Newton or sweat?

[Jpoore]

I know there is a big gap now, but I think it’s gonna be a 8-10 player gap come draft time. Regardless, I believe both are gonna be PHENOMENAL players, but 2 vastly different ones. Both will or should be available when we pick. Who would you choose if you had to choose one and why?

[Essex Johnson]

(02-03-2024, 11:12 PM)Jpoore Wrote: I know there is a big gap now, but I think it’s gonna be a 8-10 player gap come draft time. Regardless, I believe both are gonna be PHENOMENAL players, but 2 vastly different ones. Both will or should be available when we pick. Who would you choose if you had to choose one and why?

Myself I prefer Byron Murphy, I think he might still be around in 2nd round pick, that way we can focus on Oline in 1st round, but if you asked me to choose I am going with Newton, two words why "Geno Atkins" enough said...

[WhoDeyK]

(02-04-2024, 12:42 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: Myself I prefer Byron Murphy, I think he might still be around in 2nd round pick, that way we can focus on Oline in 1st round, but if you asked me to choose I am going with Newton, two words why "Geno Atkins" enough said...

I agree with you Essex. I prefer Byron Murphy as well. He is incredibly quick off the snap and the way he holds the line against double teams at his size is pretty incredible. I like Newton and Sweat as well though. My order would be: Murphy, Newton, Sweat. And I think Fiske is now in my top 5 DT rankings.

[*Synric*]

T'Vondre Sweat looked alot better day 2 and 3 of the Senior Bowl but it was just more tape confirmation. Testing is what will drag Swest into the first round or keep him around that early day 2 guy. I don't think he will test as well has his nfl comparisons Vita Vea and Haloti Ngata. It feels like 50/50 odds he will test at all other than bench.

[CJD]

I would take Newton.

Pass rushers are just...more valuable than run stoppers. At their absolute maximum potential reached, Newton could have a Chris Jones-esque impact on a pass rush.

At his absolute maximum potential reached, Sweat would be DJ Reader-esque.

I understand the argument that we are losing Reader in free agency (most likely), so we should replace him in kind, but we don't currently have a player like Newton on our roster and the players of the same profile in free agency will either demand around 25M AAV (Chris Jones, Christian Wilkins, Justin Madubuike), whereas the players like Reader (Grover Stewart, Daquan Jones, Shelby Harris) could likely be had for significantly less.

I think NTs also have a steeper development curve than 3T pass rushers from college to the NFL, although that's just a gut feeling. I don't have any statistics on that opinion.

[Essex Johnson]

(02-04-2024, 01:17 PM)WhoDeyK Wrote: I agree with you Essex. I prefer Byron Murphy as well. He is incredibly quick off the snap and the way he holds the line against double teams at his size is pretty incredible. I like Newton and Sweat as well though. My order would be: Murphy, Newton, Sweat. And I think Fiske is now in my top 5 DT rankings.

Im not sure though if i would use #18 on him.. i go Oline and hope he is there in 2nd round

[puddycat]

Newton: He almost never ends up on the ground. While he is not big at 295 he's not Kancey at 280 either. I think he's underestimated against the run considering he had little help at Illinois. Sweat should be a plug and play NT, but the Bengals have had players who show up to camp overweight. Sweat has maximum incentive to be in the best shape of his life right now, but isn't. It's a problem.
I'm interested in Byron Murphy; his pass win rate on passing downs is slightly higher than Newton. But I am a sucker for actual production and question Murphy's lack of elite production at Texas.

[007BengalsFan]

I wouldnt use a 1st round pick on Sweat. A big run stuffing NT isnt as valuable as a DT that can get to the QB. The Bengals are missing an interior pass rusher and that is who I would get if available. If Sweat is still there in the second round then take him but not in the 1st

[jj22]

I’ll be interested in what Newtons measurements are

[Whatever]

If I had to pick between the two, I would take Newton. Pass Rush is simply much more than stopping the run. Not only do teams pass more than run, but look at how many games come down to pass plays in the final minutes vs run plays.

Beyond that, Newton is simply the better prospect of the two. There's no way I spend a 1st on a guy that showed up at the Senior Bowl at 380+. A guy like that is a hand grenade waiting to blow up in your face.

[SunsetBengal]

(02-05-2024, 11:32 AM)Whatever Wrote: If I had to pick between the two, I would take Newton.  Pass Rush is simply much more than stopping the run. Not only do teams pass more than run, but look at how many games come down to pass plays in the final minutes vs run plays.

Beyond that, Newton is simply the better prospect of the two.  There's no way I spend a 1st on a guy that showed up at the Senior Bowl at 380+.  A guy like that is a hand grenade waiting to blow up in your face.

A lot of people think that pass rushing DT is more important than a behemoth, double team commanding, run stuffing NT, until you don't have one.  Then, teams realize that all they have to do in order to score is keep handing the ball off and chewing the clock...

[3wt]

(02-05-2024, 11:49 AM)SunsetBengal Wrote: A lot of people think that pass rushing DT is more important than a behemoth, double team commanding, run stuffing NT, until you don't have one.  Then, teams realize that all they have to do in order to score is keep handing the ball off and chewing the clock...

This.  There may be other nose tackle candidates in the first 3 rounds, and there are a lot of unknowns and concerns about sweat.

But we struggled even with Reader.  And the wheels came completely off when he was gone.  The run stuffing, double team commanding, pocket collapsing players are (I think) the number one concern.   Right behind it is the OL equivalent.   Everything else is secondary.

They need to figure out how they can address both in the first 3 rounds, and whether there are really good options in the later rounds.    Reader was (I think) a 4th or 5th round pick.

I think the DL depth is better than the OL depth.  And we need both a RT and (I think) and improved IOL - at least for depth.  But players like Barton and Powers-Johnson are very tempting guys in addition to the RT candidates.

But if it's me, I'm resigning Reader and getting a quality NT guy in the draft.  Upgrades the entire defense.  # 2 is upgrading the interior pocket.   If Joe can reliably step up, he's very hard to defend.   Also opens important holes for our RBs.

[Whatever]

(02-05-2024, 11:49 AM)SunsetBengal Wrote: A lot of people think that pass rushing DT is more important than a behemoth, double team commanding, run stuffing NT, until you don't have one.  Then, teams realize that all they have to do in order to score is keep handing the ball off and chewing the clock...

That's because your opponent's ability to run the ball and chew clock is predicated on their ability to shut down your offense and play with a lead.  If they're playing from behind, they want to throw to lengthen the game so they can get more possessions and catch up.  

Beyond that, your run stuffing NT can help get you to 3rd and long, but you still have to get off the field on 3rd and long, which means pass rush.

[SunsetBengal]

(02-05-2024, 12:21 PM)Whatever Wrote: That's because your opponent's ability to run the ball and chew clock is predicated on their ability to shut down your offense and play with a lead.  If they're playing from behind, they want to throw to lengthen the game so they can get more possessions and catch up.  

Beyond that, your run stuffing NT can help get you to 3rd and long, but you still have to get off the field on 3rd and long, which means pass rush.

All I am trying to point out is that there is no "lesser important" role on a DL.  Even if a T is a good pass rusher, he needs to also be equally impressive versus the run.  Because if you can't stop the run, you'll never force a team to pass.

[Essex Johnson]

(02-04-2024, 10:09 PM)jj22 Wrote: I’ll be interested in what Newtons measurements are

well find out more specifics I would think at the combine but what is listed is about same to Geno in height and weight

Newton 6'2 295

Atkins 6'2 293

[Essex Johnson]

(02-05-2024, 11:49 AM)SunsetBengal Wrote: A lot of people think that pass rushing DT is more important than a behemoth, double team commanding, run stuffing NT, until you don't have one.  Then, teams realize that all they have to do in order to score is keep handing the ball off and chewing the clock...

Another way to look at it Most teams on average pass on 1st down so another way to look at it so if you have your run stuffer on 1st down i think it matters less anyway... if you don;t stop the pass on 1st down then you are playing from behind anyway. Also if they feel Newton reminds them of Atkins, Geno stopped the run well also by beating the Oline on the snap... My biggest worry with Sweat is he sounds like he will be off the field a decent amount with his size and conditioning, not sure if i want to invest a #1 in that type of player

[Whatever]

(02-05-2024, 12:42 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: All I am trying to point out is that there is no "lesser important" role on a DL.  Even if a T is a good pass rusher, he needs to also be equally impressive versus the run.  Because if you can't stop the run, you'll never force a team to pass.

A 3 down player is always going to be more important than a 2 down player.  That's what most of the 2 gap NT's are now.  

In the salary cap era, you simply can't be great at everything.  You're going to have to prioritize resources.  

[*ochocincos*]

I go with Newton because of his expected better pass rush contributions, but Newton might get less snaps than Sweat would as a rookie because of playing more in a rotation whereas Sweat would have more of a chance to come in and start right away.

For example, DJ Reader played 590 defensive snaps as the NT starter in 2021, but BJ Hill played 502 defensive snaps as a rotational pass rusher in the same year.

Especially with this being Hill's last year as a Bengal, I'd go with Newton and use him as a rotational guy as a rookie before taking over as starting 3T 2025 and beyond.

[SunsetBengal]

(02-05-2024, 03:10 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: Another way to look at it Most teams on average pass on 1st down so another way to look at it  so if you have your run stuffer on 1st down i think it matters less anyway... if you don;t stop the pass on 1st down then you are playing from behind anyway.  Also if they feel Newton reminds them of Atkins, Geno stopped the run well also by beating the Oline on the snap... My biggest worry with Sweat is he sounds like he will be off the field a decent amount with his size and conditioning, not sure if i want to invest a #1 in that type of player

I agree, I wouldn't take Sweat in the first round, either.  I saw the question as an either/or to which player was needed more, not as "who do you take at #18".

[JoeyB2023]

I think the value is way higher taking sweat in the second as opposed to taking newton at 18. I like sweat better. Would really like the bengals to trade back from 18 and move up a bit in the second.
If they could grab either JC, Mimms or Kingsley in the first and comeback with sweat in the second…woah.