Joe Mixon next season?

[jj22]

Mixon can still run (as we saw last game), especially if the line is blocking ok. He's got 1 more year in him. His contract is pretty decent for a starting RB with his career. Not as a 300+ carry back, but by a more consistent committee approach he can contribute one more year. We have too many holes to plug to go RB early in the draft, so it'll be hard to put all your eggs in the basket of another late round rb next season.

[depthchart]

Durability is one of Mixon's traits.  He tends to stay healthy.

To me it comes down to where you want to put your Money and higher Draft choices.

May need to focus on other position Groups, keep Mixon and add another running back in the Draft like they did last year

with Chase Brown. (say middle rounds)

-OR -

Keep Mixon and Draft a 1st or 2nd round running back or let Mixon go while Drafting one.

-OR-

Bring in a Free Agent replacement:
(Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, D'Andre Swift, Austin Ekeler, D'onta Foreman)

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

"I sure wish we had a better run game but I also sure wish we keep the same RB rather than upgrading."

- - - - -
Also saw two people saying Mixon's pass blocking improved. I haven't noticed that. They were having to bring Trayveon Williams in to pass block because he isn't terrible at it, but that means pretty much admitting that it's going to be a pass 90% of the time. That PFF thread Holic posted a couple days back Mixon's pass blocking grade was 29.7 and he was the overall 38th ranked RB.

[*bengalfan74*]

(01-09-2024, 03:32 PM)jj22 Wrote: Mixon can still run (as we saw last game), especially if the line is blocking ok. He's got 1 more year in him. His contract is pretty decent for a starting RB with his career. Not as a 300+ carry back, but by a more consistent committee approach he can contribute one more year. We have too many holes to plug to go RB early in the draft, so it'll be hard to put all your eggs in the basket of another late round rb next season.

I'm not so sure you can say Mixon can "still run" based off the results of a meaningless game to a team fielding the 2nd and 3rd sting D as evidence???

[jj22]

(01-09-2024, 04:20 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: I'm not so sure you can say Mixon can "still run" based off the results of a meaningless game to a team fielding the 2nd and 3rd sting D as evidence???

True, but he still flashed when motivated SF and in Primetime games. He's always struggled with vision, couldn't break away for big runs, and danced behind the line. So his abilities hasn't gotten worse I should clarify. 

[*bengalfan74*]

(01-09-2024, 04:19 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: "I sure wish we had a better run game but I also sure wish we keep the same RB rather than upgrading."

- - - - -
Also saw two people saying Mixon's pass blocking improved. I haven't noticed that. They were having to bring Trayveon Williams in to pass block because he isn't terrible at it, but that means pretty much admitting that it's going to be a pass 90% of the time. That PFF thread Holic posted a couple days back Mixon's pass blocking grade was 29.7 and he was the overall 38th ranked RB.

He improved "a bit" in a few games vs. lesser competition is more accurate. At least he got in their way haha. But as you say he's still bad at pass pro. 

I'm not for keeping Mixon as the Bell Cow in any way, shape, or form. But if they can talk him down another million and he's willing I wouldn't be opposed to him staying as part of a rotation. and receiving back. 

I'm 100% on the we need to improve our RB room train. And IMHO we need to reexamine the way we look at the run/scheme/play design. Umm we were the worst team in the NFL in total running yards last season. What we're doing isn't working.

[casear2727]

(01-09-2024, 11:38 AM)Mgbrown66 Wrote: only if he takes another pay cut.

Mixon's salary is only $2.2M in 2024. However, he does have a roster bonus of $3M that comes due March 19th.

[Rotobeast]

I'm not a big Mixon fan, but the man swallowed his pride and took a pay cut to help the team. The team then sat on the extra money this year. I feel he deserves the opportunity to finish his contract.

Sent from my SM-S515DL using Tapatalk

[wanga]

By committee I think he can still be a valuable contributor. Not sure of his financial hit though.

[Essex Johnson]

I still think the biggest issue is the Oline between tackles.. very few times over the past 3 years have we seen holes created for any back very much. the intangibles Mixon offers for the cost I think is worth it especially lack of turnovers, very solid out of backfield and i like what Burrow said about watching on the sideline about maybe changing his issues with going under center... Sunday with some openings Mixon showed he can still motor ok plus Brown is the nice change of pace back, i prefer not to use a higher draft pick on a RB or do i have much faith in a FA coming in .. Mixon stays

[Goalpost]

I wouldn't mind adding another running back...probably thru the draft. The higher needs right now are OL,DL. and WR. But if a RB like Henderson or Benson fall...

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

(01-09-2024, 06:17 PM)Rotobeast Wrote: I'm not a big Mixon fan, but the man swallowed his pride and took a pay cut to help the team. The team then sat on the extra money this year. I feel he deserves the opportunity to finish his contract.

Sent from my SM-S515DL using Tapatalk

He also was due to come back from injury in 2020 shortly after Burrow was injured and then Mixon went from the rehab field, ready to come back to suddenly off for the rest of the year. That knocked off potential career building stats, but that kept him healthy for the 2021 season and, in the long run, his staying on the IR might have helped us get Chase.

[Housh]

If we are planning to keep running out of shotgun then we probbaly dont need Mixon but if we wanna get back under center alot I cant think of another back id want.


Mixon isnt bad at all, Brown just needs more rushes. Atp it should probably be a 50/50 split

[samhain]

I don't mind keeping him at that price, but I still want a bigger, more physical back to run between the tackles. Williams and Evans are dead weight. We need another contributor on the roster that can actually provide something of value. Estime would be a fine addition.

[KillerGoose]

(01-09-2024, 07:49 PM)Housh Wrote: If we are planning to keep running out of shotgun then we probbaly dont need Mixon but if we wanna get back under center alot I cant think of another back id want.


Mixon isnt bad at all, Brown just needs more rushes. Atp it should probably be a 50/50 split

This is a genuine question here, but where is this "under center vs. shotgun" conversation coming from and why is Mixon your top choice? I have been seeing this nearly all season but you're the first person I have asked. 

Mixon is better from shotgun than he is under center. I aggregated some data here and I'll share it below...



So, Mixon averages roughly 11% less yards per attempt when they go under center but gains explosive runs about 30% more. However, he is also tackled for a loss nearly twice as much. Since Mixon came into the league in 2017, there are 23 running backs who have had 500+ carries in that timespan. Mixon ranks 18th out of 23 in yards per attempt on under center rushes. 

This isn't to call you out specifically, but I have seen several people on here and Reddit saying this exact same thing as if Mixon is so much better under center when on an aggregate, he is actually worse. 

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

(01-09-2024, 08:10 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: This is a genuine question here, but where is this "under center vs. shotgun" conversation coming from and why is Mixon your top choice? I have been seeing this nearly all season but you're the first person I have asked. 

Mixon is better from shotgun than he is under center. I aggregated some data here and I'll share it below...



So, Mixon averages roughly 11% less yards per attempt when they go under center but gains explosive runs about 30% more. However, he is also tackled for a loss nearly twice as much. Since Mixon came into the league in 2017, there are 23 running backs who have had 500+ carries in that timespan. Mixon ranks 18th out of 23 in yards per attempt on under center rushes. 

This isn't to call you out specifically, but I have seen several people on here and Reddit saying this exact same thing as if Mixon is so much better under center when on an aggregate, he is actually worse. 

Not a lot of goal line or short yardage situations in shotgun formation.

[KillerGoose]

(01-09-2024, 08:12 PM)Forever Spinning Vinyl Wrote: Not a lot of goal line or short yardage situations in shotgun formation.

Yeah, so I just had that thought myself shortly after I posted that. However, when I run the numbers for non-redzone rushes, it gets much worse for Mixon. Here's the screenshot for that data.



So, the gap in YPC increases in favor of shotgun rushes, the advantage for explosives significantly decreases and the tackles for loss ratio tightens a bit but is still pretty wide. 

[NUGDUKWE]

(01-09-2024, 08:12 PM)Forever Spinning Vinyl Wrote: Not a lot of goal line or short yardage situations in shotgun formation.

This is kind of what I wad thinking. I saw earlier in the year that he has been historically better from shotgun then under center but his explosive plays went up. I do think the short yardage atleast plays a factor in his less ypc and probably in his rank among other backs as not all backs run in the short yardage situations he does. I would imagine he is about the same either or and there is probably an underlying reason why he has a higher explosive run rate under center.

[NUGDUKWE]

(01-09-2024, 08:18 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Yeah, so I just had that thought myself shortly after I posted that. However, when I run the numbers for non-redzone rushes, it gets much worse for Mixon. Here's the screenshot for that data.



So, the gap in YPC increases in favor of shotgun rushes, the advantage for explosives significantly decreases and the tackles for loss ratio tightens a bit but is still pretty wide. 

I still think there is an explanation. Just thinking it out that how much do we go under center and how many are runs or passes. Not really asking you to look that up but if we run a heavy majority of the time when we are under center. Than defenses might sell out a bit and would explain both why he has struggled more yet also had explosive plays tick up. Play the run heavy and you either stuff it or potentially give up a bigger run if you fail to make the tackle crowding the line? Makes sense to me anyway.

[KillerGoose]

(01-09-2024, 08:30 PM)NUGDUKWE Wrote: I still think there is an explanation. Just thinking it out that how much do we go under center and how many are runs or passes. Not really asking you to look that up but if we run a heavy majority of the time when we are under center. Than defenses might sell out a bit and would explain both why he has struggled more yet also had explosive plays tick up. Play the run heavy and you either stuff it or potentially give up a bigger run if you fail to make the tackle crowding the line? Makes sense to me anyway.

I have thought the difference was just personnel based. It isn't often you see a team come out in shotgun with one WR and two TE or even two WRs. The most common personnel grouping in shotgun is 11, so the defense is typically playing with an extra DB and there's a little more space to work with. Compare that to under center where you may see some extra TE looks and three linebackers on the field it's a bit harder to run against. 

As for explosives being higher, I think that is a product of the varied looks you get from under center. You can attack the edges easier, for example. Edge runs produce a higher rate of big plays, but also lose yardage more often than a run up the middle. 

All this being said, it has just been strange to see so many people talking about how good Mixon is under center when there is virtually nothing to back it up. That isn't to say it's his fault, to be clear. That's not meant as a dog on him or anything.