The Fundamental Question going forward

[THE PISTONS]

(04-03-2023, 02:29 PM)Mike M (the other one) Wrote: Of course there will be and no one has said otherwise, but we are hoping to minimize that fall off with faster guys, once those guys start getting more familiar/exp then the Safety combo could match or eclipse the previous one. 

There will be 2 starting safeties with 1 combined year of starting experience between them.

[*rfaulk34*]

(04-03-2023, 02:44 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: There will be 2 starting safeties with 1 combined year of starting experience between them.

In 1981 the Bengals started 2 safeties with a combined 1 year of experience. Bryan Hicks and Bobby Kemp. Hicks only started 6 games the year before. They went to the SB that year.

That's not relevant at all but i like to cite Bobby Kemp any time i can as he's my favorite Bengal of all time. 

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(04-03-2023, 02:44 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: There will be 2 starting safeties with 1 combined year of starting experience between them.

Scott also played in the Playoffs and the SB and played well and Dax Hill is as talented as it gets and made some plays in the Playoffs as well.

Don't get me wrong there will be some struggles with a 2nd year Safety and a FA, but as long as it doesn't cost us games early it's all good.

This year it should be the back end of the Defense trying to gel together, we will see how fast it happens. 

We need to play both of these guys in the preseason.

[*jason*]

(04-03-2023, 01:58 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: Sure but you have to plan for that hit when it comes. Can't just kick the can down the roadand hope. That's how teams end up in cap hell and making really tough cuts.

Point being we'd only be paying 1 receiver (Tee) big time money for a few years. Then it's Ja'Marr s turn.

[Nepa]

My prediction is that as soon as the Bengals let a sure-thing go in Higgins, they will fail to find suitable replacements for the money saved and the Bengals will decline. So many posters are just assuming that the money saved will translate into quality defensive and offensive players. Did fans forget the Bengals once used a 9th overall pick on John Ross? Or David Pollack getting injured? Higgins is a sure thing. Draft picks and free-agents (Waynes) don't always work out the way dreamed.

The other thing is this continual comparison to the Chiefs letting Tyreek Hill go and still winning a Super Bowl. The Chiefs had homefield advantage based on quite a fortuitous schedule, including 6 wins in their relatively easy division. And still they probably would have lost had the Bengals not lost 3/5 of their OL. The Chiefs lost to their two biggest opponents in the regular season (Bills and Bengals), and had quite a few very close wins over poor opponents, or they might have had their first away game postseason game with Mahomes.

And the Chiefs also have the most unique weapon in Travis Kelce, with his 110 receptions and 1338 yards. I would not be using their model for the Bengals.

Nor do I want to spend the next ten years watching Higgens playing for some competitor. Try not to let the sure thing go. Higgens, Chase, and Joe have been the cornerstone of what is a passing offense.

[THE PISTONS]

(04-03-2023, 04:54 PM)Nepa Wrote: My prediction is that as soon as the Bengals let a sure-thing go in Higgins, they will fail to find suitable replacements for the money saved and the Bengals will decline. So many posters are just assuming that the money saved will translate into quality defensive and offensive players. Did fans forget the Bengals once used a 9th overall pick on John Ross? Or David Pollack getting injured? Higgins is a sure thing. Draft picks and free-agents (Waynes) don't always work out the way dreamed.

The other thing is this continual comparison to the Chiefs letting Tyreek Hill go and still winning a Super Bowl. The Chiefs had homefield advantage based on quite a fortuitous schedule, including 6 wins in their relatively easy division.  And still they probably would have lost had the Bengals not lost 3/5 of their OL. The Chiefs lost to their two biggest opponents in the regular season (Bills and Bengals), and had quite a few very close wins over poor opponents, or they might have had their first away game postseason game with Mahomes.

And the Chiefs also have the most unique weapon in Travis Kelce, with his 110 receptions and 1338 yards. I would not be using their model for the Bengals.

Nor do I want to spend the next ten years watching Higgens playing for some competitor. Try not to let the sure thing go. Higgens, Chase, and Joe have been the cornerstone of what is a passing offense.

When you have an elite QB, it should make average WR's look above average and above average WR's look good. That's how it should work.

Tee is really great at 50/50 balls. Some of the throws he catches, a normal WR doesn't get to. So on these throws, he makes Burrow look better.

It's a debate that no one is having. Does Chase/Tee/Boyd make Burrow look better than he is? Or does Burrow make them look better? If it's the 2nd, then WR's are plug and play.

[impactplaya]

(04-03-2023, 04:57 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: When you have an elite QB, it should make average WR's look above average and above average WR's look good. That's how it should work.

Tee is really great at 50/50 balls. Some of the throws he catches, a normal WR doesn't get to. So on these throws, he makes Burrow look better.

It's a debate that no one is having. Does Chase/Tee/Boyd make Burrow look better than he is? Or does Burrow make them look better? If it's the 2nd, then WR's are plug and play.

I never bought into that theory that just because you
Have a elite QB then you can simply sign bargain bin
WRs and poof he makes them look that much better
It's funny I never heard Colts fans wanting to 
Show Reggie Wayne the door even though they 
Had Dallas Clark and Marvin Harrison.

I swear some of you want Higgins gone even though 
Duke Tobin wants him here and TEE HIGGINS WANT TO REMAIN A BENGAL. 
have any of you paranoid armchair GMs ever considered that maybe Joe Burrow himself 
Insists that the Bengals both retain Chase and Higgins. Joe has a unique chemistry with both 
And unshakeable trust. 

There is no rule that says just because you have 
A elite QB it doesn't mean you can't elite WRs to go
With him. 

[*rfaulk34*]

(04-03-2023, 04:57 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: When you have an elite QB, it should make average WR's look above average and above average WR's look good. That's how it should work.

Tee is really great at 50/50 balls. Some of the throws he catches, a normal WR doesn't get to. So on these throws, he makes Burrow look better.

It's a debate that no one is having. Does Chase/Tee/Boyd make Burrow look better than he is? Or does Burrow make them look better? If it's the 2nd, then WR's are plug and play.

I'm gonna start calling it Marv Syndrome. "But if we let X go, we might get worse!".

Yeah. We let 16yr zero playoff win Marv go and were in the SB 3 years later. Then won 2 more PO games the next year. 

[Soonerpeace]

(04-03-2023, 04:57 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: When you have an elite QB, it should make average WR's look above average and above average WR's look good. That's how it should work.

Tee is really great at 50/50 balls. Some of the throws he catches, a normal WR doesn't get to. So on these throws, he makes Burrow look better.

It's a debate that no one is having. Does Chase/Tee/Boyd make Burrow look better than he is? Or does Burrow make them look better? If it's the 2nd, then WR's are plug and play.

I think it works both ways. But Chase makes some unbelievable catches and Tee as well. Burrow is so on the money. They are definitely going to try to keep them all.

[*Go Cards*]

(04-03-2023, 02:31 PM)Mike M (the other one) Wrote: That's debatable. Losing 3/5 OL to injuries did us in and gave them that opportunity. I don't think they would have had a chance against us if 2/3 of our injured OL was able to play.

Maybe so but Higgins, Wilson, Chase, and Burrow were on rookie deals and the Bengals could field the best team money could buy, KC did not have that luxury. Plus that window is closing on Bengals like it did on KC. The fact remains that they went to their 5th AFC Championship in a row and went to their 3rd SB, winning 2 of them. While dealing with cap trouble per already paying Mahomes and Kelce, without their much better WR than Higgins.

 Everybody saying Chase is going to be on rookie deal for 3 more years ?  I'm not buying that either. When you have a star player you don't make them mad by not signing them early and stringing them along. Just like Burrow, and Wilson are about to be paid after only 3 season so will Chase. They will have to extend Higgins as well right now too if wanting to retain imo. 


Hope they don't though per it will hamstring the team later

[Luvnit2]

(04-02-2023, 09:38 AM)THE PISTONS Wrote: When Burrow is making $50 mill a year, Chase and Tee $25-30 million each...it's going to be significantly harder to add free agents/retain guys. That's over $100 million in cap space tied up in 3 players. For perspective, the cap is around $225 million this year. Now it should go up a decent bit, but even if it's $260 million, can you tie up that much in 3 guys?

As far as production, I'd imagine all 3 of those guys are probably 85-90% to their statistical ceilings. So you'll be paying astronomically more for similar production.

Even $75-80 million in Burrow/Chase is challenging, but I think doable.

Does anyone see any way to make this work?

Those three will be paid. i am just not sure I agree with your assumption on how much they will be paid. I would estimate something like this for all 3: Right now, in 2023 they account for 24 million in cap hits already.

2023 - Burrow extended for 10 years at 450 million with 70% or 315 million guaranteed. Deal includes a 200 million signing bonus which they will pro rate over the additional 10 years, years 2024 through 2033. So, in 2023 cap hit does not change for Burrow. So they will have paid 200 million +11.5 salary for 2023 or 211.500 of the guarantee in 2023.
2024 - 20 million to signing bonus (yearly cap hit for 10 years) + 10 million i base salary = 30 million cap hit
2025 - 20 million to signing bonus + 10 million to salary for 30 million cap hit 
Guarantees paid in 1st 3 years = 231,500 of the 315,000 million
2026- 18 million in salary + 20 million bonus = 38 million cap hit
2027 - 20 million in salary + 20 million cap hit = 40 million
2028 - 25 million in salary + 25 million cap hit = 45 million
After 2029 majority of guarantee is paid off
2029 - 20 million bonus cap + 35 million in salary = 55 million
2030 - 20 million bonus cap + 35 million in salary = 55 million


2031 - 20 million in bonus signing cap + 48 million = 68 million
2032 - 20 million signing bonus + 48million = 68million

This does assumes Joe agrees to on average 45 million a year versus 50 million or higher. But, as you can see, the key is the guaranteed money and the amount of any signing bonus. The signing bonus can be spread over the life (number of years) of the contract which reduces the early year cap hits, but still gives team flexibility in later years to convert and lower the cap to create cap space.


Some fans believe if I guy is pad 450 million over 10 years, then the cap hit is 45 million a year for 10 years. It can be, but huge contracts are not structured this way, the cap hit are smaller in the earlier years and then heavier in the layer years.


The same can be done for Chase and Higgins, we have Chase locked up for a total of five years, so 3 more years. We have Higgins locked up through 2024. My point is we have time to sign them to extensions, the key is does the team have the cash to pay big upfront bonuses to help manage the cap easier.

Even Burrow is locked into us until after the 2024 season, they want to extend him to get him locked in at 2023 prices versus 2025 prices, same for Higgins and Chase.

[Gary Milne]

(04-03-2023, 09:57 AM)ochocincos Wrote: How'd the Chiefs do when they traded away Tyreek Hill?

They won the Super Bowl even though they didn't have a 1000+ yard WR.
Mahomes still threw for over 5000 yards, which was actually more than the year prior with Hill.
Kelce still dominated.
JJSS and MVS combined for 1600 yards between the two of them.
Their top 3 pass catchers put up nearly 3000 yards.

The "Chiefs model" requires an all-time great QB and an all-time great offensive mind, just as the "Patriots model" required an all-time great QB and an all-time great defensive mind. These "models" aren't models at all. They're outliers that work because of the QB-HC combo.

[*jason*]

(04-03-2023, 06:28 PM)Go Cards Wrote: Maybe so but Higgins, Wilson, Chase, and Burrow were on rookie deals and the Bengals could field the best team money could buy, KC did not have that luxury. Plus that window is closing on Bengals like it did on KC. The fact remains that they went to their 5th AFC Championship in a row and went to their 3rd SB, winning 2 of them. While dealing with cap trouble per already paying Mahomes and Kelce, without a their much better WR than Higgins.

 Everybody saying Chase is going to be on rookie deal for 3 more years ?  I'm not buying that either. When you have a star player you don't make them mad by not signing them early and stringing them along. Just like Burrow, and Wilson are about to be paid after only 3 season so will Chase. They will have to extend Higgins as well right now too if wanting to retain imo. 


Hope they don't though per it will hamstring the team later

Pretty sure Chase has to play out his rookie contract regardless of being extended after next year... Right?

[Luvnit2]

(04-03-2023, 06:54 PM)jason Wrote: Pretty sure Chase has to play out his rookie contract regardless of being extended after next year... Right?

Chase can be extended after his 3rd year so earliest prior to 2024 season

[Gary Milne]

(04-03-2023, 06:30 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: 2023 - Burrow extended for 10 years at 450 million with 70% or 315 million guaranteed. Deal includes a 200 million signing bonus which they will pro rate over the additional 10 years, years 2024 through 2033. So, in 2023 cap hit does not change for Burrow. So they will have paid 200 million +11.5 salary for 

The 200 million in your model would have to include signing bonus, roster bonuses and option bonuses. The actual signing bonus portion will be the least of the three.

[NotBigzo]

(04-02-2023, 04:02 PM)Sled21 Wrote: I'm not sure we can say that yet. Yes, we lost Bell and Bates, to experienced vets who knew the system. But we replaced them with younger but faster players. With the increased speed, and Hill is now in his 2nd year in the system, we may in fact have gotten better. Remember, Playoff Jessie was not around for most of the season anyway. He was playing timid most of the time to keep from getting injured last year, and the year before he admitted his head wasn't on straight because of his contract. We kept our linebackers intact and the same with our D line. We will be getting Awuzie back, and CTB was playing lights out at the end of his rookie year. 

We got worse.

Just stop. We have a SUS young guy and another slightly older guy that hasn;t been great.

[Mike M (the other one)]

(04-03-2023, 04:57 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: When you have an elite QB, it should make average WR's look above average and above average WR's look good. That's how it should work.

Tee is really great at 50/50 balls. Some of the throws he catches, a normal WR doesn't get to. So on these throws, he makes Burrow look better.

It's a debate that no one is having. Does Chase/Tee/Boyd make Burrow look better than he is? Or does Burrow make them look better? If it's the 2nd, then WR's are plug and play.

?
Why can't they complement each other? Slightly off throw, on a diime? Just catch it either way.

[impactplaya]

(04-03-2023, 05:37 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: I'm gonna start calling it Marv Syndrome. "But if we let X go, we might get worse!".

Yeah. We let 16yr zero playoff win Marv go and were in the SB 3 years later. Then won 2 more PO games the next year. 

Let me throw a hypothetical at you.
What if the Bengals drafted Penei Sewell instead of Chase. And Penei is a Top 10 RT in the league.
And Tee Higgins is a Top 10 WR. 
What would your stance be on retaiing Burrow Higgins and Sewell? Would you still trade Higgins ?

[*rfaulk34*]

(04-03-2023, 09:04 PM)impactplaya Wrote: Let me throw a hypothetical at you.
What if the Bengals drafted Penei Sewell instead of Chase. And Penei is a Top 10 RT in the league.
And Tee Higgins is a Top 10 WR. 
What would your stance be on retaiing Burrow Higgins and Sewell? Would you still trade Higgins ?

Burrow, Higgins and Sewell is exactly what you want. That's a no brainer. That's not nearly the same as Burrow, Chase, Higgins. 

[impactplaya]

(04-03-2023, 10:32 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Burrow, Higgins and Sewell is exactly what you want. That's a no brainer. That's not nearly the same as Burrow, Chase, Higgins. 

OK so that means you were against the Bengals drafting Chase over Sewell.
OK to each his own . No problem.