ESPN Playoff Simulator

[*rfaulk34*]

Did a little simulating and these are some things i came up with. I only predicted relevant games to the AFC playoffs. D = defeat.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

Week 14: Dolphins win
Week 15: Beng D Vikes, Colts D Steel, Lions D Broncs, Dolph D Jets, Tex D Tit, Browns D Bears, Chiefs D Pats, Cows D Bills, Jags D Ravens
Week 16: Beng D Steel, Bills D Charg, Tex D Browns, Colts D Falc, Jags D Bucs, Cows D Dolph, Broncs D Pats, Chiefs D Raid, 49ers D Ravens
Week 17: Browns D Jets, Rav D Dolph, Bills D Pats, Colts D Raid, Jags D Panth, Tex D Tit, Hawks D Steel, Beng D Chiefs, Bronc D Charg
Week 18: Rav D Steel, Beng D Browns, Colts D Tex, Chiefs D Charg, Raid D Bronc, Dolph D Bills, Jags D Tit, 

That makes the playoffs look like this.




If i go back to week 17 and change the Bengals v Chiefs to a loss, it knocks the Bengals out of the playoffs. 


If i also change the week 16 Colts v Falcons to a loss for the Colts, it looks like this. 



And if i change the Bengals v Chiefs back to a Bengals win and change the week 18 Broncos v Raiders to a Denver win, it goes back to the Miami #1 seed scenario above. 

There are so many scenarios, that i stopped changing outcomes to see what it would take for the 'Bengals to make it if' because there were so many changes by simply altering one game from above, in any given week. It's gonna be an insane ending to the season...

[*bfine32*]

I think our best bet is that BALT has something to play for in week 17.

[*rfaulk34*]

(12-11-2023, 11:29 PM)bfine32 Wrote: I think our best bet is that BALT has something to play for in week 17.

They should. A lot of the scenarios look like the Bengals need the Broncos to lose 2 more for the Bengals to lose to KC and still get in. 

The Bengals do control their own destiny. As long as they win out, there's no scenario where any other WC teams can knock them out if they all win, since there are instances where a couple hopefuls play each other and no matter the outcome, the Bengals are still in it.

[CincinnatiKid]

The Bengals horrible conference record will be the death of them I am afraid

[Rubekahn29]

Just keep winning.

[BengalYankee]

[TheCincinnatiKid]

I've done a few of these the past week, and we'll likely need a few things to go our way:

- We probably need the Texans to win their division. Clears the H2H loss against them. Fortunately, there's a decent chance they'll be tied with the Jags by the end of the week.
- We need the Broncos to cool off. Same record and they'll be above us I believe. Large chance they finish above us in my opinion.

If we can avoid the Broncos/Texans in terms of matching records, in my opinion we're mostly likely then looking at potentially being tied at 10-7 with the Bills/Jags, both of whom we've already beaten. That would get us in.

Personally I think we can ignore the Browns/Steelers/Colts. The Browns will get in I think, the Steelers will be a game we have to win if we're going 10-7, and the Colts I don't think get to 10 wins. But they play the games for a reason.

Heck of a playoff race!

[CKwi88]

I think we barely miss out at 9-8. I hope I'm wrong, but it's tough to see this team beating the Chiefs or Browns.

[*bengalfan74*]

(12-12-2023, 12:58 PM)CKwi88 Wrote: I think we barely miss out at 9-8. I hope I'm wrong, but it's tough to see this team beating the Chiefs or Browns.

I dunno ?

If they stick with the under center, running the ball, using play action fakes I feel we have a better chance vs. the all shotgun let the Browns D feast offense.

And our D must play well

[CKwi88]

(12-12-2023, 02:40 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: I dunno ?

If they stick with the under center, running the ball, using play action fakes I feel we have a better chance vs. the all shotgun let the Browns D feast offense.

And our D must play well

It's a divisional game and very well could be a win-and-in game so all bets are off, but given how we've looked vs the Browns over the last 4-5 years I don't think anyone should really feel confident about it.

[TheCincinnatiKid]

(12-12-2023, 02:48 PM)CKwi88 Wrote: It's a divisional game and very well could be a win-and-in game so all bets are off, but given how we've looked vs the Browns over the last 4-5 years I don't think anyone should really feel confident about it.

Agreed, but it is possible the Browns have punched their ticket and have little to play for by week 18. If the Browns need to win, I certainly don't think we're favourites.

[Essex Johnson]

(12-11-2023, 11:22 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Did a little simulating and these are some things i came up with. I only predicted relevant games to the AFC playoffs. D = defeat.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

Week 14: Dolphins win
Week 15: Beng D Vikes, Colts D Steel, Lions D Broncs, Dolph D Jets, Tex D Tit, Browns D Bears, Chiefs D Pats, Cows D Bills, Jags D Ravens
Week 16: Beng D Steel, Bills D Charg, Tex D Browns, Colts D Falc, Jags D Bucs, Cows D Dolph, Broncs D Pats, Chiefs D Raid, 49ers D Ravens
Week 17: Browns D Jets, Rav D Dolph, Bills D Pats, Colts D Raid, Jags D Panth, Tex D Tit, Hawks D Steel, Beng D Chiefs, Bronc D Charg
Week 18: Rav D Steel, Beng D Browns, Colts D Tex, Chiefs D Charg, Raid D Bronc, Dolph D Bills, Jags D Tit, 

That makes the playoffs look like this.




If i go back to week 17 and change the Bengals v Chiefs to a loss, it knocks the Bengals out of the playoffs. 


If i also change the week 16 Colts v Falcons to a loss for the Colts, it looks like this. 



And if i change the Bengals v Chiefs back to a Bengals win and change the week 18 Broncos v Raiders to a Denver win, it goes back to the Miami #1 seed scenario above. 

There are so many scenarios, that i stopped changing outcomes to see what it would take for the 'Bengals to make it if' because there were so many changes by simply altering one game from above, in any given week. It's gonna be an insane ending to the season...

And just think, Miami lost.. every week there are upsets, that is the key play at a steady level every game.. realistic is best we do is 3-1 or 2-2....still could get it 3-1 but 2-2 with tiebreakers we are dead in the water

[*rfaulk34*]

(12-12-2023, 03:49 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: And just think, Miami lost.. every week there are upsets, that is the key play at a steady level every game.. realistic is best we do is 3-1  or 2-2....still could get it 3-1 but 2-2 with tiebreakers we are dead in the water

Things are going to fluctuate so much over the next 4 weeks it's gonna make everyone's head spin. Bare minimum they need to go 3-1, and they need help if that happens. 

Go 4-0 and no one can keep them out. 

[Whacked]

(12-12-2023, 03:49 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: …... realistic is best we do is 3-1 or 2-2....still could get it 3-1 but 2-2 with tiebreakers we are dead in the water

(12-12-2023, 04:21 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Go 4-0 and no one can keep them out. 

This is how my noggin is thinking as well.

[Essex Johnson]

(12-12-2023, 12:13 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: They should. A lot of the scenarios look like the Bengals need the Broncos to lose 2 more for the Bengals to lose to KC and still get in. 

The Bengals do control their own destiny. As long as they win out, there's no scenario where any other WC teams can knock them out if they all win, since there are instances where a couple hopefuls play each other and no matter the outcome, the Bengals are still in it.

I am not sure if that is accurate that we are in if we win out . So lets say Ravens , Bills (4-0) Jags (2-2) and Chiefs (3-1) win division
Denver (4-0), Bengals (4-0), Indy (3-1) , Miami (2-2), Cleveland (3-1) all finish 11-7, I could see Bengals not making the playoffs, since we would be 6-6 in conference, Cleveland and Indy would be 8-4, Denver and Miami would be 7-5, that would be the main tiebreaker to decide a 5 team tie, correct ?

[*rfaulk34*]

(12-12-2023, 06:24 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: I am not sure if that is accurate that we are in if we win out .  So lets say Ravens , Bills (4-0) Jags (2-2) and Chiefs (3-1) win division
Denver (4-0), Bengals (4-0), Indy (3-1) , Miami (2-2), Cleveland (3-1) all finish 11-7, I could see Bengals not making the playoffs, since we would be 6-6 in conference, Cleveland and Indy would be 8-4, Denver and Miami would be 7-5, that would be the main tiebreaker to decide a 5 team tie, correct ?

I ran your scenario with Jags, Ravens, Bills and Chiefs winning their divisions. Denver 4-0, Bengals 4-0, Indy 3-1, Miami 2-2, Browns 3-1 and the Texans 2-2 (you forgot them).

It turned out like this.



If i change the Texans to 3-1 by virtue of a win against the Browns, which makes the Browns 2-2, it looks like this.



If the Texans go 4-0 it takes wins away from the Browns and Colts and the Bengals still get the 7th seed, with the Texans being the 5th seed.

[BFritz21]

All these make what's left of my brain hurt............



Obviously hoping we win out and the unlikely doesn't happen that keeps us out (I think I saw an unlikely possibility or two of us winning out and not making it), and it's possible, especially because I like the heart this team has shown since Burrow went down.

I agree with having Browning under center and establishing the run the rest of the way. Make life easier on him and let him make plays.

[Essex Johnson]

(12-12-2023, 09:46 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: I ran your scenario with Jags, Ravens, Bills and Chiefs winning their divisions. Denver 4-0, Bengals 4-0, Indy 3-1, Miami 2-2, Browns 3-1 and the Texans 2-2 (you forgot them).

It turned out like this.



If i change the Texans to 3-1 by virtue of a win against the Browns, which makes the Browns 2-2, it looks like this.



If the Texans go 4-0 it takes wins away from the Browns and Colts and the Bengals still get the 7th seed, with the Texans being the 5th seed.

I ran mine using Pro Football Network it came out with how i predicted with using a simulator based on the playoff criteria

Division Champs 1 Ravens 12-5 2 KC 11-6 3 Jags 11-6 4 Bills 11-6

5 Browns 11-6 6 Colts 11-6 7 Dolphins 11-6,

Bengals and Broncos out at 11-6.

Here is where the Bengals get hurt, not sure if division placement matters but they are 3rd in their division, all other WC are 2nd in their division. The big criteria that gets them is conference record, since head to head is going to be thrown out since no team has defeated all the other 4 teams at 11-6, then then it goes to conference record, the best Bengals can do is 6-6,every team including Denver will have 7 or more conference wins so Bengals would finish 9th.

Now honest opinion , no way do i see that many teams at 11-6 but we been saying midway through season if Bengals tie with multiple teams for WC most likely with their bad division record they will lose out and even if they go 4-0 that plays out. My belief if they go 11-6 they will be in, I don;t see Bills and Denver winning 11 so we would get in.

[*rfaulk34*]

(12-12-2023, 11:50 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: I ran mine using Pro Football Network it came out with how i predicted  with using a simulator based on the playoff criteria

Division Champs 1 Ravens 12-5  2 KC 11-6 3 Jags 11-6  4 Bills 11-6

5 Browns 11-6  6 Colts 11-6   7 Dolphins 11-6,

Bengals and Broncos out at 11-6.

Here is where the Bengals get hurt, not sure if division placement matters but they are 3rd in their division, all other WC are 2nd in their division. The big criteria that gets them is conference record, since head to head is going to be thrown out since no team has defeated all the other 4 teams at 11-6, then then it goes  to conference record, the best Bengals can do is 6-6,every team including Denver will have 7 or more conference wins so Bengals would finish 9th.

Now honest opinion , no way do i see that many teams at 11-6 but we been saying midway through season if Bengals tie with multiple teams for WC most likely with their bad division record they will lose out and even if they go 4-0 that plays out.  My belief if they go 11-6 they will be in, I don;t see Bills and Denver winning 11 so we would get in.

Yeah, there's no way that four currently 7-6 teams are winning out and having two 11 win teams miss out. 

Simply put, there are scenarios where the Bengals can go 3-1 and still get in, mostly if Denver stumbles. If the Bengals go 4-0, there's no realistic way they don't make it.

But it's going to change so much for the next 2 weeks, we won't get a less muddied picture until week 17

[puddycat]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/upshot/nfl-playoff-picture.html

I found this more useful. Way too many possibilities to be exhaustive, but:
1) Bengals control destiny with 99+% wildcard playoff chance with 11 wins.
2) Bengals are 70-80% playoff wildcard with 10 wins. Slightly better if only loss is to KC or Minn.
3) Bengals have 10-20% chance for playoffs with 9 wins, unless Bengals lose to Pitt, then it's around 4%.