PFF’s new QB rankings

[Soonerpeace]

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-quarterback-rankings-all-32-starters-2023-nfl-season

Believe Joe was #2 in Feb. But they basically said Allen and Burrow are both 2.
3. JOE BURROW, CINCINNATI BENGALS

Burrow has led the league in PFF passing grade (by fractions) in each of the past two regular seasons. He has shown that, while everybody might be chasing special athletes at the position, just putting the ball in the right place at the right time is still capable of transformative play at the position. He has a career 77.1% adjusted completion rate, and his turnover-worthy play rate has gone down in each of his NFL seasons.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

Burrow is #2 over Allen after they finally played against each other IMHO.

[*ochocincos*]

(05-23-2023, 02:17 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-quarterback-rankings-all-32-starters-2023-nfl-season

Believe Joe was #2 in Feb. But they basically said Allen and Burrow are both 2.
3. JOE BURROW, CINCINNATI BENGALS

Burrow has led the league in PFF passing grade (by fractions) in each of the past two regular seasons. He has shown that, while everybody might be chasing special athletes at the position, just putting the ball in the right place at the right time is still capable of transformative play at the position. He has a career 77.1% adjusted completion rate, and his turnover-worthy play rate has gone down in each of his NFL seasons.

I think it's definitely fair to have Mahomes #1, although Allen might be more debatable as being ahead of Burrow.
When you factor in the running, I think it can be an easier sell.

Passing stats over the past two regular seasons:
Burrow (32 games) - 69.3% completion for 9086 passing yards, 69 TDs, 26 INTs
Allen (33 games) - 63.3% completion for 8690 passing yards, 71 TDs, 29 INTs

Rushing stats over the past two regular seasons:
Burrow - 115 attempts for 375 rushing yards, 7 TDs
Allen - 246 attempts for 1525 rushing yards, 13 TDs

Total pass+rush:
Burrow - 9461 yards, 76 TDs
Allen - 10215 yards, 84 TDs

Comparing Mahomes (34 games) - 10089 pYards + 739 ruYards = 10828 yards, 84 total TDs, 25 INTs

[SunsetBengal]

Let that be the impetus for Burrow to play better than ever, and bring home the Lombardi!

[WeezyBengal]

I truly don't understand how people can continue to rank Josh Allen as a top 5 QB.

Lead the league in INTs last year.
Lead the league in fumbles last year.
6th in yards per game.
8th in rating.

The guy almost accounted for as many turnovers as TDs last year.

Yes he will throw and run for TDs and he can get you some yards on the ground...but I am just so over this guy being completely overrated. He's a bonehead.

[WeezyBengal]

(05-23-2023, 02:40 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I think it's definitely fair to have Mahomes #1, although Allen might be more debatable as being ahead of Burrow.
When you factor in the running, I think it can be an easier sell.

Passing stats over the past two regular seasons:
Burrow (32 games) - 69.3% completion for 9086 passing yards, 69 TDs, 26 INTs
Allen (33 games) - 63.3% completion for 8690 passing yards, 71 TDs, 29 INTs

Rushing stats over the past two regular seasons:
Burrow - 115 attempts for 375 rushing yards, 7 TDs
Allen - 246 attempts for 1525 rushing yards, 13 TDs

Total pass+rush:
Burrow - 9461 yards, 76 TDs
Allen - 10215 yards, 84 TDs

Comparing Mahomes (34 games) - 10089 pYards + 739 ruYards = 10828 yards, 84 total TDs, 25 INTs

Burrow Super Bowl and AFC Championship game apperance. Beat Allen head to head. 

Also, this is Allens 6th year in the league compared to Burrow's 4th - that matters to an extent. 

[KillerGoose]

(05-23-2023, 03:38 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: I truly don't understand how people can continue to rank Josh Allen as a top 5 QB.

Lead the league in INTs last year.
6th in yards per game.
8th in rating.

Yes he will throw and run for TDs and he can get you some yards on the ground...but I am just so over this guy being completely overrated. He's a bonehead.

I can understand not having him #2, I don't either, but to argue he isn't even in the top five is a pretty hot take. You're doing a lot of hand waving there with the "yeah yeah, he gets some yards and TDs on the ground" when he is producing an additional ~700 yards and 7 TDs per season on great efficiency. Since Allen has acclimated to the NFL, his average season is ~5,000 total yards with 41 TDs combined. He consistently ranks in the top five in EPA per dropback.

Dude is a legit top five guy. I can't think of five QBs better than him. 

[WeezyBengal]

(05-23-2023, 03:57 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: I can understand not having him #2, I don't either, but to argue he isn't even in the top five is a pretty hot take. You're doing a lot of hand waving there with the "yeah yeah, he gets some yards and TDs on the ground" when he is producing an additional ~700 yards and 7 TDs per season on great efficiency. Since Allen has acclimated to the NFL, his average season is ~5,000 total yards with 41 TDs combined. He consistently ranks in the top five in EPA per dropback.

Dude is a legit top five guy. I can't think of five QBs better than him. 

Is getting "more yards on the ground" more valuable than turnovers? He turns the ball over at a very high clip - both INTs and fumbles. It'd be interesting to see how that compares to the value he adds getting yards with his legs. 

[*pally*]

(05-23-2023, 03:38 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: I truly don't understand how people can continue to rank Josh Allen as a top 5 QB.

Lead the league in INTs last year.
Lead the league in fumbles last year.
6th in yards per game.
8th in rating.

The guy almost accounted for as many turnovers as TDs last year.

Yes he will throw and run for TDs and he can get you some yards on the ground...but I am just so over this guy being completely overrated. He's a bonehead.

it is easy when you take into account him injuring his throwing elbow (partially torn ulnar collateral ligament) in early Nov.  

[KillerGoose]

(05-23-2023, 04:07 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: Is getting "more yards on the ground" more valuable than turnovers? He turns the ball over at a very high clip - both INTs and fumbles. It'd be interesting to see how that compares to the value he adds getting yards with his legs. 

I think the best way to calculate this would be to use EPA per dropback and the answer is yes. It all depends on where the fumbles occur, of course. Not all turnovers are equal just like not all TDs are equal. Combining both rushing and passing together, Josh Allen ranked #2 in EPA per dropback last season, Burrow was #5. Allen ranked #8 in 2021, Burrow was #7. In 2020, Allen ranked #4. 

Without a further dive, I am not positive why Allen is ranked so highly despite the turnovers. My initial guess is that his turnovers aren't that costly I.E. he isn't throwing a bunch of interceptions near his own endzone and offensively, he is generating big, chunk plays and scoring on them both in the air and on the ground. Allen, by EPA per attempt, was the #1 rusher last season. Above Fields, Hurts, and all RBs.

[*ochocincos*]

(05-23-2023, 03:41 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: Burrow Super Bowl and AFC Championship game apperance. Beat Allen head to head. 

Also, this is Allens 6th year in the league compared to Burrow's 4th - that matters to an extent. 

Burrow did not beat Allen head to head.
The Bengals beat the Bills.
It was a full team effort.

If anything, Burrow beat the Bills defense better than Allen beat the Bengals defense.

Personally, I feel comparing playoff stats is a bit more unfair because it's not just the QB vs QB but instead team vs team, and thus teams are going to have (way) more games played than others. With that said...

Josh Allen the past two seasons in playoffs (4 games):
67% completion for 1253 passing yards, 12 TDs, 3 INTs. Another 180-1 for rushing.
313 passing YPG, 3.0 TD/G average

Joe Burrow past two seasons in playoffs (7 games):
67% completion for 1826 passing yards, 9 TDs, 4 INTs. Another 101-1 for rushing.
260 passing YPG, 1.28 TD/G average

The only reason I am sharing these is I think one can make an argument by looking at these stats that even though the Bills didn't advance as far as the Bengals in the postseason both years, Josh Allen played pretty damn well.

As for Burrow's 4th year vs Allen's 6th...there's a reason Allen wasn't #1 overall, as it was known he was definitely a project coming out of college.
Dude had things to work on.
Burrow was NFL-ready and expected to be good right from the get-go.

Honestly, Allen turned out (way) better than I expected he would. I did not like him as a prospect. I thought accuracy was something that he would never improve much on, having just a 56% completion at Wyoming, and also his first couple seasons in the NFL. But he proved me and others wrong, showing he could finally get it right after working at it for his first two seasons. Dude deserves some credit and respect for what he's been able to do these past few years.

[*Synric*]

Because of how Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes play everyone thinks they are a more aggressive passer than Joe Burrow and it's not true.

[KillerGoose]

(05-23-2023, 04:36 PM)Synric Wrote: Because of how Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes play everyone thinks they are a more aggressive passer than Joe Burrow and it's not true.

I mentioned this somewhere earlier on the board, but earlier this off-season I started a project where I ranked each starting QB's arm strength by calculating ball velocity (MPH) on a large sample of their pass attempts, using the max velocity as the datum used to rank. I scrapped it for a couple of reasons, but one thing I found out before doing so was not only how aggressive Burrow is, but he doesn't rifle the ball in to be aggressive. His timing and ball placement is so superb. Most of the tight window passes I sampled of his were around 47-48 MPH. To put that into perspective, his hardest ball I found was 56 MPH. Mahomes threw one 61 MPH on a slant near the goalline. So, a relatively gentle pass. They were typically so well placed that he didn't need to dig his cleats in and sling it. 

[*ochocincos*]

(05-23-2023, 04:42 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: I mentioned this somewhere earlier on the board, but earlier this off-season I started a project where I ranked each starting QB's arm strength by calculating ball velocity (MPH) on a large sample of their pass attempts, using the max velocity as the datum used to rank. I scrapped it for a couple of reasons, but one thing I found out before doing so was not only how aggressive Burrow is, but he doesn't rifle the ball in to be aggressive. His timing and ball placement is so superb. Most of the tight window passes I sampled of his were around 47-48 MPH. To put that into perspective, his hardest ball I found was 56 MPH. Mahomes threw one 61 MPH on a slant near the goalline. So, a relatively gentle pass. They were typically so well placed that he didn't need to dig his cleats in and sling it. 

One of the things that used to irritate me about Carson Palmer was how hard he would throw the ball on a short route.
Like come on, make it a bit easier for the receiver to catch sometimes.
Can't always blame the catcher if you're throwing the ball so damn fast in such a short distance all the time.

[BFritz21]

(05-23-2023, 02:40 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I think it's definitely fair to have Mahomes #1, although Allen might be more debatable as being ahead of Burrow.
When you factor in the running, I think it can be an easier sell.

Passing stats over the past two regular seasons:
Burrow (32 games) - 69.3% completion for 9086 passing yards, 69 TDs, 26 INTs
Allen (33 games) - 63.3% completion for 8690 passing yards, 71 TDs, 29 INTs

Rushing stats over the past two regular seasons:
Burrow - 115 attempts for 375 rushing yards, 7 TDs
Allen - 246 attempts for 1525 rushing yards, 13 TDs

Total pass+rush:
Burrow - 9461 yards, 76 TDs
Allen - 10215 yards, 84 TDs

Comparing Mahomes (34 games) - 10089 pYards + 739 ruYards = 10828 yards, 84 total TDs, 25 INTs

I think what a lot of people are overlooking is just how bad our line has been compared to the Bills' o-line.

Burrow was among the least amount of time to throw from the pocket at 2.2 seconds and Allen had 2.5 seconds, which may not seem like a lot, but the NFL is bang-bang and 2.2 seconds to throw is ranked something like 50th. 

If our line protects Burrow even at an average rate, he'll be the top quarterback in the league........ EASY.

[*bfine32*]

I remember when Andy's Army threw out head=to-head and big game wins when pimping him. I'm glad we know have JB and folks are beginning to realize those things are kinda important.

[Soonerpeace]

(05-23-2023, 05:00 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: I think what a lot of people are overlooking is just how bad our line has been compared to the Bills' o-line.

Burrow was among the least amount of time to throw from the pocket at 2.2 seconds and Allen had 2.5 seconds, which may not seem like a lot, but the NFL is bang-bang and 2.2 seconds to throw is ranked something like 50th. 

If our line protects Burrow even at an average rate, he'll be the top quarterback in the league........ bEASY.

Absolutely. And I think if the OL can improve to top 10-12 it’s going to not win us many more games so much. But I think it’ll make the offense near the top of the league. It’ll make our offense less predictable. A much better run game will pay huge dividends. What an improved OL will do most is make more decisive wins. Less games down to the wire. Even more explosiveness. The end result Burrow getting more recognition.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

Yes, with the poor OL's Burrow has had in front of him it is amazing his stats look as good as they do compared to Allen's.

Also, Allen turns the ball over a lot like Weezy said. Not good. But he is still the 3rd ranked QB in the NFL IMO.

[BFritz21]

(05-23-2023, 05:38 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: Absolutely. And I think if the OL can improve to top 10-12 it’s going to not win us many more games so much. But I think it’ll make the offense near the top of the league. It’ll make our offense less predictable. A much better run game will pay huge dividends. What an improved OL will do most is make more decisive wins. Less games down to the wire. Even more explosiveness. The end result Burrow getting more recognition.

I think it will win us a lot more games because we've been near a Super Bowl victory and then appearance the last two years with Burrow not having time.

The line improving also helps the run game, which in turn helps the pass and Burrow even said as much (that no one can beat us when we run it well) to Mixon on the sideline during a game.

I think we're very tough to beat if we can give Burrow time to pick apart defenses.

[Soonerpeace]

(05-23-2023, 08:01 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: I think it will win us a lot more games because we've been near a Super Bowl victory and then appearance the last two years with Burrow not having time.

The line improving also helps the run game, which in turn helps the pass and Burrow even said as much (that no one can beat us when we run it well) to Mixon on the sideline during a game.

I think we're very tough to beat if we can give Burrow time to pick apart defenses.

Agree. Well we were 12-4 and I think would have been 13-4. That’s tough to better. But a lot more? That’d be great.