Reds July 2023 thread

[cinci4life]

Looking like the first shutout since June 8.

[cinci4life]

(07-09-2023, 04:53 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: McLain bails India out (brutal bobble on the error) with the double play.

India just redeemed himself to keep it at 1-0. Get a damn run somehow now!

[Nicomo Cosca]

A couple great plays by DLC and India to get out of that without giving up a single run.

[Nicomo Cosca]

Well that sucked.

[cinci4life]

Brutal loss. Wasted a great day from Lively whose only real mistake was giving up the only RBI hit to a sub .200 hitter. Really let this one slip through their hands. At least they stay in first.

[Nicomo Cosca]

Brewers have won 18 of 26 meetings dating back to last season.#Reds

— LanceMcAlister (@LanceMcAlister) July 9, 2023

Obvious statement but they really need to take the series at home after the break.

[*bengalfan74*]

Well, the O was bound to have a clunker at some point. Now lets rest up and come out strong at home vs. these same Brewers.

[cinci4life]

Reds first round pick is Rhett Lowder RHP from Wake Forest.

[*bengalfan74*]

(07-09-2023, 08:45 PM)cinci4life Wrote: Reds first round pick is Rhett Lowder RHP from Wake Forest.

Sounds like he's got potential and we need pitching, to say the least.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/better-know-a-draft-prospect-rhett-lowder/ar-AA1dBxhl

[guyofthetiger]

Glad to see we are still in first place at the break. Looking forward to the rest of the season. Hoping the injury bug stays away.

[CJD]

4 straight days of no Reds games is going to be rough.

[*bengalfan74*]

(07-10-2023, 10:24 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: 4 straight days of no Reds games is going to be rough.

Yep

Gonna hafta find some old games on youtube

[grampahol]

Maybe next season the ASG will feature a stealing home derby..  I can't remember the last Reds player to steal home..

[*bengalfan74*]

(07-10-2023, 11:18 AM)grampahol Wrote: Maybe next season the ASG will feature a stealing home derby..  I can't remember the last Reds player to steal home..

I'd be willing to bet we'll have more players in the ASG next season. 

[CJD]

(07-10-2023, 11:18 AM)grampahol Wrote: Maybe next season the ASG will feature a stealing home derby..  I can't remember the last Reds player to steal home..

This is a compilation of "stealing home" plays and the Reds are featured in it twice.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wdahb4ioRfw

One is on a Brandon Phillips sacrifice bunt, 4:00 into the video. Guy on first base and Billy Hamilton is on third base, Phillips bunts to advance the runner to 2nd base. They throw him out and Hamilton, on a delay, runs home.

I don't think that's a true stolen base, more like a delayed reaction to the sacrifice, so that may be a technicality.

The other is Brandon Phillips on third base, 4:45 into the video. It looks like they attempted to do a suicide squeeze but the batter misses the ball. Then, they throw down to third base to pick Phillips off, and he just runs home and beats the throw back to the plate.

I wouldn't consider that a true stolen base either, as he was being picked off and just got away with it because of a bad throw by the third baseman.

So maybe this is the first "real" stolen home base in recent Reds history :)

[Nicomo Cosca]

Elly De La Cruz was on our flight this morning.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(07-10-2023, 05:16 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Elly De La Cruz was on our flight this morning.

Very cool.

Makes me feel old that a MLB player is young enough to be in a generation that has childhood nostalgia for Bratz, though. Lol


- - - - -
(Also keep an eye out for some Madtree Ahuevo!, quite tasty in the heat.)

[guyofthetiger]

(07-10-2023, 05:16 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Elly De La Cruz was on our flight this morning.

Did he steal your seat? lol

[CJD]

Today is the final day of the all star break and we can look forward to more baseball starting tomorrow.

In this all star break, I was kind of bored, so I looked up how Hunter Greene was pitching before he was injured.

In April (including his first start on March 30th), Hunter had 6 starts and his stat line was:
28.0 IP, 29 H, 11 R, 9 ER, 1 HR, 11 BB, 40 K, 24 GB, 48 FB, 125 BF (batters faces) for an ERA of 2.89 and a WHIP of 1.43

In May, Hunter had 5 starts and his stat line was:
28.0 IP, 26 H, 17 R, 17 ER, 7 HR, 11 BB, 40 K, 25 GB, 42 FB, 119 BF for an ERA of 5.46 and a WHIP of 1.32

In June, Hunter had 3 starts before going down with an injury and his stat line was:
17.1 IP, 13 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 1 HR, 9 BB, 20 K, 12 GB, 32 FB, 74 BF for an ERA of 3.12 and a WHIP of 1.27

If I include his 4th to last start (that was in May) with his 3 June starts, the stat line of his 4 most recent games was:
23.1 IP, 13 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 1 HR, 11 BB, 31 K, 15 GB, 36 FB, 94 BF for an ERA of 2.31 and a WHIP of 1.03

What really sticks out to me about these stat lines is that, throughout the season, his K rate and BB rate stayed....remarkably consistent. I mean, K rates of 32% in March/April, 33.6% in May, 27% in June (32.9% if you count the final May start with June) and BB rates of 8.8% in March/April, 9.2% in May, 12.2% in June (11.7% if you count the final May start with June) and his GB/FB rates are also very consistent, averaging about 1.75 to 2 fly balls for each ground ball. The fly ball rates and walk rates go up a bit in those final 4 starts, but not alarmingly so.

It seems to me that the biggest differentiator when it comes to Hunter Greene's effectiveness is whether those fly balls turn into home runs or not.
In his two periods of elite play, June and March/April, his HR/FB rate was virtually non-existent. 2.1% in March/April and 3.1% in June (2.8% if you count the final May start with June). But in May, that rate was a staggering 16.7%!

For context, Fangraphs considers a HR/FB rate of 13% to be "Awful" and is the lowest metric that they consider.

Greene's May HR/FB rate of 16.7% is similar to Nick Lodolo's HR/FB rate of 18.5%, both of which are (and were) simply...unsustainable. Even the worst Homerun allowers do not do it at that clip. The worst homerun % in baseball (among qualifying pitchers) is Yusei Kikuchi at 5.6%, which is lower than Hunter Greene's HR % from May of 5.9% and Lodolo's 6.0%.

So what does this tell me about Hunter Greene...Well, it sounds kind of obvious, but when he's not allowing home runs, he's a truly elite pitcher. We're talking top 10 in the game. His K rate is already among the best in the major leagues. His 31.4% would rank #5 in all of baseball if he had thrown enough innings to qualify. His BB rate is not great, at 9.7%, but that's not too far off from other elite pitchers like Marcus Stroman (9%), Sonny Gray (9.3%) or Shohei Ohtani (10.3%). Something to work on but not a glaring red flag either.

Suffice it to say, I am excited for Greene's return. I am also looking forward to Lodolo's return, the only difference being Greene showed that those HR numbers were an outlier by being elite in his final 4 starts before injury, whereas Lodolo was in the midst of his slump when he went on the IL.

I am extremely confident that when Greene comes back, he'll be our Ace again...I'm still a little concerned for Lodolo but his HR rates are almost certainly going to come down whenever he returns, which will make him an above average pitcher once again.

For context, in 2022, Nick Lodolo had a HR% of 2.9% and a HR/FB ratio of 9.4% (along with a K % of 29.7% and a BB rate of 8.8%), so this season has been a complete 180 from last year. I don't expect that trend to continue when he returns.

Can you tell I'm bored and looking forward to baseball resuming?

[*bengalfan74*]

I sure hope Greene can get back sooner rather than later and be that top shelf pitcher again.

With Greene back, Abbott and an Ashcraft that seems to be getting back on track I'd feel much better. Lively seems like he could be a decent #5.

It's Weaver and Williamson that scare me.