Isaac Curtis The Real #85 Should start the first response to this thread. He will start each thread of all group assessments for 2023 draft prospects. He will post numbers, caps, players very helpful information. After Isaac post his numbers, then and only then can any board member list there prospect and synopsis of a players strengths, weaknesses, and why you feel he would fit this Bengal team. I will roll out the player groups a little at a time. thanks.
-Paul Brown “When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less.”
I. 2022 Roster Status
Currently on 53 = 9. Carried 10 until Collins injury.
Currently on IR = 2.
Practice Squad = 3.
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Starters: J. Williams (LT), Volson (LG), Karras (OC), Cappa (RG), Collins (RT)
Reserves: Adeniji (OT), Scharping (G), T. Hill (OC), Carman (OT/G), Smith (OT)
PS/IR: Brown (C, IR), Prince (OT, PS), Cochran (OT, PS), Gilliam (G, PS)
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II. 2023 Roster Status
A. Signed = 10. Cap Hit; Dead Cap; FA Year/Type
1. J. Williams (LT, Starter); $12,604,000; $12,604,000; 2024 UFA
2. A. Cappa (RG, Starter); $8,691,180; $6,750,000; 2026 UFA
3. L. Collins (LT, Starter); $7,384,306; $3,333,334; 2025 UFA
4. T. Karras (C, Starter); $5,541,180; $2,000,000; 2025 UFA
5. C. Volson (LG, Starter); $1,034,221; $492,663; 2026 UFA
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6. H. Adeniji (OT3, Reserve); $1,062,971; $52,981; 2024 UFA
7. J. Carman (OT4/G4, Reserve); $2,031,804; $1,389,072; 2025 UFA
8. T. Hill (C2, Reserve); $988,088; $96,076; 2025 UFA
9. D. Smith (OT5, Reserve); $1,064,836; $249,672; 2025 UFA
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10. B. Brown (C3, IR); $756,666; $13,334; 2025 RFA
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B. Unsigned = 1 (+3 PS). 2022 Cap Hit; FA Type.
1. M. Scharping (G3, Reserve); $2,540,000, UFA.
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2. I. Prince (OT, PS); UFA
3. D. Cochran (OT, PS); UFA
4. N. Gilliam (G, PS); UFA
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With 9 of 10 rostered OL from 2022 under contract for 2024, including all 5 starters, OL does not appear to be a glaring need this off-season. Furthermore, 7 players, including 4 starters (all save Jonah Williams & Adeniji) are signed through at least 2025.
The only immediate hole to fill is finding a serviceable reserve guard. Scharping is a FA and was the highest paid reserve on the team this year at $2,540,000. However, there are several issues looming.
The first just the overall quality of the line. While an improved group from 2021, they are merely adequate. The only plus starter this year was Cappa. Maybe Karras? There isn't a Pro Bowler in the bunch, and certainly not an all-Pro. If there is a guy who can upgrade the starting unit, he'd have to be STRONGLY considered in the draft. FA is doubtful, as a upgrade to our current starters will be pricey. Which brings us to issue #2.
Impending cap crunch. Burrow and Chase are currently on rookie deals. Joe can sign an extension that could change his cap hit from $11.5 mil in 2023 to over $50 mil in 2025, when the extension will kick in. Chase is also gonna get paid, and his salary will likely balloon from $8.5 mil in 2023 to over $25 mil in 2026 when his extension kicks in. And while those extensions are 3-4 years down the road, and the cap will rise some, new deals for players this off-season (Bates, Bell, Pratt, Hurst, Apple, Perine, Sharping, Flowers) or next (Higgins, Reader, J. Williams, Boyd, Awuzie, L. Wilson, Mixon - team option) will eat all of cap space & overlap with those huge extensions.
Hard decisions will have to be made at every position group. Keeping guys who are performing well may be problematic (Bates, Pratt, Higgins, etc). Overpaying for mediocre performers will compound our looming cap crisis and likely impede our ability to sign guys we WANT to keep. Which brings us to OT specifically. And a more precise analysis of each position group (OT, G, C) and player.
IV. Offensive Tackle (5).
Williams makes $12.6 million next year and a new deal will likely be expensive. He just had the worst season of his career. And suffered significant injuries to BOTH legs (dislocated kneecap). And missed all of 2019 with a torn labrum. To be fair, valiantly playing through the dislocated kneecap may have played a part in his poor play this year. PFF (FWIW) had him at 70.1 in 2020, 77.1 last year, and 61.2 this while allowing the most sacks in the league.
Collins also had an off year. Particularly vs speed, though he did perform well as a run blocker. His 57.9 grade was his lowest since a 51.5 grade in 2016, the season he switched from G to OT and played less than 200 snaps. And a far cry from the iver 80 grade he got in his last two years in Dallas (2021 & 2019). Perhaps the back issues held him back, but that isn't necessarily a good thing either.
Given their high Dead Cap numbers: $12.6 mil for Jonah and $3.33 mil for Collins, both guys will be here next year with an opportunity to bounce back with better health next year. We have to decide on Jonah next year, Collins after 2024. Better, healthier, and/or cheaper options at OT would be welcome, but may be hard to come by. FA too pricey. We are unlikely to land a plug & play OT at 29th or later. We are likely looking at a bit of a project or a RT only prospect. But we do have a year to get someone ready. A replacement for either would not have to start from jump.
However, a replacement COULD already be here. I am mot gonna annoint Carman nor Adeniji as starter worthy after one good game, but wow! If both guys continue to perform well, we at least have to feel good about our 2nd string tackles. Barring a total meltdown in KC, I think both guys are safely on the roster next year. Waiving either won't save any money, and both can play some. Both look WAY better at OT than G.
Smith is another matter. He was a project when drafted. When we lost both tackles his name never came up as a possible replacement. Adeniji first. Carman (listed as a G) was preferred to replace Jonah. And Prince from the PS also was mentioned and got reps in practice. If we bring in another OT in the draft, I think Smith will likely be the one to go. Though we could bite hard & release Collins, or carry 11 OL. Either is doubtful in my view.
V. Guard (4).
Guard seems to be the inverse of tackle. The starters look fine, particularly Cappa. Who is signed thru 2025 and graded out as our best lineman this year. Volson overperformed my expectations and was acceptable. Hopefully, he levels up again next year. He is also very cheap and signed through 2025.
Scharping was our Guard #3 and is a FA. Carman was G4 and he is obviously better at OT. As is Adeniji. Karras has played G as a pro, as has Collins, but both are starters elsewhere. Even if Scharping is back, I'd expect a Guard in the draft. If not, maybe 2.
VI. Center (3).
Karras is not a world-beater but is slightly above average, a great locker room guy, and on a reasonable contract.
T. Hill has not got to play much, but has looked decent during play, but did have some penalty yips early on. Ben Brown was an undrafted FA,we picked up and had some camp buzz but tore his bicep & spent the year on IR. Neither guy is over $100k in dead cap.
VII. Draft.
Not a great draft class for OL by most estimations. Though I will leave that to those with more draft chops than me. My $0.02 is that finding someone who will be an immediate upgrade to our starters in Rd1 will either be difficult (for OT) or not a wise use of the pick (G, C).
I think there are 3 consensus plug & play tackles who are round 1 worthy (Skoronski, Johnson, Jones). All of whom are likely gone by the time we pick. The best OG in the draft plays Cappa's spot (RG), limited uprade even if he hits. No other Rd1 guards ir centers likely.
Depending on how things shake out in FA & the top of the draft, using our 1st on a developmental tackle is possible. But I think Day 2 makes more sense. For guard & center, I think there is decent day 2 or early day 3 value. But I will leave that to those who watch more college ball.
(01-25-2023, 07:09 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: And, here is some quickie/ham-fisted analysis.
III. Off- Season Outlook: Offensive Line.
With 9 of 10 rostered OL from 2022 under contract for 2024, including all 5 starters, OL does not appear to be a glaring need this off-season. Furthermore, 7 players, including 4 starters (all save Jonah Williams & Adeniji) are signed through at least 2025.
The only immediate hole to fill is finding a serviceable reserve guard. Scharping is a FA and was the highest paid reserve on the team this year at $2,540,000. However, there are several issues looming.
The first just the overall quality of the line. While an improved group from 2021, they are merely adequate. The only plus starter this year was Cappa. Maybe Karras? There isn't a Pro Bowler in the bunch, and certainly not an all-Pro. If there is a guy who can upgrade the starting unit, he'd have to be STRONGLY considered in the draft. FA is doubtful, as a upgrade to our current starters will be pricey. Which brings us to issue #2.
Impending cap crunch. Burrow and Chase are currently on rookie deals. Joe can sign an extension that could change his cap hit from $11.5 mil in 2023 to over $50 mil in 2025, when the extension will kick in. Chase is also gonna get paid, and his salary will likely balloon from $8.5 mil in 2023 to over $25 mil in 2026 when his extension kicks in. And while those extensions are 3-4 years down the road, and the cap will rise some, new deals for players this off-season (Bates, Bell, Pratt, Hurst, Apple, Perine, Sharping, Flowers) or next (Higgins, Reader, J. Williams, Boyd, Awuzie, L. Wilson, Mixon - team option) will eat all of cap space & overlap with those huge extensions.
Hard decisions will have to be made at every position group. Keeping guys who are performing well may be problematic (Bates, Pratt, Higgins, etc). Overpaying for mediocre performers will compound our looming cap crisis and likely impede our ability to sign guys we WANT to keep. Which brings us to OT specifically. And a more precise analysis of each position group (OT, G, C) and player.
IV. Offensive Tackle (5).
Williams makes $12.6 million next year and a new deal will likely be expensive. He just had the worst season of his career. And suffered significant injuries to BOTH legs (dislocated kneecap). And missed all of 2019 with a torn labrum. To be fair, valiantly playing through the dislocated kneecap may have played a part in his poor play this year. PFF (FWIW) had him at 70.1 in 2020, 77.1 last year, and 61.2 this while allowing the most sacks in the league.
Collins also had an off year. Particularly vs speed, though he did perform well as a run blocker. His 57.9 grade was his lowest since a 51.5 grade in 2016, the season he switched from G to OT and played less than 200 snaps. And a far cry from the iver 80 grade he got in his last two years in Dallas (2021 & 2019). Perhaps the back issues held him back, but that isn't necessarily a good thing either.
Given their high Dead Cap numbers: $12.6 mil for Jonah and $3.33 mil for Collins, both guys will be here next year with an opportunity to bounce back with better health next year. We have to decide on Jonah next year, Collins after 2024. Better, healthier, and/or cheaper options at OT would be welcome, but may be hard to come by. FA too pricey. We are unlikely to land a plug & play OT at 29th or later. We are likely looking at a bit of a project or a RT only prospect. But we do have a year to get someone ready. A replacement for either would not have to start from jump.
However, a replacement COULD already be here. I am mot gonna annoint Carman nor Adeniji as starter worthy after one good game, but wow! If both guys continue to perform well, we at least have to feel good about our 2nd string tackles. Barring a total meltdown in KC, I think both guys are safely on the roster next year. Waiving either won't save any money, and both can play some. Both look WAY better at OT than G.
Smith is another matter. He was a project when drafted. When we lost both tackles his name never came up as a possible replacement. Adeniji first. Carman (listed as a G) was preferred to replace Jonah. And Prince from the PS also was mentioned and got reps in practice. If we bring in another OT in the draft, I think Smith will likely be the one to go. Though we could bite hard & release Collins, or carry 11 OL. Either is doubtful in my view.
V. Guard (4).
Guard seems to be the inverse of tackle. The starters look fine, particularly Cappa. Who is signed thru 2025 and graded out as our best lineman this year. Volson overperformed my expectations and was acceptable. Hopefully, he levels up again next year. He is also very cheap and signed through 2025.
Scharping was our Guard #3 and is a FA. Carman was G4 and he is obviously better at OT. As is Adeniji. Karras has played G as a pro, as has Collins, but both are starters elsewhere. Even if Scharping is back, I'd expect a Guard in the draft. If not, maybe 2.
VI. Center (3).
Karras is not a world-beater but is slightly above average, a great locker room guy, and on a reasonable contract.
T. Hill has not got to play much, but has looked decent during play, but did have some penalty yips early on. Ben Brown was an undrafted FA,we picked up and had some camp buzz but tore his bicep & spent the year on IR. Neither guy is over $100k in dead cap.
VII. Draft.
Not a great draft class for OL by most estimations. Though I will leave that to those with more draft chops than me. My $0.02 is that finding someone who will be an immediate upgrade to our starters in Rd1 will either be difficult (for OT) or not a wise use of the pick (G, C).
I think there are 3 consensus plug & play tackles who are round 1 worthy (Skoronski, Johnson, Jones). All of whom are likely gone by the time we pick. The best OG in the draft plays Cappa's spot (RG), limited uprade even if he hits. No other Rd1 guards ir centers likely.
Depending on how things shake out in FA & the top of the draft, using our 1st on a developmental tackle is possible. But I think Day 2 makes more sense. For guard & center, I think there is decent day 2 or early day 3 value. But I will leave that to those who watch more college ball.
Love the breakdown but disagree on two assessments. Wright has dominated (one of the few times I DO wish FT was here for his assessment as the community UT fan) both LT and RT. Most recently with RT. I'm not saying he'd outright play better than LC but with the injury issue, I'd actually feel confident in the play with Wright.
Harrison is a LT/RT versatile guy but I don't appreciate his lack of power (something even he knows is lacking). Especially since he would have to be a round 1 player.
D. Jones is a project for RT like you said but the size is tantalizing.
Bergeron from Syracuse could be a LT project but you would have to take him in 2 now and I don't like that. I would be okay in 3 but at this point it might not be a pressing need with Carman.
Steen from Bama could be a late rounder you stash and develop potentially.
Bergeron from Syracuse could be a LT project but you would have to take him in 2 now and I don't like that. I would be okay in 3 but at this point it might not be a pressing need with Carman.
Bergeron has very good size at near 330. Can be a very physical run blocker, a brute, and will be interesting to follow at the Senior Bowl as well as the combine in how he performs and tests. While he is listed as a tackle, imo he could elevate himself to challenge as an even earlier guard pick.
(01-26-2023, 05:34 AM)Goalpost Wrote: Bergeron has very good size at near 330. Can be a very physical run blocker, a brute, and will be interesting to follow at the Senior Bowl as well as the combine in how he performs and tests. While he is listed as a tackle, imo he could elevate himself to challenge as an even earlier guard pick.
I watched his tape against Murphy (top 5-10 pick from Clemson) and came away impressed. I just am not sure a project at LT is something I'd feel comfortable with at 63.
(01-26-2023, 05:34 AM)Goalpost Wrote: Bergeron has very good size at near 330. Can be a very physical run blocker, a brute, and will be interesting to follow at the Senior Bowl as well as the combine in how he performs and tests. While he is listed as a tackle, imo he could elevate himself to challenge as an even earlier guard pick.
I'm reserving judgment on Bergeron until I see him in the Senior Bowl. I have not specifically watched him yet but I did get a great sense of the Syracuse offense watching Sean Tucker (no thanks on Tucker BTW) but they are a very very...very run heavy team so I want to get a better feel for his pass sets.
(01-26-2023, 03:53 AM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: I didn't get to watch much CFB this year. Maybe a games worth of OSU football live.
IDGAF draft this guy. Trade up and get him in the first.
He definitely needs some work. But Orlando Brown and Jordan Mailata are 2 of the 4 starting LTs playing on conference championship weekend.
Keep the midwest boy close to home.
Just like I said with Daniel Faalele last year does Dawand Jones have the reactive athleticism to play in the NFL? I don't know but we will find out next week st the Senior Bowl 1 on 1s.
Although I won't argue against the scheme fit anymore Dawand Jones in a wide zone no Dawand Jones in a gap yes.
Since I took shots at everyone else's linemen I'll throw one out we havent talked about yet lol.
Notre Dame's Center Jarrett Patterson is just a consistent 4 year starter with so much experience sound technique and just a all around good football player. Patterson's one downside is he just isnt "elite" at anything. He's sorta scheme specific where he plays say C/G ina zone scheme but only Center ina heavy gap.
He a safe pick on the offensive line. You're gonna hear that alot from me this draft season when talking about the offense line lol.
PS: Let's get a couple threads started for TE WR and Defensive Backs lol. I was low on the WRs at first but I'm coming around because I was specifically looking at replacements for Tee at first.
I think Like Wypler showed pretty well vs Georgia.
For me, Wright & Jones are Day 2 guys. As is, Wypler.
We'll see how FA plays out with Bell, Pratt, Hurst, Apple, Perine, Flowers, Scharping, and Taylor being the ones to watch. Assuming Bates is gone with Hill the replacement.
(01-26-2023, 10:31 AM)Synric Wrote: I'm reserving judgment on Bergeron until I see him in the Senior Bowl. I have not specifically watched him yet but I did get a great sense of the Syracuse offense watching Sean Tucker (no thanks on Tucker BTW) but they are a very very...very run heavy team so I want to get a better feel for his pass sets.
Like I mentioned, I liked the tape I saw from him against Clemson (Murphy) but we would be required to take him in 2 and if he's a project, I'm not sure I'd go that route with all the contracts coming up. Now if he makes it to 3 or we have extra picks, sure.
(01-26-2023, 11:01 AM)Synric Wrote: Since I took shots at everyone else's linemen I'll throw one out we havent talked about yet lol.
Notre Dame's Center Jarrett Patterson is just a consistent 4 year starter with so much experience sound technique and just a all around good football player. Patterson's one downside is he just isnt "elite" at anything. He's sorta scheme specific where he plays say C/G ina zone scheme but only Center ina heavy gap.
He a safe pick on the offensive line. You're gonna hear that alot from me this draft season when talking about the offense line lol.
PS: Let's get a couple threads started for TE WR and Defensive Backs lol. I was low on the WRs at first but I'm coming around because I was specifically looking at replacements for Tee at first.
Love Patterson. I’m also personally a fan of Vorhees from USC. I think our Starters are fairly set for next season so I think finding a mid round versatile lineman could be a smart move for us. Both of these guys can play multiple positions and would be nice to have in case of injury.
(01-25-2023, 07:06 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: II. 2023 Roster Status
A. Signed = 10. Cap Hit; Dead Cap; FA Year/Type
1. J. Williams (LT, Starter); $12,604,000; $12,604,000; 2024 UFA
2. A. Cappa (RG, Starter); $8,691,180; $6,750,000; 2026 UFA
3. L. Collins (LT, Starter); $7,384,306; $3,333,334; 2025 UFA
4. T. Karras (C, Starter); $5,541,180; $2,000,000; 2025 UFA
5. C. Volson (LG, Starter); $1,034,221; $492,663; 2026 UFA
Only thing I will say is if Jonah Williams can pass a physical before March 15th, he can be cut with zero dead cap. Until March 15th, Jonah's 5th year option is guaranteed for injury only. It's only once he's on the roster on the first day of the new league year that it becomes fully guaranteed.
(01-26-2023, 10:38 AM)Synric Wrote: Just like I said with Daniel Faalele last year does Dawand Jones have the reactive athleticism to play in the NFL? I don't know but we will find out next week st the Senior Bowl 1 on 1s.
Although I won't argue against the scheme fit anymore Dawand Jones in a wide zone no Dawand Jones in a gap yes.
I wanted Faalele last year too. He did get a start at LT for the Ravens this year too I believe. But Dawand looks like he moves much better than Faalele and he looks like he plays with a lot more attitude.
I just keep going to sleep with visions of TJ watt pancakes dancing in my head. And would really like to be giddy like a school girl watching him play for my team.
(01-26-2023, 09:30 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Only thing I will say is if Jonah Williams can pass a physical before March 15th, he can be cut with zero dead cap. Until March 15th, Jonah's 5th year option is guaranteed for injury only. It's only once he's on the roster on the first day of the new league year that it becomes fully guaranteed.
99% sure on this.
I don't see Williams getting the axe. He's been solid every year except this year, and he's fought through injury. At worst, he'll have to compete with Carman for the starting gig.
(01-27-2023, 01:51 PM)Whatever Wrote: I don't see Williams getting the axe. He's been solid every year except this year, and he's fought through injury. At worst, he'll have to compete with Carman for the starting gig.
Isn't he fighting through injury every year? He has had 3 knee injuries in the last 3 years. He has also given up 20 sacks over the last 2 years.
You don't pay a guy $12.6m if you're even considering putting him into a starting job competition. If he loses then you're either starting him anyway over a guy that beat him because you're paying him too much money to bench, or you're having a $12.6m player sitting on your bench. It's a lose-lose. As soon as you even consider putting him in a competition for his job, it's already telling you that you shouldn't pay him $12.6m.
Could be interesting (OT plan for next season) if Carman has another strong performance this Sunday! And if plays well, then that's great news for both the game against KC on Sunday and the Bengals going forward (another starter option for them to consider and one that's on a rookie contract for another 2 seasons!)
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