AFC Playoff Probabilities As of Right Now

[Science Friction]

As of 12/18 , here's how it stands . Chances of making the playoffs :

Baltimore .....   >99%

KC.....   >99%

Miami ..... 98%

Cleveland..... 88%

Jacksonville..... 75%

Buffalo.....   71%

Houston.....  55%

Indy.....  53%

Cincinnati ..... 35%

Denver..... 21%

Pittsburgh..... 3%

Las Vegas.....1%

San Diego  ..... <1%

* NY Jets.....   0%  

*New England..... 0%

* Eliminated from playoff contention

[reuben.ahmed]

Yeah, the ball could have bounced a better way on Sunday!

[Science Friction]

Looking ahead to next week, a win over the Steelers increases our playoff chances to 54%(without factoring in any other week 16 outcome).

The three teams that could help us most with a win in Week 16:

1. Patriots with a win at Denver
2. Chargers winning at home over the Bills
3. Buccaneers winning at home vs the Jaguars.

If two or more of those outcomes fail to go our way but we still beat the Steelers, we will wind up somewhere in the mid 40's(45-46%) by Christmas Eve.

[Essex Johnson]

(12-18-2023, 04:53 AM)Science Friction Wrote: Looking ahead to next week, a win over the Steelers increases our playoff chances to 54%(without factoring in any other week 16 outcome).

The three teams that could help us most with a win in Week 16:

1. Patriots with a win at Denver
2. Chargers winning at home over the Bills
3. Buccaneers winning at home vs the Jaguars.

If two or more of those outcomes fail to go our way but we still beat the Steelers, we will wind up somewhere in the mid 40's(45-46%) by Christmas Eve.

1 and 2 very unlikely,  3 is possible,  it is still looking like we might need to win out when you factor in tiebreakers

[Science Friction]

(12-18-2023, 07:21 AM)Essex Johnson Wrote: 1 and 2 very unlikely,  3 is possible,  it is still looking like we might need to win out when you factor in tiebreakers

With 10 wins, we will likely need at least 1 team to help us in week 18 to get in. 


Also, from playing around with playoff probabilities, I can see that we need to be rooting for Miami to close out the season well, especially in that game against Buffalo. GO FINS!!!

[TecmoBengals]

It's safe to assume Zac is keeping the team focused on what they can control: winning. Everything else plays out as it will. Fingers crossed Browning gets a taste of the playoffs in the upcoming weeks.

[Nepa]

(12-18-2023, 03:37 AM)Science Friction Wrote: As of 12/18 , here's how it stands . Chances of making the playoffs :

Baltimore .....   >99%

KC.....   >99%

Miami ..... 98%

Cleveland..... 88%

Jacksonville..... 75%

Buffalo.....   71%

Houston.....  55%

Indy.....  53%

Cincinnati ..... 35%

Denver..... 21%

Pittsburgh..... 3%

One again, the Bengals have had a very tough schedule throughout the year. All four AFC North teams have a SOS well above  .5, led by the Bengals at .559. Only Jacksonville, as a result of last night's game is higher than the Bengals at .577, and the Bengals last three games are really tough, versus what the Jaguars face. Then you look at teams like Miami, which has the lowest SOS in the entire NFL at .395. 

Playing in the AFC North is just very tough each year.

[Ell Prez]

We have 3 very tough games. We’ve wasted quite a few winnable games this year (Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Houston). I think we need to win out to make it and sadly I think we’re going to fall 1 game short. Missing playoffs and missing a top 10 pick will hurt both emotionally relatively.

[CJD]

(12-18-2023, 04:30 AM)reuben.ahmed Wrote: Yeah, the ball could have bounced a better way on Sunday!

Sunday was absolutely brutal.

Cleveland and Houston coming back to steal wins, Buffalo winning, and then the easy ones of Miami and KC winning (which they should have).

The one good thing that happened was Jacksonville lost. We weren't going to catch up to the Ravens, so I am not concerned about them winning more games, but Jacksonville losing made it so that the AFC South will be a 3 team scramble. I'm hoping two of the three fall out of the playoffs as they fight for the division and that leaves the 6th or 7th seed for us.

Because, right now, the odds are against us unless we find a way to win out.

[WeezyBengal]

I assume we lose @KC and win out. There is still a very possible path if we get to 10 wins.


Cleveland still plays @Texans and @Bengals

Texans still play the Browns and @Colts

Colts still play the Texans


It's going to come down to week 18. We should all be the biggest Raiders fans in the world right now. They play @Colts week 17 and @Denver week 18 - two games which they could very well win. They are playing good ball right now.

I think two of the AFC South teams fade and the Bengals, Bills, and Browns get in.

[Frank Booth]

(12-18-2023, 11:25 AM)Ell Prez Wrote: We have 3 very tough games. We’ve wasted quite a few winnable games this year (Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Houston). I think we need to win out to make it and sadly I think we’re going to fall 1 game short. Missing playoffs and missing a top 10 pick will hurt both emotionally relatively.

Look at the one positive

Bengals will most likely get a last place schedule for 2024

[WeezyBengal]

(12-18-2023, 12:10 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: Look at the one positive

Bengals will most likely get a last place schedule for 2024

Or we could go and win the whole ****** thing. 

[kevinsea]

(12-18-2023, 12:22 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: Or we could go and win the whole ****** thing. 

One more thing that could help is the Browns could have a playoff spot clinched by the time they play the Bengals

[leonardfan40]

People always overreact to this kind of stuff. Beat Pitt to knock them out, then win one of the last two games to get to 10 wins and we make the playoffs. 11 wins guarantees it, but 10 wins will get it done. People act like every other team in contention will win out but that doesn’t happen. Look at Saturday. Steelers and Broncos both lost. Lots of these teams still play each other. It’ll work itself out. Just win this week and at least one more and I’ll be shocked if we don’t make it.

[WeezyBengal]

(12-18-2023, 01:12 PM)leonardfan40 Wrote: People always overreact to this kind of stuff. Beat Pitt to knock them out, then win one of the last two games to get to 10 wins and we make the playoffs. 11 wins guarantees it, but 10 wins will get it done. People act like every other team in contention will win out but that doesn’t happen. Look at Saturday. Steelers and Broncos both lost. Lots of these teams still play each other. It’ll work itself out. Just win this week and at least one more and I’ll be shocked if we don’t make it.

By that logic us, Bills, Colts, and Texans will all be getting in... 

Just not sure 10 wins does it this year...gotta remember we are in a 17 game season now too...10 wins aint what it use to be. 

[Luvnit2]

(12-18-2023, 11:50 AM)WeezyBengal Wrote: I assume we lose @KC and win out. There is still a very possible path if we get to 10 wins.


Cleveland still plays @Texans and @Bengals

Texans still play the Browns and @Colts

Colts still play the Texans


It's going to come down to week 18. We should all be the biggest Raiders fans in the world right now. They play @Colts week 17 and @Denver week 18 - two games which they could very well win. They are playing good ball right now.

I think two of the AFC South teams fade and the Bengals, Bills, and Browns get in.

I say root for the Browns (assume they are WC clinched, but can't win division so they rest guys week 18).

If Browns can beat Texans, that could help us, but key is we have to win at least 2 more games to have a shot.

Each week is a playoff game starting with Steelers.

[leonardfan40]

(12-18-2023, 01:33 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: By that logic us, Bills, Colts, and Texans will all be getting in... 

Just not sure 10 wins does it this year...gotta remember we are in a 17 game season now too...10 wins aint what it use to be. 

A week ago these teams were all 7-6, barely above .500. It’s human nature to assume they’re all going to win out or close to it, but they were all 7-6 for a reason. These teams are far from invincible. Some of them will falter down the stretch (hopefully not us). Plus there’s still multiple games between these teams and other playoff contenders. It’ll sort itself out more than most here seem to think.

Sure, it’s possible we win 10 games and miss out. I wouldn’t bet money on it though. If browns win this week that’s a big plus for us. Buffalo (still plays miami) and Denver both lose one more game. Then we win vs Pitt and win one of the last two games after that, and we are in. Very good chance that happens if we take care of winning our two games starting with this one.

[Graphicguy]

(12-18-2023, 12:22 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: Or we could go and win the whole ****** thing. 

Win and in.  Everything else we have no control over.  So, the percentages mean nothing.  No one thought we'd win another game without Burrow. Every week from here on out is a playoff week.

[Bengalfan4life27c]

Most likely scenario is way Browns are playing they will have their spot locked when we meet week 18 up have a feeling Patriots will beat Broncos this week Broncos feel kind of fraudulent and Belichek wants to win as many as possible before he leaves Steelers this week feels like a defacto playoff game where we will be facing browns backups week 18 I dont know how motivated Chiefs will be week 17 as well if they clinch Sunday If Ravens upset 49ers it will end any realistic shot for the Chiefs have for the 1 seed

[TheCincinnatiKid]

(12-18-2023, 06:10 PM)Bengalfan4life27c Wrote: Most likely scenario is way Browns are playing they will have their spot locked when we meet week 18 up have a feeling Patriots will beat Broncos this week Broncos feel kind of fraudulent and Belichek wants to win as many as possible before he leaves Steelers this week feels like a defacto playoff game where we will be facing browns backups week 18 I dont know how motivated Chiefs will be week 17 as well if they clinch Sunday If Ravens upset 49ers it will end any realistic shot for the Chiefs have for the 1 seed

Yes this is being much overlooked here. The Browns aren't going to just rollover for us, but there's a decent chance they're locked in at #5 by the time we meet. I wasn't too upset about their comeback win at the weekend for this very reason. We might be playing a Browns team who are making sure they're available for the week after. I think this weekend's run of results really went for us personally.