The Fundamental Question going forward

[THE PISTONS]

(04-02-2023, 04:41 PM)Synric Wrote: This really it doesnt matter who they resign because they will have to draft and develop around them no matter what. 

Yes.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

(04-02-2023, 09:38 AM)THE PISTONS Wrote: When Burrow is making $50 mill a year, Chase and Tee $25-30 million each...it's going to be significantly harder to add free agents/retain guys. That's over $100 million in cap space tied up in 3 players. For perspective, the cap is around $225 million this year. Now it should go up a decent bit, but even if it's $260 million, can you tie up that much in 3 guys?

As far as production, I'd imagine all 3 of those guys are probably 85-90% to their statistical ceilings. So you'll be paying astronomically more for similar production.

Even $75-80 million in Burrow/Chase is challenging, but I think doable.

Does anyone see any way to make this work?

Sure, decisions will have to be made. But a couple thing. 

1) It won't all happen at once. Burrow's deal will have around a $7.5 mil signing bonus that will count this year. His cap hit will be around $19 mil. The 5th year option is $29.5, + the signing bonus, now you are talking $37 mil in 2024. $2025, when the thing actually kicks in, it will jump to $45-$50, but the jump will actually be smaller than next year. Chase's extension won't be until 2026, signed in 2025. 

2) There is a limit. Higgins & Wilson (2024), Burrow (2025), and Chase (2026) will be the last of the gyys coming off rookie deals who get huge money extensions. The cap will continue to go up every year, significantly as the gambling $$$ rolls in. The big hit will be 2024, with Tee & Wilson's deals kicking in, and Burrow's 5th year option kicking in. 

3) 2024. Burrow's leap will be around $18 mil. Say Tee matches that. $36 mil..Plus whatever Wilson's is, say a jump of $7 mil. $43 million. A lot. Who could come off the books in 2024? Jonah ($12.6), Mixon ($10 mil net), Collins ($7 mil net). That's nearly $30 mil right there. Plus the cap will go up. Say $10 mil, that's $40. Reader ($15.5), Boyd ($10.3 mil), BJ Hill ($7.5 net), andAwuzie ($8 mil) are all big money guys we could move on from. That's another $40 mil right there. Now, I hope some of those guys will be back on reasonable deals. Some will be. But it is not like we din't have options to save $$. 

4) The draft. We are gonna have to draft productive, cheaper players to replace some of these guys. And be smart in FA. And, perhaps, cash out some guys in trade. 

5) Contending teams with star players do this all the time. It is not new, it is just new for us. 

[bengals67]

Love Tee but we can’t afford him and chase. They need to get a deal like titans got for brown.

We have to have some money to reaign our studs on d.

[TheCincinnatiKid]

(04-02-2023, 01:59 PM)Go Cards Wrote: We've seen how much better Burrow makes TE's and believe he can do it with WR's as well.  Kind of like Mahomes did when losing Hill.

This is the answer for me. I hate the idea of giving Tee to another team, but practically speaking that's probably what a team with a Franchise QB does. Put your money in the QB, and he should (in theory) answer a lot of your money issues at WR/TE by making it work with lesser talent. You then put that money behind the defence instead and you're in theory a team with a shot most years. Obviously a very simplistic take on matters, but at some point part of paying Burrow will be the expectation that he elevates no-name receivers.

I think the team is doing the right thing in trying to keep this core together for as long as possible however. No need to be too rash and get to dealing Tee this year or whatever. 

[NATI BENGALS]

(04-02-2023, 07:12 PM)bengals67 Wrote: Love Tee but we can’t afford him and chase. They need to get a deal like titans got for brown.

We have to have some money to reaign our studs on d.

I watched that 15 minute video of Tee on bengals.com last night and I’d say we need to keep him. He bailed us out in some big time situations with his toughness, catch radius, size, and ability to win contested catches.

Titans moved on from Brown and the team went to shit. The team he was traded to went to the super bowl. So I’m not too keen on that comparison.

[THE PISTONS]

(04-02-2023, 08:35 PM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: I watched that 15 minute video of Tee on bengals.com last night and I’d say we need to keep him. He bailed us out in some big time situations with his toughness, catch radius, size, and ability to win contested catches.

Titans moved on from Brown and the team went to shit. The team he was traded to went to the super bowl. So I’m not too keen on that comparison.

Valid points.

What if Tee costs us Reader and Hendrickson?

[*rfaulk34*]

(04-02-2023, 05:10 PM)sandwedge Wrote: I honestly don't believe Higgins' value is $25 million. While is a very good WR, there's been injuries and some drops.
Chase also didn't have the best season last season. 

Tee should be looking at around 18-20M. 

[NATI BENGALS]

(04-02-2023, 08:42 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: Valid points.

What if Tee costs us Reader and Hendrickson?

We’ll probably be hearing it’s a young man’s game. Because I doubt we hand out many 3rd contracts unless a guy is willing to take a team friendly deal.

[Nepa]

(04-02-2023, 05:10 PM)sandwedge Wrote: I honestly don't believe Higgins' value is $25 million. While is a very good WR, there's been injuries and some drops.
Chase also didn't have the best season last season. 

I agree with this. I don't see where Chase and Tee have somewhat equivalent contract values. Chase shattered Bengals records (setting franchise records for receiving yards in a season and in a game) and NFL rookie records (3 NFL records for rookies) in his inaugural year. He gets votes for all-pro and makes the lists of top players in the league. I love Tee and and on some teams he would be their number 1 receiver. But Chase would be the number 1 receiver on all or most all teams. There are only a few WRs near him in talent. There are many WRs on the level of Tee. 

[*Synric*]

(04-02-2023, 08:35 PM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: I watched that 15 minute video of Tee on bengals.com last night and I’d say we need to keep him. He bailed us out in some big time situations with his toughness, catch radius, size, and ability to win contested catches.

Titans moved on from Brown and the team went to shit. The team he was traded to went to the super bowl. So I’m not too keen on that comparison.

Tee has taken some big time hits in 3 years as a big body receiver. That hit to the head during the Jets(?) game was ugly and he jumped up more pissed than injured. 

[samhain]

You can't keep both receivers, IMO.

Perhaps they are unsure which they want, so they are trying not to push Tee out just yet. Idk.

The d-line has a lot of money tied up. The time to backfill is probably right now.

Everyone goes on about running backs and tight ends, but this is a pretty good draft for pass rushers. TE and RB are fairly minor roles on this team. DL and secondary are not, and they also demand massive price tags on the open market.

I'm not going to be upset if they ignore the offensive gaps and bolster the young defensive talent.

Spending high picks on TEs and RBs is reactive. Getting young defenders is proactive.

[ezekiel23]

(04-02-2023, 01:48 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Personally, I think they'll give Higgins up to a certain amount and be like "take it or leave it."
And given the success (or lack thereof) on their ability to draft and develop OL, I think it'd be a disservice to invest so much into two pass catchers and likely have to rely heavily on draft picks on the OL starting in a couple years.
I'd rather use the money for Higgins and put it toward two good OL, but that's just me.

I agree.Have to let Higgins go.I like Higgins a lot,but you have to be realistic here.We can draft a really good WR.Free money up to address the RT position.

[impactplaya]

(04-02-2023, 10:38 PM)ezekiel23 Wrote: I agree.Have to let Higgins go.I like Higgins a lot,but you have to be realistic here.We can draft a really good WR.Free money up to address the RT position.

There is no guarantee the Bengals can draft Tee Higgins replacement and expect the same production.
WR is one of the hardest positions to project.
Yeah you can let Tee walk or trade him but you 
Are gonna see the offense possibly not be as effective. The fact that 1/4 of the league is wanting 
To trade for him tells you the fact how damn good 
He is. 
Very simply a WR is more impactful to a offense
Than a RT. Defenses don't gameplan for a RT. 
How many RTs have the KC Chiefs shuffled in and out
Since Mahomes has been there? 

[*jason*]

(04-02-2023, 08:42 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: Valid points.

What if Tee costs us Reader and Hendrickson?

How did Dunlap and Atkins 3rd contracts go? We're getting Reader and Hendrickson's best years. Sign Tee Higgins, and start grooming cheaper replacements at other positions.

[Bengalstripes9]

I honestly don't think any of the big three players are to 85-90% of their potential.
Maybe I'm being a homer.

But Higgins the past two years didn't put up huge numbers in the first half of the year.
If he can put together a full season where he produces week to week like AJ did, he has a high ceiling.

Chase has the talent to be the best WR in the league in my opinion.
He hasn't put it all together yet.

Burrow has MVP potential.
With his weapons he should set records (provided he has enough protection).

I think they are doing a good job investing in the oline.
Lock up Higgins and Burrrow this offseason before they really take off.

It'll be hard to make it work.
But the cap will increase so lock them up early.

I'd hate to see the Bengals give up on a player they hit on in the draft--especially at a premier position.

I honestly think if they sort out the oline, we should be blowing teams out every week with the amount of talent we have at QB/WR.
That's our potential.
We've been playing a lot of tight games the past couple of years.

[Sled21]

Honestly if Tee hits the market I think KC snatches him up immediately and they continue to win the AFC. They really haven't replaced T. Hill, and they would love to take one of our weapons away from us. Keep Tee at all costs.

[Ell Prez]

(04-02-2023, 08:42 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: Valid points.

What if Tee costs us Reader and Hendrickson?

I can’t say for certain, as it matter when they resign everyone and how, but I don’t think it necessarily costs is reader and Hendrickson. I think it definitely cost us Bates and Bell. It might cost us Mixon. I’m not sure the Bengals will want to resign Reader anyways, that would be his 3rd contract and paying him in to his 30s.

But for that reason, I think D line is 100% on the table at #28.

[bengals67]

(04-02-2023, 08:35 PM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: I watched that 15 minute video of Tee on bengals.com last night and I’d say we need to keep him. He bailed us out in some big time situations with his toughness, catch radius, size, and ability to win contested catches.

Titans moved on from Brown and the team went to shit. The team he was traded to went to the super bowl. So I’m not too keen on that comparison.

Ok. Chiefs let Hill walk and won Super Bowl

[*ochocincos*]

(04-02-2023, 11:26 PM)impactplaya Wrote: There is no guarantee the Bengals can draft Tee Higgins replacement and expect the same production.
WR is one of the hardest positions to project.
Yeah you can let Tee walk or trade him but you 
Are gonna see the offense possibly not be as effective. The fact that 1/4 of the league is wanting 
To trade for him tells you the fact how damn good 
He is. 
Very simply a WR is more impactful to a offense
Than a RT. Defenses don't gameplan for a RT. 
How many RTs have the KC Chiefs shuffled in and out
Since Mahomes has been there? 

How'd the Chiefs do when they traded away Tyreek Hill?

They won the Super Bowl even though they didn't have a 1000+ yard WR.
Mahomes still threw for over 5000 yards, which was actually more than the year prior with Hill.
Kelce still dominated.
JJSS and MVS combined for 1600 yards between the two of them.
Their top 3 pass catchers put up nearly 3000 yards.

The Bengals may not get a WR quite the same caliber of Higgins, but I would say with pretty high confidence they can get a guy early in the draft that can be around 800-1000 yards. And they can find a third receiving option who can get them 600-800 yards very likely.

And I disagree that teams don't gameplan for the RT.
Did it not seem like the Chiefs in this past playoff game gameplanned to attack the weakest part of the OL, RG and RT?


Do you trust the Bengals to draft and develop an OL, or draft and develop a receiver?
So far, they seem to be much better with receivers than they do with OL.

[*Synric*]

(04-03-2023, 09:57 AM)ochocincos Wrote: How'd the Chiefs do when they traded away Tyreek Hill?

They won the Super Bowl even though they didn't have a 1000+ yard WR.
Mahomes still threw for over 5000 yards, which was actually more than the year prior with Hill.
Kelce still dominated.
JJSS and MVS combined for 1600 yards between the two of them.
Their top 3 pass catchers put up nearly 3000 yards.

The Bengals may not get a WR quite the same caliber of Higgins, but I would say with pretty high confidence they can get a guy early in the draft that can be around 800-1000 yards. And they can find a third receiving option who can get them 600-800 yards very likely.

And I disagree that teams don't gameplan for the RT.
Did it not seem like the Chiefs in this past playoff game gameplanned to attack the weakest part of the OL, RG and RT?


Do you trust the Bengals to draft and develop an OL, or draft and develop a receiver?
So far, they seem to be much better with receivers than they do with OL.

The Chiefs are an anomaly because of Travis Kelce 110 catches 1330+ yards. Not only is he the best middle of the field receiver in the NFL he's also one of the top receivers with the ball in his hands. He led the NFL in YAC (TE or WR) and was 3rd place in Yards after Contract while receiving behind Christian McCaffrey and Leonard Fournette.

The Chiefs are rhe best YAC team in the NFL because like the Bengals they have seen a ton more cover 2 the last couple of years and Andy Reid has adapted. That's why I've been beating the drum for YAC guys in this draft class.