How bad our offense is, by the numbers

[Shake n Blake]

27th in scoring
32nd in yards
3rd in pass attempts, yet 28th in pass yards (wow)
31st in rush attempts, 32nd in rush yards and 26th in YPC

Burrow's average of 5.30 YPA is the lowest in the NFL (for a QB with over 1000 yards) since Jimmy Clausen in 2010.

From 2009 to present, only the 2018 Cardinals have averaged fewer yards.

Burrow is running around like he's fine. Something else is contributing to this type of ineptitude. I've never been a pin it all on Zac guy, but I have to ask questions.

1. Are Zac and Brian failing to make necessary changes to counteract defenses catching up with our offense?

2. Is Tee holding our offense back with some kind of health or attitude problem (contract)?

3. Is Burrow still unhealthy or turning into Carson Wentz?

4. No Tight End?

What do yall make of the stats, and what do you think the problem is?

[*PhilHos*]

(10-16-2023, 04:36 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: 27th in scoring
32nd in yards
3rd in pass attempts, yet 28th in pass yards (wow)
31st in rush attempts, 32nd in rush yards and 26th in YPC

Burrow's average of 5.30 YPA is the lowest in the NFL (for a QB with over 1000 yards) since Jimmy Clausen in 2010.

From 2009 to present, only the 2018 Cardinals have averaged fewer yards.

Burrow is running around like he's fine. Something else is contributing to this type of ineptitude. I've never been a pin it all on Zac guy, but I have to ask questions.

1. Are Zac and Brian failing to make necessary changes to counteract defenses catching up with our offense?

2. Is Tee holding our offense back with some kind of health or attitude problem (contract)?

3. Is Burrow still unhealthy or turning into Carson Wentz?

What do yall make of the stats, and what do you think the problem is?

I'm throwing out the first 4 weeks (including the win against the Rams) as that was clearly due to Joe's injury. Hindsight being what it is, he definitely should've sat.

So, the only real issue, for me, was the 2nd half of yesterday's game. Given Burrow's inaccuracy, I'm leaning partially towards the injury flaring up and partially towards the coaching staff just making the absolute WRONG adjustments at the half.

[Tony]

(10-16-2023, 04:36 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: 27th in scoring
32nd in yards
3rd in pass attempts, yet 28th in pass yards (wow)
31st in rush attempts, 32nd in rush yards and 26th in YPC

Burrow's average of 5.30 YPA is the lowest in the NFL (for a QB with over 1000 yards) since Jimmy Clausen in 2010.

From 2009 to present, only the 2018 Cardinals have averaged fewer yards.

Burrow is running around like he's fine. Something else is contributing to this type of ineptitude. I've never been a pin it all on Zac guy, but I have to ask questions.

1. Are Zac and Brian failing to make necessary changes to counteract defenses catching up with our offense?

2. Is Tee holding our offense back with some kind of health or attitude problem (contract)?

3. Is Burrow still unhealthy or turning into Carson Wentz?

4. No Tight End?

What do yall make of the stats, and what do you think the problem is?

They're dead last in total offense. Yes, even under the steelers and giants and the Steelers had a bye... Sad...

[RegularGuy22]

They are lucky to have 3 wins.

[Joelist]

Second half yesterday was by Burrow's own words on him missing open receivers. He has his usual accuracy and we drop two more tuddy's on Seattle at least.

[Shake n Blake]

(10-16-2023, 04:41 PM)Tony Wrote: They're dead last in total offense. Yes, even under the steelers and giants and the Steelers had a bye... Sad...

Not just the worst this year, but one of the worst offenses of the last 10+ years and probably one of the worst offenses in team history.

That's just hard to believe with the players we have. I thought we were improving, but Burrow and the offense were terrible overall yesterday.

[Tony]

(10-16-2023, 04:50 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Not just the worst this year, but one of the worst offenses of the last 10+ years and probably one of the worst offenses in team history.

That's just hard to believe with the players we have. I thought we were improving, but Burrow and the offense were terrible overall yesterday.

I put this on Taylor and Burrow. Refuse to run the ball, and when a run is called Burrow is constantly checking out of it... The creativity in this offense is about stale. It hasn't changed since Burrow got here...

[StoneTheCrow]

(10-16-2023, 04:47 PM)Joelist Wrote: Second half yesterday was by Burrow's own words on him missing open receivers. He has his usual accuracy and we drop two more tuddy's on Seattle at least.

I want to say it was either the first throw of the second half or just before halftime where he threw one behind Chase across the middle that would’ve been a house call untouched for 65 yards or so. That’s at least one for sure.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(10-16-2023, 04:46 PM)RegularGuy22 Wrote: They are lucky to have 3 wins.

Eh, as bad as they’ve been they could also easily be 4-2 right now if Burrow hadn’t thrown that pick in the Ravens game.

[Tony]

(10-16-2023, 04:53 PM)StoneTheCrow Wrote: I want to say it was either the first throw of the second half or just before halftime where he threw one behind Chase across the middle that would’ve been a house call untouched for 65 yards or so. That’s at least one for sure.

That was the 2nd drive after half I think...

[Tony]

(10-16-2023, 04:53 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Eh, as bad as they’ve been they could also easily be 4-2 right now if Burrow hadn’t thrown that pick in the Ravens game.

Ya , not because of the offense that's for sure. The defense has bailed them out so many times this year already its not funny... No wonder the D gets gashed sometimes. They're always on the field...

[*PhilHos*]

(10-16-2023, 04:57 PM)Tony Wrote: Ya , not because of the offense that's for sure. The defense has bailed them out so many times this year already its not funny... No wonder the D gets gashed sometimes. They're always on the field...

Just call our defense grass, because they're always on the field.


I'll see myself out, now.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(10-16-2023, 04:41 PM)PhilHos Wrote: I'm throwing out the first 4 weeks (including the win against the Rams) as that was clearly due to Joe's injury. Hindsight being what it is, he definitely should've sat.

So, the only real issue, for me, was the 2nd half of yesterday's game. Given Burrow's inaccuracy, I'm leaning partially towards the injury flaring up and partially towards the coaching staff just making the absolute WRONG adjustments at the half.

(10-16-2023, 04:47 PM)Joelist Wrote: Second half 

It wasn't just the second half. They had a 5 play and 3 play drive in the 2nd quarter. So it is actually almost the entirety of the 2nd quarter, too. Over 12 minutes of it.

[StoneTheCrow]

(10-16-2023, 04:56 PM)Tony Wrote: That was the 2nd drive after half I think...

I believe that. They had me cracking open the bourbon yesterday

[Shake n Blake]

Let me also offer a glass half full option:

Burrow's injury was the key reason for the terrible start, then we rebounded vs the Cardinals, then the Seahawks game was just a hiccup vs a good team.

Tee Higgins' issues and the lack of any options at TE are the biggest things holding us back now that Burrow is healthy.

[RegularGuy22]

Maybe it is Burrow checking out of calls from Zac to his own choice that he thinks is correct at LOS. They gave him control to change plays didn't they? Maybe take that away for a game and see if Zac's calls work better.

Maybe it isn't Zac's play calls that are the problem but Burrows?

[WeezyBengal]

I mean, you have to throw out the first few games because of the injury or at least provide that context.

To me, its 75% on the players and 25% on the coaches. There are execution lapses ALL over the field by different players on any given play during any given game.

Perfect example was a designed explosive to Irv Smith last game. Burrow was pressured on the inside by a failed offensive line block. He had to hit the check down.

If he had 1 more second of time he would have hit Irv Smith on the play design for a 35 yard plus TD. He was WIDE OPEN - he just didn't have time to let the play deveop. This is the kind of stuff thats exposed by watching the tape. Not by looking at numbers alone.

It's failed execution by players more often than not. A false start on third down that kills a drive. A failed block on an explosive shot play where Burrow doesn't have enough time to let the play develop. A RB who can't make a catch to pick up a short third down conversion and we have to punt.

Everyone wants to blame play calling and coaching because its the macro and lazy thing to do, but you need to hold the players accountable.

[KillerGoose]

The offense is very disjointed right now. Due to Burrow's injury, they have been operating strictly out of the gun and haven't been able to move the pocket for him. In seasons past, they had nice wrinkles mixed in like nakeds, QB draws/read options (first career TD), different ways of utilizing his mobility. All of those are gone right now, along with his ability to extend plays. At least, to an extent. He is looking better in this regard.

The running game has also been miserable. It started off nicely but has gone downhill fast. We beat this horse to death over the offseason, but Mixon is nothing special. He will eat up what the offensive line gives him and nothing more. So far, the offensive line hasn't given him much. Cincinnati is averaging 2.2 yards before contact, which is 27th in the league. Mixon's elusiveness ranks 48th out of 59 qualified RBs so far this season. You put those two together and you have a recipe for a bad time - he struggles to break tackles and the offensive line is struggling to give him running lanes. I don't have data on this, but this is going to allow defenses to sit in cover two against Cincinnati and take away their vertical options because Cincinnati simply can't run well enough to take them out of it.

Tee has been abysmal this season, and is now injured. He has had major drops issues and has been completely ineffective. One of the most effective receiving options in the offense is MIA. 

The offense has been very simple so far, in my eyes. Hopefully with Burrow getting healthier, they can introduce some more under center looks and move the pocket for Burrow. Get some of the depth running backs involved and attack the edges. Cincinnati is running everything right between the tackles, I think largely because of the simplistic run game (shotgun, attack A & B gaps.)

[KillerGoose]

(10-16-2023, 05:23 PM)RegularGuy22 Wrote: Maybe it is Burrow checking out of calls from Zac to his own choice that he thinks is correct at LOS. They gave him control to change plays didn't they? Maybe take that away for a game and see if Zac's calls work better.

Maybe it isn't Zac's play calls that are the problem but Burrows?

IIRC Zac gives Burrow two plays and Burrow has the freedom to check out of one into another. I don't know much control Burrow has to just completely change things up and go off script. If he does have that control, I would wager a guess he doesn't do it often. Most of those checks are just from the built in playcalls that Zac provides. 

[samhain]

The run game is becoming a huge problem.

It's not that Mixon has been bad. He's actually played well. He's been more willing to run to contact than I remember him being in years.

IMO it's about predictability and usage. No DC is looking at this offense and thinking they have to commit to stopping the run. Even when Burrow was at his worst, and yes you could argue the 2nd half yesterday along with the early season fit that description, they were throwing the shit out of the ball after the first couple of offensive series/scripted plays.

Burrow with a full compliment of receivers demands a lot of attention even in a diminished capacity. There are light boxes out there to be exploited nearly all game long. Mixon got 12 carries yesterday. 12. On top of that, you have what's still largely a horizontal passing attack. Why would any defense do anything but sell out to stop the limited passing game? We've seen both yesterday and in Tennessee that if that's not working, the offense sputters to a grinding halt.

I hate to bash the staff because they've gained a ton of credit in the last 2 seasons. Even so, it's staggering to realize how little this team takes advantage of defenses just begging to have the ball run down their throats every damn week. At the very least it could draw in some coverage to open up the pass. At best, you give the qb a break and take the onus off of him for the totality of the offense.

I've said it before, but last season's success was largely rooted in the run game taking shape. When they started using Perine behind Cappa nd Collins, it added a much needed physicality to the offense. I hate to make Samaje sound like more of a player than he was, but the threat and capability of getting tough, physical yards made the cumulative offense much more complete. There is currently no back on this team that's going to dish out that kind of punishment game in and game out. If teams sold out to stop the pass, Perine would get the ball and run people over.

Some of the nip and tuck roster building that's being done to make space for the stars is proving to be more impactful than I had expected. The lack of TE and legitimate 3rd down back is hurting them badly, IMO. If Mixon goes down, I have no idea what they will do. If there was ever a season to make an in-season trade, it's this one.