The 2023 off-season - what do you want to see?

[THE PISTONS]

Man...I love hot stove league talk...but I just can't bring myself to think about this yet.

[Luvnit2]

(01-31-2023, 12:22 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: My main wants:

1. Cut Mixon
Nothing against him, but we just arent a running team. Paying the third most money on the team (12 million) to a guy that barely touches the ball and isn't super effective when he does is asinine. Draft some speed out of the backfield or go pick up a FA for cheap.

2. Find a punter.
Christman was freaking awful on Sunday and field position has been a problem for us all year. I am over it. Either draft one or bring in one in FA. It's a cheap upgrade that can pay huge dividends.

3. Bring these guys back.
Eli Apple, Pratt, Vonn Bell, Perine, Hurst, Flowers. None of these guys will break the bank and have been solid players for us.

4. Upgrade the OL
What happened with injuries in the playoffs was unlucky. The OL was OK this year, but nothing special. Go out and get that elite guy on the OL that we need. Joe goes from a good to best QB on the planet when he has time to throw and is comfortable in the pocket.

5. Find that elite game wrecker on defense
The Chiefs have one in Chris Jones. We need a guy like that on defense. Our defense is solid, but it's missing that one guy that can just wreck a game.

None of these things are huge asks. The Bengals have 44 million in cap space right now - third most in the league. Bates leaving and cutting Mixon would free up another 20 million at least.

Bold - Bates is not under contract, cutting Mixon n 2023 only saves 7.2 million in cap space, he has 5.5 million in dead cap if we cut or trade him.

I agree with #3.

I would cut Boyd, I love him, but he is our 3rd best WR and is proven he is not a #1 or #2 if Chase or Higgins is hurt. Cutting Boyd adds 8.9 million in cap space (1.4 million dead cap).

Take the money and place towards locking up Higgins for next 5 years. Higgins is only a 4 million cap hit for 2023 and then a free agent. Extend Higgins, 5 years for 95 million with 60 million guaranteed. Give him a 50 million dollar bonus (spread out over 5 years or 10 million a year. 

Salary - 2023 = 1 million + 10 million bonus = 11 million cap hit
Salary - 2024 = 4 million + 10 million bonus = 14 million cap hit (Higgins has now been paid 35 of the 48 million guaranteed)
Salary - 2025 = 10 million + 10 million bonus = 16 million cap hit (Higgins has now been paid 65 million and reached the 60 million guarantee)
Salary - 2026 - 13 million + 10 million bonus = 23 million cap hit (if cut or traded, 20 million dead cap, but no salary guaranteed)
Salary - 2027 = 17 million + 10 million bonus = 27 million cap hit (if cut or traded, 10 million dead cap, but no salary guaranteed)

In 2023, he would add an addition 7 million of cap space (he is already scheduled for 4 million cap hit) so 11 -4 = 7 million additional
Cutting Boyd would pay for Higgins in 2023 and add 1.9 million in 2023 cap space.
In 2024, cut Mixon - A 2024 cut would add 10.3 million helping to pay for Higgins 14 million cap hit

The Bengals need to find a Boyd and Mixon replacement in 2023 and 2024. Hopefully, player development (Williams) or the draft

The misconception is some fans don't understand how a lot of these long term contracts are written. They key is the upfront bonus teams can pay and then defer the bonus money over the life of the contract. This is why we see cap hits a lot less in the early years and higher in the latter years. The player cares about the guarantee as they means the team cares about the cash outlay and the cap hit (both have minimums to be met to stay in compliance). So it is not an easy to calculate a 5 year 100 million contract extension for 5 years by doing simple math of 100 million divided by 5 years = 20 million dollar cap hit each year.

A great resource is Spotrac. I like it as it has many years of date, shows team by team spend and cap hit (2 different things) and even projects the following year by division with an in depth analytics. For example, the Ravens have 28.8 million in cap space, but they do not have Jackson under contract. The problem the Ravens have is they can't simply extend him to lower their cap hit, they franchise him and they literally have to restructure contracts or cut someone as tag for QB's is 32.4 million in 2023 I believe.

Sorry, for the long post, I love discussing the cap.

[*ochocincos*]

(01-31-2023, 12:22 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: My main wants:

1. Cut Mixon
Nothing against him, but we just arent a running team. Paying the third most money on the team (12 million) to a guy that barely touches the ball and isn't super effective when he does is asinine. Draft some speed out of the backfield or go pick up a FA for cheap.

2. Find a punter.
Christman was freaking awful on Sunday and field position has been a problem for us all year. I am over it. Either draft one or bring in one in FA. It's a cheap upgrade that can pay huge dividends.

3. Bring these guys back.
Eli Apple, Pratt, Vonn Bell, Perine, Hurst, Flowers. None of these guys will break the bank and have been solid players for us.

4. Upgrade the OL
What happened with injuries in the playoffs was unlucky. The OL was OK this year, but nothing special. Go out and get that elite guy on the OL that we need. Joe goes from a good to best QB on the planet when he has time to throw and is comfortable in the pocket.

5. Find that elite game wrecker on defense
The Chiefs have one in Chris Jones. We need a guy like that on defense. Our defense is solid, but it's missing that one guy that can just wreck a game.

None of these things are huge asks. The Bengals have 44 million in cap space right now - third most in the league. Bates leaving and cutting Mixon would free up another 20 million at least.

I doubt the Bengals would look to move on from Chrisman so quickly, but if they chose to, they don't need to spend anything higher than a 6th rounder to find a new one. The best punter in the league this year in YPP, Ryan Stonehouse, was an UDFA rookie. Townsend, the Pro Bowl and All-Pro punter for the Chiefs, was also an UDFA.

I would be ok cutting Mixon. It's hard to justify paying a RB so much when they can't pass block, the running game isn't a focal point, and the OL isn't great at opening running lanes. Perine was just as effective as Mixon this year on the ground and catching passes, but he had added value of pass blocking. And he's way cheaper.

Bengals need another pass rusher and some OL depth something fierce. It was said all year that we would be right back to a sieve of an OL if the Bengals suffered a couple injuries to their starters. Low and behold, it happened.

Bengals either this year or next year will need to start figuring out a replacement plan for Higgins and/or Boyd. They won't be able to keep them long-term along with new contracts for Burrow and Chase. Boyd and/or Higgins will not be in stripes after this coming season.

[Frank Booth]

(01-31-2023, 01:20 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: Logan Wilson is another guy they need to figure out what they want to do with. I think Pratt is a better player makers than Wilson but Wilson is just solid. 

they have no back up plan for Wilson. They have one for Pratt. Davis-Gaither

[*ochocincos*]

FYI Mixon is the 3rd highest cap hit for 2023 currently.
He's the highest cap hit for all offensive players.

Is that high of a cap hit worth someone who was 25th in rushing yards per game among eligible players?
I would argue no.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-31-2023, 12:22 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: 3. Bring these guys back.
Eli Apple, Pratt, Vonn Bell, Perine, Hurst, Flowers. None of these guys will break the bank and have been solid players for us.


None of these things are huge asks. The Bengals have 44 million in cap space right now - third most in the league. Bates leaving and cutting Mixon would free up another 20 million at least.

Pratt and Hurst are both likely going to cost more than you think. 

Pratt already sounds like he's gone, he was upset earlier in the year he wasn't playing 3rd down because "too much money left on the table". 
Hurst I wouldn't be surprised if he gets something like a CJ Uzomah deal which the Bengals should not match, the same as they didn't the Uzomah deal. Either draft a TE, or sign the next Uzomah/Hurst that will come here on the cheap because he saw Burrow get 2 other guys who weren't anything special at his position paid.

- - - - -

That cap space is with Bates already gone. He's a FA. Him signing elsewhere doesn't add any extra cap space.

[*Synric*]

(01-31-2023, 01:51 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Pratt and Hurst are both likely going to cost more than you think. 

Pratt already sounds like he's gone, he was upset earlier in the year he wasn't playing 3rd down because "too much money left on the table". 
Hurst I wouldn't be surprised if he gets something like a CJ Uzomah deal which the Bengals should not match, the same as they didn't the Uzomah deal. Either draft a TE, or sign the next Uzomah/Hurst that will come here on the cheap because he saw Burrow get 2 other guys who weren't anything special at his position paid.

- - - - -

That cap space is with Bates already gone. He's a FA. Him signing elsewhere doesn't add any extra cap space.

I don't think Hurst will get the contract people expect. Tight Ends are the second least valued position group and the FA market isn't bad along with a solid looking draft class.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-31-2023, 01:39 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: Take the money and place towards locking up Higgins for next 5 years. Higgins is only a 4 million cap hit for 2023 and then a free agent. Extend Higgins, 5 years for 95 million with 60 million guaranteed. Give him a 50 million dollar bonus (spread out over 5 years or 10 million a year. 

That would make him just the 19th highest paid WR right now, and after this FA probably just the 22nd highest paid. He has the same agent as Jessie Bates and Deshaun Watson.

You can probably think more 4yr/$100m as a baseline with potentially a bit more once Justin Jefferson resets the top of the WR market when he becomes the highest paid WR in the league this offseason.

[Ell Prez]

(01-31-2023, 12:22 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: My main wants:

1. Cut Mixon
Nothing against him, but we just arent a running team. Paying the third most money on the team (12 million) to a guy that barely touches the ball and isn't super effective when he does is asinine. Draft some speed out of the backfield or go pick up a FA for cheap.

2. Find a punter.
Christman was freaking awful on Sunday and field position has been a problem for us all year. I am over it. Either draft one or bring in one in FA. It's a cheap upgrade that can pay huge dividends.

3. Bring these guys back.
Eli Apple, Pratt, Vonn Bell, Perine, Hurst, Flowers. None of these guys will break the bank and have been solid players for us.

4. Upgrade the OL
What happened with injuries in the playoffs was unlucky. The OL was OK this year, but nothing special. Go out and get that elite guy on the OL that we need. Joe goes from a good to best QB on the planet when he has time to throw and is comfortable in the pocket.

5. Find that elite game wrecker on defense
The Chiefs have one in Chris Jones. We need a guy like that on defense. Our defense is solid, but it's missing that one guy that can just wreck a game.

None of these things are huge asks. The Bengals have 44 million in cap space right now - third most in the league. Bates leaving and cutting Mixon would free up another 20 million at least.

All great in theory. But 4 and 5 are easier said than done. Rite pass rushers are gonna be 5 year/$100M. And who? I haven’t looked at free agent list but I doubt there’s some insane pass rusher that his team won’t resign first.

Getting an elite O line is also gonna be $20M/year. Yeah we have 40M in cap space but we haven’t paid Burrow, Chase, Higgins yet. Those 3 will be $90-$100M per year!

[WeezyBengal]

(01-31-2023, 01:39 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: Bold - Bates is not under contract, cutting Mixon n 2023 only saves 7.2 million in cap space, he has 5.5 million in dead cap if we cut or trade him.

I agree with #3.

I would cut Boyd, I love him, but he is our 3rd best WR and is proven he is not a #1 or #2 if Chase or Higgins is hurt. Cutting Boyd adds 8.9 million in cap space (1.4 million dead cap).

Take the money and place towards locking up Higgins for next 5 years. Higgins is only a 4 million cap hit for 2023 and then a free agent. Extend Higgins, 5 years for 95 million with 60 million guaranteed. Give him a 50 million dollar bonus (spread out over 5 years or 10 million a year. 

Salary - 2023 = 1 million + 10 million bonus = 11 million cap hit
Salary - 2024 = 4 million + 10 million bonus = 14 million cap hit (Higgins has now been paid 35 of the 48 million guaranteed)
Salary - 2025 = 10 million + 10 million bonus = 16 million cap hit (Higgins has now been paid 65 million and reached the 60 million guarantee)
Salary - 2026 - 13 million + 10 million bonus = 23 million cap hit (if cut or traded, 20 million dead cap, but no salary guaranteed)
Salary - 2027 = 17 million + 10 million bonus = 27 million cap hit (if cut or traded, 10 million dead cap, but no salary guaranteed)

In 2023, he would add an addition 7 million of cap space (he is already scheduled for 4 million cap hit) so 11 -4 = 7 million additional
Cutting Boyd would pay for Higgins in 2023 and add 1.9 million in 2023 cap space.
In 2024, cut Mixon - A 2024 cut would add 10.3 million helping to pay for Higgins 14 million cap hit

The Bengals need to find a Boyd and Mixon replacement in 2023 and 2024. Hopefully, player development (Williams) or the draft

The misconception is some fans don't understand how a lot of these long term contracts are written. They key is the upfront bonus teams can pay and then defer the bonus money over the life of the contract. This is why we see cap hits a lot less in the early years and higher in the latter years. The player cares about the guarantee as they means the team cares about the cash outlay and the cap hit (both have minimums to be met to stay in compliance). So it is not an easy to calculate a 5 year 100 million contract extension for 5 years by doing simple math of 100 million divided by 5 years = 20 million dollar cap hit each year.

A great resource is Spotrac. I like it as it has many years of date, shows team by team spend and cap hit (2 different things) and even projects the following year by division with an in depth analytics. For example, the Ravens have 28.8 million in cap space, but they do not have Jackson under contract. The problem the Ravens have is they can't simply extend him to lower their cap hit, they franchise him and they literally have to restructure contracts or cut someone as tag for QB's is 32.4 million in 2023 I believe.

Sorry, for the long post, I love discussing the cap.

Bates is not under contract but that money comes off the books. You now have that 15 million you were currenlt paying him this year to spend elsewhere. 

I can't bring myself to pay Higgins. 1000 yard recievers are not hard to find and this team is going to give Chase the bag. I think we draft Tees replacement this year. 

Love Tee, but his production can be found elsewhere, especially when you have a guy like Chase at your 1. 

[*rfaulk34*]

(01-31-2023, 01:39 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I doubt the Bengals would look to move on from Chrisman 

I was a little confused by him posting that.

Chrisman was 13th in gross ydg and 11th in net. He put 46% of his kicks inside the 20 and only 2 touchbacks on 28 kicks. 

4 kicks for a 49 yd gross and a long of 54 in the CG, no touchbacks.

Post season he was 9 kicks for a 46.7 average, 0 touchbacks and 3 inside the 20. 

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-31-2023, 02:00 PM)Synric Wrote: I don't think Hurst will get the contract people expect. Tight Ends are the second least valued position group and the FA market isn't bad along with a solid looking draft class.

They don't get that top end money, but there's a lot of mediocre names making decent money.

The NE mistake duo of Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry are at $12.5m/yr.
CJ Uzomah, Logan Thomas, and Will Dissly are all at that $8m/yr mark.
Cameron Brate and Tyler Conklin are just a hair under the $7m/yr mark.

I think Hurst will fall right into that second group, and that $8m/yr will put him at around the 20th highest paid after this FA and draft.

[*Synric*]

(01-31-2023, 02:20 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: They don't get that top end money, but there's a lot of mediocre names making decent money.

The NE mistake duo of Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry are at $12.5m/yr.
CJ Uzomah, Logan Thomas, and Will Dissly are all at that $8m/yr mark.
Cameron Brate and Tyler Conklin are just a hair under the $7m/yr mark.

I think Hurst will fall right into that second group, and that $8m/yr will put him at around the 20th highest paid after this FA and draft.

I don't see it especially with him turning 30 this year. I'm think it will be a 2 year 9 or 10m (4.5 or 5m per year). Its his age and this years FA Market and Draft Class that will drive down his price. Last years TE Free Agency Class was horrible if i remember correctly wasn't CJ one of the top TEs?

[Housh]

That’s 2 years in a row we lost because a teams star made a play


We need an X factor on D. With the cap going up and is likely cutting Bates well have money. We also may want to think about trading for a disgruntled star. There has to be a team that wants a 1st round pick

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-31-2023, 02:23 PM)Synric Wrote: I don't see it especially with him turning 30 this year. I'm think it will be a 2 year 9 or 10m (4.5 or 5m per year).

You could be right and I could be overestimating what some desperate team will offer Hurst.

I just think about that when we see the cap jump up by $16.6m, agents and players also see the cap jump up by $16.6m. When the cap numbers go up, so do their contract demands. In 2020 $8m/yr made you the 8th highest paid TE. In 2022 with $8m/yr you were in a tie for the 17th highest paid TE.

[Joelist]

Remember we will be drafting 28th, so absent trades we are not positioned to get a real stud for either OL or EDGE.

[*ochocincos*]

(01-31-2023, 02:11 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: I was a little confused by him posting that.

Chrisman was 13th in gross ydg and 11th in net. He put 46% of his kicks inside the 20 and only 2 touchbacks on 28 kicks. 

4 kicks for a 49 yd gross and a long of 54 in the CG, no touchbacks.

Post season he was 9 kicks for a 46.7 average, 0 touchbacks and 3 inside the 20. 

People are focusing on 1-2 specific games because it potentially impacted the outcome.
However, I would argue that the bonehead penalty from Ossai moving the Chiefs 15 yards closer and actually putting them into FG range is what actually was the bigger factor.

In Chrisman's games this year:
Regular season - 47.8 YPP, 42.6 net YPP, and 13 (46.4%) of punts were inside the 20, only 2 touchbacks
Postseason - 46.7 YPP, 36.4 net YPP, and 3 (33%) of punts inside the 20, 0 touchbacks.

Meanwhile, Kevin Huber (who some people wanted to keep):
43.2 YPP (lower than Chrisman)
37.4 net YPP (lower than Chrisman)
1 touchback
9 inside 20 (29%) (lower than Chrisman)

So while they MAY find someone better, Chrisman is a good punter and an upgrade over Huber.

[*ochocincos*]

(01-31-2023, 02:46 PM)Joelist Wrote: Remember we will be drafting 28th, so absent trades we are not positioned to get a real stud for either OL or EDGE.

TJ Watt was drafted 30th overall is easily in the Top 5 pass rushers in the NFL.

It's possible to find a really, really good pass rusher late in the 1st round.

OL they don't need a starter, they need good depth guys, which can be found on Day 2.

[*Synric*]

(01-31-2023, 02:46 PM)Joelist Wrote: Remember we will be drafting 28th, so absent trades we are not positioned to get a real stud for either OL or EDGE.

Looking like a deep edge class. You have really talented guys that could fall like Lukas Van Ness and Bryan Bresee (IDL). I would run to the podium for either one at 28.


Even Late Second round you probably can get a guy like this...

Official Senior Bowl Measurements #TheDraftStartsInMOBILE™️ pic.twitter.com/iGZmw0JXi1

— Reese's Senior Bowl (@seniorbowl) January 31, 2023

[*ochocincos*]

(01-31-2023, 01:51 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Pratt and Hurst are both likely going to cost more than you think. 

Pratt already sounds like he's gone, he was upset earlier in the year he wasn't playing 3rd down because "too much money left on the table". 
Hurst I wouldn't be surprised if he gets something like a CJ Uzomah deal which the Bengals should not match, the same as they didn't the Uzomah deal. Either draft a TE, or sign the next Uzomah/Hurst that will come here on the cheap because he saw Burrow get 2 other guys who weren't anything special at his position paid.

- - - - -

That cap space is with Bates already gone. He's a FA. Him signing elsewhere doesn't add any extra cap space.

If Pratt is already gone, they'll have to figure out a replacement.
I'm not too confident in ADG or Bailey filling that role, personally.

Someone I used to be a huge fan of but he's fallen off some the past couple years is Cory Littleton.
He only just turned 29, so he should have another couple years in the tank.
He signed with CAR this past year on just a 1-year, $2.5 mill deal, so I think he'd be a cheap FA to sign that could add some quality play to the LBs if Pratt leaves.

I would also be game for a draft pick too, but know that practically every LB takes a year or two to develop, even if drafted early.