The Fundamental Question going forward

[THE PISTONS]

When Burrow is making $50 mill a year, Chase and Tee $25-30 million each...it's going to be significantly harder to add free agents/retain guys. That's over $100 million in cap space tied up in 3 players. For perspective, the cap is around $225 million this year. Now it should go up a decent bit, but even if it's $260 million, can you tie up that much in 3 guys?

As far as production, I'd imagine all 3 of those guys are probably 85-90% to their statistical ceilings. So you'll be paying astronomically more for similar production.

Even $75-80 million in Burrow/Chase is challenging, but I think doable.

Does anyone see any way to make this work?

[NATI BENGALS]

I was going to make a thread. But I think they are already working on it.


So according to my rough math.
We got all these guys
1. Orlando Brown, LT, $10,398,000; 4 yrs/$64,092,000; $31.1 mil
2. Nick Scott, SS, $2,388,235; 3 yrs/$12 mil; $3 mil
3. Irv Smith Jr., TE, $1.75 mil (up to $2 mil); 1 year, Unknown
4. Sidney Jones, CB, $990,000, 1 year, $0
5. Cody Ford, OT/OG, $940,000, 1 year; $0
6. Tarell Basham, DE, Unknown, 1 year, Unknown
7. Germaine Pratt, LB, $5,403,921; 3 yrs/$20,250,000; $7 mil
8. Max Scharping, OG, $1,280,000, 1 year; $175k
9. Jalen Davis, CB, $1,205,000; 2 yrs/$2,430,000; $150k
10. Joe Bachie, LB, $1,160,000; 1 yr; $75k
11. Trayveon Williams, RB/KR, $1,092,500; 1 yr; $52,500
12. Trent Taylor, WR/PR, $1,092,500; 1 yr; $52,500
13. Michael Thomas, S, $940,000; 1 yr; $0
14. Cal Adomitis, LS, $870,000; 1 yr; $0

For LESS total money than it would have cost to keep these guys
1. Jessie Bates, FS, $9,500,000; 4 yrs/$64,020,000
2. Vonn Bell, SS, $3,110,000; 3 yrs/$22,500,000
3. Hayden Hurst, TE, $3,136,666; 3 yrs/$21,750,000
4. Samjae Perine, RB, $3,000,000; 2 yrs/$7,500,000

[*Synric*]

The per year average doesn't matter its how they structure the contracts. Also I expect to see them start committing higher draft capital to the defense line in the near future maybe even this year.

[THE PISTONS]

(04-02-2023, 10:02 AM)Synric Wrote: The per year average doesn't matter its how they structure the contracts. Also I expect to see them start committing higher draft capital to the defense line in the near future maybe even this year.

I agree to a point. You can only move the cap hit around so much on those huge contracts.

[THE PISTONS]

(04-02-2023, 09:49 AM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: I was going to make a thread. But I think they are already working on it.


So according to my rough math.
We got all these guys
1. Orlando Brown, LT, $10,398,000; 4 yrs/$64,092,000; $31.1 mil
2. Nick Scott, SS, $2,388,235; 3 yrs/$12 mil; $3 mil
3. Irv Smith Jr., TE, $1.75 mil (up to $2 mil); 1 year, Unknown
4. Sidney Jones, CB, $990,000, 1 year, $0
5. Cody Ford, OT/OG, $940,000, 1 year; $0
6. Tarell Basham, DE, Unknown, 1 year, Unknown
7. Germaine Pratt, LB, $5,403,921; 3 yrs/$20,250,000; $7 mil
8. Max Scharping, OG, $1,280,000, 1 year; $175k
9. Jalen Davis, CB, $1,205,000; 2 yrs/$2,430,000; $150k
10. Joe Bachie, LB, $1,160,000; 1 yr; $75k
11. Trayveon Williams, RB/KR, $1,092,500; 1 yr; $52,500
12. Trent Taylor, WR/PR, $1,092,500; 1 yr; $52,500
13. Michael Thomas, S, $940,000; 1 yr; $0
14. Cal Adomitis, LS, $870,000; 1 yr; $0

For LESS total money than it would have cost to keep these guys
1. Jessie Bates, FS, $9,500,000; 4 yrs/$64,020,000
2. Vonn Bell, SS, $3,110,000; 3 yrs/$22,500,000
3. Hayden Hurst, TE, $3,136,666; 3 yrs/$21,750,000
4. Samjae Perine, RB, $3,000,000; 2 yrs/$7,500,000

Yes. Outside of Brown and Pratt, the guys on that list are Tier 4 and below guys.

Bates was a Tier 1 or 2 guy. Bell, probably a Tier 3 guy. Same with Hurst and Perine.

Arguably, we improved at LT, but got weaker at several other spots. And this is without the 3 big contracts.

It will be interesting to see what they do with guys like Reader and Hendrickson when their contracts are up.

[Housh]

(04-02-2023, 12:11 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: Yes. Outside of Brown and Pratt, the guys on that list are Tier 4 and below guys.

Bates was a Tier 1 or 2 guy. Bell, probably a Tier 3 guy. Same with Hurst and Perine.

Arguably, we improved at LT, but got weaker at several other spots. And this is without the 3 big contracts.

It will be interesting to see what they do with guys like Reader and Hendrickson when their contracts are up.

I mean if the guys we were losing weren’t good no one would’ve given a crap that they left. Of course we got worse at most those positions.
The idea is to draft well and only be weak at those positions for 1 to 2 years until your young guy is up to speed

[CJD]

Only 1 way to find out. Sign them and see if it works.

[Rubekahn29]

(04-02-2023, 12:16 PM)Housh Wrote: I mean if the guys we were losing weren’t good no one would’ve given a crap that they left. Of course we got worse at most those positions.
The idea is to draft well and only be weak at those positions for 1 to 2 years until your young guy is up to speed

We got worse on defense, but if the Jonah goes to RT, we may have just improved even more on offense and I believe our depth is going to be better. With Joe and Chase making bank soon, it’s going to be on them to carry the team. Also, if we hit some studs in draft, it’ll even out in the end.

[SunsetBengal]

I think that it's going to take a run of a few consecutive drafts where most of the picks stick and develop, as well as what they started doing this free agency, finding low cost players entering their second contract that have specific skill sets to fill very specific roles within their scheme.

[*ochocincos*]

(04-02-2023, 09:38 AM)THE PISTONS Wrote: When Burrow is making $50 mill a year, Chase and Tee $25-30 million each...it's going to be significantly harder to add free agents/retain guys. That's over $100 million in cap space tied up in 3 players. For perspective, the cap is around $225 million this year. Now it should go up a decent bit, but even if it's $260 million, can you tie up that much in 3 guys?

As far as production, I'd imagine all 3 of those guys are probably 85-90% to their statistical ceilings. So you'll be paying astronomically more for similar production.

Even $75-80 million in Burrow/Chase is challenging, but I think doable.

Does anyone see any way to make this work?

Personally, I think they'll give Higgins up to a certain amount and be like "take it or leave it."
And given the success (or lack thereof) on their ability to draft and develop OL, I think it'd be a disservice to invest so much into two pass catchers and likely have to rely heavily on draft picks on the OL starting in a couple years.
I'd rather use the money for Higgins and put it toward two good OL, but that's just me.

[*Go Cards*]

Think it is a bad move keeping two WR's costing $50 to $60 million on top of Burrow's contract. Plus Wilson has to get his $ as well.

They can make it work, but any star we find going forward will not be able to be kept. Or great players like Reader, Awuzie, and Huber when their raises come about. Think it is a Rams move to win now and suffer later.

Not a fan of kicking money down the road personally.

We've seen how much better Burrow makes TE's and believe he can do it with WR's as well. Kind of like Mahomes did when losing Hill.

Yet love all players involved and Tee is an ACC guy, so if the FO can work magic that I don't see possible, then that would be awesome.

But also see Higgins agent as being a major obstacle and will try to bleed the Bengals out every last cent.

[DYT_Bengal]

Irv Smith could be hit or miss, tbh I wish we signed him to a two year contract with incentives but I don't know how many plays he will be able to run with his injury history. But his contract is so cheap, it would be nice to have a situational player for that money who can still make important plays.

Does anyone know how much more it would have been to sign Hurst or Bell? Safety, TE, RB - I think those positions can be consistently fixed in the draft now that we are picking later - it doesn't make sense to wrap real money into those positions but I am worried about depth (obviously). LB seems to be very difficult to draft - Pratt is a converted safety and has shown he can cover, I'm not sure Bell is as big of a loss as I previously thought but he did make some really important plays.

[THE PISTONS]

(04-02-2023, 01:05 PM)Rubekahn29 Wrote: We got worse on defense, but if the Jonah goes to RT, we may have just improved even more on offense and I believe our depth is going to be better. With Joe and Chase making bank soon, it’s going to be on them to carry the team. Also, if we hit some studs in draft, it’ll even out in the end.

What will 'carry the team' look like? I doubt Burrow and Chase are going to improve their current stats much. Chase could play a full season which helps his total yardage.

[THE PISTONS]

(04-02-2023, 01:43 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: I think that it's going to take a run of a few consecutive drafts where most of the picks stick and develop, as well as what they started doing this free agency, finding low cost players entering their second contract that have specific skill sets to fill very specific roles within their scheme.

Yes.

And I think they're going to have to start trading guys with a year or 2 on their contract for draft picks if they aren't in the long term plans.

One issue with the strategy they use is they do a lot of 1 year deals. So if the guy hits, they leave town for a bigger contract.

[THE PISTONS]

(04-02-2023, 02:28 PM)DYT_Bengal Wrote: Irv Smith could be hit or miss, tbh I wish we signed him to a two year contract with incentives but I don't know how many plays he will be able to run with his injury history. But his contract is so cheap, it would be nice to have a situational player for that money who can still make important plays.

Does anyone know how much more it would have been to sign Hurst or Bell? Safety, TE, RB - I think those positions can be consistently fixed in the draft now that we are picking later - it doesn't make sense to wrap real money into those positions but I am worried about depth (obviously). LB seems to be very difficult to draft - Pratt is a converted safety and has shown he can cover, I'm not sure Bell is as big of a loss as I previously thought but he did make some really important plays.

Bell and Hurst got pretty sizeable contracts compared to Smith and Scott.

[SunsetBengal]

(04-02-2023, 02:37 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: Yes.

And I think they're going to have to start trading guys with a year or 2 on their contract for draft picks if they aren't in the long term plans.

One issue with the strategy they use is they do a lot of 1 year deals. So if the guy hits, they leave town for a bigger contract.

To first bolded, I agree with you.  They should try to get something of value, weather draft collateral or perhaps even a player who might not be living up to expectations, but maybe our coaches notice specific traits that would fill a specific role.

To second, I get the feeling sense that the team is now suddenly much better at identifying useful talent.  They don't seem to mind the cheaper "rent a player" route, as it is paying off so far.  But to be fair, when Taylor and Co. took over, the cupboards were pretty bare as far as up and coming depth players were concerned.  Perhaps now, with better talent identification and selection on our side, maybe they can stock primarily via the draft and have to go to the free agency well less?

[Sled21]

(04-02-2023, 01:05 PM)Rubekahn29 Wrote: We got worse on defense, but if the Jonah goes to RT, we may have just improved even more on offense and I believe our depth is going to be better. With Joe and Chase making bank soon, it’s going to be on them to carry the team. Also, if we hit some studs in draft, it’ll even out in the end.

I'm not sure we can say that yet. Yes, we lost Bell and Bates, to experienced vets who knew the system. But we replaced them with younger but faster players. With the increased speed, and Hill is now in his 2nd year in the system, we may in fact have gotten better. Remember, Playoff Jessie was not around for most of the season anyway. He was playing timid most of the time to keep from getting injured last year, and the year before he admitted his head wasn't on straight because of his contract. We kept our linebackers intact and the same with our D line. We will be getting Awuzie back, and CTB was playing lights out at the end of his rookie year. 

[THE PISTONS]

(04-02-2023, 04:02 PM)Sled21 Wrote: I'm not sure we can say that yet. Yes, we lost Bell and Bates, to experienced vets who knew the system. But we replaced them with younger but faster players. With the increased speed, and Hill is now in his 2nd year in the system, we may in fact have gotten better. Remember, Playoff Jessie was not around for most of the season anyway. He was playing timid most of the time to keep from getting injured last year, and the year before he admitted his head wasn't on straight because of his contract. We kept our linebackers intact and the same with our D line. We will be getting Awuzie back, and CTB was playing lights out at the end of his rookie year. 

Scott isn't younger. Agree on the speed.

It is hard to evaluate Bates, at his best I don't think he moved the needle like a Minkah. He was average a lot too.

It's really hard to tell with what we have in Scott and Hill. On paper though, we lost a lot of starting experience. Between Hill and Scott, they have like 1 year of starting experience. I can't see how there isn't atleast some fall off in safety play.

[*Synric*]

(04-02-2023, 01:43 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: I think that it's going to take a run of a few consecutive drafts where most of the picks stick and develop, as well as what they started doing this free agency, finding low cost players entering their second contract that have specific skill sets to fill very specific roles within their scheme.

This really it doesnt matter who they resign because they will have to draft and develop around them no matter what. 

[sandwedge]

(04-02-2023, 09:38 AM)THE PISTONS Wrote: When Burrow is making $50 mill a year, Chase and Tee $25-30 million each...it's going to be significantly harder to add free agents/retain guys. That's over $100 million in cap space tied up in 3 players. For perspective, the cap is around $225 million this year. Now it should go up a decent bit, but even if it's $260 million, can you tie up that much in 3 guys?

As far as production, I'd imagine all 3 of those guys are probably 85-90% to their statistical ceilings. So you'll be paying astronomically more for similar production.

Even $75-80 million in Burrow/Chase is challenging, but I think doable.

Does anyone see any way to make this work?

I honestly don't believe Higgins' value is $25 million. While is a very good WR, there's been injuries and some drops.
Chase also didn't have the best season last season.