2023 DB Draft Prospects Group Assessment

[*psychdoctor*]

Isaac Curtis The Real #85 Should start the first response to this thread. He will start each thread of all group assessments for 2023 draft prospects. He will post numbers, caps, players very helpful information. After Isaac post his numbers, then and only then can any board member list there prospect and synopsis of a players strengths, weaknesses, and why you feel he would fit this Bengal team.

I think it would help to project round, player they would replace, strengths and weakness.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

Alright, here goes. First off, I thunk DB encompasses 2 very different position groups: cornerback & safety.  With one (CB) usually valued MUCH higher than the other.  Yes, you will get guys who can play both, Hill for us and Branch this year, but in terms of analysis, I think there are TWO categories here, not one. 

Second, like OL (which also contains multiple groups,,OT, OG, C), the DB grouping takes up a TON of roster space, as we also carry 10 DBs on our current roster. But the draft/contract situation at this group is very different than OL, which brings us to point #3.

OL was a worthy choice to go first, as it is, IMHO, the weakest group of starters in the roster. We can upgrade the current starters there. But aside from Sharping, everyone is signed. It is not as pressing. We have 5 of 22 starters not signed next year, 3 of those reside at DB (Bates, Bell, & Apple). Plus, Awuzie is coming off major surgery as CB1, and two possible reserve safeties we have signed (B. Wilson & Anderson) have not played all year due to injury. There is more immediate need/uncertainty at DB. 
So here we go: 

Position Group #2: Cornerback:

I. 2022 Roster Status:
Currently on 53 = 6 (7 counting Hill)
Currently on IR = 1 
Currently on PS = 1
---------------
Current starters: Apple, CTB, Hilton (slot)
Rostered reserves: Flowers, George, Davis (slot)
Rostered versatility: D. Hill (safety, slot corner)
Injured/PUP: Awuzie (CB1 when healthy)
Practice Squad: Tell III
------------

II. 2023 Roster Status:

A. Signed = 5.  Cap Hit;  Dead Cap; FA Year/Type

1.  C. Awuzie (CB1, Starter, IR); $7.938,232; $1,500,000; 2024 UFA
2.  M. Hilton (CB3, Slot Starter); $5,961,754; $2,000,000; 2025 UFA 
3.  C. Taylor-Britt (CB4/CB2, Starter); $1,352,892; $1,131,942; 2026 UFA
4.  A. George: $870,000; $0; 2024 ???
-------------
5.  D. Hill (S3/Slot2, Reserve); $2,651,594; $9,545,748; 2026 TO/'27 
--------------

B.  Unsigned = 3.  2022 Cap Hit; FA Type

1.  E. Apple (CB2/CB1, Starter); $3,750,000; UFA
2.  T. Flowers (CB5, Reserve); $1,838,240; UFA
3.  J. Davis (CB6/Slot#3,Reserve); $1,035, UFA
---------
4.  M. Tell III (CB, PS); UFA
--------------

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

Instead of doing an analysis post for CB & Safety, I will do the numbers for each spot first. Other than stating the obvious at safety, which is that it is the position goup with the most uncertainty. Both starters are FA's, as is Special Teams captain Michael Thomas. We assume D. Hill will start next year, but he got more snaps in the slot than at safety. And two reserves we do have under contract (B. Wilson & draft pick Tycen Anderson), spent the whole year on IR/PUP. Here we go:

Position Group #3: Safety

I. 2022 Roster Status
Currently on 53 = 4.
Currently on IR/PUP = 2.
Currently on PS = 1.
-----------------
Current Starters: Bell, Bates
Rostered Reserves: D. Hill, Thomas
IR/PUP: B. Wilson, Anderson
Practice Squad: Corker
-------------

II. 2023 Roster Status

A. Signed = 3. Cap Hit; Dead Cap; FA Year/Type

1. D. Hill (S3/Slot2, Reserve); $2,651,594; $9,545,748; 2026 TO/'27
2. B. Wilson (S5/KR, Reserve); $2,000,000; $0; 2024 UFA
3. T. Anderson (S6, Reserve); $946,521; $229,563; 2026 UFA
------------

B. Unsigned = 3. 2022 Cap Hit; FA Type

1. J. Bates (FS, Starter); $12,911,000 (Franchise Tag); UFA
2. V. Bell (SS, Starter): $7,488,235; UFA
3. M.Thomas (S4, Reserve): $1,120,000; UFA
------------
4. Y. Corker (S/DB, PS); UFA
----------------

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

OK, analysis time. With more of the emphasis on our needs, cap situation, positional values, options, and general draft stuff rather than individual prospects. I do not have the chops to analyze how much cover/man Mississippi State ran or how much cover 1/cover 2/box each safety prospect played. I will start with some general stuff that applies to this offseason, regardless of position group, and then move on to position specific and player specific analysis.

I. 2023 Bengals General FA/Cap Situation

# of Starters who are FA = 8.
Offense = 1. Hurst
Defense = 4. Bates, Bell, Pratt, Apple.
Special = 3. Adomitis (Restricted?), Taylor (PR), T. Williams (KR)

# of Key Reserves who are FAs = 4.
Offense = 3. Perine, Scharping, Wilcox (Restricted)
Defense = 1. Flowers.

With 41 guys signed, we have an estimated $182,145,784 in slaries and $619,060 in Dead Cap for 2023. For total commitments so far of $182,764,844. With a projected cap of $225 million and $2,497,443 in rollover cap from last year, we project to have $44,733,599 in cap space to fill out our roster. Re-sign our own guys. Sign new guys. Pay draft picks.

And that sounds like a lot of money, and it is. But remember, we always leave a cushion to sign other players to the 53 when guys get hurt during the season & go on IR. Usualy $6-$10 mil. Our FA's this year are either due significant raises (Pratt, Hurst), already making big money (Bates, Bell), or likely to be significantly above vet min level (Apple, Perine, Flowers, Scharping).


II. Looming Cap Issues

And of course the issue of the looming raises for Burrow & Chase. While they won't hit until 2025 for Burrow and 2026 for Chase, they are gonna represent a large increase over what they currently make & change our cap space going forward. Burrow could go from $11 mil to $50 mil, and Chase from $10 mil to $25-30 mil. Guys who sign deals this year (or next) will have their contracts overlap with these new deals. Yes, the cap will go up as well, it went up around $17 mil for 2023, but that still falls short of covering this. More so when other rookie scale guys are up. FWIW, here is the FA schedule for guys who could command significant salary.

2023: Pratt (rookie), Bates, Bell, Hurst, Apple.
2024: Higgins (rookie), L. Wilson (rookie), Reader, Mixon (Team Option), J. Williams, Boyd, Awuzie.
2025: Burrow (rookie), Hendrickson, Mixon, BJ Hill, Collins, Hilton, Karras
2026: Chase (rookie); Hubbard, Cappa

Also remember that as the cap goes up, the number it takes to retain good players also increases. And I am mindful that creative contracts can reduce the cap hit for Burrow & Chase & others. And for some, we may part ways befire the FA year if the salary is high, but the oerfromance & Dead Cap number is low.

It certainly behooves us to line up pissible replacements in rookie scale deals for some of our higher priced players who are not performing to contract, who we may not be able to pay again, or for rookie scale guys who may be too expensive to retain.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

OK, on to some draft/FA general stuff.

As fans, we find this Bengal squad in unfamiliar territory. Perennial contenders? A roster with competent to plus to elite players almost everywhere. Good depth in many places. A very good coaching staff & FO that has drafted well, recruited FA's well, and built a great culture through those draft picks and FA signings.

We are contenders. In terms of the draft, that means we will mostly be picking in the 20s,,often lated 20s or even 30+. It will be hard to find elite prospects/immediate upgrades at the most valued groups (QB, WR1, LT, EDGE, CB, DT) at those spots. Somewhat easier at the less valued positions (RB, WR2, slot WR, TE, RT, OG, OC, NT, ILB, slot corner, S). Furthermore, regardless of position, plug & play guys are less plentiful later on. Especially with a team where the established starters are all already pretty good or better.

Normally, the solution would be to fill the spots you are unlikely to fill in the draft via FA. Or spots where you need immediate help. I have read stuff where the FO did a good job of identifying strong/weak postion groups in the draft and concentrating on weak groups in FA. Smart.

But we are running out of cap space in the near future and keeping the good players we already have is gonna cost more than we can afford, starting this off-season (Bates). Drafting well, planning well, amd making smart, increasingly cost-effective FA signings are gonna be how we maintain & restock. Smart trades. Hard decisions on guys are coming, and high picks and $15-$20 mil FA contracts may be out of our reach soon.

Another change is that FA is before the draft this year, and while there will be certainly be some guys unsigned come draft day, gone are thecdays when you could see how thecdraftcshakes our & THEN make your FA calls. Circling back & signing the FA after the draft if you don't land a guy at that position may not be possible anymore unless the guy is a low value FA.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

OK, corner/safety stuff.

Cornerback.

Corner is really interesting. Chido, CTB, and Hilton are all signed for next year. If you think CTB is a starter next year, and an Apple upgrade, CB may not seem such a priority. Dax Hill can play some slot and he is also signed. As is the recently rostered from the PS Allan George.

But Chido did his knee. When he plays & how he looks when he does may be open questions. He is a FA in 2024. If he plays poorly or is out to start the year, we have an issue with Apple unsigned. Flowers is a niche/TE guy, not an every down boundary corner, and he is unsigned to boot. George has almost zero experience. And Hill cannot provide slot depth if he is starting at safety, which he needs to do unless Bates & Bell are both back. Backup slot Davis is a FA.

How the next couple games go may tell us a lot. I think we'd like to keep Apple & Flowers for the right price if they perform well. And both guys might hang around for a bit in FA. Davis definitely should.

But via FA, retention, or draft, we need both a backup boundary corner (who may have to start for a bit depending on Chido) and MIGHT need to be his long term replacement. A backup slot would also help (though a guy with boundary/slot versatility might work). And a Flowers/TE stopper guy if Flowers leaves in FA are also needed. Though the latter role could be filled by a safety. Which brings us to safety, but I am gonna watch that NFC titke game now.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

OK, safety. 


While CB has the starters signed for next year (Awuzie, CTB, Hilton)  and we would be looking at the draft for depth or a long term replacement for Chido (or short term if he is still injured & Apple gets away), safety has more holes. 


Bates and Bell are both FA's. The reserves are either signed (Hill, B. Wilson, Anderson) or should be easy to re-sign for cheap (Thomas) if we want to. 


The variables here are what happens in FA and how we feel about D. Hill. If Hill is viewed as ready to step in and start, then it seems pretty straightforward. Let Bates walk (he's the most expensive), let Hill take his place, and try to re-sign Bell. If he gets away, draft a replacement. 


But I am not sure Hill is a like for like replacement for Bates. Bates is a deep lying free safety, CF all the way. Hill is a slot corner/safety hybrid who can also play in the box. Which sounds a bit more like Bell. Tagging Bates again and putting Hill in Bell's spot seems unlikely, but it is not crazy. 

I know Lou does not want to oose BOTH starting safeties, but it wouldxsave us around $20 mil on the cap. We dradt in a spot where there are good S prospects. Branch is unlikely, but Johnson seemsxa great SS prospect late first. 

How FA shakes out will obviously impact things. And across positions. If Hurst/Pratt/Apple seem unwilling to return on reasonable deals, but Bell is......then rolling eith what we have at safety (and maybe tagging Bates again) & shifting draft focus elsewhere will be the play.  Whereas if Bell & Bates play hardball & Pratt/Hurst/Apple don't, then we are gonna need a safety starter in the draft. 

Hill and Anderson are both gonna be here, for certain. Though I am not sure where we view each guy, FS or SS? Both? 

My feeling is that Bell will be back, Bates will walk. Hill will start at FS. Anderson be a backup, likely mostly on ST. And that last spot will be between Thomas, Brandon Wilson, or a day 2-day 3 pick. Thomas is a vet and the ST captain. If Anderson can supplant him on ST, he is likely gone. UNLESS Anderson can backup both S spots. Wilson isxa versatile guy. Led the league in KR a few years back & played some corner in college. He is on the books for $2 mil and has a dead cap number of zero. 

[*Synric*]

Bump.


Over or Under on 15 corners going in the top 100 picks? It would really suck to miss out on this corner class.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

Yeah, I am worried we miss out. IF Chido is back & healthy we have a solid 3 to start. 4 if Apple is back. It is not a gaping hole/need. But thexdroth is shaky with Apple & Flowers both FAs.

I think at least 5 go ahead of us (Witherspoon, Porter, Gonzalez, Smith, & Ringo) and Branch as well (though I think he is more of a S).

Would not be opposed to Forbes, Phillips, or Banks at #29, though it is a bit of a reach.. They are all likely gone by #58.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

We have re-signed CB & backup slot corner Jalen Davis to a two year contract.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/bengals-re-sign-lb-joe-bachie-and-cb-jalen-davis/ar-AA18pMbd

CB Signed: Awuzie (inj), Hilton, CTB, Davis
CB FAs: Apple, Flowers

S signed: Anderson, B. Wilson
S FAs: Bates, Bell, Thomas

[OSUfan]

There are many CBs coming with a lot hype and fanfare but give me D.J. Turner II in round 2. This kid brings elite speed, elite technique, and elite football IQ to the position. He is going to be a good one for a long time barring injury.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(02-04-2023, 12:06 PM)Synric Wrote: Bump.


Over or Under on 15 corners going in the top 100 picks? It would really suck to miss out on this corner class.

Yes, need to add a Corner in the first 3 picks in this class. I am liking DJ Turner the most right now in the 2nd as OSUfan said.

Turner can do it all and would be fantastic depth even as a rookie.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

We re-signed S Michael Thomas to a 1 year deal.

https://bengalswire.usatoday.com/2023/03/13/bengals-resign-michael-thomas-free-agency/

4 safeties under contract: Hill, Anderson, Thomas, and Brandon Wilson.

If we can bring Bell back, I think we are set at safery.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

With Bates AND Bell gone, it sure looks like a safety is in play, barring a FA,signing.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

Well, we failed on bringing Bell back. Drat.

[NATI BENGALS]

Allan George

(03-09-2023, 03:13 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: We have re-signed CB & backup slot corner Jalen Davis to a two year contract.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/bengals-re-sign-lb-joe-bachie-and-cb-jalen-davis/ar-AA18pMbd

CB Signed: Awuzie (inj), Hilton, CTB, Davis
CB FAs: Apple, Flowers

S signed: Anderson, B. Wilson
S FAs: Bates, Bell, Thomas

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(03-13-2023, 07:36 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: With Bates AND Bell gone, it sure looks like a safety is in play, barring a FA,signing.

For sure, will be interesting. We will bring in a Vet Safety pretty damn sure and Dax will be a starter but still, it has become a need
depending on the vet we bring in and how young he is and how long of a contract we give him.

[OSUfan]

(03-14-2023, 03:00 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: For sure, will be interesting. We will bring in a Vet Safety pretty damn sure and Dax will be a starter but still, it has become a need
depending on the vet we bring in and how young he is and how long of a contract we give him.

It seems like being injured last season has many people forgetting about Tycen Anderson. His skill set should fit in to the role that Bell played perfectly while Hill will be the centerfielder that Bates was. Remember that Lou was very happen to get Anderson in the fold along with Hill . I certainly do not think he should be overlooked.

[OSUfan]

(03-09-2023, 03:13 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: We have re-signed CB & backup slot corner Jalen Davis to a two year contract.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/bengals-re-sign-lb-joe-bachie-and-cb-jalen-davis/ar-AA18pMbd

CB Signed: Awuzie (inj), Hilton, CTB, Davis
CB FAs: Apple, Flowers

S signed: Anderson, B. Wilson
S FAs: Bates, Bell, Thomas

Did you purposely leave Hill off the signed S list?

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(03-14-2023, 07:27 PM)OSUfan Wrote: It seems like being injured last season has many people forgetting about Tycen Anderson. His skill set should fit in to the role that Bell played perfectly while Hill will be the centerfielder that Bates was. Remember that Lou was very happy to get Anderson in the fold along with Hill . I certainly do not think he should be overlooked.

Yes, we even traded up for Tycen. Just watched some of his preseason film Goodberry was showing and he looked really good.

Big, fast and smart. I like this guy for the future big time, was impressed, I know it was preseason, but it was impressive nonetheless.

(03-14-2023, 07:28 PM)OSUfan Wrote: Did you purposely leave Hill off the signed S list?

Kind of a big deal as he is our starter lol