Update On Burrow's Extension

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(04-07-2023, 09:32 AM)THE PISTONS Wrote: I'm reading that players don't really like the 10 year deals that Mahomes signed. They're incredibly team favorable deals.

The QB market is always hot and when the contract is up, he could sign a $70 million a year deal possibly.

Not that surprising. While Mahomes was the highest paid QB by a lot the year he signed his extension, and was still the highest paid QB the year after he signed his extension... he's heading into the 4th year after signing his extension and looking at already falling to the 8th or 9th highest paid QB with 9 years left.

I think 4 years is just way too short, though. Makes me worried about him playing his whole career here. 6 would be nicer.

(04-08-2023, 08:41 AM)Synric Wrote: Tom Brady won super bowls because he took a lot less money than the rest of the league. That is what has made him the GOAT. Tom Brady didnt make 20m in a season until around 2018 or 2019.

Tom Brady took less for his play career but just signed a 320+ million dollar media contract that is worth more than his entire 23 season of playing. When you are a QB the money now is nice but legacy can earn you bigger pay days in the future.

This is a partial myth. At least when using it to talk about a young guy who hasn't had a single extension yet. While it's true he took less money later on, Tom Brady didn't start taking well below his market value until his 2013 extension which was when he was 36 years old, had already made about $140m (he already had 3 extensions prior to taking a below market one), won 3 SBs, and had been married for 4 years to a woman who was worth hundreds of millions of dollars.

In 2010 he signed a 4yr/$72m deal ($18m/yr). For comparison.... In 2008 Ben Roethlisberger signed a 6yr/$87.9m deal ($14.65m/yr). In 2009 Philip Rivers signed a 6yr/91.8m deal ($15.3m/yr). In 2011 Peyton Manning signed a 5yr/$90m deal ($18m/yr). In 2012 Drew Brees signed a 5yr/$100m deal ($20m/yr). 

Until 2013, Tom Brady was making top money.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(04-08-2023, 07:50 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Not that surprising. While Mahomes was the highest paid QB by a lot the year he signed his extension, and was still the highest paid QB the year after he signed his extension... he's heading into the 4th year after signing his extension and looking at already falling to the 8th or 9th highest paid QB with 9 years left.

I think 4 years is just way too short, though. Makes me worried about him playing his whole career here. 6 would be nicer.


This is a partial myth. At least when using it to talk about a young guy who hasn't had a single extension yet. While it's true he took less money later on, Tom Brady didn't start taking well below his market value until his 2013 extension which was when he was 36 years old, had already made about $140m (he already had 3 extensions prior to taking a below market one), won 3 SBs, and had been married for 4 years to a woman who was worth hundreds of millions of dollars.

In 2010 he signed a 4yr/$72m deal ($18m/yr). For comparison.... In 2008 Ben Roethlisberger signed a 6yr/$87.9m deal ($14.65m/yr). In 2009 Philip Rivers signed a 6yr/91.8m deal ($15.3m/yr). In 2011 Peyton Manning signed a 5yr/$90m deal ($18m/yr). In 2012 Drew Brees signed a 5yr/$100m deal ($20m/yr). 

Until 2013, Tom Brady was making top money.

You think Tom got to touch that money without a nag from the ole wif? 

[BFritz21]

(04-08-2023, 07:50 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: I think 4 years is just way too short, though. Makes me worried about him playing his whole career here. 6 would be nicer.

No need to worry about that. He wouldn’t go into the final year of his deal without an extension.

He’s just playing it smart since the salary cap will keep going up.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(04-08-2023, 08:07 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: You think Tom got to touch that money without a nag from the ole wif? 

No, but there's got to be a difference in mindset between your significant other being worth $0 on their own and being worth $500m on their own, even before you factor in Brady's 4 contracts (3 extensions) totaling a little over $140m he had before finally taking below market value when he was a 36-year-old. 

He was heading into his 14th NFL season before taking less. Lol

[*Synric*]

(04-08-2023, 07:50 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: This is a partial myth. At least when using it to talk about a young guy who hasn't had a single extension yet. While it's true he took less money later on, Tom Brady didn't start taking well below his market value until his 2013 extension which was when he was 36 years old, had already made about $140m (he already had 3 extensions prior to taking a below market one), won 3 SBs, and had been married for 4 years to a woman who was worth hundreds of millions of dollars.

In 2010 he signed a 4yr/$72m deal ($18m/yr). For comparison.... In 2008 Ben Roethlisberger signed a 6yr/$87.9m deal ($14.65m/yr). In 2009 Philip Rivers signed a 6yr/91.8m deal ($15.3m/yr). In 2011 Peyton Manning signed a 5yr/$90m deal ($18m/yr). In 2012 Drew Brees signed a 5yr/$100m deal ($20m/yr). 

Until 2013, Tom Brady was making top money.

In his 23 season NFL career Brady only took near top of the NFL QB market in 4 years 2005, 2006, 2010, and 2011 and only was the highest paid QB for 1 year in 2011 before taking a pay cut in 2013... coincidentally those are also close the years Brady didn't win a super bowl.

No one mentions the decade gap in Brady Superbowls when he was taking no money to when he was taking less money.

[Bengalbug]

(04-08-2023, 09:57 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: No, but there's got to be a difference in mindset between your significant other being worth $0 on their own and being worth $500m on their own, even before you factor in Brady's 4 contracts (3 extensions) totaling a little over $140m he had before finally taking below market value when he was a 36-year-old. 

He was heading into his 14th NFL season before taking less. Lol

Less is a relative term. He left money on the table at almost every turn, while also structuring in a way they beneficial to the franchise.

https://www.si.com/nfl/2022/02/23/ongoing-mystery-of-why-tom-brady-played-for-less

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(04-08-2023, 10:29 PM)Synric Wrote: In his 23 season NFL career Brady only took near top of the NFL QB market in 4 years 2005, 2006, 2010, and 2011 and only was the highest paid QB for 1 year in 2011 before taking a pay cut in 2013...  coincidentally those are also close the years Brady didn't win a super bowl.

No one mentions the decade gap in Brady Superbowls when he was taking no money to when he was taking less money.

Well below HIS market value, not the top of the NFL QB market. He didn't always post the type of stats that would demand top of the NFL QB market money.

Before the 2002 season he was on a <$300k/yr deal that he had another year left on, and he would have been a restricted free agent after that. He had only been in the NFL for 2 years and had 18 career passing TDs. On the other hand he won the SB (but threw 1 total TD in the 3 playoff games). So 4yr/$29.6m ($7.4m/yr) WAS his peak market value at the time. Brett Favre, who had 3 MVPs and a SB win at the time, signed 1 year earlier for $10.15m/yr. 

You can't argue that Brady took "less" with that deal. His name didn't start appearing on All-Pro teams and OPoY votes and start to be the dominant passer until his 6th season as a 28-year-old, after he had already signed extension #2.

Peyton Manning signed his 1st extension after winning his 1st MVP, getting OPoY votes 3 years, being a 1x 1st Team All-Pro and 2x 2nd Team All-Pro.
Tom Brady signed his 2nd extension 3 years before winning his 1st MVP, with no OPoY votes, 0x 1st Team All-Pro, and 1x 2nd Team All-Pro.

I didn't mention the decade gap because I wasn't arguing that him eventually taking less wasn't helpful for winning more SBs. It was. I am arguing that he didn't start taking significantly less than what HE could get until well into his career and isn't a comparable situation to any of these young QBs who have never gotten their first extension yet.

[THE PISTONS]

(04-08-2023, 08:34 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: No need to worry about that. He wouldn’t go into the final year of his deal without an extension.

He’s just playing it smart since the salary cap will keep going up.

The finance side is a big part of it. But, generally players like flexibility to leave if things go really south with a roster. That's a generality.

[THE PISTONS]

I think Burrow is going to get like $52+ million a year now.

Eagles and Jalen Hurts reached agreement on a five-year, $255 million extension, including $179.304 million guaranteed, per source.

Hurts becomes the highest-paid player in NFL history in a deal negotiated by Nicole Lynn of Klutch Sports Group and Eagles’ GM Howie Roseman. pic.twitter.com/DXG0ZWzsGJ

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) April 17, 2023

[*pally*]

Highest-paid QBs in the NFL in new money average per year:

1. Jalen Hurts: $51M
2. Aaron Rodgers: $49M
3. Kyler Murray: $46.1M
4. Deshaun Watson: $46M
5. Patrick Mahomes: $45M
6. Josh Allen: $43M
T-7. Daniel Jones: $40M
T-7. Matthew Stafford: $40M
T-7. Dak Prescott: $40M

— Field Yates (@FieldYates) April 17, 2023

[jj22]

Not bad for Hurts. They better act fast tho. At least Hurts been to a SB. If they wait for Herbert, Lamar with no SB or postseason success, they'll be forced to have a contract comparable to theirs, as they will beat this and Burrow will argue he's accomplished more than them.

[Nepa]

Starting to feel that the way these contracts are going that a Burrow contract will end up being great for Joe Burrow and horrible for the Cincinnati Bengals. I thought Dashaun Watson was a wild outlier, but it was just the start of a trend. Can't believe how the Chiefs, with perhaps the best QB in the game, have Mahomes on what is now a team-friendly deal for the next ten years.

[*pally*]

Smart of Philly to go first, before Joe Burrow gets his deal in Cincinnati or Justin Herbert gets his deal in LA. But this ($51 million APY) would seem to set the floor for those guys. https://t.co/f5UDexpLpg

— Albert Breer (@AlbertBreer) April 17, 2023

[*Synric*]

(04-17-2023, 12:52 PM)pally Wrote:

Smart of Philly to go first, before Joe Burrow gets his deal in Cincinnati or Justin Herbert gets his deal in LA. But this ($51 million APY) would seem to set the floor for those guys. https://t.co/f5UDexpLpg

— Albert Breer (@AlbertBreer) April 17, 2023

Yea 51 was going to be the floor but the ceiling likely wont be much higher. Wouldnt suprise me if Herbert gets 50 and Joe gets 51.5.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(04-17-2023, 12:41 PM)Nepa Wrote: Starting to feel that the way these contracts are going that a  Burrow contract will end up being great for Joe Burrow and horrible for the Cincinnati Bengals. I thought Dashaun Watson was a wild outlier, but it was just the start of a trend.  Can't believe how the Chiefs, with perhaps the best QB in the game, have Mahomes on what is now a team-friendly deal for the next ten years.

It still is. The Hurts contract is $110m fully guaranteed at signing, less than half of Watson's $230m.

(04-17-2023, 12:52 PM)pally Wrote:

Smart of Philly to go first, before Joe Burrow gets his deal in Cincinnati or Justin Herbert gets his deal in LA. But this ($51 million APY) would seem to set the floor for those guys. https://t.co/f5UDexpLpg

— Albert Breer (@AlbertBreer) April 17, 2023

Exactly why the Bengals needed to get Burrow's deal done first. Numbers only going up. Does reinforce the belief that fully guaranteed at signing isn't happening, at least.

[*pally*]

(04-17-2023, 05:02 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: It still is. The Hurts contract is $110m fully guaranteed at signing, less than half of Watson's $230m.


Exactly why the Bengals needed to get Burrow's deal done first. Numbers only going up. Does reinforce the belief that fully guaranteed at signing isn't happening, at least.

Hurts was always going to be first....he was on a 4 year contract while Joe and Herbert are on 5 year ones

Eagles’ QB Jalen Hurts’ salary-cap numbers for the next four seasons after today’s $255 million extension:

?2023: $6.15 million
?2024: $13.56 million
?2025: $21.77 million
?2026: $31.77 million

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) April 17, 2023

 

[Au165]

(04-17-2023, 08:18 PM)pally Wrote: Hurts was always going to be first....he was on a 4 year contract while Joe and Herbert are on 5 year ones

Eagles’ QB Jalen Hurts’ salary-cap numbers for the next four seasons after today’s $255 million extension:

?2023: $6.15 million
?2024: $13.56 million
?2025: $21.77 million
?2026: $31.77 million

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) April 17, 2023

 

These numbers make me think there is not nearly the amount of true guaranteed money in this deal as people initially assumed. When final details come out I think this deal will in reality be a lot less than it looks like on the surface. The fact no one has said a signing bonus yet in any of the leaks make me thing it has intentionally been hidden because it’s not nearly as large as other QB deals.

[Housh]

I’m glad someone made a thread reacting to Hurts.

I had 1/2 a mind to start one in Jungle Noise because i absolutely feel like his contract was important to our team. Idgaf about the total money or years. I was worried about % guaranteed because if the Watson deal is seen as an anomaly then the next set of QBs will truly set the market. Hurts at 45 per means Burrow probably has grounds to ask for at least 50 per. If Hurts gets 80% guaranteed, Burrow can probably pull a power play and demand 85% of his deal be guaranteed as i believe he’s about that % better than Hurts.

If Burrow signed a 5 year deal that’s be 25 million more than Hurts and i definitely think Burrow’s agent can make that case. No way Burrow can sell he’s 30-40 million dollars better than Hurts so his deal here should at least be in this general ball park.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(04-17-2023, 08:23 PM)Au165 Wrote: These numbers make me think there is not nearly the amount of true guaranteed money in this deal as people initially assumed. When final details come out I think this deal will in reality be a lot less than it looks like on the surface. The fact no one has said a signing bonus yet in any of the leaks make me thing it has intentionally been hidden because it’s not nearly as large as other QB deals.

He is on the final year of a 4yr/$6m rookie contract. That's why it is starting out so low. 1 year of his extremely cheap rookie contract and 5 years of extension. True guaranteed money is $110m, guaranteed at signing. It's the 3rd most in the NFL.


Burrow's cap hit this year alone as a 1st overall pick ($11.5m) is almost twice that of Hurt's entire 4 year rookie contract, and depending on how they do the extension, Burrow also has a $29.5m 5th year option. So while it takes a little bit to ramp up to the big cap hits, Burrow will start with a much higher floor of cap hits.

[*Nately120*]

(04-17-2023, 05:02 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: It still is. The Hurts contract is $110m fully guaranteed at signing, less than half of Watson's $230m.


Exactly why the Bengals needed to get Burrow's deal done first. Numbers only going up. Does reinforce the belief that fully guaranteed at signing isn't happening, at least.

Burrow's deal can get done whenever.  He's either going to give the Bengals a deal or he isn't.  We're going into this year with a coin-toss expectation that he's going to be the league and SB MVP and have a lombardi 365 days from now.  This is apparently what happens when you have a QB that you expect to win it all.  You have to pay him like he's going to win it all, or you'll pay him after he's won it all.  He knows the Bengals won't play hardball with him or let him walk.  The only think stopping Burrow from getting a Watson-style deal is Burrow.

The guy is probably going to be our Michael Jordan, or Tom Brady...that is, the franchise wasn't championship caliber before he got here, and probably won't be after he leaves.  This is why we're just hoping he decides he's going to make his money after his career is over here.