2023 WR Draft Prospects Group Assessment

[*psychdoctor*]

Isaac Curtis The Real #85 Should start the first response to this thread. He will start each thread of all group assessments for 2023 draft prospects. He will post numbers, caps, players very helpful information. After Isaac post his numbers, then and only then can any board member list there prospect and synopsis of a players strengths, weaknesses, and why you feel he would fit this Bengal team.

I think it would help to project round, player they would replace, strengths and weakness.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

Position Group #5: Wide Receivers

I. 2022 Roster Status
On 53 man Roster = 6.
On IR = 0.
On PS = 2.
----------
Current Starters: Chase, Higgins, Boyd (slot)
Rostered Reserves: Irwin, Morgan, Taylor (slot/PR)
Practice Squad: Lassiter, Johnson

II. 2023 Roster Status

A. Signed = 5. Cap Hit; Dead Cap; FA Year/Type
1. J. Chase (WR1, Starter): $8,405,357; $18,211,606; 2026 UFA
2. T. Higgins (WR2, Starter): $3,964,416; $969,416; 2024 UFA
3. T. Boyd (WR3/slot, Starter): $10,285,280; $1,400,000; 2024 UFA
4. T. Irwin (WR4, Reserve): $940,000; $0; 2024 RFA
5. S. Morgan (WR5, Reserve): $1,180,000; $50,000; 2024 UFA

B. Unsigned = 1. 2022 Cap Hit; FA Type.
1. T. Taylor (WR6/Slot; PR, Res/St): $1,035,000; UFA
------------
2. K. Lassiter (PS): UFA
3. T. Johnson (PS): UFA

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

I do not think I have much analysis in me today. Still salty.

The starters are awesome. We need better depth. Mirgan & Taylor are good special teamers, but add little as receivers. Irwin is a bit better. But we have no deep speed outside of Chase. Everyone but Chase is a FA after next year.

[WVUHomer]

(01-30-2023, 07:29 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: I do not think I have much analysis in me today. Still salty.

The starters are awesome. We need better depth. Mirgan & Taylor are good special teamers, but add little as receivers. Irwin is a bit better. But we have no deep speed outside of Chase. Everyone but Chase is a FA after next year.

I like Mims, Hutchinson (Thanks Synric), and to a lesser extent Mingo. I don't think the depth is there this year for us to go WR route.

[NATI BENGALS]

I haven't done a thorough review of all the WR prospects, but at first glance I'm glad we don't have a need to go WR early this year. I am not a fan of what I have seen so far. Which instantly got all thoughts of moving on from Boyd out of my head.

[WVUHomer]

(02-02-2023, 03:59 AM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: I haven't done a thorough review of all the WR prospects, but at first glance I'm glad we don't have a need to go WR early this year. I am not a fan of what I have seen so far. Which instantly got all thoughts of moving on from Boyd out of my head.

Eh, I feel we could still move on from Boyd. There are still some players who could give us production early.

Mims has speed.
Hutchinson has size.

Or we could go Gibbs early and use him primarily as a Slot in his first year.

[*psychdoctor*]

(02-02-2023, 07:26 AM)WVUHomer Wrote: Eh, I feel we could still move on from Boyd. There are still some players who could give us production early.

Mims has speed.
Hutchinson has size.

Or we could go Gibbs early and use him primarily as a Slot in his first year.

Here is an option to replace Boyd's production.  Draft a really good TE and play him from the slot.  Muskgrave would be great, but also Kincaid seems like he never drops a pass from what I read.  

[coachmcneil71]

(02-03-2023, 07:25 PM)psychdoctor Wrote: Here is an option to replace Boyd's production.  Draft a really good TE and play him from the slot.  Muskgrave would be great, but also Kincaid seems like he never drops a pass from what I read.  

It is an option and if we were to lose Tee, it would give JB another tall receiver type to high point the ball.

[kevin]

With talk on this site of Bengals maybe not putting up the money to keep Higgins and Boyd, that would indeed force drafting a WR with Bengals 1st Pick. I hope it doesn't come to that. Burrow needs more than Chase, and losing both Boyd and Higgins would make Bengals go from first place back to last place.

So if Bengals lose both Higgins and Boyd, then a WR with 1st pick is needed, but do not expect to get talent level of a Boyd or a Higgins.

I'm only going on posts on here. I have no idea of contracts or free agency. I was too busy watching Bengals winning games in Play-Offs to look ahead at contract situations in March. Just seeing threads of Higgins gone or Boyd gone, and losing both would kill this offense. The draft would then have to focus on getting Burrow more pass catchers. So WR Prospects would become the major need, or this offense goes back to being not very good.

[casear2727]

(02-06-2023, 11:05 AM)kevin Wrote: With talk on this site of Bengals maybe not putting up the money to keep Higgins and Boyd, that would indeed force drafting a WR with Bengals 1st Pick.  I hope it doesn't come to that.  Burrow needs more than Chase, and losing both Boyd and Higgins would make Bengals go from first place back to last place.  

So if Bengals lose both Higgins and Boyd,  then a WR with 1st pick is needed, but do not expect to get talent level of a Boyd or a Higgins.

I'm only going on posts on here.  I have no idea of contracts or free agency.  I was too busy watching Bengals winning games in Play-Offs to look ahead at contract situations in March.  Just seeing threads of Higgins gone or Boyd gone, and losing both would kill this offense.  The draft would then have to focus on getting Burrow more pass catchers.  So WR Prospects would become the major need, or this offense goes back to being not very good.

No one with any sense is suggesting that we trade away both Higgins and Boyd.

Also, the only 1st round outside WR is Johnston, who most likely will be gone by 28, the others are slots.  I do like Addison and Boutte but neither replace Tee, both are better athletes than Boyd.

[*psychdoctor*]

(02-06-2023, 05:13 PM)casear2727 Wrote: No one with any sense is suggesting that we trade away both Higgins and Boyd.

Also, the only 1st round outside WR is Johnston, who most likely will be gone by 28, the others are slots.  I do like Addison and Boutte but neither replace Tee, both are better athletes than Boyd.

Not sure how I feel about Johnston.  I do not really like any of the WR coming out this year.  I do like Musgrave and Kincaid which although TE could be used as big WR on boundary.  WTS, if the Bengals trade Higgins, they better get a hell of a hull and maybe go two TE this year in draft.  I think Bengals could find a slot easier than replacing Higgins, and I think Higgins and Chase are really close.  

[*rfaulk34*]

Round 3.

Dontayvion Wicks, Virginia. 

6-2, 212, 4.4 (40)

Thoughts?

[WVUHomer]

(02-17-2023, 02:36 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Round 3.

Dontayvion Wicks, Virginia. 

6-2, 212, 4.4 (40)

Thoughts?

If we're going WR that early, would rather Xavier Hutchinson WR ISU

[*Synric*]

(02-17-2023, 02:36 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Round 3.

Dontayvion Wicks, Virginia. 

6-2, 212, 4.4 (40)

Thoughts?

Wicks is one of those "could be special" prospects and there are very very few at WR this year compared to the last couple. He tore up 2021 and entered 2022 looking to climb into the first round but that new coaching staff killed the entire Virginia offense. They were all so very bad. Late 3rd would be a good spot for Wicks but he could go alot higher just because the WR talent in this class is meh.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

FWIW, I think moving on from Boyd this year is insane. He will be on the team. He is a productive player and there is no replacement in the squad. Extensions for Burrow & Higgins won't impact this year's cap.

However, we badly need to upgrade the depth at WR (or TE). We need another weapon. After Boyd got hurt, Irein couldn't get open. And Taylor & Morgan didn't even see the field. And that is with Wilcox and Asiasi as the reseve TEs. No threat there, either. Nor Sample.

I don't know how the draft will shake out, or FA, but our weakest areas/top priorities would be:

1. OL. Starter if there early. Depth later.
2. More weapons. TE. WR. Even a RB.
3. Defensive playmaker. CB or Edge.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

I really like Flowers from BC early and coukd take him if all the stud OT/DBs are off the board.

Charles Jones of Purdue as a Taylor upgrade. Or Parker Washington. Later on.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

Injecting boilerplate analysis of general cap/FA/roster situation.

I. 2023 Bengals General FA/Cap Situation

# of Starters who are FA = 8.
Offense = 1. Hurst
Defense = 4. Bates, Bell, Pratt, Apple.
Special = 3. Adomitis (Restricted?), Taylor (PR), T. Williams (KR)

# of Key Reserves who are FAs = 4.
Offense = 3. Perine, Scharping, Wilcox (Restricted)
Defense = 1. Flowers.

With 41 guys signed, we have an estimated $182,145,784 in slaries and $619,060 in Dead Cap for 2023. For total commitments so far of $182,764,844. With a projected cap of $225 million and $2,497,443 in rollover cap from last year, we project to have $44,733,599 in cap space to fill out our roster. Re-sign our own guys. Sign new guys. Pay draft picks.

And that sounds like a lot of money, and it is. But remember, we always leave a cushion to sign other players to the 53 when guys get hurt during the season & go on IR. Usualy $6-$10 mil. Our FA's this year are either due significant raises (Pratt, Hurst), already making big money (Bates, Bell), or likely to be significantly above vet min level (Apple, Perine, Flowers, Scharping).


II. Looming Cap Issues

And of course the issue of the looming raises for Burrow & Chase. While they won't hit until 2025 for Burrow and 2026 for Chase, they are gonna represent a large increase over what they currently make & change our cap space going forward. Burrow could go from $11 mil to $50 mil, and Chase from $10 mil to $25-30 mil. Guys who sign deals this year (or next) will have their contracts overlap with these new deals. Yes, the cap will go up as well, it went up around $17 mil for 2023, but that still falls short of covering this. More so when other rookie scale guys are up. FWIW, here is the FA schedule for guys who could command significant salary.

2023: Pratt (rookie), Bates, Bell, Hurst, Apple.
2024: Higgins (rookie), L. Wilson (rookie), Reader, Mixon (Team Option), J. Williams, Boyd, Awuzie.
2025: Burrow (rookie), Hendrickson, Mixon, BJ Hill, Collins, Hilton, Karras
2026: Chase (rookie); Hubbard, Cappa

Also remember that as the cap goes up, the number it takes to retain good players also increases. And I am mindful that creative contracts can reduce the cap hit for Burrow & Chase & others. And for some, we may part ways befire the FA year if the salary is high, but the oerfromance & Dead Cap number is low.

It certainly behooves us to line up possible replacements in rookie scale deals for some of our higher priced players who are not performing to contract, who we may not be able to pay again, or for rookie scale guys who may be too expensive to retain.

[*Synric*]

Bump.

Tyler Scott's RB background shows up when you watch him. Late Day 2 is a good spot for him at pick 92 if the Bengals are looking to push Tyler Boyd a little. Boyd could become a trade candidate mid season.

[NATI BENGALS]

(03-27-2023, 03:26 PM)Synric Wrote: Bump.

Tyler Scott's RB background shows up when you watch him. Late Day 2 is a good spot for him at pick 92 if the Bengals are looking to push Tyler Boyd a little. Boyd could become a trade candidate mid season.

I don't remember the exact quote. But Sauce was at the combine and on the tv broadcast. And said Scott was the hardest for him to cover. Might have been a teammate hyping a teammate. Might be me being a UC homer.  But I wouldn't be mad if we took Scott at 60. He gets wide open.

[pulses]

(03-30-2023, 04:27 AM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: I don't remember the exact quote. But Sauce was at the combine and on the tv broadcast. And said Scott was the hardest for him to cover. Might have been a teammate hyping a teammate. Might be me being a UC homer.  But I wouldn't be mad if we took Scott at 60. He gets wide open.

60 is way to early for Scott. But if they're gonna draft a WR they better draft one early on. Not impressed with a lot of these WR's later on.