Why are the Cincinnati Bengals Underestimated?

[*psychdoctor*]

The Bengals are the defending AFC champions and AFCN divisional champions. They are a team that should be respected right?
As I go through social medial, videos, and talk shows, I noticed the Bengals are once again undervalued as super bowl contenders. As an example:

And then there were 8:

How likely each team is to win the Super Bowl pic.twitter.com/kkDXpkuKxx

— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) January 17, 2023

My Question is why?

When you go by the numbers, the Bengals as a team, do not lead in any category. They just plod along.
Offense:
Total Yards PG: 8th (KC 1st) (Bills 2nd)
Points: 7th (KC is 1st) (Bills 2nd)
Rushing attempts/yards, Bengals are near bottom
Offensive plays Bengals are about 17th, whereas eagles are 5th, meaning they run more plays which gives them better opportunity to score.

Defense
Sacks (Bengals are near bottom)
Turnover DIFF (Bengals 6th; Bills 15th; KC is 23rd)
TYPG allowed: Bengals 16th; Bills 6th, KC 11th
Points allowed Bengals 5th, Bills 2nd, KC 16th

Note that 49ers stats are 1st in just about every category on defense.

So statistically, the Bengals are well rounded but not eye popping.

With regard to the eye test, the Bengals do not usually dominate teams with exceptions of the Panthers. They almost lost to the Patriots and struggled against backup QB in Dallas and Ravens. They were blown out by a very bad team in the Browns on National broadcast.

Nonetheless, what the stats and the eye test do not capture is the fact that the Bengals have players who win plays at critical moments. Whether it be creating a fumble, INT, a sack at a critical moment in the game, stopping a score. The Bengals as a team have players that rise to the moment. They are opportunistic winners. It may look like the Bengals are lucky, but I think it speaks to the fortitude and character of the team. They may not flash, but they are a team to fear, especially in the playoffs because they are unflappable.

[Roland]

Because the odds are not set based on the actual chances of winning. The odds are set to ensure that the money is balanced in a way that minimizes risk and maximizes profit for the sportsbooks.

[Murdock2420]

The fact that 3 of the 5 starting offensive lineman are down is certainly a part of that ranking.

It doesn't say which team is the best, it says which team is most likely to win the Super Bowl and health plays a big role in that.

[QueenCity]

Bengals against the world.

[Soonerpeace]

The home team gets 2-3 points in betting. So this game on a neutral field is close to even. As far as Vegas they’ve been cold toward the Bengals for a long time. As others mentioned 3 OL missing is 3 missing. Sad to say but this OL was really coming together even in the run game. Cappa and Collins can run block.

[wanga]

They’ve been the Bengals for so long.

[*Go Cards*]

Understandable somewhat with the current status of the O-line.

Yet the O-line sucked last year too and the Bengals almost won the Lombardy anyhow.

[LSUfaninTN]

(01-18-2023, 08:10 PM)Roland Wrote: Because the odds are not set based on the actual chances of winning.  The odds are set to ensure that the money is balanced in a way that minimizes risk and maximizes profit for the sportsbooks.

That still proves the original point though. It means the odds setters think that's how people will bet. Hence, the odds setters and probably bettors (Vegas is rarely super off base but it changes every week obviously) won't mostly bet on them.

Burrow looked like crap last week. A lot of people think the Bills are going to steamroll this weekend. After this past one as much as I want the Bengals to take it all, if I were a betting man I would probably bet on Buffalo even though I think they're still overrated and this weekend will test them. 

[Gdale_Bengal]

Not a large market team

[Brownshoe]

#1 The Bengals have been bad for a while. Just think if the Browns did what we did. I wouldn't believe in them.
#2 The Chiefs have been a powerhouse the last 4 years, making it to the AFC championship game each of the last 4 years.
#3 The Bills also have been a contender for longer than we have been.

[*Go Cards*]

(01-18-2023, 10:44 PM)Brownshoe Wrote: #1 The Bengals have been bad for a while. Just think if the Browns did what we did. I wouldn't believe in them.
#2 The Chiefs have been a powerhouse the last 4 years, making it to the AFC championship game each of the last 4 years.
#3 The Bills also have been a contender for longer than we have been.

That Chief team that the Bengals have spanked 3 times in the last 12 months 

[Interceptor]

A lot of coaches put in Marv Lewis' position would have been fired long before. He stayed too long and, come playoff time, he didn't use what got him there.

[*michaelsean*]

(01-18-2023, 10:39 PM)Gdale_Bengal Wrote: Not a large market team

Neither are Buffalo and KC. Buffalo is smaller.

[Bengalbug]

(01-18-2023, 11:33 PM)michaelsean Wrote: Neither are Buffalo and KC. Buffalo is smaller.

Haven’t looked it up, but the four afc teams combined might be smaller than any one market on the NFC side.

[NATI BENGALS]

Those stats really tell the story.

Doesn't matter how it happens. We just find a way to win.

Like hometown hero Hubbard's hustle.

[Brownshoe]

(01-18-2023, 11:10 PM)Go Cards Wrote: That Chief team that the Bengals have spanked 3 times in the last 12 months 

Yup. It's all about perception though.

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

The betting world considered Baltimore inferior and Cincinnati should have destroyed them. The NFL world understands division matchups in the playoffs, aka 3rd time around.

The Ravens defense after the midway point were the #2 defense behind the 49ers. Everybody struggles against them.
Week 10 bye . . . trade for Roquan Smith
Week 11 13-3 Win over Carolina
Week 12 28-17 Loss to Jacksonville
Week 13 10-9 Win over Denver
Week 14 16-14 Win over Pittsburgh
Week 15 13-3 loss to Cleveland
Week 16 17-9 Win over Atlanta
Week 17 16-13 loss to Pittsburgh
Week 18 27-16 loss to Cincinnati

That's under 14.9 points per game average, just over 13 points a game if you throw out the Cincy game at the end of the season.

Now let's look at the Chiefs ending of the season since Week 11
Week 11 30-27 win over LA Chargers
Week 12 26-10 win over LA Rams
Week 13 27-24 Loss to Cincinnati
Week 14 34-28 Win over Denver
Week 15 30-24 Win over Houston in Overtime
Week 16 24-10 Win over Seattle
Week 12 27-24 Win over Denver
Week 18 31-13 Win over Las Vegas

That's 20.4 points a game given up by their defense. In the 5 games against the 4 weak teams that went 19 48-1, they gave up 99 points, averaging giving up 19.9. I don't see the Chiefs defense being able to shut down any of the teams left in the playoffs. Mahomes is going to have to be almost perfect.

[*bengalfan74*]

I hate to keep but we still haven't come out of the 3 decades of suckage with a pinch of mediocre thrown in when it comes to national opinion. Many still believe last season was a fluke and refuse to admit we're much better than before.

[Bilbo Saggins]

The Bills have lost three games this season.  One by two points and two by three points.  Two of those were against division rivals, the other one came in overtime against the Vikings.  The Bengals lost to the Steelers this year(yuck).  The Bills beat the Steelers 38 to 3 this year.  They are one of the best defenses against the run and in the red zone.  They've ripped off 8 wins in a row despite having a lackluster turnover differential.  The Bills have been nothing short of dominant this year in the regular season.  It is easy to see why many would think that the weight of evidence favors the Bills.  Then there's the Chiefs.  Mahomes has won a Super Bowl and just threw for the most regular season yards ever.  Taking all emotions out of the equation, it's not hard to see why people would bet on those teams over a Bengals team that's down 3 starting OL and its best boundary corner.  

[jeremydc]

Did you see our last outing ?