Redrafting the 2024 draft - What other combinations?

[CJD]

Now that we have perfect hindsight of where each player would go in the 2024 NFL draft, what other combinations could the Bengals have made with the positions they selected in the first two days?

For example, let's say they really liked Johnny Newton and chose him at #18. What ripple effects would that have had on the rest of their draft? Here's what they could have done:

Round 1: Johnny Newton, DT
Round 2: Patrick Paul/Kingsley Suamataia/Roger Rosengarten, OT
Round 3: Same picks

Would that have been better than Mims and Jenkins?

What if they decided to take Adonai Mitchell in the 2nd?

Round 1: Amarius Mims, OT
Round 2: Adonai Mitchell, WR
Round 3: DeWayne Carter, DT
Round 3: Same pick

Would that have been better than Jenkins and Burton?

Or what if they just went crazy and took Newton AND Mitchell?

Round 1: Johnny Newton, DT
Round 2: Adonai Mitchell, WR
Round 3: Dominick Puni, OT

Maybe we can try WR in the first!

Round 1: Brian Thomas Jr, WR
Round 2: Patrick Paul/Kingsley Suamataia/Roger Rosengarten, OT
Round 3: DeWayne Carter, DT

Or

Round 1: Brian Thomas Jr, WR
Round 2: Kris Jenkins, DT
Round 3: Dominick Puni, OT

I've been putting prospects of each round together to try and fill those three biggest needs and I'm really struggling to find a better combination than the three we came out of the draft with.

Can you come up with a better combination of players that fill the three biggest needs on this roster, OT, DT and WR?

[*bfine32*]

RD1: TROY FAUTANU/ OT
RD2: KRIS JENKINS/DT
RD3: ROMAN WILSON/WR
RD3: JORDAN JEFFERSON/NT

[*ochocincos*]

1) Jer'Zhan Newton, DT
2) Kingsley Suamataia, OT
3) Theo Johnson, TE
3comp) same, Jackson NT (only because I don't if Bengals didn't take him here would he have been taken before 4th or 5th round, and I like him as a NT)
4) TJ Tampa, CB
5) Kimani Vidal, RB
6) Christian Mahogany, OG
6comp) same I guess, Johnson DE
7-HOU) Brenden Rice, WR
7) same Matt Lee, C

[CJD]

(04-30-2024, 08:26 PM)ochocincos Wrote: 1) Jer'Zhan Newton, DT
2) Kingsley Suamataia, OT
3) Theo Johnson, TE
3comp) same, Jackson NT (only because I don't if Bengals didn't take him here would he have been taken before 4th or 5th round, and I like him as a NT)
4) TJ Tampa, CB
5) Kimani Vidal, RB
6) Christian Mahogany, OG
6comp) same I guess, Johnson DE
7-HOU) Brenden Rice, WR
7) same Matt Lee, C

So in this scenario, I guess you're under the impression that Brenden Rice fell for no real reason and he will be able to meaningfully contribute to this WR room? Because I see Burton to Rice as a major downgrade and All to Johnson as just a slight upgrade (not to mention the removal of McLaughlin).

I was listening to the Locked On Bengals podcast and Jake Liscow said something that fascinated me. 

He said that, based on collected data on where players go in the draft relative to the consensus board (a combination of multiple media draft boards like ESPN, NFL.com, independent draft people etc), players who are considered reaches on draft night relative to the consensus board (I think he was talking about the Jackson pick at the time) are statistically likely to end up being reaches in real life (the player does not live up to their draft position), but falling players relative to the consensus board ("Value picks" like Tampa and Rice here) are also statistically likely to end up not being the steal that the consensus boards would seem to indicate.

The reason for this is because the 32 teams have a lot more information than media outlets. They interview the players, they have better access to tape of the players, they can talk to the coaches of the players etc, so their boards are often different in some ways from the consensus boards.

So in order for a player to fall multiple rounds like Rice did, all 32 teams would have to essentially agree that that player should not go where the consensus board says they should go. All 32 teams passed on Rice through 6 rounds. That wasn't by mistake.

On the other side of the coin, consensus reaches often end up being reaches because all it takes is 1 team to disagree with the consensus board and take the player. If the Bengals had not taken Drew Sample in the 2nd round in 2019, maybe the other 31 teams would have agreed with his consensus ranking of 4th to 5th round. And, if they had, he likely would not have been reached for and he'd look like a draft success rather than an underwhelming 2nd round pick.

All this to say, I understand where your head is at, thinking you can get a 3rd round level player in the 7th round, so why would we take Burton, but the data says players who fall in the draft usually fall for a reason (there are, of course, exceptions, but not a ton).

[CJD]

(04-29-2024, 05:55 PM)bfine32 Wrote: RD1: TROY FAUTANU/ OT
RD2: KRIS JENKINS/DT
RD3: ROMAN WILSON/WR
RD3: JORDAN JEFFERSON/NT

I get swapping Mims and Fautanu. It's a hard call between high ceiling and high floor. What I wanted to avoid was a question of what position he should play in his rookie year. Should he replace Volson at LG, and then move to RT in 2025? Would he better just sticking at RT completely? Do we still need a tackle if we took Fautanu? etc. I personally like that they just took the high ceiling tackle prospect and avoided all the position speculation, the switch from left to right anxiety and the question of Fautanu's suitability to stick at tackle. But I get the preference.

Wilson over Burton makes sense too. I think what we don't know is if Burton was taken not as a Boyd replacement, but as a Higgins replacement. If that's the case, I don't think Wilson would have been a suitable replacement for Higgins.

If they re-signed Higgins, I'd be all in on Wilson in the 3rd. As it stands, I get why they took a player who could eventually take over Higgins' role.

I didn't know this about Jordan Jefferson before the draft, but apparently he had an incident where he ripped off a player's helmet and swung it around following a 1 on 1 drill where he got beat. 

Jaguars are getting an absolute dog in Jordan Jefferson pic.twitter.com/JNwBgE0zXO

— Tyler Nettuno (@TylerNettuno) April 27, 2024

 


Apparently, Haynes was talking shit to him and he lost his temper.


This twitter user seemed to think that meant Jefferson has that dawg in him, but I'm not sure I agree haha.


I do think the media would have liked the pick more if we took Jefferson though. He was definitely the consensus better player.

[*ochocincos*]

(05-01-2024, 11:52 AM)CJD Wrote: So in this scenario, I guess you're under the impression that Brenden Rice fell for no real reason and he will be able to meaningfully contribute to this WR room? Because I see Burton to Rice as a major downgrade and All to Johnson as just a slight upgrade (not to mention the removal of McLaughlin).

I was listening to the Locked On Bengals podcast and Jake Liscow said something that fascinated me. 

He said that, based on collected data on where players go in the draft relative to the consensus board (a combination of multiple media draft boards like ESPN, NFL.com, independent draft people etc), players who are considered reaches on draft night relative to the consensus board (I think he was talking about the Jackson pick at the time) are statistically likely to end up being reaches in real life (the player does not live up to their draft position), but falling players relative to the consensus board ("Value picks" like Tampa and Rice here) are also statistically likely to end up not being the steal that the consensus boards would seem to indicate.

The reason for this is because the 32 teams have a lot more information than media outlets. They interview the players, they have better access to tape of the players, they can talk to the coaches of the players etc, so their boards are often different in some ways from the consensus boards.

So in order for a player to fall multiple rounds like Rice did, all 32 teams would have to essentially agree that that player should not go where the consensus board says they should go. All 32 teams passed on Rice through 6 rounds. That wasn't by mistake.

On the other side of the coin, consensus reaches often end up being reaches because all it takes is 1 team to disagree with the consensus board and take the player. If the Bengals had not taken Drew Sample in the 2nd round in 2019, maybe the other 31 teams would have agreed with his consensus ranking of 4th to 5th round. And, if they had, he likely would not have been reached for and he'd look like a draft success rather than an underwhelming 2nd round pick.

All this to say, I understand where your head is at, thinking you can get a 3rd round level player in the 7th round, so why would we take Burton, but the data says players who fall in the draft usually fall for a reason (there are, of course, exceptions, but not a ton).

We'll see what Rice ends up doing, but I would have jumped on him in the 4th round, personally.
Same with Christian Mahogany.
I do think Burton is better than Rice, but I wanted a better TE than All (or at least less injury worries), so I took Johnson in Burton's place.

[Eraserhead]

Seeing these different scenarios makes me appreciate the Bengals draft more than I already did. They got it right.

[EatonFan]

(04-30-2024, 08:26 PM)ochocincos Wrote: 1) Jer'Zhan Newton, DT
2) Kingsley Suamataia, OT
3) Theo Johnson, TE
3comp) same, Jackson NT (only because I don't if Bengals didn't take him here would he have been taken before 4th or 5th round, and I like him as a NT)
4) TJ Tampa, CB
5) Kimani Vidal, RB
6) Christian Mahogany, OG
6comp) same I guess, Johnson DE
7-HOU) Brenden Rice, WR
7) same Matt Lee, C

Like

[TKUHL]

(05-01-2024, 12:12 PM)CJD Wrote: I get swapping Mims and Fautanu. It's a hard call between high ceiling and high floor. What I wanted to avoid was a question of what position he should play in his rookie year. Should he replace Volson at LG, and then move to RT in 2025? Would he better just sticking at RT completely? Do we still need a tackle if we took Fautanu? etc. I personally like that they just took the high ceiling tackle prospect and avoided all the position speculation, the switch from left to right anxiety and the question of Fautanu's suitability to stick at tackle. But I get the preference.

Wilson over Burton makes sense too. I think what we don't know is if Burton was taken not as a Boyd replacement, but as a Higgins replacement. If that's the case, I don't think Wilson would have been a suitable replacement for Higgins.

If they re-signed Higgins, I'd be all in on Wilson in the 3rd. As it stands, I get why they took a player who could eventually take over Higgins' role.

I didn't know this about Jordan Jefferson before the draft, but apparently he had an incident where he ripped off a player's helmet and swung it around following a 1 on 1 drill where he got beat. 

Jaguars are getting an absolute dog in Jordan Jefferson pic.twitter.com/JNwBgE0zXO

— Tyler Nettuno (@TylerNettuno) April 27, 2024

 


Apparently, Haynes was talking shit to him and he lost his temper.


This twitter user seemed to think that meant Jefferson has that dawg in him, but I'm not sure I agree haha.


I do think the media would have liked the pick more if we took Jefferson though. He was definitely the consensus better player.

Sure hope that wasn’t Mims blocking him.

[Clark W Griswold]

(05-01-2024, 10:46 PM)TKUHL Wrote: Sure hope that wasn’t Mims blocking him.

That wasn’t Mims

And that’s a stupid penalty if he does that in a game.
Not sure what kind of NFL player he will be but I don’t why that would excite Jags fans because all that video showed was a guy with no pass rush moves getting blocked

[puddycat]

I guess i don't accept your premise that OT, DT and WR were biggest needs. The worst PFF scores were FS, CB2, LG, and RT. They fixed RT and FS in free agency, and lost their NT and WR3. So I would have also been OK with CB, LG, NT and WR.
1: Quinyon Mitchell CB
2) Fisher/Rosengarten OT (This pick was always a problem as 1st round talent lasted until the early second and 2nd round talent was thin. Does trading the pick, the fourth, and a 6th get them to #44: JPJ?)
3a) Chris Haynes G
3b)Troy Franklin (or Burton could still be here)

[EatonFan]

(05-02-2024, 08:21 PM)puddycat Wrote: I guess i don't accept your premise that OT, DT and WR were biggest needs.  The worst PFF scores were FS, CB2, LG, and RT.  They fixed RT and FS in free agency, and lost their NT and WR3.  So I would have also been OK with CB, LG, NT and WR.
1: Quinyon Mitchell CB
2) Fisher/Rosengarten OT (This pick was always a problem as 1st round talent lasted until the early second and 2nd round talent was thin. Does trading the pick, the fourth, and a 6th get them to #44: JPJ?)
3a) Chris Haynes G
3b)Troy Franklin (or Burton could still be here)

I actually thought they would take Mitchell when he fell to 18th.

[*ochocincos*]

(05-02-2024, 08:21 PM)puddycat Wrote: I guess i don't accept your premise that OT, DT and WR were biggest needs.  The worst PFF scores were FS, CB2, LG, and RT.  They fixed RT and FS in free agency, and lost their NT and WR3.  So I would have also been OK with CB, LG, NT and WR.
1: Quinyon Mitchell CB
2) Fisher/Rosengarten OT (This pick was always a problem as 1st round talent lasted until the early second and 2nd round talent was thin. Does trading the pick, the fourth, and a 6th get them to #44: JPJ?)
3a) Chris Haynes G
3b)Troy Franklin (or Burton could still be here)

People also need to give the draft picks more than 1 season to develop before completely relegating them to bench and using a premium early draft pick on another the same position.
People are giving up on Turner and Hill way too soon, IMO.
If they end up actually being good this year, Bengals could essentially have wasted a 1st or 2nd rounder on a CB if they had spent one on that position this draft.

As much as RT, TE, and WR might be covered for 2024, all those guys are set to hit FA next year. They need guys planned to replace, and they like to bring in guys a season ahead of time to develop before taking over. Same with DT.

As much as we may not want to admit, Volson is signed through 2025 and likely isn't being replaced.
Although we did just see team decide to bring in Geno Stone in place of Hill after only one season of Hill starting.
Personally, I'd replace Volson with a proven LG like Dalton Risner who should come cheap.

[Bilbo Saggins]

1.  Graham Barton
2.  Patrick Paul
3.  DeWayne Carter
3.  Devontez Walker
4.  Audric Estime
5.  Josh Newton
6.  Jaden Crumedy
6.  Cedric Johnson
7.  Myles Cole
7.  Matt Lee

We'll never know what trade options were available.  The Bengals were 4 picks away from picking the potentially "safer" RT/OG Fuanga and 3 picks away from having their pick of the litter of defensive players in this draft.  IF it was an option to trade say a 4th to move into either of those spots...well maybe they let a better opportunity slip through their fingers.  I'm warming on the Mims pick and hope that he'll be a fine player.  I still don't see any problem with saying that he exudes elevated bust potential.  Does he have attractive qualities?  For sure.  He sounds great in interviews.  He sounds like he wants to prove his toughness.  For a team that's built like the Bengals they didn't really need to swing for the fences at 18.  I like the Jenkins pick but if they didn't go OT in one the second round was probably their last shot at a promising starter.  To me the success of the draft hinges on how Mims and Burton perform.  IF Mims can't stay on the field and IF Burton is actually closer to a 4th or a 5th round type of prospect(how NFL.com and BleacherReport.com graded him) than a "first round talent", THEN I think that ownership has no choice but to re-evaluate their personnel department.  I mean like clean house if this draft doesn't pan out.  At least shake up the department and no longer employ the fewest scouts. They drafted well in 2020 when they blew for Burrow.  They drafted at least one good player when they chunked for Chase.  It's time to prove that this team can draft consistently.  If they can't...well Burrow shouldn't be treated to a forced relegation to being the next Marino.  There's no reason for it. Bust after bust in the first round in recent history. A long history of not building a complete O-line. Let's see some evolution.

[*ochocincos*]

(05-08-2024, 05:35 AM)Bilbo Saggins Wrote: I'm warming on the Mims pick and hope that he'll be a fine player

I'm also because of Trent Brown brought in as a 1-year stopgap.
If the Bengals needed a rookie to come in and start immediately and play well, I would have thought too risky to take Mims.
But Mims gets up to a year to groom, and his limited tape does look great.
This pick will hear it from everywhere though if he doesn't come out swinging next year or rides the bench beyond this year.
Bengals need some immediate hitters eventually to really get back to that Super Bowl caliber after losing guys like Reader and Boyd.

[*bfine32*]

(05-01-2024, 12:12 PM)CJD Wrote: I didn't know this about Jordan Jefferson before the draft, but apparently he had an incident where he ripped off a player's helmet and swung it around following a 1 on 1 drill where he got beat. 

Jaguars are getting an absolute dog in Jordan Jefferson pic.twitter.com/JNwBgE0zXO

— Tyler Nettuno (@TylerNettuno) April 27, 2024

 


Apparently, Haynes was talking shit to him and he lost his temper.


This twitter user seemed to think that meant Jefferson has that dawg in him, but I'm not sure I agree haha.


I do think the media would have liked the pick more if we took Jefferson though. He was definitely the consensus better player.

I didn't see JJ getting beat in the clip provided. looked like the Olineman was on skates getting pushed into the QB. Also looks like Haynes gave him an extra shove after the whistle. 

[CJD]

(05-08-2024, 05:06 PM)bfine32 Wrote: I didn't see JJ getting beat in the clip provided. looked like the Olineman was on skates getting pushed into the QB. Also looks like Haynes gave him an extra shove after the whistle. 

In 1 on 1s, the defender's goal is generally to get by the OL player. And the OL player dropped his anchor pretty effectively at the end. The "QB" wasn't touched.

Regardless, whether he was beat or not, swinging helmets is not an ideal response to a drill.

[*bfine32*]

(05-08-2024, 05:44 PM)CJD Wrote: In 1 on 1s, the defender's goal is generally to get by the OL player. And the OL player dropped his anchor pretty effectively at the end. The "QB" wasn't touched.

Regardless, whether he was beat or not, swinging helmets is not an ideal response to a drill.

We can disagree and that's fine. But dude is well on his way to being the next Aaron Donald 

[puddycat]

(05-06-2024, 12:34 PM)ochocincos Wrote: People also need to give the draft picks more than 1 season to develop before completely relegating them to bench and using a premium early draft pick on another the same position.

No, they don't.  Drafting is about getting the best players available who can help your team play on game day.
Starting a drafted player that plays significantly below average for their position doesn't mean that the team got value.  It means that the team can't draft or sign enough good players.  Also, picking a player to sit them on the bench means the team isn't getting value either.  And whether they are injured, developing, or just not good enough doesn't matter.

[*ochocincos*]

(05-13-2024, 05:53 PM)puddycat Wrote: No, they don't.  Drafting is about getting the best players available who can help your team play on game day.
Starting a drafted player that plays significantly below average for their position doesn't mean that the team got value.  It means that the team can't draft or sign enough good players.  Also, picking a player to sit them on the bench means the team isn't getting value either.  And whether they are injured, developing, or just not good enough doesn't matter.

But not all players will be able to hit the ground running in their first year of playing.
Some (Most) take multiple years.

What if the player you selected on Day 2 ends up really coming along in Year 3, but you decided to already invest another early pick into that position because that player didn't play great in Year 1?
Now you could have potentially 2 really good players for 1 spot, thereby forcing one of them to the bench, and ultimately "wasting" that draft pick that could have instead gone to another position of better value.

I realize hindsight is 20/20, but you don't want to give up on a draft pick too soon.
I realize that does incur some risk because a player may not come along, but add a stopgap veteran if you need/want rather than using another valuable early draft pick.
That's my stance and approach, anyway.