How bad our offense is, by the numbers

[Shake n Blake]

(10-16-2023, 05:25 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: I mean, you have to throw out the first few games because of the injury or at least provide that context.

To me, its 75% on the players and 25% on the coaches. There are execution lapses ALL over the field by different players on any given play during any given game.

Perfect example was a designed explosive to Irv Smith last game. Burrow was pressured on the inside by a failed offensive line block. He had to hit the check down.

If he had 1 more second of time he would have hit Irv Smith on the play design for a 35 yard plus TD. He was WIDE OPEN - he just didn't have time to let the play deveop. This is the kind of stuff thats exposed by watching the tape. Not by looking at numbers alone.

It's failed execution by players more often than not. A false start on third down that kills a drive. A failed block on an explosive shot play where Burrow doesn't have enough time to let the play develop. A RB who can't make a catch to pick up a short third down conversion and we have to punt.

Everyone wants to blame play calling and coaching because its the macro and lazy thing to do, but you need to hold the players accountable.

On this, I've always held this philosophy:

On individual plays, you can look at execution. That said, when the crap starts to pile up, you have to start looking at the coaches. At least look at them. Especially when you have this much talent on offense. Guys who have gotten it done at the highest level in the very recent past.

In those cases, injury or coaching are usually the 2 you look at.

If everyone is healthy, we should be rolling. If we were rolling for the most part, you wouldn't even notice or care about the times players failed to execute. Crap is adding up.

[Shake n Blake]

(10-16-2023, 05:02 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: It wasn't just the second half. They had a 5 play and 3 play drive in the 2nd quarter. So it is actually almost the entirety of the 2nd quarter, too. Over 12 minutes of it.

Even our big game vs the Cardinals wasn't as rosy as we think. Burrow only averaged 8.8 yards per completion on 36 completions. Despite having that 63 yard bomb mixed in.

Mixon had 81 yards, but averaged 3.2 yards per carry.

[*Go Cards*]

(10-16-2023, 05:30 PM)samhain Wrote: The run game is becoming a huge problem.  

It's not that Mixon has been bad.  He's actually played well.  He's been more willing to run to contact than I remember him being in years.

IMO it's about predictability and usage.  No DC is looking at this offense and thinking they have to commit to stopping the run.  Even when Burrow was at his worst, and yes you could argue the 2nd half yesterday along with the early season fit that description, they were throwing the shit out of the ball after the first couple of offensive series/scripted plays.  

Burrow with a full compliment of receivers demands a lot of attention even in a diminished capacity.  There are light boxes out there to be exploited nearly all game long.  Mixon got 12 carries yesterday.  12.  On top of that, you have what's still largely a horizontal passing attack.  Why would any defense do anything but sell out to stop the limited passing game?  We've seen both yesterday and in Tennessee that if that's not working, the offense sputters to a grinding halt.  

I hate to bash the staff because they've gained a ton of credit in the last 2 seasons.  Even so, it's staggering to realize how little this team takes advantage of defenses just begging to have the ball run down their throats every damn week.  At the very least it could draw in some coverage to open up the pass.  At best, you give the qb a break and take the onus off of him for the totality of the offense.  

I've said it before, but last season's success was largely rooted in the run game taking shape.  When they started using Perine behind Cappa nd Collins, it added a much needed physicality to the offense.  I hate to make Samaje sound like more of a player than he was, but the threat and capability of getting tough, physical yards made the cumulative offense much more complete.  There is currently no back on this team that's going to dish out that kind of punishment game in and game out.  If teams sold out to stop the pass, Perine would get the ball and run people over.  

Some of the nip and tuck roster building that's being done to make space for the stars is proving to be more impactful than I had expected.  The lack of TE and legitimate 3rd down back is hurting them badly, IMO.  If Mixon goes down, I have no idea what they will do.  If there was ever a season to make an in-season trade, it's this one.

Agree, except think losing Perine was a shock to them. Believe they thought he was staying until the curtain was drawn to reveal he was now a Bronco. Do fault the staff for not addressing the RB situation more seriously after they knew Perine was not coming back. Kind of feel the same about the TE position as well, but the RB situation is more dire though. One injury and they're in trouble like you said. 

Heck could possibly see Denver trading Perine back, but don't think the Bengals would pull the trigger.

[*Go Cards*]

(10-16-2023, 04:36 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: 27th in scoring
32nd in yards
3rd in pass attempts, yet 28th in pass yards (wow)
31st in rush attempts, 32nd in rush yards and 26th in YPC

Burrow's average of 5.30 YPA is the lowest in the NFL (for a QB with over 1000 yards) since Jimmy Clausen in 2010.

From 2009 to present, only the 2018 Cardinals have averaged fewer yards.

Burrow is running around like he's fine. Something else is contributing to this type of ineptitude. I've never been a pin it all on Zac guy, but I have to ask questions.

1. Are Zac and Brian failing to make necessary changes to counteract defenses catching up with our offense?

2. Is Tee holding our offense back with some kind of health or attitude problem (contract)?

3. Is Burrow still unhealthy or turning into Carson Wentz?

4. No Tight End?

What do yall make of the stats, and what do you think the problem is?

We all knew it was bad just with the eye test, but this is humbling to read. 

How can you have Burrow, Chase, Higgins, and Boyd plus pass the 3rd most in the NFL and only rank 28th ? Double WOW !!!

[*Go Cards*]

Just got to hope it's all Burrow's calf and the Bye week is productive helping them can right the ship and set sail.

[chrisball96]

(10-16-2023, 05:26 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: The offense is very disjointed right now. Due to Burrow's injury, they have been operating strictly out of the gun and haven't been able to move the pocket for him. In seasons past, they had nice wrinkles mixed in like nakeds, QB draws/read options (first career TD), different ways of utilizing his mobility. All of those are gone right now, along with his ability to extend plays. At least, to an extent. He is looking better in this regard.

The running game has also been miserable. It started off nicely but has gone downhill fast. We beat this horse to death over the offseason, but Mixon is nothing special. He will eat up what the offensive line gives him and nothing more. So far, the offensive line hasn't given him much. Cincinnati is averaging 2.2 yards before contact, which is 27th in the league. Mixon's elusiveness ranks 48th out of 59 qualified RBs so far this season. You put those two together and you have a recipe for a bad time - he struggles to break tackles and the offensive line is struggling to give him running lanes. I don't have data on this, but this is going to allow defenses to sit in cover two against Cincinnati and take away their vertical options because Cincinnati simply can't run well enough to take them out of it.

Tee has been abysmal this season, and is now injured. He has had major drops issues and has been completely ineffective. One of the most effective receiving options in the offense is MIA. 

The offense has been very simple so far, in my eyes. Hopefully with Burrow getting healthier, they can introduce some more under center looks and move the pocket for Burrow. Get some of the depth running backs involved and attack the edges. Cincinnati is running everything right between the tackles, I think largely because of the simplistic run game (shotgun, attack A & B gaps.)

All of this analysis is completely spot on. However, it may seem lazy in the face of that analysis, but for as bad as he looked in the second half he was on fire in the first. And I think this is a part of him getting better week by week and finally being able to incorporate new facets of his game, moving the pocket, actually dropping back for longer passes, etc. So to me, this is kind of like Week 2 for "healthy Burrow" and while you don't want a half to be as bad as we saw last week, its something that happens. 

[Nicomo Cosca]

Of the 54 RBs that have carried the ball at least 25 times this season, Joe Mixon ranks...

40th in Yards After Contact Per
42nd in Breakout Run Percentage
44th in Elusive Rating

— Goodberry (@JoeGoodberry) October 16, 2023

Higgins is on pace for 136 targets, with just 56 catches and only 596 receiving yards for a full season.

— Goodberry (@JoeGoodberry) October 16, 2023

These are two glaring issues right here.

[Joelist]

By the way, some pass stats after 6 games:

252 dropbacks
14 sacks good for 16th in NFL
42 total pressures for a 16.6% pressure rate, good for 9th in the NFL
10 dropped passes (5th most in the NFL)
59.8% of passes On Target (24th in the NFL)
15.2% of passes classed as Bad Throws (22nd in the NFL)
63% overall completion pct.

These stats tell a story of dropped balls and inaccurate throws being the primary issue. As Burrow gets healthier and more fully up to speed I expect both the Bad Throw and On Target numbers to move big time in the right directions. The drops are for the receivers to work out.

[Soonerpeace]

Even with the first few games and Joe’s drawbacks the run game sucks. It’s sucked for a long time. Teams know we can’t run and are going to pass. It’s limiting us tremendously on offense. We will struggle until we get some improvement

[KillerGoose]

(10-16-2023, 06:30 PM)chrisball96 Wrote: All of this analysis is completely spot on. However, it may seem lazy in the face of that analysis, but for as bad as he looked in the second half he was on fire in the first. And I think this is a part of him getting better week by week and finally being able to incorporate new facets of his game, moving the pocket, actually dropping back for longer passes, etc. So to me, this is kind of like Week 2 for "healthy Burrow" and while you don't want a half to be as bad as we saw last week, its something that happens. 

Yeah, I do think Burrow is trending upward for sure. I'm optimistic about the timing of this bye week. Gives Burrow extra time to rest, coaches time to modify gameplans to adapt to where Joe is healthwise. This team is built on the back of Joe. Without him playing well, the Bengals have nothing else. 

[Brownshoe]

(10-16-2023, 05:31 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: On this, I've always held this philosophy:

On individual plays, you can look at execution. That said, when the crap starts to pile up, you have to start looking at the coaches. At least look at them. Especially when you have this much talent on offense. Guys who have gotten it done at the highest level in the very recent past.

In those cases, injury or coaching are usually the 2 you look at.

If everyone is healthy, we should be rolling. If we were rolling for the most part, you wouldn't even notice or care about the times players failed to execute. Crap is adding up.

Yep. Coaching isn't just finding plays that would work. It's finding plays that works with the players you have. So if you have players that aren't going to execute it properly you need to find new plays. That's what coaching is.

[THE PISTONS]

Of the 49 receivers that have seen at least 25 targets this year, Tee Higgins has the lowest catch percentage at 41.2% -- catching just 14 of his 34 targets. The next lowest catch rate is 52%.

Higgins has caught just 2 of 11 contested balls this season. That 18.2% is far lower…

— Goodberry (@JoeGoodberry) October 16, 2023

[THE PISTONS]

PFF currently has the Bengals Pass Blocking as the 20th ranked in the NFL.

That's the highest they've ranked in Pass BLK since 2016.

— Goodberry (@JoeGoodberry) October 16, 2023

[Chezaugie]

(10-16-2023, 04:46 PM)RegularGuy22 Wrote: They are lucky to have 3 wins.

I can't say I disagree. This team is not real good right now.

[THE PISTONS]

Just shows how much they relied on Chase, Burrow, and Higgins playmaking to win.

Take that away or part of it...and the offense is bad.

In some ways, Zac won the lottery.

[samhain]

On a positive note, I think that it says a lot about the character of the team that they are 3-3. Not a lot has been consistently working for them, yet they've willed themselves to a 500 record after starting in a 0-2 hole.

As weird as it sounds, they've actually won 3 of their last 4. It doesn't feel like it, but that's where they are.

It's hard to look at them as a great team as things stand right now, but that's something great teams do. They find ways to stay on track despite major disadvantages and bad luck. Gutting out the LA and Seattle games as ugly, but it's those kinds of games that might just keep them alive in a playoff hunt late in the season.

[NUGDUKWE]

(10-16-2023, 04:47 PM)Joelist Wrote: Second half yesterday was by Burrow's own words on him missing open receivers. He has his usual accuracy and we drop two more tuddy's on Seattle at least.

Yeah I just watched the game again. Right before halftime we got the ball with 40 some secs left. 1st and 10 Burrow throws behind Chase who can't make the grab. Really looked like if he hit him in stride Chase was either taking it to the house or getting a very large gain. But multiple drives stalled due to in part Burrows accuracy problem yesterday. 

But I still think we don't do enough with our short passing. Get the ball out to Chase Brown or Evans and let them make a guy miss. But throw it to them on the move don't have them stand on a spot.

[Whacked]

(10-16-2023, 07:29 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote:

Of the 49 receivers that have seen at least 25 targets this year, Tee Higgins has the lowest catch percentage at 41.2% -- catching just 14 of his 34 targets. The next lowest catch rate is 52%.

Higgins has caught just 2 of 11 contested balls this season. That 18.2% is far lower…

— Goodberry (@JoeGoodberry) October 16, 2023

Wow. Wthh

[chrisball96]

(10-16-2023, 07:29 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote:

Of the 49 receivers that have seen at least 25 targets this year, Tee Higgins has the lowest catch percentage at 41.2% -- catching just 14 of his 34 targets. The next lowest catch rate is 52%.

Higgins has caught just 2 of 11 contested balls this season. That 18.2% is far lower…

— Goodberry (@JoeGoodberry) October 16, 2023

Not exactly what you want to see in a contract year. But I really want to give him then benefit of the doubt with the rib injury that’s probably not easy to have/come back from right away. Boyd stepped up this week, next game it’s Tee’s turn.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

(10-16-2023, 04:36 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: 27th in scoring
32nd in yards
3rd in pass attempts, yet 28th in pass yards (wow)
31st in rush attempts, 32nd in rush yards and 26th in YPC

Burrow's average of 5.30 YPA is the lowest in the NFL (for a QB with over 1000 yards) since Jimmy Clausen in 2010.

From 2009 to present, only the 2018 Cardinals have averaged fewer yards.

Burrow is running around like he's fine. Something else is contributing to this type of ineptitude. I've never been a pin it all on Zac guy, but I have to ask questions.

1. Are Zac and Brian failing to make necessary changes to counteract defenses catching up with our offense?

2. Is Tee holding our offense back with some kind of health or attitude problem (contract)?

3. Is Burrow still unhealthy or turning into Carson Wentz?

4. No Tight End?

What do yall make of the stats, and what do you think the problem is?

1. Yes. 
2. Yes. His ribs are broken. He's dropped a bunch. Had 1 good game.  
3. IDK. But his accuracy & decision making have both been poor.  
4. Yes.