ravens to end season, and Bengals will lose a lot of respect they have gained since Super Bowl run.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

I am mot resting anyone who is healthy enough to play at a high level. We need to clinch the division. And a #2 seed would mean a 2nd home PO game if we win the first. Both well worth fighting for.

Having said that, I'd be oretty conservative with guys who have knocks and are beat up. If there is a danger of aggravating it, I might hold a guy out. Or maybe play him less snaps than usual. .

But go get em would be my general outlook.

[Roland]

The division championship is worth playing for. Home games are worth playing for. 2nd seed gets you home field at least until the AFC championship so it's worth playing for. 3rd vs 4th, not really.

I want a team that seizes opportunities instead of coasting in and hoping things go their way. That's how you put an end to the "fluke" talk.

[Frank Booth]

It’s funny to see people still act like it’s the Marvin Lewis era in here. Like, we NEED to win the division lol

I think this Burrow era has showed us that division titles mean nothing. It’s about getting to the super bowl.

A division title is a nice little trinket on the Christmas tree. But it’s not the giant star or angel all the way on top

[Murdock2420]

The debate on resting starters to prevent injury goes back and forth and I don't know if there is a right answer. I do know that personally a guy like Hendrickson who is playing with an injury shouldn't be out there at this point. Guys who are really banged up should be resting for the playoffs.