Reds July 2023 thread

[SunsetBengal]

(07-04-2023, 02:44 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: They've scored 8 runs and are winning, so I can't complain too much but I still don't understand Bell's over-obsession with splits.

Why take a guy who is...
1st in AVG
2nd in OBP
1st in SB
... on the team and take him out of leadoff and move him to 8th in order to put Kevin Newman at leadoff? Looking purely at the side a guy bats from and ignoring the real question of if he's a good batter or not. Heck, Friedl was hitting .406 this year against LHP, so it's not even like he's struggling. I know Newman has good splits, but not enough that I want to give him more PAs at the cost of giving Friedl less.

I gotta say that before this season began, I completely thought that the Reds were going to flounder and just sell off any viable prospects.  However, seeing how this season is playing out, as I am guessing that nearly no one had the Reds in the division lead at this point;  I'm going to come forward and say that the success is either the complete result of luck, or just maybe the management realized what they had growing in prospects and things are just going as planned.

Either way, as a Reds fan I am just surprised and impressed by the way this team shows resolve and is getting it done at the plate.  If the coaches decide to pull the lead off hitter and move him to the 8 slot, who am I to second guess their strategy?

[*bengalfan74*]

3 things:

1. That pitcher did way better than I thought he would. Perhaps they have something there?

2. I wish they had those sissy stick sliding gloves shoved up their bleeps. To many opposing infielders are blocking the plate with their feet on those head first slides. Start going in feet first and take them ankles out with the cleats and they'll stop that.

3. Why is it a rule that all Reds batters never take the bat off their shoulder on the first pitch? The announcers even stated that their pitcher had thrown 14 first pitch strikes out of 15. Swing the damn bat!!

Oh and 4. So glad to see DLC taking some swings that the fans don't feel a breeze off of in the upper deck. 4 hit day

Oh and 5. Good to see Senzel with the HR

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

(07-04-2023, 03:31 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: 3 things:

1. That pitcher did way better than I thought he would. Perhaps they have something there?

2. I wish they had those sissy stick sliding gloves shoved up their bleeps. To many opposing infielders are blocking the plate with their feet on those head first slides. Start going in feet first and take them ankles out with the cleats and they'll stop that.

3. Why is it a rule that all Reds batters never take the bat off their shoulder on the first pitch? The announcers even stated that their pitcher had thrown 14 first pitch strikes out of 15. Swing the damn bat!!

Oh and 4. So glad to see DLC taking some swings that the fans don't feel a breeze off of in the upper deck. 4 hit day

Oh and 5. Good to see Senzel with the HR

Geez, Steer goes 4 for 4 and can't get any love? That guy gets no respect around here.

Just kidding. You've been throwing him props more than most.

I'm not too concerned about DLC's mini slump. I saw or heard a stat a few days ago showing that he has faced the fewest percentage of fastballs per at bat than any hitter in MLB.

[CJD]

(07-04-2023, 04:14 PM)Forever Spinning Vinyl Wrote: Geez, Steer goes 4 for 4 and can't get any love? That guy gets no respect around here.

Just kidding. You've been throwing him props more than most.

I'm not too concerned about DLC's mini slump. I saw or heard a stat a few days ago showing that he has faced the fewest percentage of fastballs per at bat than any hitter in MLB.

Steer is such a good player that it has become completely normalized in the fan base haha. He doesn't look like a rookie, play like a rookie or behave like a rookie, so he does not garner as much attention as the other rookies.

He takes controlled swings, he is a master of the strike zone. He has a 20.8% chase rate in 2023, the MLB average is 28.4%. His zone contact rate is above MLB average, his chase contact rate is above MLB average, his Whiff % is below MLB average (good in this case), and his swing percentages (both zone and general) are below MLB average. He is extremely selective with what pitches he swings at and which ones he does not, all while maintaining a below average K rate and an above average walk rate.

He even goes opposite field more than the MLB average, which is a good sign of a batter who can choose where the ball goes based on his swing.

He isn't flashy on the base paths with stretching singles into doubles or running out grounders like EDLC does (although his speed is solidly above average at 78% percentile) and he isn't playing a flashy defensive position like McLain (his arm is actually pretty weak all things considered), but he's consistently getting on base and giving good at bats. 

He's second on the team among position players with 1.8 WAR (behind Friedl), second in slugging and OPS (Behind McLain), 1st in OBP, 3rd in average (behind Friedl and McLain and technically Elly, but still a small sample size), 1st in walks, 1st in RBI, 1st in total bags, 1st in HRs, 1st in 2Bs, 1st in hits, and 2nd in runs scored (behind India).

As far as I'm concerned, he's the MVP of the team, with the only person in competition being McLain.

It's a shame that Corbin is having an NL MVP like season over in Arizona because, if it were any other year, I think McLain or Steer would run away with the NL rookie of the year award.

It's just Elly is more fun to track on a daily basis because he's so volatile haha.

[*bengalfan74*]

(07-04-2023, 05:46 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Steer is such a good player that it has become completely normalized in the fan base haha. He doesn't look like a rookie, play like a rookie or behave like a rookie, so he does not garner as much attention as the other rookies.

Right
Steer, of all the recent talent, looks way more comfortable, way more polished, way more confident at the plate than any of them. He looks like an 8 year veteran.
McClain is awesome but he still looks like a rookie, at times. Same with DLC, and Friedl. 
You very rarely see Steer swing at a pitch way out of the stike zone. He rarely looks confused or unsure. And I agree that one of the reasons why he's kinda disappeared in the soup of hot rookies and young players.

[cinci4life]

Damn worthless Cubs at it again. They scored 2 in the 8th to go up 6-2 but then gave up 2 in the 8th and 9th and now going to extras tied 6-6.

[*rfaulk34*]

(07-03-2023, 11:56 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: DLC turns down HR derby and I'm glad

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/elly-de-la-cruz-addresses-reason-for-declining-home-run-derby-invite/ar-AA1do7wk?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=578d74c52a2d458a9990c9b7867522d9&ei=21

I like hearing that and this...

“I’m not worried about what people think about us. At the end of the day, we’re just having fun together playing the game that we love, playing with heart, playing with passion," India said. "We have one goal in mind: to make it to the end and win the ring.”

[*rfaulk34*]

(07-04-2023, 03:20 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: I gotta say that before this season began, I completely thought that the Reds were going to flounder and just sell off any viable prospects.  However, seeing how this season is playing out, as I am guessing that nearly no one had the Reds in the division lead at this point;  I'm going to come forward and say that the success is either the complete result of luck, or just maybe the management realized what they had growing in prospects and things are just going as planned.

Either way, as a Reds fan I am just surprised and impressed by the way this team shows resolve and is getting it done at the plate.  If the coaches decide to pull the lead off hitter and move him to the 8 slot, who am I to second guess their strategy?

Yep. I haven't really been invested in the Reds much in the last decade, for the most part. Check in here and there but just been ignoring them since it didn't seem the FO had any idea what they were doing. These young guys are exciting and fun to watch. I've been back in this year, paying closer attention, then diving in with both feet when EDLC came on board. It's just been so much fun to watch and i'm enjoying the ride, regardless of decisions being made. 

[*rfaulk34*]

(07-04-2023, 04:14 PM)Forever Spinning Vinyl Wrote: Geez, Steer goes 4 for 4 and can't get any love? That guy gets no respect around here.

Just kidding. You've been throwing him props more than most.

I'm not too concerned about DLC's mini slump. I saw or heard a stat a few days ago showing that he has faced the fewest percentage of fastballs per at bat than any hitter in MLB.

As young as he is, that kid has really impressed me with how he's been able to hit the bendy ones. Hit 4 tough ones today for singles and it's funny to see how hard outfielders run to the ball just to keep him from ending up on 2nd base. 

[cinci4life]

Cubs win 7-6 on a fly ball out to left and runner thrown out at home tagging up for the last out. Reds 1 game up.

[CJD]

(07-04-2023, 03:20 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: I gotta say that before this season began, I completely thought that the Reds were going to flounder and just sell off any viable prospects.  However, seeing how this season is playing out, as I am guessing that nearly no one had the Reds in the division lead at this point;  I'm going to come forward and say that the success is either the complete result of luck, or just maybe the management realized what they had growing in prospects and things are just going as planned.

Either way, as a Reds fan I am just surprised and impressed by the way this team shows resolve and is getting it done at the plate.  If the coaches decide to pull the lead off hitter and move him to the 8 slot, who am I to second guess their strategy?

I've tracked the Reds this whole time that they've been bad and, basically, it's the latter. There's luck involved, undoubtedly, as there always is when it involves prospects. But the Reds have made smart trade after smart trade in the lead up to this rebuild, as well as acquiring players via the draft and international free agency and paying above slot in both cases.

Baseball is a very strange sport because the means of acquiring talent are so varied. I mentioned paying above slot. Basically, the draft comes down to three options:
1. draft a high school player
2. draft a college player who has no eligibility left
3. draft a college player who has eligibility left.

When drafting high school players and college players who have eligibility left, there is always a chance that that player just...decides not to sign with you. If that is the case, they can either go to college or continue in college as if they had not been drafted. If you draft a player and they don't sign, you get a compensatory pick in the next draft, but it's still a goal not to do that if possible. 

One way of luring those players into signing is to offer them money above their slot value. Much like the NFL draft, each draft position has a standard price. The difference in the MLB draft is that you can choose to offer a player more than that slot price if you believe they are leaning towards staying/going to college. The Reds have made a habit out of signing their draft picks above their slot. They did it with Hunter Greene, who was a high school phenom at the time, as well as Cam Collier, who fell in the draft because he was a JUCO player who could go to college if he didn't get drafted as high as he wanted. Matt McLain was a player who was drafted in the first round out of high school, decided to go to college and then was drafted by the Reds 3 years later, above slot price.
They recently drafted McLain, India, Abbott, Greene, Lodolo, Stephenson, Fairchild, and Senzel with first or second round picks in the past ~8 drafts (since you're drafting high schoolers, they often take time in the minors).
 
They had a few good hits on lower round players like Graham Ashcraft and Alexis Diaz as well.

They were able to sign TJ Friedl after the draft because, somehow, no one knew he was actually draft eligible. We gave him the biggest bonus ever given to an undrafted free agent (super weird story, but interesting).

The other main avenue for talent acquisition is via international free agency. This is where teams sign players from several Latin American and Asian countries whose players are not allowed to enter the MLB draft. The Reds have always been fairly big players in the international free agent market, especially relative to their overall salary.  

In 2016, the Reds actually intentionally spent more than they were allowed to because they signed so many players (this resulted in a penalty to how much they were allowed to use in the following international signing period). They signed Vladimir Gutierrez, Alfredo Rodriguez and Jose Barrero to contracts exceeding $4M each, well above their allotted pool. But, in a way, that just shows that the Reds see huge value in this avenue of talent acquisition. 

They have plucked quite a few high profile players over the years, including Johnny Cueto in 2004, Aroldis Chapman in 2010, Raisel Iglesias in 2014, Elly De La Cruz in 2018, Shogo Akiyama in 2020 and, in more recent years, Ricardo Cabrera in 2022 and Alfredo Duno in 2023, both of whom were top 3 international prospects that the Reds went out and signed. 

The major downside of the international free agent market, as we saw with the 2016 signing period where the three major players they signed did not end up working out, is that a lot of these players are teenagers, so there's a huge development curve and a lot of them end up not working out just because of how much projection teenagers have going into the MLB. Jose Barrero is a great example of a teenage free agent who had all the talent in the world, but just cannot put it together in the majors.

Elly De La Cruz is the obvious addition from this group in recent history and what a hit it was. The bonus of signing teenagers is that sometimes they just keep growing and getting stronger, and you end up with a top prospect that no one saw coming.

Finally, the Reds have made some brilliant trades. I am not going to go over all of them because that's a very long list, but a few years ago, they traded for Sonny Gray from the Yankees, who they got relatively cheap because he was struggling in NY. He rebuilt his career in Cincy, then we flipped him for a very promising pitching prospect. We also traded Suarez and Winker, two guys who never really lived up to their potential for three pitchers and an outfielder. After that, they traded Tyler Mahle, a decent #4 or #5 starting pitcher, for 2 infield prospects and a pitcher. The pitcher they acquired in the Mahle trade was alter traded as part of a package to get Will Benson. Then, finally, they traded Luis Castillo (who they got from the Marlins years ago for practically nothing) for 2 shortstops and 2 pitchers. 

All told, those trades resulted in the arrival of Spencer Steer, Brandon Williamson, Will Benson and Jake Fraley on the current roster, as well as 3 of our top 5 prospects that are on their way here in Noelvi Marte, Connor Phillips and Christian Encarnacion Strand. 

Edwin Arroyo and Chase Petty are also coming from these trades, but they are still a few years away.

They've traded away a lot of talent in the last few years, but the returns have been great and the draft picks have been hitting like crazy. Hats off to the development team because they basically did no wrong in the last 7 years. It just took a while for it all to materialize. But it finally has. And all at the same time, which is incredible and how you build a winner when you aren't a 300 million dollar team like the Mets or Yankees.

[Nicomo Cosca]

Elly De La Cruz is the first player age 21 or younger to have two 4-hit games within his first 25 MLB games since Luis Rivas in 2000-01.

He is the first player age 21 or younger with 4 hits on the #4thofJuly since Bobby Doerr (BOS) in 1939. pic.twitter.com/QFScXWfIDW

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) July 4, 2023

[guyofthetiger]

This team is bringing back memories of the Big Red Machine in the 70's. I was a teenager back then and going to the ballpark was exciting. You always thought the team could come back at any deficit. And often they did.

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

(07-05-2023, 01:14 AM)guyofthetiger Wrote: This team is bringing back memories of the Big Red Machine in the 70's. I was a teenager back then and going to the ballpark was exciting. You always thought the team could come back at any deficit. And often they did.

I saw someone refer to them as The New Red Machine.

I like it. I'd prefer that they have their own identity, but that's a pretty cool nod to the past.

[*bengalfan74*]

(07-05-2023, 07:22 AM)Forever Spinning Vinyl Wrote: I saw someone refer to them as The New Red Machine.

I like it. I'd prefer that they have their own identity, but that's a pretty cool nod to the past.

I like it 

[TecmoBengals]

(07-05-2023, 07:22 AM)Forever Spinning Vinyl Wrote: I saw someone refer to them as The New Red Machine.

I like it. I'd prefer that they have their own identity, but that's a pretty cool nod to the past.

The bold is my take. Let them be the Viking helmet, fun loving guys they want to be.

[*bengalfan74*]

Really need old Ashcraft again tonight. We need these games because next 19 are pretty rough.

3 @ Brewers
All Star break
3 @ home vs. Brewers
4 @ home vs. Giants who aren't horrible
3 @ home vs. Diamondbacks, top shelf team
3 on road vs. Brewers again
Then 3 @ Dodgers

[cinci4life]

Seems like the crap Ashcraft tonight. Getting lucky so far though.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

5 hits, 2 walks, 1 hbp, and 1wp in 3ip and yet only 1 run allowed is a minor miracle.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

Just absolutely stupid by India.