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(04-17-2023, 09:36 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: He is on the final year of a 4yr/$6m rookie contract. That's why it is starting out so low. 1 year of his extremely cheap rookie contract and 5 years of extension. True guaranteed money is $110m, guaranteed at signing. It's the 3rd most in the NFL.
Burrow's cap hit this year alone as a 1st overall pick ($11.5m) is almost twice that of Hurt's entire 4 year rookie contract, and depending on how they do the extension, Burrow also has a $29.5m 5th year option. So while it takes a little bit to ramp up to the big cap hits, Burrow will start with a much higher floor of cap hits.
The first year of the deal will be 2024 and that is only 13m those numbers seem off... if those are the numbers for the first 4 years I agree with Au that it might be a huge incentive laden deal.
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So it says $179 million guaranteed, but also the low cap numbers:
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(04-17-2023, 09:53 PM)Synric Wrote: The first year of the deal will be 2024 and that is only 13m those numbers seem off... if those are the numbers for the first 4 years I agree with Au that it might be a huge incentive laden deal.
You're right. That would leave the final two years to be like ~$90m each. Huh.
I guess the Eagles GM is just really really REALLY good at manipulating the cap. Maybe just an enormous cap hit at the end that they're planning on lowering by spreading it out over the next future extension? (Or have it absolutely just blow up their team for a year.) A very high risk game of kick-the-can. I guess if it works, who cares, though. Super Bowl(s) are worth any future pain.
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(04-17-2023, 05:02 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: It still is. The Hurts contract is $110m fully guaranteed at signing, less than half of Watson's $230m.
Adam Schefter is reporting Hurts got $179 million guaranteed. If Hurts got that much, then Watson's $230 million guaranteed, once considered a big outlier, may not be out of reach for Burrow. I wonder how much these QB contracts caught the Bengals front office off guard.
One CBS analyst, looking how the Hurts contract will impact Burrow, does think Burrow will leave money on the table so the Bengals can sign Higgins:
"As far his annual salary, Burrow faces a tough decision. He could certainly ask to be added to the short list of $50 million quarterbacks, but that would likely mean that the Bengals won't be able to retain Tee Higgins with Ja'Marr Chase's extension also upcoming. Burrow's appreciation for Higgins is well known, and it's likely that he will leave some money on the table if that means Higgins stays with him for the majority of his prime years. "
"Burrow's current calculated market value is six years with an average annual salary of $48.150 million, according to Spotrac. That seems like a fair contract for both the Bengals and Burrow, who could possibly take even less money if that means increasing his odds at winning a ring."
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/what-jalen-hurts-record-setting-extension-means-for-lamar-jackson-joe-burrow-and-justin-herbert/#:~:text=Hurts'%20five%2Dyear%2C%20%24255,and%20a%20no%20trade%20clause.
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(04-17-2023, 09:36 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: He is on the final year of a 4yr/$6m rookie contract. That's why it is starting out so low. 1 year of his extremely cheap rookie contract and 5 years of extension. True guaranteed money is $110m, guaranteed at signing. It's the 3rd most in the NFL.
Burrow's cap hit this year alone as a 1st overall pick ($11.5m) is almost twice that of Hurt's entire 4 year rookie contract, and depending on how they do the extension, Burrow also has a $29.5m 5th year option. So while it takes a little bit to ramp up to the big cap hits, Burrow will start with a much higher floor of cap hits.
Is the $110 confirmed or just Spotrac’s estimate? I saw it earlier being floated as the actual number but haven’t seen confirmation. I’ve also been told they think there may be void years on the back side to keep the numbers lower (Philly does it often). Even with his rookie year the low cap years the first two of new money are still surprisingly low.
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(04-17-2023, 10:21 PM)Nepa Wrote: Adam Schefter is reporting Hurts got $179 million guaranteed. If Hurts got that much, then Watson's $230 million guaranteed, once considered a big outlier, may not be out of reach for Burrow. I wonder how much these QB contracts caught the Bengals front office off guard.
One CBS analyst, looking how the Hurts contract will impact Burrow, does think Burrow will leave money on the table so the Bengals can sign Higgins:
"As far his annual salary, Burrow faces a tough decision. He could certainly ask to be added to the short list of $50 million quarterbacks, but that would likely mean that the Bengals won't be able to retain Tee Higgins with Ja'Marr Chase's extension also upcoming. Burrow's appreciation for Higgins is well known, and it's likely that he will leave some money on the table if that means Higgins stays with him for the majority of his prime years. "
"Burrow's current calculated market value is six years with an average annual salary of $48.150 million, according to Spotrac. That seems like a fair contract for both the Bengals and Burrow, who could possibly take even less money if that means increasing his odds at winning a ring."
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/what-jalen-hurts-record-setting-extension-means-for-lamar-jackson-joe-burrow-and-justin-herbert/#:~:text=Hurts'%20five%2Dyear%2C%20%24255,and%20a%20no%20trade%20clause.
Burrow will be the highest paid qb and make over Hurts AAV. That's how QB contracts work.
It would be shocking if he too less than Hurts.
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(04-17-2023, 10:21 PM)Nepa Wrote: Adam Schefter is reporting Hurts got $179 million guaranteed. If Hurts got that much, then Watson's $230 million guaranteed, once considered a big outlier, may not be out of reach for Burrow. I wonder how much these QB contracts caught the Bengals front office off guard.
One CBS analyst, looking how the Hurts contract will impact Burrow, does think Burrow will leave money on the table so the Bengals can sign Higgins:
"As far his annual salary, Burrow faces a tough decision. He could certainly ask to be added to the short list of $50 million quarterbacks, but that would likely mean that the Bengals won't be able to retain Tee Higgins with Ja'Marr Chase's extension also upcoming. Burrow's appreciation for Higgins is well known, and it's likely that he will leave some money on the table if that means Higgins stays with him for the majority of his prime years. "
"Burrow's current calculated market value is six years with an average annual salary of $48.150 million, according to Spotrac. That seems like a fair contract for both the Bengals and Burrow, who could possibly take even less money if that means increasing his odds at winning a ring."
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/what-jalen-hurts-record-setting-extension-means-for-lamar-jackson-joe-burrow-and-justin-herbert/#:~:text=Hurts'%20five%2Dyear%2C%20%24255,and%20a%20no%20trade%20clause.
The $179m isn't guaranteed at signing, so it's not true guarantees. Watson's is. Hurt's guaranteed at signing amount (aka TRULY guaranteed) is $110m. If they cut him tomorrow, he wouldn't see $179m, he'd see $110m. If Watson got cut the day after he signed his deal, he'd still see $230m.
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/initial-guaranteed/
^ That shows what the actual most important number is. Any other "guarantees" have conditions attached to getting them, which make them not true guarantees.
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(04-17-2023, 10:42 PM)Au165 Wrote: Is the $110 confirmed or just Spotrac’s estimate? I saw it earlier being floated as the actual number but haven’t seen confirmation. I’ve also been told they think there may be void years on the back side to keep the numbers lower (Philly does it often). Even with his rookie year the low cap years the first two of new money are still surprisingly low.
The $110m guaranteed at signing is confirmed as well as can possibly ever be confirmed.
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(04-17-2023, 10:50 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: The $110m guaranteed at signing is confirmed as well as can possibly ever be confirmed.
Gotcha I was out most the day. Will be interesting to see the full structure, I’m thinking two void years to get the cap hit that far under control.
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(04-17-2023, 10:43 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: Burrow will be the highest paid qb and make over Hurts AAV. That's how QB contracts work.
It would be shocking if he too less than Hurts.
I hope the Burrow has the insight that if he takes less than the amount he can command -- following the path of Brady, Michael Jordan, and Mahomes -- that he increases the chances of having a stronger team and more postseason success, can best keep players like Higgins on the team, and would be appreciated more by fans (increase popularity). In other words, can take less in contract money and make more by endorsements via enhanced popularity due to greater success and having a more appreciative fan base.
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(04-18-2023, 12:21 AM)Nepa Wrote: I hope the Burrow has the insight that if he takes less than the amount he can command -- following the path of Brady, Michael Jordan, and Mahomes -- that he increases the chances of having a stronger team and more postseason success, can best keep players like Higgins on the team, and would be appreciated more by fans (increase popularity). In other words, can take less in contract money and make more by endorsements via enhanced popularity due to greater success and having a more appreciative fan base.
Mahomes was the highest paid QB for 2 straight years when he signed his extension. Russell Wilson was the highest paid QB in the league at $35m/yr before Mahomes passed him with a $45m/yr deal. So Mahomes jumped the previous highest paid by $28.57%, completely resetting the top of the QB market. His team-friendly aspect was the length of the extension.
If Burrow took the Mahomes path, looking at Hurts being the current highest paid at $51m/yr, that means Burrow would sign a 10yr/$655.7m contract, or $65.57m/yr.
- - - - - - - -
Michael Jordan wasn't happy with his long term contract, and made the Bulls pay big to bring him back from baseball. He made $30m+ for two straight years for those final 2 rings with Chicago in a time when almost nobody was making $10m. It wasn't selflessness that he was making less for the first threepeat, it was a bad longterm contract that he outperformed but was stuck in.
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(04-17-2023, 10:21 PM)Nepa Wrote: Adam Schefter is reporting Hurts got $179 million guaranteed. If Hurts got that much, then Watson's $230 million guaranteed, once considered a big outlier, may not be out of reach for Burrow. I wonder how much these QB contracts caught the Bengals front office off guard.
One CBS analyst, looking how the Hurts contract will impact Burrow, does think Burrow will leave money on the table so the Bengals can sign Higgins:
"As far his annual salary, Burrow faces a tough decision. He could certainly ask to be added to the short list of $50 million quarterbacks, but that would likely mean that the Bengals won't be able to retain Tee Higgins with Ja'Marr Chase's extension also upcoming. Burrow's appreciation for Higgins is well known, and it's likely that he will leave some money on the table if that means Higgins stays with him for the majority of his prime years. "
"Burrow's current calculated market value is six years with an average annual salary of $48.150 million, according to Spotrac. That seems like a fair contract for both the Bengals and Burrow, who could possibly take even less money if that means increasing his odds at winning a ring."
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/what-jalen-hurts-record-setting-extension-means-for-lamar-jackson-joe-burrow-and-justin-herbert/#:~:text=Hurts'%20five%2Dyear%2C%20%24255,and%20a%20no%20trade%20clause.
Pretty sure the Bengals FO have been working on this for a year or two so I doubt it’s ‘caught them off guard’. Relax a bit it will be fine.
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(04-18-2023, 12:21 AM)Nepa Wrote: I hope the Burrow has the insight that if he takes less than the amount he can command -- following the path of Brady, Michael Jordan, and Mahomes -- that he increases the chances of having a stronger team and more postseason success, can best keep players like Higgins on the team, and would be appreciated more by fans (increase popularity). In other words, can take less in contract money and make more by endorsements via enhanced popularity due to greater success and having a more appreciative fan base.
The issue with this is that if Burrow is playing for post-career popularity and fame he might not want to play his entire career in Cincy. Sure, winning here will make him a hometown hero, but if he is really aiming for pop cultural superstardom he'd be better off reviving the Chicago Bears, or Dallas Cowboys, or New York Jets.
I don't think he's looking at his NFL career in this manner, but we have to acknowledge that if he's looking to make his bank off the field, being the face of one of those teams in Ohio isn't the best way to do it.
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(04-18-2023, 12:21 AM)Nepa Wrote: I hope the Burrow has the insight that if he takes less than the amount he can command -- following the path of Brady, Michael Jordan, and Mahomes -- that he increases the chances of having a stronger team and more postseason success, can best keep players like Higgins on the team, and would be appreciated more by fans (increase popularity). In other words, can take less in contract money and make more by endorsements via enhanced popularity due to greater success and having a more appreciative fan base.
The Union and Agents push players to take the most money. I doubt this will be any different.
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(04-18-2023, 11:10 AM)Nately120 Wrote: The issue with this is that if Burrow is playing for post-career popularity and fame he might not want to play his entire career in Cincy. Sure, winning here will make him a hometown hero, but if he is really aiming for pop cultural superstardom he'd be better off reviving the Chicago Bears, or Dallas Cowboys, or New York Jets.
I don't think he's looking at his NFL career in this manner, but we have to acknowledge that if he's looking to make his bank off the field, being the face of one of those teams in Ohio isn't the best way to do it.
If he keeps getting to Superbowls or AFCCG everyone will know his name. wont matter where hes playing
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(04-18-2023, 12:32 PM)XenoMorph Wrote: If he keeps getting to Superbowls or AFCCG everyone will know his name. wont matter where hes playing
As far as we football old timers on a message board during the offseason go, yes. But Joe Namath shows how winning even the slightest bit in the right markets can go a long way when it comes to national recognition.
Winning 1 SB in Chicago or New York or Dallas could go a long way IF Burrow is gunning on being some sort of pop culture icon, which I don't think he is. Joe Flacco was a SB MVP and he never lit up the media world. Even the Mannings, and Gronk, and Mahommes get their national spotlight in commercials where they are played like idiots. I just don't see Burrow being the dumbass in a commercial for insurance, and even if he does stuff like that I don't think it's going to validate or justify making QB money like he's Daniel Jones.
Just my 2 cents. If Burrow wants to be a celebrity he needs to start being an off-the field distraction now, because he can't just start being an fame ***** once he's 41 and out of the game, 4+ SBs or not.
I'd rather we just pay Burrow whatever he wants and let him keep eating/breathing/crapping football 24/7 and take my chances with less cap room than hope that he's already thinking today about making commercials in 2035.
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Hurts actually did worse then what Lamar was offered. Outside of the annual average, Burrow may be looking more at what Lamar was offered.
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2023/04/18/comparing-the-rejected-lamar-jackson-offer-and-the-accepted-jalen-hurts-deal/
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(04-17-2023, 10:44 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: The $179m isn't guaranteed at signing, so it's not true guarantees. Watson's is. Hurt's guaranteed at signing amount (aka TRULY guaranteed) is $110m. If they cut him tomorrow, he wouldn't see $179m, he'd see $110m. If Watson got cut the day after he signed his deal, he'd still see $230m.
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/initial-guaranteed/
^ That shows what the actual most important number is. Any other "guarantees" have conditions attached to getting them, which make them not true guarantees.
Holy shit, the Stains deal for Watson is even worse than I thought...
WTF? And for a dude with his off the field problems? 
Congrats to Hurts though, he is a good young QB. Expecting Burrow to be paid a bit more, we will see.
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(04-18-2023, 04:27 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Holy shit, the Stains deal for Watson is even worse than I thought...
WTF? And for a dude with his off the field problems?
Congrats to Hurts though, he is a good young QB. Expecting Burrow to be paid a bit more, we will see.
The Watson deal is insane, but the Browns were so terrified of giving Mayfield $35+ million per year that they went way overboard to get a better QB. It was truly a one-time perfect storm situation. The Browns watched teams like the Rams get stuck giving a mediocre QB like Goff a huge contract and then having to move heaven and earth to get a top tier QB in Stafford, which paid off. They didn't want to pay Mayfield but were worried they'd have to without having a reason to move off of a QB who won their only playoff game in 20+ years. Then Mayfield wants out just because the Browns were looking into Watson, and Watson tells the Browns "No thanks" but he's really saying "You're desperate now, so go way overboard and I'll be your QB" and they went all in.
A lot of things had to fall in place, there. Any Mayfield mucked things up himself by demanding a trade, because he could have filled in on that team and earned a decent sized "FU" contract elsewhere by playing decent football on a better and more familiar roster...bonus points that Watson came off of his suspension and looked like crap. Instead, Mayfield wants out for the sake of wanting out and ends up flopping in Carolina. Everyone involved just stuffed this whole thing up, except Jacoby Brisset
Academically, I can sort of get why the Browns did it...this is what teams who spend decades in QB hell do. Instead of handing out desperate contracts to guys like Ryan Fitzpatrick or Matt Flynn like other teams, they just saved it all up for one gigantic terrible contract.
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