So Ready for the Draft Simulation

[OSUfan]

The closer we get to the draft the more scenarios of what direction the Bengals could go race through my head from different prospects to trade scenarios. This was a new perspective I considered and frankly I believe this is the best outcome I have had in running a simulation for the Bengals.

I was running this simulation on MockDraftDatabase because I feel as if their prospect rankings are about as accurate as anyone out there if not better than most. While trades are a part of the draft process I do feel this simulator has a tendency to offer trades that are far from realistic so a criteria I used was not to even consider any trade that I did not feel would be reasonable on draft day, keeping in mind that blockbuster multiple selection trades only generally happen in the top 10-15 selections.

Following is my trade recap, the draft selections, and then a breakdown of the consideration of the selection and notable other prospects that were on the board at the time of the selection.

[OSUfan]

   

[OSUfan]

   
   

[Danimal]

I like the Zach Evans pick. I hope we get that guy.

[OSUfan]

RD 1 - 28th

Mazi Smith - DT - Michigan - 6'3" 323

Notables available:
B. Branch, C. Kancey, D. Kincaid, D. Washington, A. Harrison, W. McDonald, K. Ringo

When I watch Mazi Smith I see a very special player in the making. I do not believe he has even realized how dominant he can be. Smith is a rare breed in that he is a run stuffing NT that as well provides serious pass rush threat. What Smith must do is create more consistency within his game which is something that should come through working with an outstanding D line coach like Marion Hobby as well working beside a player the Caliber of DJ Reader. Smith provides a very serious insurance policy should Reader go elsewhere in '24 but as well provides a very nasty duo should Reader return. I could see fronts with Reader lining up at the 1 and Smith at the 3. The Bengals needed to add pass rush to turn high pressures to sacks and this should certainly help.

RD 2 - 60th

Chicago was looking to move up and offered a trade giving them the 60th selection and sending 2-64 and 4-133 to the Bengals. I felt that making this trade added good value later and that targeted players would still be available.

RD 2 - 64th

Arizona wanted to move up to the 64th selection and offered the Bengals 3-66 and 5-168 to do so. Again, this added value later in the draft while also the opportunity to still select a targeted prospect

RD 2 - 66th

Tucker Kraft - TE - S. Dakota St. - 6'5" 254

Notables available: T. Simpson, C. Phillips III, J. Tippmann, D. Henley, M. Bergeron, S. Brown

Just like another Jackrabbit Alumni, Dallas Goedert, Kraft brings transferrable traits to the NFL game. Kraft possesses a good all around game that is pretty refined. He is a really good inline and down field blocker as well as an outstanding receiver. Kraft makes the tough catch and is always looking to create after the catch. I have been a fan of Kraft as a prospect thru the entire process and after seeing an interview with him I became completely sold on him as he is such a driven young man. He wants to be great and he works to be great.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sMG6yURTCKY

RD. 3 - 92nd

Joe Tippmann - C/G - Wisconsin - 6'6" 313

Notables available: D. Henley, S. Brown, A. Carter, C. Tillman, L. Wypler, E. Ricks

I considered Tippmann at 92 and went with Kraft because the drop off in TEs after him is significant. Never did I believe that Tippmann would fall but stranger things happen virtually every draft. This was a very easy selection selection first of all because he was the BPA and he may be the most versatile lineman in the entire draft. Aside from his physical talents his greatest asset may well be his football IQ as related by evaluators and the Wisconsin staff. The Badgers regularly put out high quality linemen and Tippmann continues this tradition. Tippmann compares favorably to Creed Humphrey and provides the Bengals multiple options on the line with the most likely being Tippmann moving into center and Karras moving to LG where he is also experienced.

RD 4 - 131st

Zach Evans - RB - Ole Miss - 5'11" 202

Notables Available: J. Martin, G. Williams, J. Mingo, R. Johnson, Z. Kuntz, J. Roy, L. Schoonmaker, W. Morris

Evans is not huge but he runs with authority and fights for additional yardage on every run. Evans possesses homerun speed and has outstanding balance which assists him in running through arm tackles and gaining additional yards after contact. He has had some little injuries over his firsts couple of seasons but if medicals check out well, which they should as he played 12 games in '22, then he is a great addition to this offense and a serious playmaking threat that the offense has missed from the position.

RD 4 - 133rd

Wanya Morris - OT - Oklahoma - 6'5" 307

Notables available: G. Williams, J. Mingo, R. Johnson, Z. Kuntz, J. Roy, L. Schoonmaker, R. Moss

The reality is that Jonah Williams more than likely is the starting RT in '23 but we all know that is a 1 year rental deal. Morris provides serious competition for the starting RT job with Carman in '24. Morris provides the ability to play both RT and LT and if he is not starting provides a quality of depth that this O line has been missing in a swing tackle if he does not win the starting RT job. This selection would almost certainly mean the end of either the Adeniji or D'ante Smith era on the roster.

RD 5 - 163rd

Riley Moss - CB - Iowa - 6'1" 193

Notables available: I. Pace Jr., M. Ojomo, E. Gray, S. Tucker, X. Hutchinson, C. Brown

I considered Moss at 133 so I was pleased to see him on the board here. Again, he was the BPA while also providing much needed quality depth at CB. Moss is very experienced and is excellent in zone coverage so should fit extremely well in Lou's system. Brings good size, length, and speed to the position but his traits are highlighted by his football IQ. Can get up to challenge 50/50 balls and has outstanding ball skills. This is a huge get for the Bengals at this point in the draft and this kid will be on the 53.

RD 5 - 168th

Davis Allen - TE - Clemson - 6'6" 245

The Bengals double up here at TE adding another very good prospect in a really deep class. Allen at this time is a decent blocker and that should improve as he adds mass at the Pro level and he has the frame to carry that mass without jeopardizing his athleticism. Allen is pretty decent in route running. Where Allen stands out is attacking the ball and after it is in his hands. Allen should make the roster with Kraft and Irv Smith and has the potential to develop into an outstanding NFL TE.

RD 6 - 206th

Hunter Luepke - RB - N. Dakota St. - 6'1" 235

As with TE the Bengals double up at RB and complete the transformation of the RB position. Luepke showed on tape and in testing that he is not just a big lumbering back or a FB but rather he is a 4 down back that brings the traits you are looking for to the position. Ran a 4.56 at his Pro Day which is very respectable for a back his size. Outstanding pass protector and excellent receiver out of the backfield. The transformation of the RB room gives the Bengals the confidence to make a June 1 cut of Mixon separating them from the off the field controversy and providing them with significant cap savings.

RD 7 - 246th

Jalen Redmond - DT - Oklahoma - 6'2" 291

Redmond provides the Bengals with a player that could develop into an interior pass rush threat. Brings some potential for Marion Hobby to work with and could be a good piece to have on the practice squad.

[OSUfan]

Priority UDFAs:

Bryce Baringer - P - Michigan St. - 6'2" 216

Power punter that needs to work on touch and accuracy but can certainly flip the field.

Michael Turk - P - Oklahoma - 6'0" 227

Nephew of NFL great Matt Turk and in the same boat as Baringer in that he has a huge leg but needs to work on position and touch. Did improve his hang time in '22.

Rejzohn Wright - CB - Oregon St. - 6'2" 193

If he can clean up some technique issues he could be a high quality NFL corner and brings really good size, length, and speed to the room.

Jerome Carvin - G - Tennessee - 6'5" 313

A very experienced interior lineman that frankly I believe is better than any depth we currently have inside.

Deneric Prince - RB - Tulsa - 6'0" 216

Practice squad or RB3?

[Nepa]

(04-08-2023, 12:18 PM)OSUfan Wrote: RD 1 - 28th

Mazi Smith - DT - Michigan - 6'3" 323
*******

Is this your analysis? It seems that way, given statements like "I considered Tippmann at 92 and went with Kraft because...". If it is, it is a very impressive and detailed analysis and much appreciated.

[*Synric*]

How do you feel about Tucker Kraft year one?

There is a ton of upside with Kraft athletically and he has shown some physicality and some aggression as a blocker (The 2021 Aggies game sticks out for Kraft as a blocker) but there is a alot of work to do with him as an inline TE-Y and the Bengals really need someone that can start there week one because that isn't Irv Smith. I feel more comfortable for Kraft as a week one pass catcher his rookie year than as an inline blocker.

[OSUfan]

(04-08-2023, 12:43 PM)Nepa Wrote: Is this your analysis? It seems that way, given statements like "I considered Tippmann at 92 and went with Kraft because...". If it is, it is a very impressive and detailed analysis and much appreciated.

Yes it was my analysis. Thank you.

[OSUfan]

(04-08-2023, 06:21 PM)Synric Wrote: How do you feel about Tucker Kraft year one?

There is a ton of upside with Kraft athletically and he has shown some physicality and some aggression as a blocker (The 2021 Aggies game sticks out for Kraft as a blocker) but there is a alot of work to do with him as an inline TE-Y and the Bengals really need someone that can start there week one because that isn't Irv Smith. I feel more comfortable for Kraft as a week one pass catcher his rookie year than as an inline blocker.

I feel completely confident in all aspects of Kraft's game as a rookie. From inline blocking to singled up on a DE or a blitzer. The slight weaknesses that there may be in his game as a blocker really come down to technique issues such as hand placement and not from things that cannot be coached such as natural strength and power. The blocking game of Kraft can get much better simply by consistent inside hand placement against the defender and by getting his pads lower when engaged in a block.


I feel like most of the core attributes are there for Kraft to be outstanding in both aspects of the TE role, blocking and receiving, and that the refinement of these attributes are what will get Kraft to that point.

[*Synric*]

(04-08-2023, 10:58 PM)OSUfan Wrote: I feel like most of the core attributes are there for Kraft to be outstanding in both aspects of the TE role, blocking and receiving, and that the refinement of these attributes are what will get Kraft to that point.

I agree with this part the talent is there for him to be a very good inline blocker but the technique, understanding, and experience just isn't there yet. Add in an extreme jump in competition from FCS to the NFL and there is a lot of bad for Kraft year one. Kraft has one of the highest ceilings in the TE draft class but he has a very low floor too because he is so raw in everything he does. Kraft has what 1.5 years of reps at TE at any level of football? He was a RB (and I think LB) coming out of HS lol.

Im not the biggest fan of Luke Schoonmaker but I have them as comparable prospects for the Bengals at 92. Kraft has a tremendously higher ceiling but Schoonmaker I can trust more in year one as a TE2/TE-Y with Irv Smith as the move TE.

[OSUfan]

(04-09-2023, 10:45 AM)Synric Wrote: I agree with this part the talent is there for him to be a very good inline blocker but the technique, understanding, and experience just isn't there yet. Add in an extreme jump in competition from FCS to the NFL and there is a lot of bad for Kraft year one. Kraft has one of the highest ceilings in the TE draft class but he has a very low floor too because he is so raw in everything he does. Kraft has what 1.5 years of reps at TE at any level of football? He was a RB (and I think LB) coming out of HS lol.

Im not the biggest fan of Luke Schoonmaker but I have them as comparable prospects for the Bengals at 92. Kraft has a tremendously higher ceiling but Schoonmaker I can trust more in year one as a TE2/TE-Y with Irv Smith as the move TE.

I feel that you are using a very poor strategy for your draft criteria. When drafting a player it cannot be for the singularity of a first season. Drafts are educated decisions made regarding the future of the player in question. As well, the traits that Kraft displays are transferable to the next level. You seem to have an issue with his experience while I guess I look at the experience he has and what he has shown during that time. The Jackrabbits offense ran the ball a bit more than they passed the ball and both of the TEs did a great deal of blocking in their running game.


I believe you must also consider the work ethic that Kraft applies to the game and his drive to perfect his craft (no pun intended). He works very hard at his game and wants to be great. So no I would not pass on his higher upside to have someone who may or may not have a better first season.

[*Synric*]

(04-09-2023, 02:21 PM)OSUfan Wrote: I feel that you are using a very poor strategy for your draft criteria. When drafting a player it cannot be for the singularity of a first season. Drafts are educated decisions made regarding the future of the player in question. As well, the traits that Kraft displays are transferable to the next level. You seem to have an issue with his experience while I guess I look at the experience he has and what he has shown during that time. The Jackrabbits offense ran the ball a bit more than they passed the ball and both of the TEs did a great deal of blocking in their running game.


I believe you must also consider the work ethic that Kraft applies to the game and his drive to perfect his craft (no pun intended). He works very hard at his game and wants to be great. So no I would not pass on his higher upside to have someone who may or may not have a better first season.

You also don't draft a very raw high upside player and expect him to be successful in year one.

If you have to depend on a player doing something year one then you would hope that is the trait they can come straight in the league and be successful. I don't think Tucker Kraft will be a successful in-line blocker in year one so they would have to solve that issue another way for 2023 because they don't have that guy right now.

Tucker Kraft wins mostly because he is just a better athlete than alot of players in the FCS he won't do that in the NFL. He is a willing blocker but not a good one yet poor angles plays upright bad hand time and hand placement. He has alot of ceiling in that area like I said the 2021 Aggies game is his best game in college football as a blocker but that was really the only really aggressive blocking game from him.


Tucker Kraft is a very high ceiling player but his floor is just as low as his ceiling is high because of how raw his is in everything. As a receiver I can see him week one finding holes in zones and racking up some YAC. He won't be good against man coverage because he routes are ugly and his route tree out of SDSU is small.

I would say Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft have the higher bust chance than most of the other highly rated TE's. Kraft because he is raw and Musgrave because of sample size.

[OSUfan]

(04-09-2023, 06:28 PM)Synric Wrote: You also don't draft a very raw high upside player and expect him to be successful in year one.

If you have to depend on a player doing something year one then you would hope that is the trait they can come straight in the league and be successful. I don't think Tucker Kraft will be a successful in-line blocker in year one so they would have to solve that issue another way for 2023 because they don't have that guy right now.

Tucker Kraft wins mostly because he is just a better athlete than alot of players in the FCS he won't do that in the NFL. He is a willing blocker but not a good one yet poor angles plays upright bad hand time and hand placement. He has alot of ceiling in that area like I said the 2021 Aggies game is his best game in college football as a blocker but that was really the only really aggressive blocking game from him.


Tucker Kraft is a very high ceiling player but his floor is just as low as his ceiling is high because of how raw his is in everything. As a receiver I can see him week one finding holes in zones and racking up some YAC. He won't be good against man coverage because he routes are ugly and his route tree out of SDSU is small.

I would say Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft have the higher bust chance than most of the other highly rated TE's. Kraft because he is raw and Musgrave because of sample size.

I am sorry but you are making it out as if Kraft is some uber raw prospect that is playing on pure potential and it just ain't so. Let's just be honest you have no clue how Kraft wins on successful downs you are assuming it is because he is playing against FCS opponents but the fact of the matter is that he has has the same success when S. Dakota St. has played against BCS competition. If Kraft is raw then I will take a whole bunch of raw players if they are as driven as this kid is.

[*Synric*]

(04-09-2023, 06:42 PM)OSUfan Wrote: I am sorry but you are making it out as if Kraft is some uber raw prospect that is playing on pure potential and it just ain't so. Let's just be honest you have no clue how Kraft wins on successful downs you are assuming it is because he is playing against FCS opponents but the fact of the matter is that he has has the same success when S. Dakota St. has played against BCS competition. If Kraft is raw then I will take a whole bunch of raw players if they are as driven as this kid is.

Plays upright, feet to close together makes a narrow base, poor hand timing, and consistent wide hands. Needs to learn to roll his hips into contact and play lower to create leverage. But the upside is there latch strength leg drive balance and in that Aggies game I've mentioned alot of aggression.

I've been a promoter of Kraft because of his easy transitions from catch to runner and his good balance and contact balance for YAC. But Kraft has only played the Tight End position for 1.5 seasons at any level and it shows up especially as a blocker because he has no experience attached to the Line. Its expected.

Kyle Crabbs formerly the Senior Scout for the Draft Network. He wrote alot of the scouting reports people are basing their stuff after when talking draft prospects lol. Crabbs is doing several draft prospect podcasts for Locked on Dolphins and the Dolphins have alot of the same needs as the BEngals so he has been doing TE's OTs and RBs. He's still working on the RBs but OT and TE are done.

Here is his episode on Tucker Kraft. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/2023-miami-dolphins-draft-prospect-series-te-tucker-kraft/id1137170219?i=1000606755517 Its also on Youtube if you want to go there Locked on Dolphins.

[OSUfan]

(04-09-2023, 06:28 PM)Synric Wrote: You also don't draft a very raw high upside player and expect him to be successful in year one.

If you have to depend on a player doing something year one then you would hope that is the trait they can come straight in the league and be successful. I don't think Tucker Kraft will be a successful in-line blocker in year one so they would have to solve that issue another way for 2023 because they don't have that guy right now.

Tucker Kraft wins mostly because he is just a better athlete than alot of players in the FCS he won't do that in the NFL. He is a willing blocker but not a good one yet poor angles plays upright bad hand time and hand placement. He has alot of ceiling in that area like I said the 2021 Aggies game is his best game in college football as a blocker but that was really the only really aggressive blocking game from him.


Tucker Kraft is a very high ceiling player but his floor is just as low as his ceiling is high because of how raw his is in everything. As a receiver I can see him week one finding holes in zones and racking up some YAC. He won't be good against man coverage because he routes are ugly and his route tree out of SDSU is small.

I would say Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft have the higher bust chance than most of the other highly rated TE's. Kraft because he is raw and Musgrave because of sample size.

Musgrave is a terrible blocker and could not hold the jock of Kraft in that department. Musgrave looks absolutely lost when he is asked to block. 

[OSUfan]

(04-09-2023, 06:56 PM)Synric Wrote: Plays upright, feet to close together makes a narrow base, poor hand timing, and consistent wide hands. Needs to learn to roll his hips into contact and play lower to create leverage. But the upside is there latch strength leg drive balance and in that Aggies game I've mentioned alot of aggression.

I've been a promoter of Kraft because of his easy transitions from catch to runner and his good balance and contact balance for YAC. But Kraft has only played the Tight End position for 1.5 seasons at any level and it shows up especially as a blocker because he has no experience attached to the Line. Its expected.

Kyle Crabbs formerly the Senior Scout for the Draft Network. He wrote alot of the scouting reports people are basing their stuff after when talking draft prospects lol. Crabbs is doing several draft prospect podcasts for Locked on Dolphins and the Dolphins have alot of the same needs as the BEngals so he has been doing TE's OTs and RBs. He's still working on the RBs but OT and TE are done.

Here is his episode on Tucker Kraft. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/2023-miami-dolphins-draft-prospect-series-te-tucker-kraft/id1137170219?i=1000606755517 Its also on Youtube if you want to go there Locked on Dolphins.

Yep, I read the same report that you typed basically word for word. 

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

Would be happy with this draft, kind of similar to my 2nd, but you double dipped at TE and RB unlike mine which is why I like this better.

Zach Evans is a good RB I keep forgetting about in this draft and we are interested in him as we have visited with him. Really like Leupke
as a blocker and pass catcher as well, perfect Perine replacement. Getting Mazi Smith or Bresee sure would help with the departure of DJ
next year. Love getting Tipmann and Wanya Morris for the OL.

Always liked Riley Moss when I watched Iowa, ballhawk. Nice job OSUfan.

[OSUfan]

(04-11-2023, 04:44 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Would be happy with this draft, kind of similar to my 2nd, but you double dipped at TE and RB unlike mine which is why I like this better.

Zach Evans is a good RB I keep forgetting about in this draft and we are interested in him as we have visited with him. Really like Leupke
as a blocker and pass catcher as well, perfect Perine replacement. Getting Mazi Smith or Bresee sure would help with the departure of DJ
next year. Love getting Tipmann and Wanya Morris for the OL.

Always liked Riley Moss when I watched Iowa, ballhawk. Nice job OSUfan.

Thanks Nate! The kid is more than a pass catcher and blocker...he can flat run the ball and does so with really good anticipation and vision. If he can't run by or around you then he will run over you. He is an outstanding athlete. I would like to see Mazi or Bresee teaming up with DJ rather than him leaving.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(04-11-2023, 05:47 PM)OSUfan Wrote: Thanks Nate! The kid is more than a pass catcher and blocker...he can flat run the ball and does so with really good anticipation and vision. If he can't run by or around you then he will run over you. He is an outstanding athlete. I would like to see Mazi or Bresee teaming up with DJ rather than him leaving.

Cool, will have to watch some film on Luepke is all I have done is read up on him.

So true on DJ, hope we can extend him for a couple more years, he has a lot left in him, was dominant last year and in the Playoffs when 
he was healthy. Some are talking like we won't extend him, but I just don't understand that talk at all. He is a pivotal part of this team and 
pretty much missed his first year here, so he might even have more left in the tank because of this.

Bring back the Gravedigger!!!