2024 Reds starting rotation ??

[*bengalfan74*]

Who are the starters this season ?


https://www.mlb.com/reds/news/reds-rotation-options-for-2024

I'd guess barring injury of course, the locks are:

1. Greene - Big $$$ long term contract. They are banking on him.

2. Ashcraft - Had the big dip in production last season but overall he was one of better pieces in rotation last season.

3. Abbott - Came out last season on fire !! Then ran out of steam late. But I'd say he has a spot barring something major.

Here's where it starts getting a bit murky.

I'd assume they're planning on Montas stepping right into starting rotation. And if that falters they have options. So that makes four, who's five ?

I'm going to say Lodolo. That gives us two lefties in rotation and last season like first four games he was our best pitcher.

That leaves for the bullpen/minors:

Martinez, Phillips, Williamson, Richardson, and another one not mentioned is Chase Petty. I'm feeling a good bit better about the Reds ability to have a starting pitching staff able to last into September this season.

[CJD]

(01-13-2024, 07:28 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Who are the starters this season ?


https://www.mlb.com/reds/news/reds-rotation-options-for-2024

I'd guess barring injury of course, the locks are:

1. Greene - Big $$$ long term contract. They are banking on him.

2. Ashcraft - Had the big dip in production last season but overall he was one of better pieces in rotation last season.

3. Abbott - Came out last season on fire !! Then ran out of steam late. But I'd say he has a spot barring something major.

Here's where it starts getting a bit murky.

I'd assume they're planning on Montas stepping right into starting rotation. And if that falters they have options. So that makes four, who's five ?

I'm going to say Lodolo. That gives us two lefties in rotation and last season like first four games he was our best pitcher.

That leaves for the bullpen/minors:

Martinez, Phillips, Williamson, Richardson, and another one not mentioned is Chase Petty. I'm feeling a good bit better about the Reds ability to have a starting pitching staff able to last into September this season.

I think you nailed it. I think the plan going into spring training will be Greene, Ashcraft, Abbott, Montas and Lodolo and then Martinez will come up from the bullpen, and Phillips, Williamson, Richardson and Petty will be in line, in that order, if injuries or ineffectiveness occurs.

[samhain]

Greene's contract isn't anything crazy. It's just more than what a rookie deal would be. Very reasonable is he continues to progress.

My guess is the rotation looks something like this:

Greene

Abbott

Montas

Ashcraft

Lodolo

Plenty of moving parts here, mainly Montas and Lodolo and their health. In a perfect world, this is the starting 5. Frankly, I view Greene and Abbott as interchangeable. Hunter could create distance if he shows the brilliance we've seen if flashes consistently. Abbott may not have the ceiling, but I think his game is less dependent on physical dominance. He just needs to be monitored for overuse. I think they used him a lot more than they would have liked last year, mainly because injuries gave them little choice.

[*bengalfan74*]

(01-13-2024, 10:26 PM)samhain Wrote: Greene's contract isn't anything crazy.  It's just more than what a rookie deal would be.  Very reasonable is he continues to progress.

My guess is the rotation looks something like this:

Greene

Abbott

Montas

Ashcraft

Lodolo

Plenty of moving parts here, mainly Montas and Lodolo and their health.  In a perfect world, this is the starting 5.  Frankly, I view Greene and Abbott as interchangeable.  Hunter could create distance if he shows the brilliance we've seen if flashes consistently.  Abbott may not have the ceiling, but I think his game is less dependent on physical dominance.  He just needs to be monitored for overuse.  I think they used him a lot more than they would have liked last year, mainly because injuries gave them little choice.

I don't disagree about Greene's contract, however. I feel they were/are viewing Greene as the ACE. And to a degree I feel this is kinda a crossroads season for him. I strongly feel he needs to develop a 3rd pitch he can throw for strikes, an offspeed pitch. He gets hit way to hard at times, lots of HR's allowed.

We need him to win more than 4 or 5 games this season and pitch more than 115 innings.

[samhain]

(01-13-2024, 11:10 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: I don't disagree about Greene's contract, however. I feel they were/are viewing Greene as the ACE. And to a degree I feel this is kinda a crossroads season for him. I strongly feel he needs to develop a 3rd pitch he can throw for strikes, an offspeed pitch. He gets hit way to hard at times, lots of HR's allowed.

We need him to win more than 4 or 5 games this season and pitch more than 115 innings.

I agree.  To be honest, I'd be happy if the guy just stayed healthy all year.  He's never out there long enough to gain any consistency.  It always seems like when he returns, it takes him several games to get back to form.

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

Not dissing the Montas signing at all, but I wouldn't mind seeing some quality long relief in the pen instead of another starter. That's been one of my bigger complaints about this roster since Bell has been here, other than venting about Bell in general.
Starter - ERA - 2023 record . . . team record when starting
Greene - 4.82 - 4-7 . . . 9-13
Abbott - 3.87 - 8-6 . . . 14-7
Ashcraft - 4.76 - 7-9 . . . 11-15
Lodolo - 6.29 - 2-1 . . . 4-3 (7 starts) career numbers - 4.31 - 6-8 . . . 13-13
Williamson - 4.46 - 5-5 . . . 13-10

They're all young. Some may drop, but I have to believe that they'll improve with more experience. Williamson started off rough and spent the rest of the season slowly dropping that ERA. My only concern with that starting rotation is health. I'd rather have a staff with three starting lefties getting valuable MLB experience with a potential spot starter ready and waiting in the bullpen while holding down long relief. I honestly believe that Williamson will gain more from being the 5th starter in the big leagues than spending most of the season in AAA waiting for someone to get injured or fail. That's the job for Phillips, Richardson and Petty.

Plus, every opponent will have to face at least two lefties in each series when they face the Reds with the above rotation. Last year, the Reds were 31-20 when the three lefties started . . . 27-40 with Greene, Ashcraft and Lively. In 16 more starts(67), the Reds won 4 less games with their main three righties last year than with the three lefties(51 starts).