Free Agency Approach

[Knightmare on Elm Street]

We know the team is at a crossroads this upcoming offseason. The question is how do we approach this offseason, do we swing for the fences and bring in a couple A/A+ type free agents or do we take the 2021 approach and keep bringing in multiple B/B+ type free agents? Thoughts?

[*ochocincos*]

(01-29-2024, 04:50 PM)Knightmare on Elm Street Wrote: We know the team is at a crossroads this upcoming offseason. The question is how do we approach this offseason, do we swing for the fences and bring in a couple A/A+ type free agents or do we take the 2021 approach and keep bringing in multiple B/B+ type free agents? Thoughts?

I don't think we see any studs brought in other than maybe TE, but that would only be if Higgins isn't in the long-term plans, I feel.

I think the more likely scenario is we see some of the internal FAs back and then get up to a few cheaper mid-tier guys to fill in remaining spots, allowing the Bengals much more flexibility in the draft.

A scenario I could see:
- Tag Higgins (WR2 short-term covered)
- Sign Reader to a 1-2 year contract (NT short-term covered)
- Sign a vet RT like Brown, Fant, or Eluemunor ($8 mill or less)
- Re-sign Hudson and Sample to cover short-term TE and draft a TE to round out the TE room

[puddycat]

I think that OBJ(Orlando Brown Jr.) and tagging Tee are both A/A+, and I'm all for 1-2 A+ signings each year. But the problem with A/A+ signings is that their position is frozen out of continued development through the draft or free agency, so it needs to be limited to players that have position flexibility (like CBs) or a gaping hole in the roster (like LT and WR2).

[*ochocincos*]

(02-02-2024, 07:24 PM)puddycat Wrote: I think that OBJ and tagging Tee are both A/A+, and I'm all for 1-2 A+ signings each year.  But the problem with A/A+ signings is that their position is frozen out of continued development through the draft or free agency, so it needs to be limited to players that have position flexibility (like CBs) or a gaping hole in the roster (like LT and WR2).

You talking about 31 year old Odell Beckham who hasn't had a 1000 yard season since 2019?
Pass

[XenoMorph]

(02-01-2024, 03:04 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I don't think we see any studs brought in other than maybe TE, but that would only be if Higgins isn't in the long-term plans, I feel.

I think the more likely scenario is we see some of the internal FAs back and then get up to a few cheaper mid-tier guys to fill in remaining spots, allowing the Bengals much more flexibility in the draft.

A scenario I could see:
- Tag Higgins (WR2 short-term covered)
- Sign Reader to a 1-2 year contract (NT short-term covered)
- Sign a vet RT like Brown, Fant, or Eluemunor ($8 mill or less)
- Re-sign Hudson and Sample to cover short-term TE and draft a TE to round out the TE room

IS it an upgrade if the RT we are getting is cheaper than the one we are letting go?

[*ochocincos*]

(02-05-2024, 12:37 PM)XenoMorph Wrote: IS it an upgrade if the RT we are getting is cheaper than the one we are letting go?

It is if it's comparable performance.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

Not what I expect to happen, but what I hope to happen while reigning myself to reasonable semi-plausible moves (so no new OL Coach or replacing Volson it seems)....

-Come out aggressive early in the tampering window and sign Dalton Schultz and also one of Hunter Henry/Noah Fant/Gerald Everett.
-Re-sign Awuzie as you're going to need 3 outside CBs anyway, and this prevents adding yet another young DB. Should be better >12 months from ACL.
-Exercise your ERFA claim on Browning.
-Re-sign Cal Adomitis.
-Re-sign 2 of ADG, Markus Bailey, and Joe Bachie for special teams, have a 7th round/priority UDFA type guy fill the 5th LB STer role for rookie minimum.
-Re-sign Trenton Irwin as long as it's cheap.
-Re-sign Drew Sample on a deal where you wouldn't feel bad cutting him if a 5th-ish-round rookie TE impresses in preseason.
-Release Joe Mixon and Nick Scott.

Now you really only need a RT, a RB1, a WR2, a NT, and a P from the draft. Roughly in that order of draft rounds (P probably in 6th if there's one worth it you get a TE in the 5th).

[casear2727]

(02-05-2024, 08:42 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Not what I expect to happen, but what I hope to happen while reigning myself to reasonable semi-plausible moves (so no new OL Coach or replacing Volson it seems)....

-Come out aggressive early in the tampering window and sign Dalton Schultz and also one of Hunter Henry/Noah Fant/Gerald Everett.
-Re-sign Awuzie as you're going to need 3 outside CBs anyway, and this prevents adding yet another young DB. Should be better >12 months from ACL.
-Exercise your ERFA claim on Browning.
-Re-sign Cal Adomitis.
-Re-sign 2 of ADG, Markus Bailey, and Joe Bachie for special teams, have a 7th round/priority UDFA type guy fill the 5th LB STer role for rookie minimum.
-Re-sign Trenton Irwin as long as it's cheap.
-Re-sign Drew Sample on a deal where you wouldn't feel bad cutting him if a 5th-ish-round rookie TE impresses in preseason.
-Release Joe Mixon and Nick Scott.

Now you really only need a RT, a RB1, a WR2, a NT, and a P from the draft. Roughly in that order of draft rounds (P probably in 6th if there's one worth it you get a TE in the 5th).

Makes sense.
Adomitas is also an ERFA, under 1M & cant negotiate with other teams.
Irwin is a RFA, 2.8M qualifying offer, 1st right of refusal, if another team signs him to a higher deal we get a comp pick.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(02-06-2024, 03:01 PM)casear2727 Wrote: Makes sense.
Adomitas is also an ERFA, under 1M & cant negotiate with other teams.
Irwin is a RFA, 2.8M qualifying offer, 1st right of refusal, if another team signs him to a higher deal we get a comp pick.

Didn't know that about Adomitas, so that's always good. Not that LS really cost much more than that regardless.

I don't think I would go $2.8m for Irwin. Didn't realize that the RFA tenders had risen that much. $2.8m is original round, and he was a UDFA, so we wouldn't get a comp pick, right? So there I would say non-tender and then offer to sign him for $1.5m or something and if he doesn't accept then sign a depth veteran. The production of the veteran isn't quite as important as the character and experience to help out the young WR room.

If I could also force the Bengals to make a player move that they won't do, I would sign the best C in FA (Cushenberry?) and move Karras to LG.

[Speedy Thomas]

(02-05-2024, 08:42 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Not what I expect to happen, but what I hope to happen while reigning myself to reasonable semi-plausible moves (so no new OL Coach or replacing Volson it seems)....

-Come out aggressive early in the tampering window and sign Dalton Schultz and also one of Hunter Henry/Noah Fant/Gerald Everett.
-Re-sign Awuzie as you're going to need 3 outside CBs anyway, and this prevents adding yet another young DB. Should be better >12 months from ACL.
-Exercise your ERFA claim on Browning.
-Re-sign Cal Adomitis.
-Re-sign 2 of ADG, Markus Bailey, and Joe Bachie for special teams, have a 7th round/priority UDFA type guy fill the 5th LB STer role for rookie minimum.
-Re-sign Trenton Irwin as long as it's cheap.
-Re-sign Drew Sample on a deal where you wouldn't feel bad cutting him if a 5th-ish-round rookie TE impresses in preseason.
-Release Joe Mixon and Nick Scott.

Now you really only need a RT, a RB1, a WR2, a NT, and a P from the draft. Roughly in that order of draft rounds (P probably in 6th if there's one worth it you get a TE in the 5th).

Did you forget a 3-tech DT, or are you happy with Carter?

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(02-06-2024, 03:29 PM)Speedy Thomas Wrote: Did you forget a 3-tech DT, or are you happy with Carter?

Didn't forget, just think that Carter is a young 3rd round pick and he isn't expected to be the starter (he only started getting starts when Reader went down). I wouldn't say I am happy with him, he needs to grow, but I think you give him another year to be Hill's backup.

You already have two paid DEs, a paid DT, and the last 3 years you've spent a 4th, 3rd, and 1st round pick on backup DL, and now you're going to spend more either money or draft capital on a NT. They need to make do with that at least for 2024. 2025 you're going to have to add a new DT anyway when Hill becomes a FA. So push 3T to 2025.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

Higgins and Reader are A+ free agents. We should keep them.

As to what happens after that, who knows? It isn't like the FO has control. If Wilkins or Madubuike get tagged or extended, there may be nothing we can do.

Broadly speaking, my priorities would be:

1) Don't pay big money for mediocre FA's. Jonah isn't worth $15 mil.

2) Avoid big backwards steps if you can. Losing Highins or Reader us a big backwards step. Jonah, Boyd, and Chido are small steps back.

3) Improve the trenches. The OL first (RT), then run D (Reader), and then interior pass rush. I think we count on Hubbard being healthy and Murphy improving for outside upgrades.

4) Get more explosive on offense. Boyd could bounce back but I think he has lost a step. A legit TE upgrade would also help.

5) Better secondary depth, or maybe even a starter depending on how we view Dax & Turner.
--------------------

I think we have somewhere between 6-8 slots to get starter level guys.

1) Free agency. Over $50 mil in functional space. Room for 2 big deals or maybe 3. Tee + Reader + 1-2 more depending on details. Heck, we could squeeze another significant FA in if terms are good and/or we get some folks to renegotiate. 3-5 here.

2) Top 3 draft picks. Maybe a 4th if we trade down for extra picks or if the 4th is a depth piece (Secondary, backup NT, orxwe get lucky at TE).

That is 6 (minimum) and maybe 8 or 9 (max).

1. WR2: Higgins
2. NT/DT run stopper: Reader

Higgins is the best WR available. Reader the best run stopper. If we can get both for $25 (best case) or around $30 (more likely) vs the cap next year, we have $20+ mil left.

I swing for the fences and try for a $20 mil DT who can rush the passer (Madubuike, Wilkins, maybe Williams).

If successful, I use the rest to sign our own FA's who are vet min/close to it and playable: Adomitis, Browning, T. Williams, Irwin, Hudson, D. Sample, Ford, Scharping, Tupou, ADG, Bailey, Bachie).

Hudson, ADG, maybe Irwin a smidge above min.

Try to free up more space with reconstruction or maybe even a cut or two (Scott, Carman). If I have $$ left, I go for wherever in FA I can find the best bargain/afford: vet bridge RT, WR3, TE , DB help, NT backup, punter).

If I whiff on my FA DT, then I look for higher quality guys in the other roles.

Draft will play out depending on how FA went. If I land Tee, Reader, DT, and not much else, then the draft becomes:

Rd1: RT/OT
Rd2: WR3/TE/CB/S
Rd3: Ditto
------
Rd4: Whatever is left, plus another DT/NT, RB, IOL, and LB value in play.
Rd5: Ditto, but the P from Iowa in play.
Rd5#2: Ditto.
R6 & 2 Rd7s: Ditto.

The three big fish and not much else will leave us top heavy and needing our picks to hit in year one. And will probably leave us having to live with/gamble on sime stuff.

Which is just reality. We simply have more needs that we can fill via signing FA studs and one or two picks.

May have to gamble on improvements from Murphy, Turner, and Dax Hill. Live with Scott as the backup S. Or Tupou at NT. ADG & Bailey at LB. Or gamble on Jones/Iosivas at WR.

But I'd rather fix the starting holes first.

Tier 1: WR2, NT/DT run stopper, RT
Tier 2: interior pass rush, WR3, TE1
Tier 3: Secondary depth, IOL depth, NT/DT depth.
Tier 4: P, RB, LB depth, OT depth.

[Whatever]

(02-05-2024, 08:42 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Not what I expect to happen, but what I hope to happen while reigning myself to reasonable semi-plausible moves (so no new OL Coach or replacing Volson it seems)....

-Come out aggressive early in the tampering window and sign Dalton Schultz and also one of Hunter Henry/Noah Fant/Gerald Everett.
-Re-sign Awuzie as you're going to need 3 outside CBs anyway, and this prevents adding yet another young DB. Should be better >12 months from ACL.
-Exercise your ERFA claim on Browning.
-Re-sign Cal Adomitis.
-Re-sign 2 of ADG, Markus Bailey, and Joe Bachie for special teams, have a 7th round/priority UDFA type guy fill the 5th LB STer role for rookie minimum.
-Re-sign Trenton Irwin as long as it's cheap.
-Re-sign Drew Sample on a deal where you wouldn't feel bad cutting him if a 5th-ish-round rookie TE impresses in preseason.
-Release Joe Mixon and Nick Scott.

Now you really only need a RT, a RB1, a WR2, a NT, and a P from the draft. Roughly in that order of draft rounds (P probably in 6th if there's one worth it you get a TE in the 5th).

Guys like Fant and Henry are not going to sign here to be a TE2 behind Schultz.

Coming away with four Day 1 starters in the draft really isn't realistic.

[jj22]

Strong Oline, Dline and WR draft so I'd stay away from those positions in FA... Plus a lot of money is already tied up in those positions (or will be). Thus they are going to have to hit on some draft picks to spread the money out.

If they tag Tee, we won't see much else outside of some C+ signings.

Tag Tee
re-sign Awuzie
FA TE
and the rest of the bottom of the roster re-signings. That should pretty much do if for FA. Now if they don't Tag Tee, then maybe a B+ FS, DT signing can be squeezed in.

[*Synric*]

Spend money in depressed markets. Bengals need TEs, a 3rd down running back, and a NT2. You can get solid players in those markets cheap.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(02-06-2024, 04:39 PM)Whatever Wrote: Guys like Fant and Henry are not going to sign here to be a TE2 behind Schultz.

Coming away with four Day 1 starters in the draft really isn't realistic.

If they're a starter and they're getting paid, they sure would. Playing time and money are the two things that matter and as long as those are met, guys will sign. If it's a winning team that makes it all that much of an easier sell. I mean, Henry signed with the Patriots 1 day after they signed Jonnu Smith, Jonnu got 1 more year on his contract than Henry at the same yearly amount and Henry still signed.

- - - - -

Literally anyone can be a Day 1 starter as long as they are draft eligible. Coming away with 4 quality Day 1 starters is tough, and I don't expect them to do that. 
-We're not a run heavy team, just need someone athletic who can pass block to split carries with Chase Brown.
-The WR2 is going to be the 4th option in the passing game if you sign 2 starting caliber TEs to go with Chase, maybe 5th if you include the RBs. Run deep routes.
-The RT I don't have a ton of faith in the Bengals ability to draft and sign but that just basically has to happen. Hopefully in the 1st round.
-The NT, there seems to be like 5 guys in the NFL who are elite talents at NT, and then there seems to be an absolute sea of just guys. Just a guy will have to do, he will be surrounded by 3 paid DL and 2 paid LBs. Eat blocks, our run defense can't really be worse than 2023.

I don't think we've had a $16m+ cap hit since AJ Green's franchise tag and now we have a $20m and almost a $30m (that will jump to $46m in 2025). You're going to have some spots that aren't going to be quite as fixed as you hope. The goal now is just to make sure that Burrow is protected and has enough around him to succeed while the rest of the team isn't terrible, in that order of priority. They're going to need to hit on draft picks if they want anything more than that.

[casear2727]

(02-06-2024, 04:41 PM)jj22 Wrote: Strong Oline, Dline and WR draft so I'd stay away from those positions in FA... Plus a lot of money is already tied up in those positions (or will be). Thus they are going to have to hit on some draft picks to spread the money out.

If they tag Tee, we won't see much else outside of some C+ signings.

Tag Tee
re-sign Awuzie
FA TE
and the rest of the bottom of the roster re-signings. That should pretty much do if for FA. Now if they don't Tag Tee, then maybe a B+ FS, DT signing can be squeezed in.

Oline, Dline and WR are 3 of the top 5 most valued positions and you want to risk all of them with rookies?  With our drafting history?  

I am a sign needs in free agency and draft the future/luxury guys.

[schroomytunes]

Yes we have some holes coming up this year before the draft, but we also planned for those holes and we have some 50 million in cap savings. We need to focus on the strengths of this years draft which is OT, Dline, and WR. With that in mind focus on other areas of FA that we need to improve on:

Moves$$)

1) Cut Nick Scott- savings @ 2million to use elsewhere.
2) Restructure Hubbards contract adding a year, lessening the cap hit ala Mixon.

Free Agent Targets: (Ours)

1) Irwin
2) Adomitis
3) Browning
4) ADG
5) Bailey
6) Sample
7) Hudson
8) Ford
9) Higgins- Franchise Tag
10) Awoszie- only if its @ 5 million if more I let him walk

- Reader I let walk as his health is a concern for the cost.

Outside Free Agents:

1) Trent Brown-(NE) takes over at RT, allowing us to draft one in early rounds to develop

2) Tim Settle-(Buf) big interior guy, allowing us solid rotation, and draft options early for dline.

3) Adrian Amos-(Hou) pushes for starting FS spot, dax may be nickle guy.

Draft: 1-4

1) Taliese Fuaga- RT Oregon St. 6'6 340

2) Mckinnley Jackson DT Texas A&M 6'2 325

3) Johnny Dixon- CB Penn St 5-11 200

4) Ben Sinnott- TE Kansas St 6'4 250

[Whatever]

(02-06-2024, 05:30 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: If they're a starter and they're getting paid, they sure would. Playing time and money are the two things that matter and as long as those are met, guys will sign. If it's a winning team that makes it all that much of an easier sell. I mean, Henry signed with the Patriots 1 day after they signed Jonnu Smith, Jonnu got 1 more year on his contract than Henry at the same yearly amount and Henry still signed.

- - - - -

Literally anyone can be a Day 1 starter as long as they are draft eligible. Coming away with 4 quality Day 1 starters is tough, and I don't expect them to do that. 
-We're not a run heavy team, just need someone athletic who can pass block to split carries with Chase Brown.
-The WR2 is going to be the 4th option in the passing game if you sign 2 starting caliber TEs to go with Chase, maybe 5th if you include the RBs. Run deep routes.
-The RT I don't have a ton of faith in the Bengals ability to draft and sign but that just basically has to happen. Hopefully in the 1st round.
-The NT, there seems to be like 5 guys in the NFL who are elite talents at NT, and then there seems to be an absolute sea of just guys. Just a guy will have to do, he will be surrounded by 3 paid DL and 2 paid LBs. Eat blocks, our run defense can't really be worse than 2023.

I don't think we've had a $16m+ cap hit since AJ Green's franchise tag and now we have a $20m and almost a $30m (that will jump to $46m in 2025). You're going to have some spots that aren't going to be quite as fixed as you hope. The goal now is just to make sure that Burrow is protected and has enough around him to succeed while the rest of the team isn't terrible, in that order of priority. They're going to need to hit on draft picks if they want anything more than that.

Athletes don't work like that.  Case in point, Orlando Brown Jr's insistance on playing left tackle and Marvin Jones leaving because he wanted to be a WR1 instead of a WR2.  If you're a TE2, you're next deal will will take a hit regardless.For another, no starting caliber TE is going to sign with a team as a TE2 with an offensive HC and OC promoted from within that run 11 base.  You have no reasonable assurance that they can make 12 base work and if the offense struggles, they will revert back to what they know, which is 11 base.  

Why are you converting to 12 base if you don't intend on being a run heavy team?  12 base teams are run heavy offenses.  

You know how you can fill some more holes?  Don't waste $9-10 mil on a TE2 with a pipe dream of being 12 base.  The only way this team is 12 base next year is if they sign Schultz and Bowers falls to 18, and even then, it will depend on the offers they get for that pick.  

[Essex Johnson]

I think Bengals will look at possible 1 A type signing, 1 B type and maybe 1 or 2 for depth with the assumption they tag Tee and cut Williams.

Scenarios
1A Trent Brown RT 1 B Everett TE depth: Jefferson Jets DT, keep Mixon

1A Schultz TE 1 B Eluemunor RT depth Jefferson Jets DT keep Mixon

1A Pollard RB 1 B Eluemunor RT depth Jefferson Jets DT and Robert Tonyan Jr TE cut Mixon