2 stats for why 2024 is huge for the Bengals

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

This year will decide a lot about what the Bengals should do for their future due to two stats...

1. The last 18 QBs to lose their first SB have never started another SB (and only 4 in NFL history have).
2. No QB/HC duo in NFL history have ever won their first SB together later than their 5th year together.

I think Burrow is a good enough QB that so long as he can stay healthy he can overturn #1. Elway was the last to do it, so it has been done despite the odds being against him.

The fact that no QB/HC duo have ever done the second one in NFL history though makes me think that if you don't have it click and get it done early, it's never going to happen no matter how many years you have together. Without the trophy and ring, the messaging can only work for so long.

So I think 2024 is going to be a big year because playoffs and a win or two isn't going to be enough to maintain the status quo for 2025. It's SB or bust this year. We'd be trying to push two massive boulders up a mountain if we don't win a ring and try to keep things as they are.

[TecmoBengals]

(04-22-2024, 07:27 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: This year will decide a lot about what the Bengals should do for their future due to two stats...

1. The last 18 QBs to lose their first SB have never started another SB (and only 4 in NFL history have).

This stat was dismissed among some posters after Burrow moved to 0-1 in Super Bowl appearances. It's not a fun stat to see for us Bengals and Burrow fans, but it is reality.

Let's hope Burrow becomes the outlier.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(04-22-2024, 09:07 AM)TecmoBengals Wrote: This stat was dismissed among some posters after Burrow moved to 0-1 in Super Bowl appearances. It's not a fun stat to see for us Bengals and Burrow fans, but it is reality.

Let's hope Burrow becomes the outlier.

Thought for a minute there that Goff was about to break the streak. Then the Lions blew their 24-7 halftime lead in the NFCC.

[SunsetBengal]

(04-22-2024, 09:43 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Thought for a minute there that Goff was about to break the streak. Then the Lions blew their 24-7 halftime lead in the NFCC.

Let's hope that the team does for Joe what the Broncos did for John Elway. Build a fundamentally sound rushing attack and solid defense, that way the pressure to win every game is more equally divided throughout the team, rather than a disproportionate amount falling on the QBs shoulders.

[TecmoBengals]

(04-22-2024, 10:15 AM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Let's hope that the team does for Joe what the Broncos did for John Elway. Build a fundamentally sound rushing attack and solid defense, that way the pressure to win every game is more equally divided throughout the team, rather than a disproportionate amount falling on the QBs shoulders.

Right on. Burrow needs to become Elway 2.0 preferably without anymore Super Bowl losses.

Please, please, and please Football Gods do not allow Burrow to become Marino 2.0.

[WeezyBengal]

No disrespect but these stats mean nothing to me.

[Brownshoe]

(04-22-2024, 10:49 AM)WeezyBengal Wrote: No disrespect but these stats mean nothing to me.

This is how I feel. We already broke a lot of records with Burrow. It's not going to be different with these other ones. Plus the biggest hurdle most teams have right now is the chiefs and he's definitely shown that he can win against them.

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(04-22-2024, 10:49 AM)WeezyBengal Wrote: No disrespect but these stats mean nothing to me.

I agree, I think that's the old Bengals mentality. These guys just do things differently. I would like to see a good run game that can ease Joe's burden and salt games away, but this group has beaten so many past Bengals monkeys off the organization's back, that I believe anything is possible.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(04-22-2024, 11:20 AM)Wyche Wrote: I agree, I think that's the old Bengals mentality. These guys just do things differently. I would like to see a good run game that can ease Joe's burden and salt games away, but this group has beaten so many past Bengals monkeys off the organization's back, that I believe anything is possible.

Neither of those stats are Bengals stats. They are NFL stats. So those would be NFL mentalities and NFL monkeys.

[XenoMorph]

These type of stats are interesting but overall arent a metric to design your team around.

[SunsetBengal]

(04-22-2024, 11:30 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Neither of those stats are Bengals stats. They are NFL stats. So those would be NFL mentalities and NFL monkeys.

The 32 year drought between playoff wins was definitely a Bengals monkey on their backs.

[depthchart]

1. The last 18 QBs to lose their first SB have never started another SB (and only 4 in NFL history have).


Number 1 may be more in Burrow's control to overcome than many of those other QB's that failed if he is truly Great.

Overcoming it would help prove that he is Great but he will still need Coaches & the Organization doing their part.


2. No QB/HC duo in NFL history have ever won their first SB together later than their 5th year together.


Number 2 may relate more to Ownership impatience where they don't allow the Coach & QB to stay together

long enough to get more chances to win.

Example: Coach Marty Schottenheimer Coached QB Phillip Rivers in 2004, 2005 & 2006 and was FIRED after the

2006 season after going 14 and 2 then losing in the Divisional round of the Playoffs. (They didn't even get 5 years together)

*Bengals Ownership may let Burrow & Zac stay together well beyond 5 years giving them more chances to do it.

[PDub80]

Non-Correlating facts are fun, but not at all predictive. There's nothing that ties these failures together. Especially in a league where there's so much change so often.

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(04-22-2024, 11:30 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Neither of those stats are Bengals stats. They are NFL stats. So those would be NFL mentalities and NFL monkeys.

I get that, but this group has done things no other Bengals team has done. So, I don't see any reason why they can't overcome these "NFL demons". People point to Marino for good reason. When you look back, Dan was never really properly supported. The defense had some moments, but was overall below average. They never had a good run game. The Bengals will definitely have to improve the run, and get the defense back to where it was a couple of years ago at a minimum. If they can do those two things, I think they can get that ring. 

[*bengalfan74*]

(04-22-2024, 10:15 AM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Let's hope that the team does for Joe what the Broncos did for John Elway. Build a fundamentally sound rushing attack and solid defense, that way the pressure to win every game is more equally divided throughout the team, rather than a disproportionate amount falling on the QBs shoulders.

I'm so hoping we get another back in the draft. Evans and Williams just don't move the needle much as a 3rd back. And IMHO lacking a solid ground game has been one of our key missing ingredients for Joe. And it makes all the difference in the world in the red zone.

And I agree, I believe this year is critical for the Bengals. Joe Burrow has to stay healthy.

[TecmoBengals]

(04-22-2024, 11:30 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Neither of those stats are Bengals stats. They are NFL stats. So those would be NFL mentalities and NFL monkeys.

I was about share the same sentiment and then saw your post. It has nothing to do with the Bengals organization and perceptions fans had about it in the past. 

[*bfine32*]

Didn't Peyton lose his first SB
Nevermind he beat the Bears then lost to the Saints

[TecmoBengals]

(04-22-2024, 12:38 PM)Wyche Wrote: I get that, but this group has done things no other Bengals team has done. So, I don't see any reason why they can't overcome these "NFL demons". People point to Marino for good reason. When you look back, Dan was never really properly supported. The defense had some moments, but was overall below average. They never had a good run game. The Bengals will definitely have to improve the run, and get the defense back to where it was a couple of years ago at a minimum. If they can do those two things, I think they can get that ring. 

I'm all in for giving Zac and Burrow the chance to overcome history. I'm happy both are leading the Bengals right now and think they are the best shot the organization has at winning the Super Bowl. 

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(04-22-2024, 12:27 PM)depthchart Wrote: 2. No QB/HC duo in NFL history have ever won their first SB together later than their 5th year together.


   Number 2 may relate more to Ownership impatience where they don't allow the Coach & QB to stay together

   long enough to get more chances to win.

   Example: Coach Marty Schottenheimer Coached QB Phillip Rivers in 2004, 2005 & 2006 and was FIRED after the

                  2006 season after going 14 and 2 then losing in the Divisional round of the Playoffs. (They didn't even get 5 years together)

   *Bengals Ownership may let Burrow & Zac stay together well beyond 5 years giving them more chances to do it.

Rivers then had more than 5 years with his next HC, having 6 years with Norv Turner and still didn't win a SB. 14-2 or not, Marty Schottenheimer was never going to win a SB. Guy coached for 21 years and won 5 playoff games. When the Chargers fired him he hadn't won a single playoff game in the previous 13 years.

5 years is a REALLY long time in the NFL. You can't use the word impatience when talking about waiting 5 years in the NFL. That's the majority of a great player's productive years (AJ Green was basically done after 7 years, Chad after 9 years, Corey Dillon after 8 years) and 1/3rd of a franchise QB's career (probably more when you figure they normally aren't great their rookie year and have 1-2 twilight years at the end).

[CJD]

(04-22-2024, 09:07 AM)TecmoBengals Wrote: This stat was dismissed among some posters after Burrow moved to 0-1 in Super Bowl appearances. It's not a fun stat to see for us Bengals and Burrow fans, but it is reality.

Let's hope Burrow becomes the outlier.

Stats like this are fascinating because humans, by nature, try to look for patterns in life. So it makes sense that people could see that stat and decide that it has some sort of causal link to whether or not the Bengals will ever get the Super Bowl again.

But it's completely nonsensical. There's nothing about losing a Super Bowl by 3 points that could possibly cause that player to never reach the Super Bowl ever again. It's pattern seeking correlation brought on almost entirely by superstition.

Burrow may or may not ever play in a Super Bowl again.

But it will have nothing to do with the fact that he lost the first Super Bowl he appeared in.