Should Wilkins be #1 FA target if not tagged?

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(01-15-2024, 08:06 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: If the Dolphins end up not tagging Christian Wilkins, should he be the Bengals #1 priority once the legal tampering period rolls around?

Dolphins GM Chris Grier says Christian Wilkins bet on himself and it paid off for him. He earned the right to be a free agent. They felt they previously made a strong offer.

— Joe Schad (@schadjoe) January 15, 2024

 

Yes, Wilkins makes the most sense for us. He is just what we need and Hobby coached him at Clemson as well. Perfect fit as he can 
rush the passer as a 3-tech and stop the run, better than BJ Hill which is actually saying something as BJ is very solid and was our 2nd
best DL this year. I love Madubuike the most of any pass rushing 3-tech but he only has 1 year of great production.

Wilkins just fits the most of any FA for us this year in what we need. Nice hearing he should be available.

[*Synric*]

(01-16-2024, 02:32 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: But he isn't a NT/run stopper. 

If we pay $15-$20 mil for Wilkins (which I admit is unlikely), you still need someone to fill Reader's spot, & Hill isn't it. $10 mil for a reserve DT is an awful lot. 

I mean, we rotate DT's, but man. I think it is like cutting Mixon if we land Henry. It is an unlikely scenario to begin with, but cap-wise it is almost mandatory. 

The only way I could see it not happening (in a Wilkingls scenario) is if we get some serious cap savings from restructures AND/OR Tee/Reader walk.

Christian Wilkins plays alot of shade NT with Zach Seiler as the 3t. The Dolphins 4 man front is Melvin Ingram, Zach Seiler, Christian Wilkins, and Emmanuel Ogbah. I know Raekwon Davis is listed as the "Nose Tackle" but he only plays 45% of the snaps he's like Josh Tupou for the Bengals. Wilkins is also one of the best run defending Defensive Tackles in the NFL. 

[SunsetBengal]

I'm going to take the unpopular opinion here and predict that Christian Wilkins would NOT look like the same player in the AFCN. Of his 9 sacks this year, 6 were against the 3 crappiest offenses on their schedule (NE, NYJ, CAR). He's not a true NT, and being able to afford to pay him as the 3T would likely involve getting rid of BJ Hill, whom I think is a great value at his current contract, and would still leave the Bengals wanting for a starting NT.

[*Synric*]

(01-16-2024, 03:48 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: I'm going to take the unpopular opinion here and predict that Christian Wilkins would NOT look like the same player in the AFCN.  Of his 9 sacks this year, 6 were against the 3 crappiest offenses on their schedule (NE, NYJ, CAR).  He's not a true NT, and being able to afford to pay him as the 3T would likely involve getting rid of BJ Hill, whom I think is a great value at his current contract, and would still leave the Bengals wanting for a starting NT.

BJ Hill is in the last year of his contract and it's reasonable at 1y 10m. They have plenty of cap space and I see Christian Wilkins as a guy they can build the DT room around.

It's the straight up paid out money this year that could be the biggest issue. Burrow just got a huge payout just a few months ago, tagging Tee is guaranteed money, possible big Ja'Marr Chase payout by say September, and then adding in a 4 year 100m ish contract for a DT or any player for that matter. That's alot of money in a single year span.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-16-2024, 04:19 PM)Synric Wrote: BJ Hill is in the last year of his contract and it's reasonable at 1y 10m. They have plenty of cap space and I see Christian Wilkins as a guy they can build the DT room around.

It's the straight up paid out money this year that could be the biggest issue. Burrow just got a huge payout just a few months ago, tagging Tee is guaranteed money, possible big Ja'Marr Chase payout by say September, and then adding in a 4 year 100m ish contract for a DT or any player for that matter. That's alot of money in a single year span.

He's heading into his age 29 season. There's only so long you can build around him. Honestly whomever Reader's replacement is needs to be a draft pick. Same with whomever we replace Hill with heading into 2025.

Right now for 2024...
Hubbard paid and heading into age 29 season
Hendrickson paid and heading into age 30 season
BJ Hill paid and heading into age 29 season

Then if you add Wilkins paid and heading into his age 29 season, you've got yourself an old and expensive group. Eventually the Bengals are going to have to develop some of their draft picks. Kind of the same spot they are with the OL. At some point you need to add and develop young guys to mix with the older and more expensive vets.

[jj22]

(01-16-2024, 12:50 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: Eli made basically league min. Chido will cost around $10 mil per year. It is not remotely the same thing. 

Eli didn't make league min (with the Bengals) until maybe this year (I'm not sure what Dolphins paid him), and no one is paying Awuzie 10m a year. They didn't even pay him that when he was in his prime and healthy. Why do you think someone will now? Coming off the year he had?

[Whatever]

(01-16-2024, 04:32 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: He's heading into his age 29 season. There's only so long you can build around him. Honestly whomever Reader's replacement is needs to be a draft pick. Same with whomever we replace Hill with heading into 2025.

Right now for 2024...
Hubbard paid and heading into age 29 season
Hendrickson paid and heading into age 30 season
BJ Hill paid and heading into age 29 season

Then if you add Wilkins paid and heading into his age 29 season, you've got yourself an old and expensive group. Eventually the Bengals are going to have to develop some of their draft picks. Kind of the same spot they are with the OL. At some point you need to add and develop young guys to mix with the older and more expensive vets.

Hubbard has been talked about as a potential cap casualty with Murphy emerging.

Linemen also tend to be productive longer than players at other position groups.  A DT heading into their age 30 season is a lot different than a WR.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-16-2024, 04:47 PM)Whatever Wrote: Hubbard has been talked about as a potential cap casualty with Murphy emerging.

Linemen also tend to be productive longer than players at other position groups.  A DT heading into their age 30 season is a lot different than a WR.

I'm admittedly not 100% on it when it comes to injury settlements and when you can and can't release injured players, but doesn't Hubbard needing surgery complicate cutting him? If he sticks around for a bit then he'd hit his roster and workout bonuses.

Assuming the Bengals would be willing to have $4m in dead cap space to begin with. Hubbard also was their Walter Payton MoY nominee for both 2021 and 2022 and a team captain for the last 3 years straight, so keep that in mind when it comes to the Bengals and how they operate.

[SunsetBengal]

(01-16-2024, 04:32 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: He's heading into his age 29 season. There's only so long you can build around him. Honestly whomever Reader's replacement is needs to be a draft pick. Same with whomever we replace Hill with heading into 2025.

Right now for 2024...
Hubbard paid and heading into age 29 season
Hendrickson paid and heading into age 30 season
BJ Hill paid and heading into age 29 season

Then if you add Wilkins paid and heading into his age 29 season, you've got yourself an old and expensive group. Eventually the Bengals are going to have to develop some of their draft picks. Kind of the same spot they are with the OL. At some point you need to add and develop young guys to mix with the older and more expensive vets.

It's kind of spooky when you take a look at the starters whom the Bengals have drafted and developed on either side of the line, Williams, Volson, and Hubbard.  Not that they haven't drafted plenty of others, they have just all failed to launch.  For a team that plays in such a trenches centric division, it's going to get really expensive having to keep loading up on blockers and pass rushers via free agency.

[Bengalholic]

(01-16-2024, 04:32 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: He's heading into his age 29 season. There's only so long you can build around him. Honestly whomever Reader's replacement is needs to be a draft pick. Same with whomever we replace Hill with heading into 2025.

Right now for 2024...
Hubbard paid and heading into age 29 season
Hendrickson paid and heading into age 30 season
BJ Hill paid and heading into age 29 season

Then if you add Wilkins paid and heading into his age 29 season, you've got yourself an old and expensive group. Eventually the Bengals are going to have to develop some of their draft picks. Kind of the same spot they are with the OL. At some point you need to add and develop young guys to mix with the older and more expensive vets.

He won't turn 29 until late December...so it's basically his age 28 season.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-16-2024, 05:24 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: He won't turn 29 until late December...so it's basically his age 28 season.

Basically his rookie season, too. 

It is the same standard for every single player. We don't need to start determining "basically" on a case-by-case basis because then we need to do it case-by-case for like 2,500 players and another 300+ every year each draft to determine their basically status.

OR we can just have a single standard that applies to everyone.

He will be 28 years and 9 months for Week 1.  He turns 29 in the calandar year 2024. 2024 is his age 29 season. This only ever comes up as disputed when someone wants a Bengal (or potential Bengal in this case) to be considered basically a year younger than everyone else in the league operating under the same standard.

[*Synric*]

(01-16-2024, 05:47 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Basically his rookie season, too. 

It is the same standard for every single player. We don't need to start determining "basically" on a case-by-case basis because then we need to do it case-by-case for like 2,500 players and another 300+ every year each draft to determine their basically status.

OR we can just have a single standard that applies to everyone.

He will be 28 years and 9 months for Week 1.  He turns 29 in 2024. 2024 is his age 29 season.

On a 4 year contract he will turn 32 in December the last year of his deal which would make 28-31 the primary ages he will be a Bengal. Youre paying for 4 years of consistency and a guy that can handle a ton of snaps. 

[*bfine32*]

(01-16-2024, 05:47 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Basically his rookie season, too. 

It is the same standard for every single player. We don't need to start determining "basically" on a case-by-case basis because then we need to do it case-by-case for like 2,500 players and another 300+ every year each draft to determine their basically status.

OR we can just have a single standard that applies to everyone.

He will be 28 years and 9 months for Week 1.  He turns 29 in the calandar year 2024. 2024 is his age 29 season. This only ever comes up as disputed when someone wants a Bengal (or potential Bengal in this case) to be considered basically a year younger than everyone else in the league operating under the same standard.

And some use "29-Year" as a way to make them seem to have more wear and tear. For instance you compared him to Hubbard and Hill; both of whom were drafted a year earlier than CW.

Me personally I consider players entering their () years in the NFL. maybe i'm just weird that way. I consider 2024 to be Wilkins' 5th year and Bj/Sam's 6th year

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-16-2024, 06:00 PM)bfine32 Wrote: And some use "29-Year" as a way to make them seem to have more wear and tear. For instance you compared him to Hubbard and Hill; both of whom were drafted a year earlier than CW.

Me personally I consider players entering their () years in the NFL. maybe i'm just weird that way. I consider 2024 to be Wilkins' 5th year and Bj/Sam's 6th year

Or some use "29-Year" because it's literally the standard and you can instantly find it for every single player who is playing or has played in the NFL and you don't have to look at exactly what day and month their birthday is, figure out how many games into the season that would be, when week 1 is going to start that year, etc. Even if we were going to say Wilkins being 28 years and 9 months at the start of the regular season was his age 28 season, that's still not young and my entire point of needing to work in some youth (and inexpensive youth at that) and develop it to go with the older expensive guys still stands.

The problem with your way is Brandon Weeden's 1st year was his age 29 season, Margus Hunt's 1st year was his age 26 season, and Ja'Marr Chase's 1st year was his age 21 season. Chase's 5th year he's in his prime for his age 25 season, but Weeden's 5th year he's in his age 33 season and already pretty much done. Then you have other cases like Cameron Wake whose 1st year (in the NFL) was his age 27 season and Andrew Hawkins whose 1st year (in the NFL) was his age 25 season, but they both spent multiple years playing professional football in the CFL before that.

[Bengalholic]

(01-16-2024, 05:47 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Basically his rookie season, too. 

It is the same standard for every single player. We don't need to start determining "basically" on a case-by-case basis because then we need to do it case-by-case for like 2,500 players and another 300+ every year each draft to determine their basically status.

OR we can just have a single standard that applies to everyone.

He will be 28 years and 9 months for Week 1.  He turns 29 in the calandar year 2024. 2024 is his age 29 season. This only ever comes up as disputed when someone wants a Bengal (or potential Bengal in this case) to be considered basically a year younger than everyone else in the league operating under the same standard.

Whatever works for you brother. 

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-16-2024, 05:53 PM)Synric Wrote: On a 4 year contract he will turn 32 in December the last year of his deal which would make 28-31 the primary ages he will be a Bengal. Youre paying for 4 years of consistency and a guy that can handle a ton of snaps. 

I do like how durable he has been with no games missed the last 3 years. Playing over 80% of the team's snaps the last two years, too, no less. That's real impressive for a big guy.

[007BengalsFan]

Isnt the whole we cant sign someone age 30 thing what caused us to lose Whitworth? Then Bengals didnt want to sign him to a long term contract because he was 30 so first they only extend him for 2 years. After that contract was up he is now 32 so they only extend him for 1 year. After that contract is up he is now 33 and the Bengals want him to sign another 1 year contract? The Bengals kept jerking Whitworth around because he was 30+ so he signed with L.A. and end up helping them win the Super Bowl instead of us. Its crazy so many people dismiss these guys who are close to 30 years old like they arent of value anymore. Logan's Run, you need to get rid of them when they hit 30

[007BengalsFan]

(01-16-2024, 09:48 AM)Essex Johnson Wrote: I tend to agree not tags but disagree with your logic that we get nothing  in a trade this offseason and totally disagree of trading Tee coming into this year, you had him locked up and fully expected a healthy Burrow,  why trade him coming into season.

The reason you would have traded him before this past season is so you can get a 1st and 3rd round pick to replace him when he is in the last year of his contract.  Its about having some vision and planning ahead.  I even brought this up in the spring when the trade was being talked about, what happens if Tee gets injured then is a free agent after the season.  That is exactly what ended up happening.   The Bengals not trading Tee was a huge missed opportunity to get draft picks to not only replace Tee but to lower the salary cap instead of signing him to a long term contract or tagging him.

[*jason*]

(01-16-2024, 07:13 PM)007BengalsFan Wrote: Isnt the whole we cant sign someone age 30 thing what caused us to lose Whitworth? Then Bengals didnt want to sign him to a long term contract because he was 30 so first they only extend him for 2 years. After that contract was up he is now 32 so they only extend him for 1 year. After that contract is up he is now 33 and the Bengals want him to sign another 1 year contract? The Bengals kept jerking Whitworth around because he was 30+ so he signed with L.A. and end up helping them win the Super Bowl instead of us. Its crazy so many people dismiss these guys who are close to 30 years old like they arent of value anymore. Logan's Run, you need to get rid of them when they hit 30

There are exceptions, but how'd that 3rd contract work out for Geno Atkins? You talk of getting a 1st and a 3rd for Tee... The Bengals spent a 1st and a 2nd on Whitworth replacements... They were already here, and they so didn't pan out. We're in our lil championship window, and personally I'm not concerned with draft picks all that much. I'd trade our first this year in a heartbeat for a known stud commodity like the Rams did when they beat us.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(01-16-2024, 05:53 PM)Synric Wrote: On a 4 year contract he will turn 32 in December the last year of his deal which would make 28-31 the primary ages he will be a Bengal. Youre paying for 4 years of consistency and a guy that can handle a ton of snaps. 

Well worth the investment IMO.

(01-16-2024, 06:22 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: I do like how durable he has been with no games missed the last 3 years. Playing over 80% of the team's snaps the last two years, too, no less. That's real impressive for a big guy.

No doubt, that is impressive and maybe the biggest reason I would love to bring in Christian Wilkins.