Battle for Seeding or Rest Battered Starters?

[*bfine32*]

Nobody in this thread wants the Bengals to not go undefeated the rest of the year. The question was more risk v. reward. For instance, Trey Hendrickson is planning to play with a broken wrist. I'm no doctor but I do know a fracture heals best through calcification and trauma to the fracture site could cancel any healing already started.

We shut him down for the rest of the season and the bone has had 5 weeks to heal (6 if the boys continue to roll.) These guys do not forget how to play football because they miss a couple of games. Ja'Marr came back from time out and hasn't missed a beat. Mixon returned and went for 98 yards at 6.9 YPC, Reader has been all-world since his return.

Is the risk of Try reinjuring his wrist, Hubbard/Hurst tweaking to calf worth hosting The Chargers as opposed to traveling to Tenn/Jax. The Tampa game should have showed us this is a New Dey and our fanbase travels well.

[samhain]

(12-24-2022, 10:13 AM)bfine32 Wrote: Nobody in this thread wants the Bengals to not go undefeated the rest of the year. The question was more risk v. reward. For instance, Trey Hendrickson is planning to play with a broken wrist. I'm no doctor but I do know a fracture heals best through calcification and trauma to the fracture site could cancel any healing already started.

We shut him down for the rest of the season and the bone has had 5 weeks to heal (6 if the boys continue to roll.) These guys do not forget how to play football because they miss a couple of games. Ja'Marr came back from time out and hasn't missed a beat. Mixon returned and went for 98 yards at 6.9 YPC, Reader has been all-world since his return.

Is the risk of Try reinjuring his wrist, Hubbard/Hurst tweaking to calf worth hosting The Chargers as opposed to traveling to Tenn/Jax. The Tampa game should have showed us this is a New Dey and our fanbase travels well.

That's precisely the question I was asking.

Without a bye, which is still not something they control, the walking wounded will be asked to play, potentially, 4 more games in 5 weeks.  That's if things go the way we want them to, obviously.  Maybe playing one game with a balky hamstring or broken wrist is no big deal, but we're talking about another near quarter season of football, and it's a quarter season that's likely to be even more physical and intense than the regular season.  

This is new-ish territory for the Bengals.  They were very fortunate with few injuries last year.  This year is closer to the norm in the NFL.  

When guys gut out injuries, the name Levi Jones always comes to mind for me.  He was one of the league's best left tackles in 2005.  By the last quarter of the year, he was  playing with knee issues and taking pain-killing injections to get himself on the field for the playoff run.  He was still very good while doing it, but after that he took a nose dive as a player.  It sticks with me because he wasn't even that old.  

I'm not saying the injuries we see now will result in those kinds of consequences, but playing hurt isn't always just a matter of pain tolerance.  It can have longer term consequences for players and to the team as a whole.  

Buying a couple of weeks for some guys has a short-term cost, but also a possible major benefit in the post season, and in the long term.  

[*SHRacerX*]

(12-23-2022, 03:14 PM)samhain Wrote: The Bengals find themselves in an interesting position after Jacksonville's win last night.  

Fighting for a playoff berth is no longer something they have to do with 3 games remaining.  They also have several key players working through injuries to stay on the field on a week to week basis on both sides of the football.  

The number 1 seed would obviously come with the advantage of 2 weeks rest for players in need, but that's far from a sure thing, and the Bengals aren't quite in control of that.  Even if they win out, they need KC to take an upset loss to get to a first round bye.  

What would you rather have?  A team fighting for a bye that may not be likely or a team going into the postseason with most of it's key injured players coming off of 2 or 3 weeks rest?

My approach would be a mix of both.  Win in New England.  It's not a given, but it's a very winnable game.  Put that in in your back pocket, rest some guys vs Buffalo, then beat an even more banged up Baltimore team to secure at least one home playoff tilt.  Baltimore at home is a game they should be able to win without all hands on deck.  

It's a tough pill to swallow given the playoff atmosphere that will be the Buffalo game, but I'm not sure what they gain going to a 2 seed from a 3.  At the very least, I want to rest Hendrickson, Hilton, and either Tee or Tyler if they aren't feeling a lot better than they are now.  It also would get backups a large volume of snaps against likely playoff opponents which wouldn't be entirely bad.

If KC drops a game, that changes the entire approach, but that's difficult to bank on.  The Monday night game is a big one, but a win vs the Bills in the playoffs, which is something they are very likely to need, is bigger.  

I'm pretty torn on all of this, but it's something to keep an eye on.

You go for the one seed.  That bye week and having KC and Buffalo likely end up playing each other the second round of the playoffs, and you get the lower remaining seed is the best path to the Super Bowl.

Now, if KC wins today and the Bengals lose, the Bengals have virtually no chance of the #1 seed.  At that point, you are just playing for a home playoff game.  But you can't "rest up" unless it is a guarantee that the Bengals can't improve their seeding in the final week of the season.

My dream is that Seattle pulls the upset (hey, they are better than the Texans and Broncos) today, the Bengals beat the Pats, and then next MNF will be for the #1 seed between Cincy and Buffalo.  THAT would be exciting as hell.  Plus, it might stop some of the whining about how the Bengals didn't have to play Buffalo last year.  

[*SHRacerX*]

(12-23-2022, 04:05 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: It’s funny to see people still act like it’s the Marvin Lewis era in here. Like, we NEED to win the division lol

I think this Burrow era has showed us that division titles mean nothing. It’s about getting to the super bowl.

A division title is a nice little trinket on the Christmas tree. But it’s not the giant star or angel all the way on top

No, but getting at least one playoff game at home (and maybe more if the unthinkable happens) is a big deal.  

[Frank Booth]

(12-24-2022, 12:04 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: No, but getting at least one playoff game at home (and maybe more if the unthinkable happens) is a big deal.  

1 home playoff game is not a big deal. I really don’t understand this type of thinking. Especially when bengals fans will take over Jacksonville or Tennessee. And those are far inferior squads to cincy

[KillerGoose]

(12-24-2022, 12:07 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: 1 home playoff game is not a big deal. I really don’t understand this type of thinking. Especially when bengals fans will take over Jacksonville or Tennessee. And those are far inferior squads to cincy

I would agree. If the choice is Jax/Tenn or the Chargers, give me the AFCS opponent. Doubly so with Tannehill done for the season now, assuming the Titans prevail.

[Clark W Griswold]

(12-24-2022, 12:00 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: You go for the one seed.  That bye week and having KC and Buffalo likely end up playing each other the second round of the playoffs, and you get the lower remaining seed is the best path to the Super Bowl.

Now, if KC wins today and the Bengals lose, the Bengals have virtually no chance of the #1 seed.  At that point, you are just playing for a home playoff game.  But you can't "rest up" unless it is a guarantee that the Bengals can't improve their seeding in the final week of the season.

My dream is that Seattle pulls the upset (hey, they are better than the Texans and Broncos) today, the Bengals beat the Pats, and then next MNF will be for the #1 seed between Cincy and Buffalo.  THAT would be exciting as hell.  Plus, it might stop some of the whining about how the Bengals didn't have to play Buffalo last year.  

Whining about not playing Buffalo last year - is this really a thing? They beat the number 1 and number 2 seeds on the road so whoever’s saying this is extra stupid.

[*SHRacerX*]

(12-23-2022, 04:18 PM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: It all depends what Bmore does and not even us.

If they lose this weekend and next Sunday, then we are not only guaranteed the division, but the 3 seed (if we win on Saturday).

If they win even one game, then we need to win at least one ourselves, otherwise we'll tie or be 1 game behind. I believe we have the tiebreakers, if we split with them.

I'm basically hoping for 2 more losses by them and we at least win this week. At that point, we are assured the division and it won't matter what we do against Buffalo or Bmore. I could see us resting the starters against Bmore, as a result.

BUT! If we beat Buffalo, then the 1 seed is in play and we'll need to play our starters, unless Zac decides that the 2 or 3 seed is sufficient.

A lot can absolutely still play out.

Dead on.  I responded already and said much of the same, but you bring up a good point about the Ratbirds.  They are turd soup.  A big bowl of it.  They are doing exactly what they did last year and that is collapse because of a variety of reasons.  It is funny how irrelevant they seem, even at 9-5.  They just scored 3 points against the Browns.  I would not be the least bit surprised if Des Ridder (now starting in ATL) gets his first win as a starter (+7.5 points for entertainment purposes).  He was driving the Falcons to win last week and his WR fumbled after a big first down near midfield.  20 more yards, they at least go to OT with a FG, or maybe win it all.  

The Rats host pissburgh the next week (and probably lose) and that would make a Week 18 win for the Bengals irrelevant, should Cincy win today in New England.  In that case, it is all about "help".  If Seattle can pull off the upset today in KC, then next MNFs game will be HUGE and would likely dictate the #1 seed between Cincy and Buffalo.  An odd possible scenario is that the Bengals win, KC AND Buffalo lose today, the Bengals would still need to beat Buffalo next monday as the tie breaker.  Amazingly, if that happened and Cincy won, the Bengals STILL would need to win the last week of the season against the Rats because they would be tied with KC and hold the tiebreaker. 

That's a lengthy way of saying the Bengals almost certainly will need to win all three games and get help from Seattle to get the #1 seed.  The #1 seed would be massive, but I would not think the season is over in any way if they don't achieve it.  But you can bet I will be f'n pissed about the missed extra point (and chip shot FG) week one.  Ugh.

Who Dey!  And....Go Seahawks!

[*SHRacerX*]

(12-24-2022, 12:07 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: 1 home playoff game is not a big deal. I really don’t understand this type of thinking. Especially when bengals fans will take over Jacksonville or Tennessee. And those are far inferior squads to cincy

I think of how well the Raiders played last year.  That game, at home, was the springboard that sent them on their run.  Probably the biggest win in 20 years.  So, yes, I think it is a big deal.  

[*SHRacerX*]

(12-24-2022, 12:12 PM)Clark W Griswold Wrote: Whining about not playing Buffalo last year - is this really a thing?  They beat the number 1 and number 2 seeds on the road so whoever’s saying this is extra stupid.

It is a real thing, both on social media  and places like ESPN.  There are several that think Buffalo would have beat the Rams in the Super Bowl and should have been the team to represent the AFC.  It's crap, but I hear it. 

It doesn't really matter.  I'm pretty much deaf to crap like that and don't pay attention.  

[Frank Booth]

(12-24-2022, 12:17 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: I think of how well the Raiders played last year.  That game, at home, was the springboard that sent them on their run.  Probably the biggest win in 20 years.  So, yes, I think it is a big deal.  

...... this superstition crap is unbelievably weird. Referencing how last year could have an effect on this year?

I’m arguing with people who have strange mindsets lol

[TheCincinnatiKid]

It's a mix of both, as it depends on who we're talking about. It might be sensible to give guys like Trey less snaps, but I would generally just keep the team gunning for this. We're the hottest team in the league and we've been the hottest team in the league while having quite bad luck with injuries. The team have still prevailed. When momentum is with you, you do as little to upset that as possible.

Of course, you have to be sensible. The difference between the seedings isn't as important as having these guys available in the first place, so gotta protect guys when necessary. But, the seedings are still quite important this year. There is a huge difference between #2 and #3 this year, probably a bigger difference than between #3 and #5. #1 is still in play, and while unlikely, it would be big if we could get it.

I think it's as simple as keeping the team doing what they're doing. Keep these guys in gear.

[Essex Johnson]

(12-24-2022, 12:07 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: 1 home playoff game is not a big deal. I really don’t understand this type of thinking. Especially when bengals fans will take over Jacksonville or Tennessee. And those are far inferior squads to cincy

Tell that to the raiders, read after our win last year, they had trouble adjusting to the Jungle..hmm

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(12-23-2022, 06:31 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: I don’t want to hear about being at home or winning the division. It doesn’t matter. This team has proven it does not matter. They have IT.

(12-24-2022, 12:21 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: ...... this superstition crap is unbelievably weird. Referencing how last year could have an effect on this year?

I’m arguing with people who have strange mindsets  lol

...

[*SHRacerX*]

(12-24-2022, 12:21 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: ...... this superstition crap is unbelievably weird. Referencing how last year could have an effect on this year?

I’m arguing with people who have strange mindsets  lol

I don't believe it is superstition when a team has gone through a scenario and moved through it to achieve great success that they have the confidence to know they can do it again.  

If it is having a strange mindset that I believe the home playoff game is a big deal, then so be it.

I seem to remember a VERY good Saints team that had to go on the road to beat a Seattle team that was something like a 9 point underdog and got boat raced.  

[*rfaulk34*]

(12-24-2022, 12:11 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: I would agree. If the choice is Jax/Tenn or the Chargers, give me the AFCS opponent. Doubly so with Tannehill done for the season now, assuming the Titans prevail.

Nah. Give me the Chargers. You eventually have to beat the best teams so go ahead and give me the tough games from the start. I'd love to send Herbert home 0-1 in the playoffs. 

If i'm going to *****-out and be worried about matchups or hope i get the easier team...why even bother?

[Roland]

(12-23-2022, 04:52 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: What does winning a division title mean if we have super bowl aspirations? We all know this team can get to the super bowl. Why does it really matter?

Plus, going to jax or tennesse is a lot easier than facing LA, baltimore, or Miami in cincy

Ask any team fanbase who got to a super bowl. Do they remember a division title  or wild card spot? Sure, but that’s secondary to winning the conference championship.

I think of the 2021 bengals as afc champs, not afc north champs

Winning the division title brings at least one home playoff game. It also helps build a winning culture around the team. You don't create a winning culture around a team with a "Super Bowl or bust" approach. Even with a great team, the odds of consistent success in that approach are just too long.

You have it backwards to suggest that last year was proof that home games don't matter. The Bengals were clearly a better team but the win against the Raiders still came down to the wire. That game could have turned on any number of close plays (early whistle, for example) and there's no question that you're those things are more likely to go your way at home. If that game were in LV the road may have ended right there.

Then there was the rest of that playoff. The Bengals had so many miraculous plays in that run that it's foolish to act like duplicating that run on the road in any given year is no big deal. Cos "you ain't scared," like that matters.

Last year the Bengals sat their starters because the division was clinched and the chances of securing a 1 or 2 seed were slim. That was the right play. It would be the right play under those circumstances this year, as well. But the chances this year that we'll have the division clinched and know that we're unlikely to improve to 1 or 2 seed before kickoff in week 18 seem slim. Maybe if the Ravens drop one or two and we have a late game on Sunday we'll have that opportunity.

[*rfaulk34*]

(12-24-2022, 12:16 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: Dead on.  I responded already and said much of the same, but you bring up a good point about the Ratbirds.  They are turd soup.  A big bowl of it.  They are doing exactly what they did last year and that is collapse because of a variety of reasons.  It is funny how irrelevant they seem, even at 9-5.  They just scored 3 points against the Browns.  I would not be the least bit surprised if Des Ridder (now starting in ATL) gets his first win as a starter (+7.5 points for entertainment purposes).  He was driving the Falcons to win last week and his WR fumbled after a big first down near midfield.  20 more yards, they at least go to OT with a FG, or maybe win it all.  

The Rats host pissburgh the next week (and probably lose) and that would make a Week 18 win for the Bengals irrelevant, should Cincy win today in New England.  In that case, it is all about "help".  If Seattle can pull off the upset today in KC, then next MNFs game will be HUGE and would likely dictate the #1 seed between Cincy and Buffalo.  An odd possible scenario is that the Bengals win, KC AND Buffalo lose today, the Bengals would still need to beat Buffalo next monday as the tie breaker.  Amazingly, if that happened and Cincy won, the Bengals STILL would need to win the last week of the season against the Rats because they would be tied with KC and hold the tiebreaker. 

That's a lengthy way of saying the Bengals almost certainly will need to win all three games and get help from Seattle to get the #1 seed.  The #1 seed would be massive, but I would not think the season is over in any way if they don't achieve it.  But you can bet I will be f'n pissed about the missed extra point (and chip shot FG) week one.  Ugh.

Who Dey!  And....Go Seahawks!

I wouldn't pin my hopes on Seattle as much as i would the Raiders in LV. They'd love nothing more than to beat KC...simply to beat KC. They don't like each other. Knocking them out of #1 would be icing on the cake.

[Frank Booth]

(12-24-2022, 12:25 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: Tell that to the raiders, read after our win last year, they had trouble adjusting to the Jungle..hmm

Dude... if the bengals don’t grab the 1 seed, they will eventually have to play a road game down the line.

Keep ignoring that an away game in jax or ten would be a honorary home game anyways due to those 2 teams having weak fan bases. Bengals fans will take over those stadiums. Without question.

You should all rather have your team rested up before the playoffs if both 1 and 2 seeds are out of the picture. This rah rah win the afc north build momentum crap is purely fandom nonsense. Zero logic behind it

[Frank Booth]

(12-24-2022, 12:27 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: I don't believe it is superstition when a team has gone through a scenario and moved through it to achieve great success that they have the confidence to know they can do it again.  

If it is having a strange mindset that I believe the home playoff game is a big deal, then so be it.

I seem to remember a VERY good Saints team that had to go on the road to beat a Seattle team that was something like a 9 point underdog and got boat raced.  

Referencing the 7-9 Seahawks.... that anomaly

The Seattle stadium where it’s a huge home field advantage compared to jax or tennesse....

Please stop and think