Our drafting has sucked lately

[WeezyBengal]

It's late January, cold, rainy, and I'm a little pissed we weren't playing this weekend...so, let's talk about our recent drafts.

This current team's success was mainly built on can't miss draft picks and free agent signings.

The non drafted signings/trades of impact players over the past 3 years include:
Reader, Awuzie, Hendrickson, Hilton, Larry Ogunjobi (remember that guy?), Eli Apple, Vonn Bell, Alex Cappa, Ted Karras, B.J. Hill (trade), and Orlando Brown Jr

That is an absolute **** ton of contribution from free agents. If you couple that with the can't miss picks of Burrow and Chase, that is the reason for the success.

This leaves the question of "well, what about the draft picks?"

I wasn't sure when to start this sample size, so I went back to 2019 when the ZT era began. Since then (and not including the most recent class, because its honestly too early to tell), there are a total of six quality players from those four draft classes, and two of those were can't miss, no brainer picks (Burrow, Chase). Jonah Williams, Germain Pratt, Tee Higgins, and Logan Wilson round out that group.

What is even more concerning is how bad we've been at drafting in the trenches. Since 2018, here is a list of our OL/DL player draft picks:

Myles Murphy
Zach Carter
Cordell Volson
Jackson Carman
Joseph Ossai
Cam Sample
Tyler Shelvin
Dante Smith
Trey Hill
Wyatt Hubert
Khalid Kareem
Hakeem Adeniji
Rebel Wren
Michael Jordan G
Billy Price
Sam Hubbard
Andrew brown
Rod Taylor

and if we want to keep going through 2013:

Jordan Willis
Carl Lawson
Ryan Glasnow
Andrew Billings
Christian Westerman
Ced Ogbuehi
Jake Fisher
Marcus Hardison
Will Clarke
Russell Bodine
Margus Hunt
Tanner Hawkinson
Reid Fragel
Tj Johnson

That's what, two pretty good players (Hubbard, Lawson), an average-below average player (Volson), and a guy that showed some potential this year (Murphy)? That is SHOCKINGLY bad. 4 decent players in 10 years. I mean the majority of those guys aren't even back up quality players. Just HUGE misses.

So, the point of this whole thing is that with looming cap ramifications for star players, drafting now more than ever is going to be MASSIVELY important and we 1000% need to be better at it. I have high hopes for the 2023 class, but we REALLY need to start hitting on more picks, especially on the offensive and defensive lines.

I'm not sure who's responsible for talent evaluation along those fronts, but they should really be questioned by the results over the past decade.

[QueenCity]

Majority of the O-Line and D-Line picks were lottery tickets.... if we are being honest. I still blame Frank Pollack personally but as he isn't going anywhere... what can you do?

Secondary is young.. I think next season will be the deciding factor on that one.

[Truck_1_0_1_]

You forgot Jonah.

I think we can all agree that the trench drafting has not been great, but:

1. We've brought in a ton of FAs (as you noted), so they have not been as big a priority (clearly).
2. The vast majority of these picks are 3rd round and below: only Carman, Murphy, Jonah and Price were 1st/2nd rounders. As we all know, there are more misses, the later in the draft you go.
3. Hubbard, Sample, Murphy, Jonah, Volson have all carved out nice little careers as starters or valuable role players and none of them are truly ghastly (though Volson is still the weak link, of course).

If we were drafting trenches in the first or second every draft and had this many hits, then there is a very serious issue, but yes, to have THIS MANY picks in the lower round with no decent starter on D and only one O, is bad.

[Garrus]

I think with how small their scouting department is, it is incredible how well they do. Not that necessarily having more scouts would make them do better, but I doubt it could hurt either.

[WeezyBengal]

(01-29-2024, 05:54 PM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: You forgot Jonah.

I think we can all agree that the trench drafting has not been great, but:

1. We've brought in a ton of FAs (as you noted), so they have not been as big a priority (clearly).
2. The vast majority of these picks are 3rd round and below: only Carman, Murphy, Jonah and Price were 1st/2nd rounders. As we all know, there are more misses, the later in the draft you go.
3. Hubbard, Sample, Murphy, Jonah, Volson have all carved out nice little careers as starters or valuable role players and none of them are truly ghastly (though Volson is still the weak link, of course).

If we were drafting trenches in the first or second every draft and had this many hits, then there is a very serious issue, but yes, to have THIS MANY picks in the lower round with no decent starter on D and only one O, is bad.

Again, these are later round picks, but you need to have success there as well. I'm not talking 75% success rate, I'm saying give me at least like a 10% success rate. 

And again, it's not so much that they are missing, but they are missing MASSIVELY on these picks. A lot of these guys never even saw the field. 

[Whatever]

(01-29-2024, 05:47 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: It's late January, cold, rainy, and I'm a little pissed we weren't playing this weekend...so, let's talk about our recent drafts.

This current team's success was mainly built on can't miss draft picks and free agent signings.

The non drafted signings/trades of impact players over the past 3 years include:
Reader, Awuzie, Hendrickson, Hilton, Larry Ogunjobi (remember that guy?), Eli Apple, Vonn Bell, Alex Cappa, Ted Karras, B.J. Hill (trade), and Orlando Brown Jr

That is an absolute **** ton of contribution from free agents. If you couple that with the can't miss picks of Burrow and Chase, that is the reason for the success.

This leaves the question of "well, what about the draft picks?"

I wasn't sure when to start this sample size, so I went back to 2019 when the ZT era began. Since then (and not including the most recent class, because its honestly too early to tell), there are a total of six quality players from those four draft classes, and two of those were can't miss, no brainer picks (Burrow, Chase). Jonah Williams, Germain Pratt, Tee Higgins, and Logan Wilson round out that group.

What is even more concerning is how bad we've been at drafting in the trenches. Since 2018, here is a list of our OL/DL player draft picks:

Myles Murphy
Zach Carter
Cordell Volson
Jackson Carman
Joseph Ossai
Cam Sample
Tyler Shelvin
Dante Smith
Trey Hill
Wyatt Hubert
Khalid Kareem
Hakeem Adeniji
Rebel Wren
Michael Jordan G
Billy Price
Sam Hubbard
Andrew brown
Rod Taylor

and if we want to keep going through 2013:

Jordan Willis
Carl Lawson
Ryan Glasnow
Andrew Billings
Christian Westerman
Ced Ogbuehi
Jake Fisher
Marcus Hardison
Will Clarke
Russell Bodine
Margus Hunt
Tanner Hawkinson
Reid Fragel
Tj Johnson

That's what, two pretty good players (Hubbard, Lawson), an average-below average player (Volson), and a guy that showed some potential this year (Murphy)? That is SHOCKINGLY bad. 4 decent players in 10 years. I mean the majority of those guys aren't even back up quality players. Just HUGE misses.

So, the point of this whole thing is that with looming cap ramifications for star players, drafting now more than ever is going to be MASSIVELY important and we 1000% need to be better at it. I have high hopes for the 2023 class, but we REALLY need to start hitting on more picks, especially on the offensive and defensive lines.

I'm not sure who's responsible for talent evaluation along those fronts, but they should really be questioned by the results over the past decade.

It's honestly not as bad you think.  Keep in mind that only about 40% of 4th round picks wind up playing out their rookie deals and getting a second contract someplace else.  Guys like Cam Sample, who's been a solid 3 year rotation player, would be a hit by virtually any NFL GM's standards.  Guys like Trey Hill and Adeniji would be considered hits based on the round they were drafted.

Even though Billy Price was a disappointment to the fan base, he was still traded for a starting player that got a 2nd contract and he's still a starter in the league.

Part of the issue is that the team was so good at drafting DL in the middle rounds for so long (Geno, Peko, MJ, Geathers, Lawson, etc.) that our fan base thinks that's the norm, not the exception.  Now that they've fallen back to league average, people think the system is busted.

[Frank Booth]

that jackson carman miss was huge

Ossai is a mentally weak if he cannot get over the 2022 afc chip

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

The last 5 guys, by draft year, who were both drafted by and became a 1st Team All-Pro with the...

Bengals
Geno Atkins, 2010
Andrew Whitworth, 2006
Chad Johnso, 2001
Willie Anderson, 1996
David Fulcher, 1986

Ravens
Kyle Hamilton, 2022
Devin Duvernay, 2020
Lamar Jackson, 2018
Mark Andrews, 2018
Marlon Humphrey, 2017

Browns
Nick Chubb, 2018
Myles Garrett, 2017
Joel Bitonio, 2014
Josh Gordon, 2012
Joe Thomas, 2007

Steelers
TJ Watt, 2017
Le'Veon Bell, 2013
David DeCastro, 2012
Cameron Heyward, 2011
Antonio Brown, 2010

[*ochocincos*]

(01-29-2024, 07:45 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: that jackson carman miss was huge

Ossai is a mentally weak if he cannot get over the 2022 afc chip

I think the team bumped Carman to backup too quick and he could have been as good, if not better than, Volson at LG by this point, but it is what it is at this point.
During that 2021 draft, I wanted Sam Cosmi over Jackson Carman.
Cosmi has turned into a pretty good OL for the Commanders.
He was solid at RT for them, but he really has come into his own inside full-time this past year.

[*Synric*]

It's a good thing there will always be another draft. It looks like a good OL class might as well draft three! Stick with the strength of the draft class lol.

[Soonerpeace]

The draft has not produced other than Logan Wilson much from the #3/4 spot. Battle YTBD but looks promising. Baltimore has hit with Linderbaum, Flowers, and Hamilton. Those are first rounders but Hill, Murphy etc haven’t yet. I would say our drafts have been average at best.

[PDub80]

This is just untrue....

Bengals have consistently been one of the best in the league in starters drafted... all while winning the division, playoff runs, & a Superbowl.

[puddycat]

Ossai isn't playing badly, he's just not playing. He graded out better than every DL except Hendrickson and Reader. Murphy was always a project.
It's worse on the offensive side. Price was a total bust; he couldn't even back up guard.. on the Bengals. For a #11 pick, Jonah is just OK. Carman couldn't step in, couldn't be developed, and couldn't move inside. That's BAD for a 2nd round player. And the sheer number of failed 4th round OL picks point to a lack of competent drafting and development.

[NATI BENGALS]

Man. That list is horrifying.

They need to completely change how and who evaluates the OL. Just blindfold a monkey and let him throw darts and we will hit more often.

[NUGDUKWE]

What's most concerning is the OL drafting. Atleast according yo Goodberry the most consistent way to draft O linemen is to look for guys with good tape and who also test well athletically. Really seems simple enough. Not sure what the Bengals approach is to evaluating that position group. I saw a tweet earlier that pointed out when we took Carman it was two years back to back we went LSU in 1 and Clemson in 2 so hopefully that wasn't our thinking.

[Destro]

(01-29-2024, 10:39 PM)PDub80 Wrote: This is just untrue....

Bengals have consistently been one of the best in the league in starters drafted... all while winning the division, playoff runs, & a Superbowl.

Ahhh. You can defend the drafting quality, and have a point, but just because high percentage were able to start here does not mean they were good. If you have few FA and sign those on your roster, you will have a large numbers of starters drafted. We sorely remember a slew of DBs we drafted who were blah and started until they departed. 

[casear2727]

(01-29-2024, 07:45 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: that jackson carman miss was huge

Ossai is a mentally weak if he cannot get over the 2022 afc chip

Someone on this message board guessed that was the issue, it's kind of dumb, of course it isnt true.  Anyone who ever played a down of football isnt going to let one dumb play impact their next full season,  It is crazy to even consider it.   Ossai obviously has other issues, him not getting snaps could be anything.

[casear2727]

(01-29-2024, 09:36 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: The draft has not produced other than Logan Wilson much from the #3/4 spot. Battle YTBD but looks promising. Baltimore has hit with Linderbaum, Flowers, and Hamilton. Those are first rounders but Hill, Murphy etc haven’t yet. I would say our drafts have been average at best.

Hamilton and Linderbaum were 1st rounders in the same draft and Hamilton went #14. Linderbaum went really early for a center these days at 25.  Both no brainer picks.

That said, the Ravens entire scouting dept > Benglas personnel dept quite easily in the draft and free agency.  

[casear2727]

(01-29-2024, 11:37 PM)NUGDUKWE Wrote:  I saw a tweet earlier that pointed out when we took Carman it was two years back to back we went LSU in 1 and Clemson in 2 so hopefully that wasn't our thinking.

What?  Seriously?  We suck at drafting trenches but we surely are not this stupid....  (I hope). Carman was a Mike Brown pick, that was exposed very early on.

[Whatever]

(01-30-2024, 01:23 AM)casear2727 Wrote: What?  Seriously?  We suck at drafting trenches but we surely are not this stupid....  (I hope). Carman was a Mike Brown pick, that was exposed very early on.

What's funny is Carman graded better than Volson did at LG when they were both rookies.  He actually didn't allow a sack.  But for some reason, Volson gets infinite leash despite still not being able to pick up a stunt after 2 years.

Of course, Pollack kept Hopkins on the bench for Price, as well.